#WaveAnalysis #SP500
S&P 500 reversed from key support level 3570.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 3800.00
S&P 500 index recently reversed up with the daily Bullish Engulfing from the key support level 3570.00 (which stopped the price at the start of October) standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 3570.00 started the active short-term corrective wave 2.
Given the improving risk sentiment globally and the clear divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 3800.00 (top of earlier daily Evening Star from the start of this month).
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S&P 500 reversed from key support level 3570.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 3800.00
S&P 500 index recently reversed up with the daily Bullish Engulfing from the key support level 3570.00 (which stopped the price at the start of October) standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 3570.00 started the active short-term corrective wave 2.
Given the improving risk sentiment globally and the clear divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 3800.00 (top of earlier daily Evening Star from the start of this month).
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#WaveAnalysis
#AUDJPY reversed from key support level 91.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 94.70
AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed up with the daily hammer from the key support level 91.00 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of May) standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band, support trendline of the daily up channel from September and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.
The upward reversal from the support level 91.00 started the active medium-term impulse wave (3).
AUDJPY can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 94.70 (top of wave B from the start of this month).
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#AUDJPY reversed from key support level 91.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 94.70
AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed up with the daily hammer from the key support level 91.00 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of May) standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band, support trendline of the daily up channel from September and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.
The upward reversal from the support level 91.00 started the active medium-term impulse wave (3).
AUDJPY can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 94.70 (top of wave B from the start of this month).
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#Bitcoin is back at $19.3K, which has been the case for seven of the last eight mornings. Attempts to build on the upside have again been met with increased selling. A perfect month-long flat has led us to see the rate lose 1.5% in 24 hours, add 0.8% in 7 days and 2.4% in 30 days. Ethereum trades near $1300, losing 2.4% in 24 hours, but is up 0.65% in 7 days.
That seemed impossible, but Bitcoin found room to move further into the corner of the triangle, pulling back from its upper boundary, and the 50-day moving average acts as resistance now. All this suggests that the financial world is waiting for other clear signals, ready for a strong move in either direction.
That said, we continue to be inclined to believe that the exit from this lull will be up rather than down - the decline has been too long and too much negativity is already embedded in prices.
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That seemed impossible, but Bitcoin found room to move further into the corner of the triangle, pulling back from its upper boundary, and the 50-day moving average acts as resistance now. All this suggests that the financial world is waiting for other clear signals, ready for a strong move in either direction.
That said, we continue to be inclined to believe that the exit from this lull will be up rather than down - the decline has been too long and too much negativity is already embedded in prices.
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UK’s inflation sluggish slowdown
The portion of the UK inflation data showed that the problem is in no hurry to recede. The consumer price index returned to 10.1% y/y, changing hopes that the trend had already reversed. The retail price index is climbing further upwards, reaching 12.6%. The contribution of food to inflation has already exceeded the impact of transport costs.
Excluding these volatile components, the acceleration continues, with the core CPI rising to 6.5% compared to 6.3% the previous month. UK’s Retail Price Index at 12.6% y/y was last seen in March 1981. However, producer prices signal an easing of inflationary pressures, albeit not as quickly as previously hoped.
The portion of the UK inflation data showed that the problem is in no hurry to recede. The consumer price index returned to 10.1% y/y, changing hopes that the trend had already reversed. The retail price index is climbing further upwards, reaching 12.6%. The contribution of food to inflation has already exceeded the impact of transport costs.
Excluding these volatile components, the acceleration continues, with the core CPI rising to 6.5% compared to 6.3% the previous month. UK’s Retail Price Index at 12.6% y/y was last seen in March 1981. However, producer prices signal an easing of inflationary pressures, albeit not as quickly as previously hoped.
Input PPI has slowed to 20% from 20.9% a month earlier and peaked at 24.2% in June. Output PPI inflation slowed to 15.9% after peaking at 17% in July. The persistent downward trend in exchange prices for agricultural and energy products has reinforced disinflationary trends all these months.
The higher inflation trajectory is creating pressure on the Bank of England to take even more steps to raise rates. The Bank of England's recent statements about its willingness to move to quantitative tightening from November and its reluctance to stretch out its emergency government bond-buying programme show that the central bank is indeed concerned about inflationary pressures.
The higher inflation trajectory is creating pressure on the Bank of England to take even more steps to raise rates. The Bank of England's recent statements about its willingness to move to quantitative tightening from November and its reluctance to stretch out its emergency government bond-buying programme show that the central bank is indeed concerned about inflationary pressures.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Brent crude oil reversed from resistance level 95.00
• Likely to fall to support level 86.00
Brent crude oil recently reversed down from the resistance level 95.00 (which has been reversing the price from September), coinciding with the daily down channel from July, upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from June.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 95.00 started the active medium-term ABC wave (2).
Brent crude oil can be expected to fall toward the next support level 86.00 (target for the completion of the active ABC correction (2)).
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#Brent crude oil reversed from resistance level 95.00
• Likely to fall to support level 86.00
Brent crude oil recently reversed down from the resistance level 95.00 (which has been reversing the price from September), coinciding with the daily down channel from July, upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from June.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 95.00 started the active medium-term ABC wave (2).
Brent crude oil can be expected to fall toward the next support level 86.00 (target for the completion of the active ABC correction (2)).
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURNZD reversed from resistance level 1.7500
• Likely to fall to support level 1.7200
EURNZD recently reversed down from the key resistance level 1.7500 (top of the sideways price range inside which the pair has been trading from the end of last month), intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.7500 started the active short-term corrective wave (iv).
EURNZD can be expected to fall toward the next support level 1.7200 (lower boundary of this price range).
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#EURNZD reversed from resistance level 1.7500
• Likely to fall to support level 1.7200
EURNZD recently reversed down from the key resistance level 1.7500 (top of the sideways price range inside which the pair has been trading from the end of last month), intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.7500 started the active short-term corrective wave (iv).
EURNZD can be expected to fall toward the next support level 1.7200 (lower boundary of this price range).
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Gold is down more than 1% on Wednesday and 5.5% in the last two weeks. Declining almost daily over the previous two weeks, it wiped away nearly all its gains of the recent rally, going back to levels of $1630. The technical picture looks contradictory, with something for both bulls and bears.
Last week, gold returned under the 200-week moving average, signalling that the bears are still in control of the long-term trend in the metal. The last time we saw a similar technical pattern was in 2013. The analogy is reinforced by the fact that there were several years of solid gold price increases in response to the recession, rate cuts and QE. This was followed by a correction and a false attempt to push gold to renewed highs. But the economic slowdown played against the demand for the precious metal.
At that time, a renewed failure under the 200-week mark was followed by an absolute surrender, which took 18% off the price within seven weeks. The bearish trend finally died out two and a half years later.
Last week, gold returned under the 200-week moving average, signalling that the bears are still in control of the long-term trend in the metal. The last time we saw a similar technical pattern was in 2013. The analogy is reinforced by the fact that there were several years of solid gold price increases in response to the recession, rate cuts and QE. This was followed by a correction and a false attempt to push gold to renewed highs. But the economic slowdown played against the demand for the precious metal.
At that time, a renewed failure under the 200-week mark was followed by an absolute surrender, which took 18% off the price within seven weeks. The bearish trend finally died out two and a half years later.
Despite the frightening similarity in the weekly chart, there are differences from what happened ten years prior. Back then, the price of gold reached the bottom on the day of the first Fed rate hike, but not this time around.
On the daily candlestick charts, the rally in gold was stopped by the 50-day MA, which has acted as resistance more than once since April of this year. However, the bullish divergence between the price and the RSI remains in force, indicating that the bearish momentum is locally exhausted.
Should gold close this week below its 200-week average, which is now near $1680, the chances of a bearish scenario would increase sharply. In the recent history of free-floating, gold has fallen 18-30% after falling below the 200-week average. Translated to our prices, that implies a downside potential to $1350 or down to $1150, where the first level coincides with the upper bound of the 2013-2018 trading range and the lower level is near the lows of that same prolonged range.
On the daily candlestick charts, the rally in gold was stopped by the 50-day MA, which has acted as resistance more than once since April of this year. However, the bullish divergence between the price and the RSI remains in force, indicating that the bearish momentum is locally exhausted.
Should gold close this week below its 200-week average, which is now near $1680, the chances of a bearish scenario would increase sharply. In the recent history of free-floating, gold has fallen 18-30% after falling below the 200-week average. Translated to our prices, that implies a downside potential to $1350 or down to $1150, where the first level coincides with the upper bound of the 2013-2018 trading range and the lower level is near the lows of that same prolonged range.
#Bitcoin stays under pressure, slipping to $18.9K in low-liquid trading in Asia on Thursday morning, recovering to $19K by the start of the European session.
Volatility remains compressed, allowing BTCUSD to cramp further into the corner of the triangle. A formal confirmation of an exit from the triangle we will get with a move above the previous highs (now near $19.7K) or a dip below $18.8K. According to tech analysis textbooks, a sustained move out of this range will significantly increase volatility and potentially form at least a mid-term trend.
Arcane Research noted that many on-chain indicators signalled that Bitcoin had reached the bottom of the bear market. According to experts, the current values of the indicators "shows an attractive entry point for investors."
Volatility remains compressed, allowing BTCUSD to cramp further into the corner of the triangle. A formal confirmation of an exit from the triangle we will get with a move above the previous highs (now near $19.7K) or a dip below $18.8K. According to tech analysis textbooks, a sustained move out of this range will significantly increase volatility and potentially form at least a mid-term trend.
Arcane Research noted that many on-chain indicators signalled that Bitcoin had reached the bottom of the bear market. According to experts, the current values of the indicators "shows an attractive entry point for investors."
#WaveAnalysis
#Palladium reversed from support level 2000.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 2150.00
Palladium recently reversed up from the round support level 2000.00 (which is the lower border of the sideways price range inside which the price has been moving from August).
The support level 2000.00 was father strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from June.
Palladium can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 2150.00 (middle of this price range).
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#Palladium reversed from support level 2000.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 2150.00
Palladium recently reversed up from the round support level 2000.00 (which is the lower border of the sideways price range inside which the price has been moving from August).
The support level 2000.00 was father strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from June.
Palladium can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 2150.00 (middle of this price range).
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#WaveAnalysis
#Gold reversed from support level 1652.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1675.00
Gold recently reversed up from the key support level 1652.00 (which stopped the previous impulse wave (i) at the end of September), intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1652.00 stopped the earlier short-term impulse waves (iii) and 3.
Given the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic, Gold can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1675.00.
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#Gold reversed from support level 1652.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1675.00
Gold recently reversed up from the key support level 1652.00 (which stopped the previous impulse wave (i) at the end of September), intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1652.00 stopped the earlier short-term impulse waves (iii) and 3.
Given the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic, Gold can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1675.00.
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#WaveAnalysis
#USDCHF under bearish pressure
• Likely to fall to support level 0.9930
USDCHF under the bearish pressure after the price reversed down from the major resistance level 1.0050 (which stopped all upward impulses from the middle of May).
The resistance level 1.0050 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from August.
USDCHF can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.9930 (which reversed the price earlier this month).
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#USDCHF under bearish pressure
• Likely to fall to support level 0.9930
USDCHF under the bearish pressure after the price reversed down from the major resistance level 1.0050 (which stopped all upward impulses from the middle of May).
The resistance level 1.0050 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from August.
USDCHF can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.9930 (which reversed the price earlier this month).
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#Bitcoin is trading near $19K on Friday morning, losing 0.5% overnight. It hovered between $18.9K and $19.3K on Thursday, remaining pinned closer to the lower end of its trading range due to pressure in the US equity market and gold at the close of trading in New York.
Bitcoin has closed lower for three consecutive days, but the bears have not yet decided to storm the support of the last four months. So far, we have seen an inertial retreat of cryptocurrencies amid a melting demand for risky assets (gold and equities) due to rising US interest rates.
Cryptocurrencies have been selling bitcoin for the past few months, reducing their reserves to a three-year low, according to a Santiment report. It was only last week that the whales changed tactics and began returning to cold-storing BTC.
Hashrate Index notes that public miners sold fewer bitcoins than they mined for the first time since May, in August and September. The market continued to pressure miners’ financial strength throughout the third quarter.
Bitcoin has closed lower for three consecutive days, but the bears have not yet decided to storm the support of the last four months. So far, we have seen an inertial retreat of cryptocurrencies amid a melting demand for risky assets (gold and equities) due to rising US interest rates.
Cryptocurrencies have been selling bitcoin for the past few months, reducing their reserves to a three-year low, according to a Santiment report. It was only last week that the whales changed tactics and began returning to cold-storing BTC.
Hashrate Index notes that public miners sold fewer bitcoins than they mined for the first time since May, in August and September. The market continued to pressure miners’ financial strength throughout the third quarter.
No news is good enough for oil now
Oil failed on Thursday in another attempt to return to an upward trend. Overall sales wiped out the surge in the first half of the day at the end of the day. This market dynamic is a clear sign that the market is driving the price down and all news from the supply side, from OPEC+ cuts to falling US inventories, form nothing more than a bear market rally.
Published data showed a 1.7m barrel drop in commercial stocks last week versus an expected increase of 2.5m. Commercial inventory levels are now 2.5% higher than precisely a year ago, preventing us from saying that America has solved the oil issue.
OPEC+ quota cuts and a very sluggish pace of production recovery in the US are causing Biden's open displeasure. According to the latest figures, around 12m BPD is now being produced - which is the average of the last six months, i.e., there has been no significant progress here.
Oil failed on Thursday in another attempt to return to an upward trend. Overall sales wiped out the surge in the first half of the day at the end of the day. This market dynamic is a clear sign that the market is driving the price down and all news from the supply side, from OPEC+ cuts to falling US inventories, form nothing more than a bear market rally.
Published data showed a 1.7m barrel drop in commercial stocks last week versus an expected increase of 2.5m. Commercial inventory levels are now 2.5% higher than precisely a year ago, preventing us from saying that America has solved the oil issue.
OPEC+ quota cuts and a very sluggish pace of production recovery in the US are causing Biden's open displeasure. According to the latest figures, around 12m BPD is now being produced - which is the average of the last six months, i.e., there has been no significant progress here.
It is no coincidence that the stagnation in production coincides with the period of oil sales from reserves because it is not easy to get companies to ramp up production to reduce the final product’s price. That hardly works in a free market.
That is why Biden offered the industry both a stick and a carrot on Wednesday. He criticised oil companies for generous dividends and share buybacks instead of investing in production. However, oil producers, having fallen foul of the ESG agenda in previous years and the difficulty of financing new projects, prefer to return cash to shareholders rather than expand their oil and gas supply further.
It's not just the US; the UK's biggest lender, Lloyds, said on Thursday it would not support direct financing of oil and gas projects despite the energy crisis in Europe. Right now, fossil fuels are vital, but they generally retain the "dirty and toxic" label for investors.
That is why Biden offered the industry both a stick and a carrot on Wednesday. He criticised oil companies for generous dividends and share buybacks instead of investing in production. However, oil producers, having fallen foul of the ESG agenda in previous years and the difficulty of financing new projects, prefer to return cash to shareholders rather than expand their oil and gas supply further.
It's not just the US; the UK's biggest lender, Lloyds, said on Thursday it would not support direct financing of oil and gas projects despite the energy crisis in Europe. Right now, fossil fuels are vital, but they generally retain the "dirty and toxic" label for investors.
The carrot is a vital price benchmark: the intention to return to filling reserves when prices are below $70 a barrel. In the short term, oil has responded by rising, as the announced prices are close to the market. However, in the medium term, this buying intention will work for supply expansion and can bring prices closer to the stated $70.
As we can see, the upside momentum from the latest comments from US officials has been even shorter than the OPEC+ cuts, underlining the bearish nature of the move in the oil market. While the global economy slows and downside risks in America and Europe increase, we are unlikely to see anything more than a bear market rally.
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As we can see, the upside momentum from the latest comments from US officials has been even shorter than the OPEC+ cuts, underlining the bearish nature of the move in the oil market. While the global economy slows and downside risks in America and Europe increase, we are unlikely to see anything more than a bear market rally.
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#WaveAnalysis #NatGas
• Natural gas falling inside impulse wave (c)
• Likely to fall to support level 5.365
Natural gas continues to fall inside the short-term impulse wave (c) which previously broke the support level 6.500 (which stopped wave (i) in September) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward price move from January.
The active impulse wave (c) belongs to the ABC correction 2 from the middle of August.
Natural gas can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 5.365 (previous multi-month low from July and the target for the completion of the active impulse wave (c)).
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• Natural gas falling inside impulse wave (c)
• Likely to fall to support level 5.365
Natural gas continues to fall inside the short-term impulse wave (c) which previously broke the support level 6.500 (which stopped wave (i) in September) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward price move from January.
The active impulse wave (c) belongs to the ABC correction 2 from the middle of August.
Natural gas can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 5.365 (previous multi-month low from July and the target for the completion of the active impulse wave (c)).
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#WaveAnalysis
#USDJPY rising inside impulse wave (iii)
• Likely to test resistance level 152.50
USDJPY continues to rise inside the short-term impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the higher order impulse waves 3 and (5).
The pair earlier broke the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from March – which added to the bullish pressure on USDJPY.
Given the overriding daily uptrend, USDJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 152.50 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (iii)).
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#USDJPY rising inside impulse wave (iii)
• Likely to test resistance level 152.50
USDJPY continues to rise inside the short-term impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the higher order impulse waves 3 and (5).
The pair earlier broke the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from March – which added to the bullish pressure on USDJPY.
Given the overriding daily uptrend, USDJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 152.50 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (iii)).
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURGBP reversed from support level 0.8600
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8800
EURGBP currency pair recently reversed up with the daily Long-legged Doji from the pivotal support level 0.8600 (which has been reversing the pair from the middle of July), which stopped the previous wave C.
The support level 0.8600 was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.
Given the UK political uncertainty and the resultant sterling sales, EURGBP can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.8800.
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#EURGBP reversed from support level 0.8600
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8800
EURGBP currency pair recently reversed up with the daily Long-legged Doji from the pivotal support level 0.8600 (which has been reversing the pair from the middle of July), which stopped the previous wave C.
The support level 0.8600 was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.
Given the UK political uncertainty and the resultant sterling sales, EURGBP can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.8800.
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#Bitcoin rose 0.9% over the past week, finishing near $19.5K. The markets' reversal to growth on Friday afternoon and the pummeling on Sunday significantly contributed to this growth. However, the effect of the latter has been almost completely wiped out.
The 50-day moving average continues to effectively play its role as a resistance, triggering a new selling wave when it tries to go higher early on Monday. The price rally on Sunday formally took the quote outside the triangle, but we still need a confirmation of the upside exit. Such a confirmation signal should be a consolidation above the previous highs at $19.6K, which has so far failed.
Ethereum added 1.5% to $1330. Other leading altcoins from the top 10 showed mixed dynamics: from a 5.1% decline (Solana) to a 1.2% increase (Dogecoin).
Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 0.9% over the week to $933bn. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index fell 1 point over the week to 23 and remains in 'extreme fear'.
The 50-day moving average continues to effectively play its role as a resistance, triggering a new selling wave when it tries to go higher early on Monday. The price rally on Sunday formally took the quote outside the triangle, but we still need a confirmation of the upside exit. Such a confirmation signal should be a consolidation above the previous highs at $19.6K, which has so far failed.
Ethereum added 1.5% to $1330. Other leading altcoins from the top 10 showed mixed dynamics: from a 5.1% decline (Solana) to a 1.2% increase (Dogecoin).
Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 0.9% over the week to $933bn. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index fell 1 point over the week to 23 and remains in 'extreme fear'.
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