#WaveAnalysis
#CADCHF reversed from support level 0.679
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6916
CADCHF today reversed up from the key support level 0.679 (which has been stopping all downward impulses from December).
The support zone near the support level 0.679 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.
Given the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator, CADCHF can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.6916.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#CADCHF reversed from support level 0.679
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6916
CADCHF today reversed up from the key support level 0.679 (which has been stopping all downward impulses from December).
The support zone near the support level 0.679 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.
Given the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator, CADCHF can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.6916.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis
#NZDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.6460
• Likely to fall to support level 0.6300
NZDUSD recently reversed down from the major resistance level 0.6460 (which has been reversing this currency pair from August).
The resistance level 0.6460 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.9% Fibonacci retracement of the strong downtrend from last April.
Given the clear daily downtrend, NZDUSD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.6300.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#NZDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.6460
• Likely to fall to support level 0.6300
NZDUSD recently reversed down from the major resistance level 0.6460 (which has been reversing this currency pair from August).
The resistance level 0.6460 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.9% Fibonacci retracement of the strong downtrend from last April.
Given the clear daily downtrend, NZDUSD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.6300.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis
#Palladium reversed from major support level 1675.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1840.00
Palladium today reversed up from the major support level 1675.00 (which has been revering the price from the end of 2019, as can be seen below).
The support zone near the support level 1675.00 was strengthened by the lower weekly Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the support level 1675.00 and the bullish sentiment seen across the precious metal markets today, Palladium can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1840.00.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#Palladium reversed from major support level 1675.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1840.00
Palladium today reversed up from the major support level 1675.00 (which has been revering the price from the end of 2019, as can be seen below).
The support zone near the support level 1675.00 was strengthened by the lower weekly Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the support level 1675.00 and the bullish sentiment seen across the precious metal markets today, Palladium can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1840.00.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
The cryptocurrency market has added 0.75% in the last 24 hours to 976bn, with Bitcoin rising by the same amount, testing $21K again.
The first cryptocurrency has corrected to 76.4% of the rally from December lows to this week's highs. It cannot be ruled out that this is the end of the shakeout. Such shallow pullbacks are normal for strong bull markets in stocks or other assets. Confirmation that Bitcoin, with the crypto market, is once again bullish will be a recent high of $21.6K, clearing the way for $24.6K 161.8% Fibonacci, where the 200-week moving average also passes.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
The first cryptocurrency has corrected to 76.4% of the rally from December lows to this week's highs. It cannot be ruled out that this is the end of the shakeout. Such shallow pullbacks are normal for strong bull markets in stocks or other assets. Confirmation that Bitcoin, with the crypto market, is once again bullish will be a recent high of $21.6K, clearing the way for $24.6K 161.8% Fibonacci, where the 200-week moving average also passes.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#Gold has made an impressive rally in the last 11 weeks, adding 19.9% from early November lows to this morning's highs at $1937. While maintaining a bullish outlook on gold, we focus on short-term overbought and a high chance of correction.
Late last year, gold turned upwards after getting methodical support on declines under the 200-week moving average, correcting half of the gains from the lows of 2018 to the 2020 and 2022 peaks.
Fundamentally, gold was pulled down by an appreciating dollar and a tightening of US monetary policy.
A 20% rally from the lows will allow us to name it a new bull market for gold, suggesting further gains. We saw similar situations in late 2002 and 2008 and the second half of 2018. This historical proximity sets up a further multi-year rally in gold with a renewal of historical highs above 2630 – 161.8% of initial climbing from 2018 to 2020.
Late last year, gold turned upwards after getting methodical support on declines under the 200-week moving average, correcting half of the gains from the lows of 2018 to the 2020 and 2022 peaks.
Fundamentally, gold was pulled down by an appreciating dollar and a tightening of US monetary policy.
A 20% rally from the lows will allow us to name it a new bull market for gold, suggesting further gains. We saw similar situations in late 2002 and 2008 and the second half of 2018. This historical proximity sets up a further multi-year rally in gold with a renewal of historical highs above 2630 – 161.8% of initial climbing from 2018 to 2020.
Often, the market needs short-term corrections to get fuel for gains, allowing it to lock in profits and join the movement on a pullback. And such a pullback seems to be imminent.
During the four weeks since December 19, the amplitude of the move-up was also increasing. But this movement lost momentum this week. Despite the new price high, the RSI on the daily chart has stalled just on the verge of an overbought area. We had seen something similar at the beginning of the rally, when the powerful momentum of early November wore off by the middle of the month, taking the gold back from $1785 to $1735 – perfectly within the Fibonacci retracement pattern.
A repeat of this pattern from the highs set earlier this morning ($1937) would suggest a return to the $1860 area. This is also where the local tops of June are concentrated, which adds to the importance of support. The gold could be there by the end of the month and return to the upside as early as February.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
During the four weeks since December 19, the amplitude of the move-up was also increasing. But this movement lost momentum this week. Despite the new price high, the RSI on the daily chart has stalled just on the verge of an overbought area. We had seen something similar at the beginning of the rally, when the powerful momentum of early November wore off by the middle of the month, taking the gold back from $1785 to $1735 – perfectly within the Fibonacci retracement pattern.
A repeat of this pattern from the highs set earlier this morning ($1937) would suggest a return to the $1860 area. This is also where the local tops of June are concentrated, which adds to the importance of support. The gold could be there by the end of the month and return to the upside as early as February.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis
#Nikkei225 broke resistance level 26500.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 27000.00
Nikkei 225 index continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 26500.00 (which stopped the previous waves 4 and (1)).
The breakout of the resistance level 26500.00 coincided with the breakout of the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from December.
Nikkei 225 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 27000.00 (former monthly low from November).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#Nikkei225 broke resistance level 26500.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 27000.00
Nikkei 225 index continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 26500.00 (which stopped the previous waves 4 and (1)).
The breakout of the resistance level 26500.00 coincided with the breakout of the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from December.
Nikkei 225 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 27000.00 (former monthly low from November).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
👍1
#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY reversed from support level 137.90
• Likely to rise to resistance level 142.60
EURJPY recently reversed up from the support level 137.90 (former monthly low from September), intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 137.90 created the second consecutive Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line.
EURJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 142.60 (which stopped the previous waves 4 and (B)).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#EURJPY reversed from support level 137.90
• Likely to rise to resistance level 142.60
EURJPY recently reversed up from the support level 137.90 (former monthly low from September), intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 137.90 created the second consecutive Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line.
EURJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 142.60 (which stopped the previous waves 4 and (B)).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis
#CHFJPY reversed from support level 138.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 142.50
CHFJPY recently reversed up from the key support level 138.00 (which has been revering the price from June), intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the daily down channel from September.
The upward reversal from the support level 138.00 started the active primary impulse wave ③.
CHFJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 142.50 (previous minor reversal high).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#CHFJPY reversed from support level 138.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 142.50
CHFJPY recently reversed up from the key support level 138.00 (which has been revering the price from June), intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the daily down channel from September.
The upward reversal from the support level 138.00 started the active primary impulse wave ③.
CHFJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 142.50 (previous minor reversal high).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
Britons tighten their belts
UK retail sales fell by 1% in December, excluding fuel by 1.1%. The data surprised analysts who had, on average, expected an increase of 0.5% last month. Sales were 5.8% lower than in the same month a year earlier, when they were 0.7% below December 2020.
The retail sales index has been on a downward trend since April 2021 and, in that time, has returned to pre-pandemic levels, breaking a natural multi-year upward trend with such a sharp decline that Britain did not even see during the Great Recession. Other reports from the Office for National Statistics also point to a steady decline in industrial production, although it is smoother now than in some episodes from 2007 to 2011.
Surprisingly, the labour market remains strong. A similar picture can be seen in the USA, for which we received news earlier this week. In both countries, central bankers are signalling further rate hikes and preparing for a "mild recession".
UK retail sales fell by 1% in December, excluding fuel by 1.1%. The data surprised analysts who had, on average, expected an increase of 0.5% last month. Sales were 5.8% lower than in the same month a year earlier, when they were 0.7% below December 2020.
The retail sales index has been on a downward trend since April 2021 and, in that time, has returned to pre-pandemic levels, breaking a natural multi-year upward trend with such a sharp decline that Britain did not even see during the Great Recession. Other reports from the Office for National Statistics also point to a steady decline in industrial production, although it is smoother now than in some episodes from 2007 to 2011.
Surprisingly, the labour market remains strong. A similar picture can be seen in the USA, for which we received news earlier this week. In both countries, central bankers are signalling further rate hikes and preparing for a "mild recession".
This similarity in macroeconomic conditions makes the GBPUSD dynamics a tug-of-war. However, there are more downside risks in the pair now, given how it has stalled on the approach to the highs of December and the pressure on the stock indices with which the pound has a direct correlation. GBPUSD may correct into the 1.20-1.21 range before the end of the month. This would return the pound to a test of its 200-day average, where it could either get support from long-term buyers or return to the downtrend.
👍2
#Bitcoin is up 7.7% over the past week, trading at $22.7K on Monday morning. Ethereum added less - only 4.1% to $1640. Other leading altcoins in the top 10 have gained between 0.4% (BNB) and 12.7% (Shiba Inu). The exception was Polygon (-1.8%).
The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 5.1% to $1.045 trillion during the week. The bitcoin rally pulled up the entire crypto market.
Like in the good old days, the crypto market is feeding off the rise in stock indices but growing ahead of the curve. Moreover, at the expense of reduced liquidity, the price surpassed $23K for the first time since August last year.
Bitcoin has started a new bull market and is headed for $24.8K, where the psychologically important 200-week moving average and the 161.8% Fibonacci level of the momentum from the December lows are concentrated. The 50-week MA is headed to the same area. The market may need a long recharge and consolidation before a new upside wave begins.
The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 5.1% to $1.045 trillion during the week. The bitcoin rally pulled up the entire crypto market.
Like in the good old days, the crypto market is feeding off the rise in stock indices but growing ahead of the curve. Moreover, at the expense of reduced liquidity, the price surpassed $23K for the first time since August last year.
Bitcoin has started a new bull market and is headed for $24.8K, where the psychologically important 200-week moving average and the 161.8% Fibonacci level of the momentum from the December lows are concentrated. The 50-week MA is headed to the same area. The market may need a long recharge and consolidation before a new upside wave begins.
Euro rally's last ditch
The EURUSD reached 1.09 early Monday, its highest level since April last year. A strong uptrend has been in place for the past four months, during which time the pair has risen from lows just above 0.95 to the current level of 1.0915, or +14.5%. While the overall uptrend in the pair is probably a long-term story, signs of accumulated fatigue need to be recharged.
On the daily EURUSD chart, the Relative Strength Index has been flirting with the overbought territory since mid-November. However, shallow and short-lived (three days) corrections have erased local overbought conditions. Such corrections have given the market room to grow.
The EURUSD reached 1.09 early Monday, its highest level since April last year. A strong uptrend has been in place for the past four months, during which time the pair has risen from lows just above 0.95 to the current level of 1.0915, or +14.5%. While the overall uptrend in the pair is probably a long-term story, signs of accumulated fatigue need to be recharged.
On the daily EURUSD chart, the Relative Strength Index has been flirting with the overbought territory since mid-November. However, shallow and short-lived (three days) corrections have erased local overbought conditions. Such corrections have given the market room to grow.
However, the market has now approached overbought conditions on the weekly chart. This often signals commodities and equity markets to prepare for a reversal. However, in the case of the EURUSD, touching the overbought/oversold area is just a strong enough signal for a correction in a couple of weeks, but not necessarily for a long-term reversal, so there is no point in looking too far ahead.
The market's focus on better-than-expected Eurozone data was a significant driver for the pair. The chances of avoiding a recession have been boosted by the hawkish tone of ECB officials, who have signalled that they will raise interest rates in 50-point increments at the next two meetings. Consumer confidence is also expected to improve thanks to lower energy prices and signs of easing inflationary pressures.
However, in our view, markets have been too dismissive of the Fed's signals that it is prepared for a prolonged fight against inflation rather than settling for a short-term victory.
The market's focus on better-than-expected Eurozone data was a significant driver for the pair. The chances of avoiding a recession have been boosted by the hawkish tone of ECB officials, who have signalled that they will raise interest rates in 50-point increments at the next two meetings. Consumer confidence is also expected to improve thanks to lower energy prices and signs of easing inflationary pressures.
However, in our view, markets have been too dismissive of the Fed's signals that it is prepared for a prolonged fight against inflation rather than settling for a short-term victory.
Fed officials have been saying they are prepared to raise rates further than the market expects and will not cut in 2023. But the markets are still betting on rate cuts before the end of the year.
We saw a similar divergence between expectations and the Fed's stance in June and August 2022, leading to a fresh wave of equity sell-offs and a rise in the dollar. Something similar now is brewing.
If we are right and a medium-term correction from 1.09 begins, it can take the pair below 1.06 (76.4% of the rally from the September lows). A deeper correction could take EURUSD back to 1.0400-1.0450.
The lower boundary of the range is the 61.8% retracement, while upper is the 50-week MA. A consolidation below it would call into question that the euro entered a long-term bull market in the last quarter of last year - when the news background was especially dramatic.
We saw a similar divergence between expectations and the Fed's stance in June and August 2022, leading to a fresh wave of equity sell-offs and a rise in the dollar. Something similar now is brewing.
If we are right and a medium-term correction from 1.09 begins, it can take the pair below 1.06 (76.4% of the rally from the September lows). A deeper correction could take EURUSD back to 1.0400-1.0450.
The lower boundary of the range is the 61.8% retracement, while upper is the 50-week MA. A consolidation below it would call into question that the euro entered a long-term bull market in the last quarter of last year - when the news background was especially dramatic.
👍1
👍3
#WaveAnalysis
#AUDUSD reversed from support level 0.6885
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.7060
AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed up with the daily Bullish Engulfing from the key support level 0.6885 (previous monthly high from the start of December).
The support level 0.6885 was further strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from the middle of December.
AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.7060 (top of the previous daily shooting star from last week).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#AUDUSD reversed from support level 0.6885
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.7060
AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed up with the daily Bullish Engulfing from the key support level 0.6885 (previous monthly high from the start of December).
The support level 0.6885 was further strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from the middle of December.
AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.7060 (top of the previous daily shooting star from last week).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis
#CADJPY reversed from support level 96.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 98.00
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 96.00 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of December) intersecting with the daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 96.00 created the daily Hammer – which stopped the earlier impulse waves 5 and (C).
CADJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 98.00 (top of the earlier sharp reversal pivot from last week).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#CADJPY reversed from support level 96.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 98.00
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 96.00 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of December) intersecting with the daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 96.00 created the daily Hammer – which stopped the earlier impulse waves 5 and (C).
CADJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 98.00 (top of the earlier sharp reversal pivot from last week).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
Deceptive oil growth
Oil briefly topped $82.50 per barrel WTI on Monday, testing the highs seen in the second half of November. The bulls are betting that China's lifting of restrictions will boost global demand for commodities and energy.
Although the US became the largest oil exporter at the end of last year, commercial inventories were 8.3% higher last week than a year earlier. Production growth over the same period was barely above 5%.
Drilling activity data released on Friday evening showed a further decline in the number of oil wells to 613, down from a peak of 627 just over a month ago. This is a slight dip but an apparent stagnation from the lower levels we saw at the peaks in early 2019 (just under 900) or late 2014 (around 1600).
Oil briefly topped $82.50 per barrel WTI on Monday, testing the highs seen in the second half of November. The bulls are betting that China's lifting of restrictions will boost global demand for commodities and energy.
Although the US became the largest oil exporter at the end of last year, commercial inventories were 8.3% higher last week than a year earlier. Production growth over the same period was barely above 5%.
Drilling activity data released on Friday evening showed a further decline in the number of oil wells to 613, down from a peak of 627 just over a month ago. This is a slight dip but an apparent stagnation from the lower levels we saw at the peaks in early 2019 (just under 900) or late 2014 (around 1600).