#WaveAnalysis
#GBPUSD reversed from key resistance level 1.2635
• Likely to fall to support level 1,2400
GBPUSD recently reversed down from the key resistance level 1.2635 (which stopped wave (iv) at the start of May) – standing close to the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse 3 from March.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.2635 started the active minor corrective wave (b).
Given the strong daily downtrend, GBPUSD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1,2400.
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#GBPUSD reversed from key resistance level 1.2635
• Likely to fall to support level 1,2400
GBPUSD recently reversed down from the key resistance level 1.2635 (which stopped wave (iv) at the start of May) – standing close to the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse 3 from March.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.2635 started the active minor corrective wave (b).
Given the strong daily downtrend, GBPUSD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1,2400.
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#WaveAnalysis #UK100
• FTSE 100 reversed from long-term resistance level 7630.00
• Likely to fall to support level 7400.00
FTSE 100 index recently reversed down from the long-term resistance level 7630.00 (which has been repeatedly reversing the index from January, as can be seen below).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 7630.00 stopped the previous minor corrective wave (ii).
Given the strength of the resistance level 7630.00 and the overbought reading on the daily Stochastic indicator, FTSE 100 can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 7400.00.
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• FTSE 100 reversed from long-term resistance level 7630.00
• Likely to fall to support level 7400.00
FTSE 100 index recently reversed down from the long-term resistance level 7630.00 (which has been repeatedly reversing the index from January, as can be seen below).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 7630.00 stopped the previous minor corrective wave (ii).
Given the strength of the resistance level 7630.00 and the overbought reading on the daily Stochastic indicator, FTSE 100 can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 7400.00.
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Downside sensitivity builds up in oil
Crude oil is down for a third consecutive day, having lost more than 2% earlier on Biden’s comments that the West might agree to buy Russian oil at a discount instead of an embargo.
In addition, the US media is reporting that Saudi Arabia will replace the oil that has left the market due to falling production in Russia. The Saudis officially deny such agreements. They also deny that they are willing to exclude Russia from the OPEC+ quota calculations as it cannot even come close to them.
We noted earlier in the week that news of a potential EU embargo on Russian oil was not accompanied by a logical rise in prices attributed to the “sell the facts” pattern.
However, the latest news outlines the features of a new reality, where the oil supply might not quickly and directly suffer. And this is working to cool the price, which recently touched an area of extremes.
Crude oil is down for a third consecutive day, having lost more than 2% earlier on Biden’s comments that the West might agree to buy Russian oil at a discount instead of an embargo.
In addition, the US media is reporting that Saudi Arabia will replace the oil that has left the market due to falling production in Russia. The Saudis officially deny such agreements. They also deny that they are willing to exclude Russia from the OPEC+ quota calculations as it cannot even come close to them.
We noted earlier in the week that news of a potential EU embargo on Russian oil was not accompanied by a logical rise in prices attributed to the “sell the facts” pattern.
However, the latest news outlines the features of a new reality, where the oil supply might not quickly and directly suffer. And this is working to cool the price, which recently touched an area of extremes.
Separately, the strengthened pull into the dollar is locally playing against oil. Upbeat macro data is boosting market confidence in further rate hikes in 50-point increments, tightening the financial conditions to which oil is so responsive.In our view, the bulls can no longer meaningfully push the price up. Positive news for oil is already priced in or has a limited impact in time and strength. Negative news, on the other hand, the market is working out very well.
Later today, US oil and gas inventory and production trends are worth looking at. If new data shows an increase in US production with moderate consumption, it could trigger a sell-off in oil. The opposite situation - stagnating production and rising inventories are unlikely to push the price to new levels.
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Later today, US oil and gas inventory and production trends are worth looking at. If new data shows an increase in US production with moderate consumption, it could trigger a sell-off in oil. The opposite situation - stagnating production and rising inventories are unlikely to push the price to new levels.
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Alarming ADP jobs report
In May, US companies added 128K new jobs, the ADP says. Market analysts, on average, expected a more than double increase.
A look inside the report is even more alarming. Very small (1-19 employees) and small companies (20-49 employees) lost 78K and 14K jobs, respectively. This is a clear signal that small companies are not coping with the changing economic landscape.
On the other hand, medium and large are building strength, with more opportunities to compete on wages and additional options.
Such a report raises cautions about Friday's official monthly jobs report. It makes sense for market participants to look for signs that the labour market has reached a boiling point and will cool down further. In this environment, the Fed’s hawkish attitude to fighting inflation may not be timely, actively deepening the hole into which the economy is sliding.
For markets, this means more headwinds for the dollar and stocks and more questions about the sustainability of the commodity rally.
In May, US companies added 128K new jobs, the ADP says. Market analysts, on average, expected a more than double increase.
A look inside the report is even more alarming. Very small (1-19 employees) and small companies (20-49 employees) lost 78K and 14K jobs, respectively. This is a clear signal that small companies are not coping with the changing economic landscape.
On the other hand, medium and large are building strength, with more opportunities to compete on wages and additional options.
Such a report raises cautions about Friday's official monthly jobs report. It makes sense for market participants to look for signs that the labour market has reached a boiling point and will cool down further. In this environment, the Fed’s hawkish attitude to fighting inflation may not be timely, actively deepening the hole into which the economy is sliding.
For markets, this means more headwinds for the dollar and stocks and more questions about the sustainability of the commodity rally.
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A bounce, but hardly the start of a rise in the crypto market
Bitcoin rose 2.4% to $30.5K in the past 24 hours. Ethereum added 0.2% to $1820. Ether was unexpectedly among the laggards. Altcoins from the top 10 rose from 1.5% (BNB) to 4.1% (Solana).
Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 1.8% overnight to $1.26 trillion. Bitcoin’s dominance index added 0.2% to 46.3%. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index was down 3 points to 10 by Friday and remains in “extreme fear”.
Bitcoin rebounded on Thursday after falling sharply the day before. The strengthening was helped by a weaker dollar and positive stock indexes. The local downtrend (former consolidation triangle from May 10) turned into a support line. For the short term, this is good news. However, it is worth remembering that this is a fragile structure that could be broken by both a stronger dollar and a market reaction to labour market news.
Bitcoin rose 2.4% to $30.5K in the past 24 hours. Ethereum added 0.2% to $1820. Ether was unexpectedly among the laggards. Altcoins from the top 10 rose from 1.5% (BNB) to 4.1% (Solana).
Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 1.8% overnight to $1.26 trillion. Bitcoin’s dominance index added 0.2% to 46.3%. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index was down 3 points to 10 by Friday and remains in “extreme fear”.
Bitcoin rebounded on Thursday after falling sharply the day before. The strengthening was helped by a weaker dollar and positive stock indexes. The local downtrend (former consolidation triangle from May 10) turned into a support line. For the short term, this is good news. However, it is worth remembering that this is a fragile structure that could be broken by both a stronger dollar and a market reaction to labour market news.
#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY broke key resistance level 138.15
• Likely to rise to resistance level 140.00
EURJPY recently broke the key resistance level 138.15 (which stopped waves (a) and (b) at the start of May).
The breakout the resistance level 138.15 accelerated the active minor impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the higher order impulse wave 3 from last month.
Given the clear daily uptrend – EURJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 140.00 (top of wave 1 from April).
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#EURJPY broke key resistance level 138.15
• Likely to rise to resistance level 140.00
EURJPY recently broke the key resistance level 138.15 (which stopped waves (a) and (b) at the start of May).
The breakout the resistance level 138.15 accelerated the active minor impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the higher order impulse wave 3 from last month.
Given the clear daily uptrend – EURJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 140.00 (top of wave 1 from April).
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPCAD reversed from key support level 1.5795
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.5970
GBPCAD recently reversed up from the key support level 1.5795 (which stopped wave (iii) in the middle of May) – standing close to the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.5795 stopped the earlier minor impulse wave (v) from the end of May.
GBPCAD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.5970 (former support from May).
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#GBPCAD reversed from key support level 1.5795
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.5970
GBPCAD recently reversed up from the key support level 1.5795 (which stopped wave (iii) in the middle of May) – standing close to the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.5795 stopped the earlier minor impulse wave (v) from the end of May.
GBPCAD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.5970 (former support from May).
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The Fed's quantitative tightening will further shift the balance to sellers
With the start of June, the Fed was due to start selling assets off the balance sheet. However, balance sheet values peaked at the beginning of April when they were 50 billion higher than the latest figures.
The S&P500 had turned downwards much earlier, in the early days of the year, but its downward movement accelerated precisely on the days of the Fed balance sheet peak. That was the start of one of the most extended series in the history of six back-to-back weekly declines.
This is fundamentally different from 2018, when the US equity market became more volatile, with several significant drawdowns but quick reversals to growth due to the solid macroeconomic fundamentals.
With the start of June, the Fed was due to start selling assets off the balance sheet. However, balance sheet values peaked at the beginning of April when they were 50 billion higher than the latest figures.
The S&P500 had turned downwards much earlier, in the early days of the year, but its downward movement accelerated precisely on the days of the Fed balance sheet peak. That was the start of one of the most extended series in the history of six back-to-back weekly declines.
This is fundamentally different from 2018, when the US equity market became more volatile, with several significant drawdowns but quick reversals to growth due to the solid macroeconomic fundamentals.
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The US labour market is no longer likely to push up inflation
The US economy increased the number of jobs by 390k in May, the fresh NFP showed, better than average expectations (325k) but worse than April's figures (436k). Total employment is only at 822k highs before the pandemic hit, and the labour market is increasingly bottoming out.
However, we point to a few spots that add to the arguments of those who see a reversal of the economic cycle.
The annual rate of wage growth has slowed down from 5.5% to 5.2% against an inflation rate of 8.3%. In other words, wages are hardly fuelling inflation in recent weeks.
Manufacturing, often the flagship of business cycles, added 18,000 jobs, three times weaker than in the previous two months, clearly losing momentum.
The US economy increased the number of jobs by 390k in May, the fresh NFP showed, better than average expectations (325k) but worse than April's figures (436k). Total employment is only at 822k highs before the pandemic hit, and the labour market is increasingly bottoming out.
However, we point to a few spots that add to the arguments of those who see a reversal of the economic cycle.
The annual rate of wage growth has slowed down from 5.5% to 5.2% against an inflation rate of 8.3%. In other words, wages are hardly fuelling inflation in recent weeks.
Manufacturing, often the flagship of business cycles, added 18,000 jobs, three times weaker than in the previous two months, clearly losing momentum.
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#WaveAnalysis #AAPL
• Apple reversed from resistance level 150.00
• Likely to fall to support level 140.00
Apple recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 150.00 (former multi-month low from March) intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from March.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 150.00 started the active minor correction (b).
Apple can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 140.00 (target price for the completion of the active minor correction (b)).
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• Apple reversed from resistance level 150.00
• Likely to fall to support level 140.00
Apple recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 150.00 (former multi-month low from March) intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from March.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 150.00 started the active minor correction (b).
Apple can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 140.00 (target price for the completion of the active minor correction (b)).
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#WaveAnalysis #C
• Citibank reversed from resistance level 54.00
• Likely to fall to support level 50.00
Citibank recently reversed down from the key resistance level 54.00 (the former monthly low from March and the monthly high from April).
The resistance zone near the resistance level 54.00 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from February.
Given the clear daily downtrend, Citibank can be expected to fall further toward the next round support level 50.00.
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• Citibank reversed from resistance level 54.00
• Likely to fall to support level 50.00
Citibank recently reversed down from the key resistance level 54.00 (the former monthly low from March and the monthly high from April).
The resistance zone near the resistance level 54.00 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from February.
Given the clear daily downtrend, Citibank can be expected to fall further toward the next round support level 50.00.
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#WaveAnalysis
#AUDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.7265
• Likely to fall to support level 0.7200
AUDUSD today reversed down exactly from the key resistance level 0.7265 (top of the previous minor correction (iv) from last month) intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse 1 from April and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.7265 stopped the earlier short-term upward impulse wave (i).
AUDUSD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.7200 (former minor resistance from the end of May).
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#AUDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.7265
• Likely to fall to support level 0.7200
AUDUSD today reversed down exactly from the key resistance level 0.7265 (top of the previous minor correction (iv) from last month) intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse 1 from April and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.7265 stopped the earlier short-term upward impulse wave (i).
AUDUSD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.7200 (former minor resistance from the end of May).
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Bitcoin's pump or the start of a rise? America's opening will show us
Bitcoin rose 3.1% over the past week, finishing near $30,000. Ethereum added 0.9%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 showed mixed dynamics, ranging from a 10.7% decline (Solana) to a 23.2% rise (Cardano).
The new week is off to a promising start. BTCUSD has added 4.6% in the last 24 hours, more than 4% since the start of the day and is again testing the $31.0K mark. Cryptocurrency investors were not spooked by Friday's market decline, as key stock indices were above the recent local lows and had been adding in recent hours.
The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 3.8% in 24 hours to $1.28 trillion, with the Bitcoin Dominance Index adding 0.2% over the same period to Friday's 46.5%.
By Monday, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index rose from 10 to 13 points. For about a month now, this indicator has been steadily below 20 - in a state of extreme fear.
Bitcoin rose 3.1% over the past week, finishing near $30,000. Ethereum added 0.9%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 showed mixed dynamics, ranging from a 10.7% decline (Solana) to a 23.2% rise (Cardano).
The new week is off to a promising start. BTCUSD has added 4.6% in the last 24 hours, more than 4% since the start of the day and is again testing the $31.0K mark. Cryptocurrency investors were not spooked by Friday's market decline, as key stock indices were above the recent local lows and had been adding in recent hours.
The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 3.8% in 24 hours to $1.28 trillion, with the Bitcoin Dominance Index adding 0.2% over the same period to Friday's 46.5%.
By Monday, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index rose from 10 to 13 points. For about a month now, this indicator has been steadily below 20 - in a state of extreme fear.
Gold is under pressure, although central banks are mostly buying
Gold lost 1% to $1850 on Friday, declining under pressure from the overall pull from risky assets. For short-term traders, it is also telling that this decline mostly erased the gains of the first few days of the month and prevented the rebound from turning into new upside momentum.
Gold came up against the resistance of sellers on Friday, as it did a fortnight ago, trying to move above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line from the highs of April near $2000 to the lows of May, below $1790.
The following potentially significant level is the $1840 area, where the 200-day moving average passes. In early June, the buyers prevented gold from getting below that line, but it makes sense to expect that the bears have entirely abandoned the idea of breaking below it.
It is also interesting that an increase in central bank buying accompanied the fall in the price of gold in April.
Gold lost 1% to $1850 on Friday, declining under pressure from the overall pull from risky assets. For short-term traders, it is also telling that this decline mostly erased the gains of the first few days of the month and prevented the rebound from turning into new upside momentum.
Gold came up against the resistance of sellers on Friday, as it did a fortnight ago, trying to move above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line from the highs of April near $2000 to the lows of May, below $1790.
The following potentially significant level is the $1840 area, where the 200-day moving average passes. In early June, the buyers prevented gold from getting below that line, but it makes sense to expect that the bears have entirely abandoned the idea of breaking below it.
It is also interesting that an increase in central bank buying accompanied the fall in the price of gold in April.
America does not want to produce oil
Oil was bought during the downturns on Thursday and Friday, with most buying activity taking place during the US trading session. On Thursday and Friday, buying in US trading took the price out of the initial drawdown, closing the day near intraday highs.
Interestingly, this did not trigger stop orders during Asian trading, indicating an impressive supply in Asia and Europe.
There is news that Saudi Arabia has raised selling prices for Asia next month. Typically this news causes a steady rise in quotations, but this time the opening spurt failed to hold, and at the time of writing, WTI and Brent are losing around 1.6% since the start of the day.
Weekly inventory and production data indicate that the US is in no hurry to ramp up production.
Oil was bought during the downturns on Thursday and Friday, with most buying activity taking place during the US trading session. On Thursday and Friday, buying in US trading took the price out of the initial drawdown, closing the day near intraday highs.
Interestingly, this did not trigger stop orders during Asian trading, indicating an impressive supply in Asia and Europe.
There is news that Saudi Arabia has raised selling prices for Asia next month. Typically this news causes a steady rise in quotations, but this time the opening spurt failed to hold, and at the time of writing, WTI and Brent are losing around 1.6% since the start of the day.
Weekly inventory and production data indicate that the US is in no hurry to ramp up production.
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPCHF reversed from round support level 1.2000
• Likely to reach resistance level 1.22
GBPCHF recently reversed up from the key round support level 1.2000 (which has been repeatedly reversing the pair from the end of May) .
The support zone near the support level 1.2000 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.
Having just broken above the key resistance 1.2110 (which has stopped all advances at the end of May), GBPCHF can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.22 (top of wave (ii) from last month).
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#GBPCHF reversed from round support level 1.2000
• Likely to reach resistance level 1.22
GBPCHF recently reversed up from the key round support level 1.2000 (which has been repeatedly reversing the pair from the end of May) .
The support zone near the support level 1.2000 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.
Having just broken above the key resistance 1.2110 (which has stopped all advances at the end of May), GBPCHF can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.22 (top of wave (ii) from last month).
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#WaveAnalysis
#CADJPY broke resistance level 102.00
• Likely to test resistance level 105.00
CADJPY recently broke above the strong resistance level 102.00 (which has been reversing the pair since the middle of April) .
The breakout of the resistance level 102.00 accelerated the active medium-term impulse wave (3) – which started earlier from the key support level 98.40.
Given the strong daily uptrend – CADJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 105.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)).
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#CADJPY broke resistance level 102.00
• Likely to test resistance level 105.00
CADJPY recently broke above the strong resistance level 102.00 (which has been reversing the pair since the middle of April) .
The breakout of the resistance level 102.00 accelerated the active medium-term impulse wave (3) – which started earlier from the key support level 98.40.
Given the strong daily uptrend – CADJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 105.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)).
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Bitcoin is unlikely to bottom so early and high
Bitcoin rose 4.9% on Monday, ending at around $31.5K. However, on Tuesday morning, the first cryptocurrency collapsed 7% to $29.5K, the second such bear attack in the past seven days. Both were of similar magnitude, but the latter should have a more considerable negative effect. It more than offset Monday's gains and temporarily brought the price back to levels from May 30.
The BTCUSD consolidation has been going on for more than a month. Earlier it was formed as a triangle with decreasing amplitude of fluctuations, but since the end of last month, it became more like a sideways pattern, from which it makes several failed attempts to break upwards.
The market dynamics this Tuesday morning are a reminder that the market cannot now rally again as it did in 2020.
Bitcoin rose 4.9% on Monday, ending at around $31.5K. However, on Tuesday morning, the first cryptocurrency collapsed 7% to $29.5K, the second such bear attack in the past seven days. Both were of similar magnitude, but the latter should have a more considerable negative effect. It more than offset Monday's gains and temporarily brought the price back to levels from May 30.
The BTCUSD consolidation has been going on for more than a month. Earlier it was formed as a triangle with decreasing amplitude of fluctuations, but since the end of last month, it became more like a sideways pattern, from which it makes several failed attempts to break upwards.
The market dynamics this Tuesday morning are a reminder that the market cannot now rally again as it did in 2020.
The market did not price in the RBA’s hawkish surprise, but it should
The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a hawkish surprise momentarily undervalued by the markets. The RBA raised the rate to 0.85%, immediately 50 points after a 0.25% hike last month and expectations for a repeat this time.
A big hike to curb inflation was backed by fast price growth by strong demand for Australian export. And it was just a repeat of such hikes in other advanced economies, including New Zealand.
The stronger-than-expected rate hike caused a legitimate initial surge of 0.8% in the first minute. But surprisingly, this move proved unsustainable, and the AUDUSD soon dipped below levels before the decision’s release.
From the chart, it is easy to see the sustained pressure on the Aussie for the third day after touching the 200-day average. This line was also a significant obstacle in early May, immediately after the reaction to the first policy tightening.
The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a hawkish surprise momentarily undervalued by the markets. The RBA raised the rate to 0.85%, immediately 50 points after a 0.25% hike last month and expectations for a repeat this time.
A big hike to curb inflation was backed by fast price growth by strong demand for Australian export. And it was just a repeat of such hikes in other advanced economies, including New Zealand.
The stronger-than-expected rate hike caused a legitimate initial surge of 0.8% in the first minute. But surprisingly, this move proved unsustainable, and the AUDUSD soon dipped below levels before the decision’s release.
From the chart, it is easy to see the sustained pressure on the Aussie for the third day after touching the 200-day average. This line was also a significant obstacle in early May, immediately after the reaction to the first policy tightening.
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Nevertheless, looking at the prospects for Australia from a fundamental analysis perspective makes it doubtful that a bearish success in the Aussie would be anything more than a local victory. The tone of the RBA comments suggests that we could see a repeat of today’s move in another month. Since the RBA meets 11 times a year, rather than 7–8 or 4 as in many developed countries, the pace of policy tightening is greater than that of the competition.
It is worth noting that the Australian monetary authority has more room to raise rates. Record commodity prices support economic activity (GDP added 0.8% QoQ and 3.3% YoY in Q1) and spur currency inflows into the country, increasing the room for manoeuvre for the central bank.
Today we see a repeat of the pattern as the currency market reacted to the sharp rate hike in New Zealand.
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It is worth noting that the Australian monetary authority has more room to raise rates. Record commodity prices support economic activity (GDP added 0.8% QoQ and 3.3% YoY in Q1) and spur currency inflows into the country, increasing the room for manoeuvre for the central bank.
Today we see a repeat of the pattern as the currency market reacted to the sharp rate hike in New Zealand.
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