#WaveAnalysis #FB
• Meta reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 327.00
Meta recently corrected up from the support zone lying between the key support level 307.00 (which has been reversing the price from last May) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The support zone near the support level 307.00 was strengthened by the nearby 50% Fibonacci correction of the sharp uptrend from the start of 2021.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Meta can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 327.00 (former support from the middle of December).
• Meta reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 327.00
Meta recently corrected up from the support zone lying between the key support level 307.00 (which has been reversing the price from last May) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The support zone near the support level 307.00 was strengthened by the nearby 50% Fibonacci correction of the sharp uptrend from the start of 2021.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Meta can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 327.00 (former support from the middle of December).
We saw the sixth consecutive bearish daily candlestick on Monday morning, and the price rolled back to $35K. The bears may well be able to sell the price down to $32.5K, closing the gap of July and returning the rate to last summer's support area.
Some observers point out that this is a worrying signal, suggesting further market declines, as we have not seen a final capitulation.
Events are developing in a bearish scenario, so far broadly repeating what we saw in 2018 in terms of overall sentiment. Long-term buyers can avoid buying at prices above 30k for bitcoin and 2k for ether.
We believe long-term investors will look out for purchases in the 20-30k per bitcoin area. Whether these purchases will be at the upper or lower boundary depends, among other things, on the situation in the stock markets. The return of buyers there will support the demand for risk among institutional investors. But as long as we see only steady selling from them, it is too early to talk about buying.
Some observers point out that this is a worrying signal, suggesting further market declines, as we have not seen a final capitulation.
Events are developing in a bearish scenario, so far broadly repeating what we saw in 2018 in terms of overall sentiment. Long-term buyers can avoid buying at prices above 30k for bitcoin and 2k for ether.
We believe long-term investors will look out for purchases in the 20-30k per bitcoin area. Whether these purchases will be at the upper or lower boundary depends, among other things, on the situation in the stock markets. The return of buyers there will support the demand for risk among institutional investors. But as long as we see only steady selling from them, it is too early to talk about buying.
Cryptocurrency market: a respite from the fall
The cryptocurrency market is adding 0.2% in the last 24 hours to $1.63 trillion, experiencing some pause or rebound after a prolonged drawdown. Buyer interest in cryptocurrencies came at the expense of a rebound in US equities, where selloff hunters thought their time had come.
The cryptocurrency market capitalisation without Bitcoin became less than 1 trillion last Saturday, and this round level now acts as near-term resistance.
Ether also saw a bounce yesterday towards the end of the day, making it clear that the market is far from surrendering. After seven days of collapse, the primary altcoin managed to close Monday with a tiny gain. Nevertheless, there are no signs of breaking the downtrend yet. Moreover, a death cross is also forming over the ether, as the 50-day moving average is now only a couple of days away from crossing the 200-day from the top down. This signal is often followed by a new bearish attack.
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The cryptocurrency market is adding 0.2% in the last 24 hours to $1.63 trillion, experiencing some pause or rebound after a prolonged drawdown. Buyer interest in cryptocurrencies came at the expense of a rebound in US equities, where selloff hunters thought their time had come.
The cryptocurrency market capitalisation without Bitcoin became less than 1 trillion last Saturday, and this round level now acts as near-term resistance.
Ether also saw a bounce yesterday towards the end of the day, making it clear that the market is far from surrendering. After seven days of collapse, the primary altcoin managed to close Monday with a tiny gain. Nevertheless, there are no signs of breaking the downtrend yet. Moreover, a death cross is also forming over the ether, as the 50-day moving average is now only a couple of days away from crossing the 200-day from the top down. This signal is often followed by a new bearish attack.
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Gold as a fragile hedge against a market drop
Gold is trading near $1840, adding 3.2% from the Jan 7 lows, as a hedge against increased financial market volatility.
At a point like this, we often see a divergence in the dynamics of gold and equities, which revives talk of a safe haven. The critical question for investors now is when there is a switch between a favourable decline for gold and a real fear triggering a circular sell-off in all assets.
We are looking at the performance of the yen and the franc. Both currencies are relatively protected from geopolitical risks on the Eurozone sidelines. So far, these currencies have moderately slid against the dollar, which suggests that we have not yet reached the point of reducing leverage.
The main near-term unknown is the outcome of Wednesday evening's Fed meeting. The central bank's statements and comments could determine the other trend of gold, supporting or, conversely, reversing the latest upside attempts.
Gold is trading near $1840, adding 3.2% from the Jan 7 lows, as a hedge against increased financial market volatility.
At a point like this, we often see a divergence in the dynamics of gold and equities, which revives talk of a safe haven. The critical question for investors now is when there is a switch between a favourable decline for gold and a real fear triggering a circular sell-off in all assets.
We are looking at the performance of the yen and the franc. Both currencies are relatively protected from geopolitical risks on the Eurozone sidelines. So far, these currencies have moderately slid against the dollar, which suggests that we have not yet reached the point of reducing leverage.
The main near-term unknown is the outcome of Wednesday evening's Fed meeting. The central bank's statements and comments could determine the other trend of gold, supporting or, conversely, reversing the latest upside attempts.
El Salvador may abandon Bitcoin
Bitcoin decreased 0.6% on Tuesday, ending the day around $36,600 while Ethereum lost 1.1%. Other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics: from a 7.4% decline of Terra to a 2.3% rise of Polkadot. According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank 1.1% to $1.74 trillion over the past day.
In total, the crypto market broke the recent days' decline after bitcoin hit lows of the last six months on Monday, dropping below $33,000. This was followed by a sharp rebound upwards to $37,500. The US market was the reason.
Throughout January, stocks are falling in anticipation of the Fed's monetary policy tightening. The decline in risky assets also had a negative impact on bitcoin, which has already lost about 20% since the beginning of the month.
Bitcoin decreased 0.6% on Tuesday, ending the day around $36,600 while Ethereum lost 1.1%. Other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics: from a 7.4% decline of Terra to a 2.3% rise of Polkadot. According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank 1.1% to $1.74 trillion over the past day.
In total, the crypto market broke the recent days' decline after bitcoin hit lows of the last six months on Monday, dropping below $33,000. This was followed by a sharp rebound upwards to $37,500. The US market was the reason.
Throughout January, stocks are falling in anticipation of the Fed's monetary policy tightening. The decline in risky assets also had a negative impact on bitcoin, which has already lost about 20% since the beginning of the month.
Euro and pound are the potential victims of dollar growth
The US dollar has been gaining steadily against the developed countries' currencies since the beginning of the year. By the way, the yen was an exception: it has been adding 1.8% over the past 11 days after the stock market entered the turbulence zone due to a reassessment of the monetary policy outlook.
Among the developed and liquid currencies, three scenarios can be considered. The first way is to sell EURUSD. The euro is weaker than the dollar due to the ECB being on several steps behind the Fed. That means that the EU rates will remain lower for a longer period of time, and the balance of bond yields will be shifted towards the dollar. Given the pace the Fed intends to take in tightening monetary policy, this yield gap promises to widen further.
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The US dollar has been gaining steadily against the developed countries' currencies since the beginning of the year. By the way, the yen was an exception: it has been adding 1.8% over the past 11 days after the stock market entered the turbulence zone due to a reassessment of the monetary policy outlook.
Among the developed and liquid currencies, three scenarios can be considered. The first way is to sell EURUSD. The euro is weaker than the dollar due to the ECB being on several steps behind the Fed. That means that the EU rates will remain lower for a longer period of time, and the balance of bond yields will be shifted towards the dollar. Given the pace the Fed intends to take in tightening monetary policy, this yield gap promises to widen further.
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📣Will the Fed shake the markets?
Don't miss FOMC Meeting today!
📍What is the FOMC?
📍When does the Fed meeting take place?
📍How does the FOMC affect the market?
📍How to monitor the news like a pro?
Visit the dedicated page on the FxPro website for information:
👉🏻 https://www.fxpro.com/fomc 👈🏻
Be prepared for increased volatility!
Don't miss FOMC Meeting today!
📍What is the FOMC?
📍When does the Fed meeting take place?
📍How does the FOMC affect the market?
📍How to monitor the news like a pro?
Visit the dedicated page on the FxPro website for information:
👉🏻 https://www.fxpro.com/fomc 👈🏻
Be prepared for increased volatility!
How the Fed sent Bitcoin down
Bitcoin decreased by 0.6% on Wednesday, ending the day at around $36,400. Ethereum added 0.2%, while other top-ten altcoins mostly saw declines from 3.1% (Binance Coin) to 6.6% (Terra, an outsider of the day).
According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 0.5%, to $1.73 trillion.
Bitcoin showed positive dynamics all day against the backdrop of growing stock indices. Up until the Fed meeting, the first cryptocurrency was gaining over 6%, hitting 5-day highs above $38,800. However, BTC began to fall almost immediately after the announcement of the results of the Fed's two-day meeting.
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Bitcoin decreased by 0.6% on Wednesday, ending the day at around $36,400. Ethereum added 0.2%, while other top-ten altcoins mostly saw declines from 3.1% (Binance Coin) to 6.6% (Terra, an outsider of the day).
According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 0.5%, to $1.73 trillion.
Bitcoin showed positive dynamics all day against the backdrop of growing stock indices. Up until the Fed meeting, the first cryptocurrency was gaining over 6%, hitting 5-day highs above $38,800. However, BTC began to fall almost immediately after the announcement of the results of the Fed's two-day meeting.
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Roller coaster of the ruble: is it already at the bottom?
The rate of the Russian currency reached 80.40 per dollar and 90.70 per euro yesterday after the close of the regular session. However, from these levels, the ruble seemed attractive for purchases. This brought the price back down from the psychologically significant round marks.
The dollar was temporarily near peak levels, from where it has been unfolding since the end of 2014. Of course, the fact that the ruble previously went up from 80 does not allow one to blindly hope that the same will happen this time.
However, it is a good reason to closely monitor the dynamics of the Russian currency, as well as the rhetoric of officials and the central bank when approaching these levels.
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The rate of the Russian currency reached 80.40 per dollar and 90.70 per euro yesterday after the close of the regular session. However, from these levels, the ruble seemed attractive for purchases. This brought the price back down from the psychologically significant round marks.
The dollar was temporarily near peak levels, from where it has been unfolding since the end of 2014. Of course, the fact that the ruble previously went up from 80 does not allow one to blindly hope that the same will happen this time.
However, it is a good reason to closely monitor the dynamics of the Russian currency, as well as the rhetoric of officials and the central bank when approaching these levels.
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Cryptocurrencies are under attack
On Thursday, Bitcoin lost 0.4%, ending the day around $36,200, and Ethereum fell 2.5%. The other leading altcoins in the top ten also mostly saw declines, from XRP down 0.9% to Terra with -8.3%. According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 2.3% per day, to $1.72 trillion.
Bitcoin tried to strengthen on Thursday morning but began to decline in the American session along with US stock indices. The US stock market fell following the results of trading on Thursday, although it opened with growth. The high-tech Nasdaq suffered particularly heavy losses.
Investors continue to withdraw from US stocks amid the expected tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
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On Thursday, Bitcoin lost 0.4%, ending the day around $36,200, and Ethereum fell 2.5%. The other leading altcoins in the top ten also mostly saw declines, from XRP down 0.9% to Terra with -8.3%. According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 2.3% per day, to $1.72 trillion.
Bitcoin tried to strengthen on Thursday morning but began to decline in the American session along with US stock indices. The US stock market fell following the results of trading on Thursday, although it opened with growth. The high-tech Nasdaq suffered particularly heavy losses.
Investors continue to withdraw from US stocks amid the expected tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
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The dollar is only halfway up
The US dollar rewrote its 1.5-year highs on Thursday, sending EURUSD under 1.1150. After the FOMC meeting, the pair fell in total by 1.5%, leaving a two-month consolidation with a sharp movement.
Friday's small rollback from extremes is likely a local profit fixation by the end of the week and month.
History suggests that the US currency begins to add about 2-3 quarters before the first rate hike and continues to be in positive territory for about the same time after.
We believe that this long story should be adjusted to the new reality in which interest rates are the starting point.
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The US dollar rewrote its 1.5-year highs on Thursday, sending EURUSD under 1.1150. After the FOMC meeting, the pair fell in total by 1.5%, leaving a two-month consolidation with a sharp movement.
Friday's small rollback from extremes is likely a local profit fixation by the end of the week and month.
History suggests that the US currency begins to add about 2-3 quarters before the first rate hike and continues to be in positive territory for about the same time after.
We believe that this long story should be adjusted to the new reality in which interest rates are the starting point.
📣Trade responsibly at fxpro.com 👈🏻
What awaits the ruble: an equation with unknowns
The Russian ruble rolled back yesterday with a sharp movement from the iconic round levels. Such a reversal often signifies the end of the previous trend and the beginning of a new movement.
If you look at USDRUB only as a course chart, then the corrective momentum has the potential to return the pair to 75 from the current 78 over the next couple of weeks.
Seasonality, or rather the macroeconomic environment, is also turning towards the ruble. Exporters will have to convert last year's record earnings to pay taxes, some of which are paid once a year. The weakening of the ruble since the beginning of the year is a good opportunity to add interest to profits due to exchange rate differences.
This is all in addition to record oil prices for 8 years and the suspension of foreign currency purchases for the Finance Ministry.
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The Russian ruble rolled back yesterday with a sharp movement from the iconic round levels. Such a reversal often signifies the end of the previous trend and the beginning of a new movement.
If you look at USDRUB only as a course chart, then the corrective momentum has the potential to return the pair to 75 from the current 78 over the next couple of weeks.
Seasonality, or rather the macroeconomic environment, is also turning towards the ruble. Exporters will have to convert last year's record earnings to pay taxes, some of which are paid once a year. The weakening of the ruble since the beginning of the year is a good opportunity to add interest to profits due to exchange rate differences.
This is all in addition to record oil prices for 8 years and the suspension of foreign currency purchases for the Finance Ministry.
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Crypto weekly review
Bitcoin gained 7.3% over the past week, ending last week near $37,700. Ethereum added 7%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 showed mixed dynamics: from a decline of 25% over the week (Terra) to a rise of 4.6% (Binance Coin). Terra's collapse is linked to the scandal surrounding the Wonderland DeFi protocol.
The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, rose 1.7% to $1.79 trillion for the week.
The week didn't start encouragingly for bitcoin. The first cryptocurrency updated six-month lows below $33,000, but BTC sharply redeemed the short-term fall amid an equally sharp rebound in US stock indices.
The US stock market interrupted last week's decline and rose for the first time after three weeks of decline.
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Bitcoin gained 7.3% over the past week, ending last week near $37,700. Ethereum added 7%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 showed mixed dynamics: from a decline of 25% over the week (Terra) to a rise of 4.6% (Binance Coin). Terra's collapse is linked to the scandal surrounding the Wonderland DeFi protocol.
The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, rose 1.7% to $1.79 trillion for the week.
The week didn't start encouragingly for bitcoin. The first cryptocurrency updated six-month lows below $33,000, but BTC sharply redeemed the short-term fall amid an equally sharp rebound in US stock indices.
The US stock market interrupted last week's decline and rose for the first time after three weeks of decline.
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❤1
Brent consolidates around $85-105
Oil has added more than 14% this month, and Brent spot contracts are trading near $90 a barrel.
Steady strengthening has been underway for the past two months after it became clear that the widespread Omicron strain is not leading to new travel restrictions.
The November correction in oil served the bulls well by unloading the market from an overhang of bullish positions. We now see a resistance breakout, which has reversed oil twice before, in 2018 and 2021.
On the fundamental analysis side, we also see a short-term bullish picture for oil. The Americans continue to ramp up drilling activity, bringing the number of working rigs to 610 last week. However, this is still not enough to significantly accelerate production.
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Oil has added more than 14% this month, and Brent spot contracts are trading near $90 a barrel.
Steady strengthening has been underway for the past two months after it became clear that the widespread Omicron strain is not leading to new travel restrictions.
The November correction in oil served the bulls well by unloading the market from an overhang of bullish positions. We now see a resistance breakout, which has reversed oil twice before, in 2018 and 2021.
On the fundamental analysis side, we also see a short-term bullish picture for oil. The Americans continue to ramp up drilling activity, bringing the number of working rigs to 610 last week. However, this is still not enough to significantly accelerate production.
📣Trade responsibly at fxpro.com 👈🏻
Major stock earnings to watch this week!🔝
Coming up this week, amongst several others, are the quarterly reports for some of the biggest companies in the world right now by market cap: Meta Platforms (Facebook), Amazon.com, Alphabet (Google), Alibaba Group Holding and Exxon Mobil Corp.
🔜Coming up first before the US market opens today is Alibaba
📅Check out the full calendar of upcoming earning releases and company dividends on our new and improved Earnings calendar to see the dates and any changes to margin requirements:
https://www.fxpro.com/trading-tools/earnings-calendar
⚠️Be prepared for higher volatility!
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Coming up this week, amongst several others, are the quarterly reports for some of the biggest companies in the world right now by market cap: Meta Platforms (Facebook), Amazon.com, Alphabet (Google), Alibaba Group Holding and Exxon Mobil Corp.
🔜Coming up first before the US market opens today is Alibaba
📅Check out the full calendar of upcoming earning releases and company dividends on our new and improved Earnings calendar to see the dates and any changes to margin requirements:
https://www.fxpro.com/trading-tools/earnings-calendar
⚠️Be prepared for higher volatility!
👉Register: https://bit.ly/3n8rYtz & Trade thousands of #stock CFDs responsibly with FxPro.com
German inflation surprise good for EUR
Today we have seen the first slowdown in annual inflation in seven months, but the data is better than expected.
In January, consumer prices rose 0.4%, up 4.9% on the same month a year earlier. Analysts, on average, were expecting prices to fall by 0.2% and slow inflation to 4.3% YoY.
The harmonized price index (adjusted for tax changes) shows an even more significant gap between expectations and reality. The index rose by 0.9% (a fall of 0.4% was expected).
The figures clearly show that inflation has penetrated deeper into the economy and is increasingly taking on the features of permanent price increases.
Sustained inflation raises the expectation that the ECB will also tighten its rhetoric and proceed with policy tightening more quickly than previously promised.
The markets have priced in one rate hike of 0.25% by December. But with the Fed as an example, we can see how quickly things can change. These changes should be positive for the euro.
Today we have seen the first slowdown in annual inflation in seven months, but the data is better than expected.
In January, consumer prices rose 0.4%, up 4.9% on the same month a year earlier. Analysts, on average, were expecting prices to fall by 0.2% and slow inflation to 4.3% YoY.
The harmonized price index (adjusted for tax changes) shows an even more significant gap between expectations and reality. The index rose by 0.9% (a fall of 0.4% was expected).
The figures clearly show that inflation has penetrated deeper into the economy and is increasingly taking on the features of permanent price increases.
Sustained inflation raises the expectation that the ECB will also tighten its rhetoric and proceed with policy tightening more quickly than previously promised.
The markets have priced in one rate hike of 0.25% by December. But with the Fed as an example, we can see how quickly things can change. These changes should be positive for the euro.
#WaveAnalysis #BABA
Alibaba reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 135.90
Alibaba recently reversed up with two Dojis from the support zone lying between the key support level 116.00 (which has been reversing the pair from the start of December) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the earlier minor impulse wave 3.
Given the strength of the aforementioned support zone – Alibaba can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 135.90 (which stopped the previous waves (2) and 2).
Alibaba reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 135.90
Alibaba recently reversed up with two Dojis from the support zone lying between the key support level 116.00 (which has been reversing the pair from the start of December) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the earlier minor impulse wave 3.
Given the strength of the aforementioned support zone – Alibaba can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 135.90 (which stopped the previous waves (2) and 2).
#WaveAnalysis
#Gold reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1810.00
Gold recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the key support level 1780.00 (which reversed the pair at the start of January) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the earlier minor corrective wave (ii).
Given the strength of the aforementioned support zone – Gold can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1810.00 (former support from the middle of January).
#Gold reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1810.00
Gold recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the key support level 1780.00 (which reversed the pair at the start of January) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the earlier minor corrective wave (ii).
Given the strength of the aforementioned support zone – Gold can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1810.00 (former support from the middle of January).
What will happen to bitcoin in February?
Bitcoin lost about 17% in January, declining for the third month in a row. Meanwhile, February is seen as a more successful month for the first cryptocurrency in historical data.
Over the past 11 years, BTC has strengthened on eight occasions and only declined on three. The average gain over the eight years was 31%. If bitcoin shows a similar rise in February, it will end the month just above the $50,000 round mark.
On a historical basis, bitcoin has rarely declined for more than three months in a row. There have only been three such instances: in 2011, 2014 and during the crypto-winter in 2018. All this increases the chances of a BTC rebound in February.
On the chart, bitcoin remains within a down channel, but thanks to the rebound, it has made it to the upper end of the corridor over the past week. A consolidation above 39,000 would be the first signal of a trend break, while the ability to develop a rise above 40,000 could instill even more confidence in buyers.
Bitcoin lost about 17% in January, declining for the third month in a row. Meanwhile, February is seen as a more successful month for the first cryptocurrency in historical data.
Over the past 11 years, BTC has strengthened on eight occasions and only declined on three. The average gain over the eight years was 31%. If bitcoin shows a similar rise in February, it will end the month just above the $50,000 round mark.
On a historical basis, bitcoin has rarely declined for more than three months in a row. There have only been three such instances: in 2011, 2014 and during the crypto-winter in 2018. All this increases the chances of a BTC rebound in February.
On the chart, bitcoin remains within a down channel, but thanks to the rebound, it has made it to the upper end of the corridor over the past week. A consolidation above 39,000 would be the first signal of a trend break, while the ability to develop a rise above 40,000 could instill even more confidence in buyers.
New support level in gold
The latest FOMC comments have seen the price drop more than $70, from around $1850 to $1780. It looks like the latest level is a new steppingstone, which has withstood the bears' attack since the second half of December.
Prior to that, $1680 in March 2021, $1725 in August, $1760 in November and December were the impassable support levels. Buyers have activated on the declines towards $1780 since the last days of last year, and the return to that level late last week was also accompanied by increased buying.
At the same time, it is too early to talk about signs of a rally, and it is better to wait for local technical signals. One of those signals might be a fixation above $1805, through which the 200-day moving average passes.
Even more reliable is to wait for the 50-day (now at $1801) to return above the 200-day, which will give a "golden cross" signal.
The latest FOMC comments have seen the price drop more than $70, from around $1850 to $1780. It looks like the latest level is a new steppingstone, which has withstood the bears' attack since the second half of December.
Prior to that, $1680 in March 2021, $1725 in August, $1760 in November and December were the impassable support levels. Buyers have activated on the declines towards $1780 since the last days of last year, and the return to that level late last week was also accompanied by increased buying.
At the same time, it is too early to talk about signs of a rally, and it is better to wait for local technical signals. One of those signals might be a fixation above $1805, through which the 200-day moving average passes.
Even more reliable is to wait for the 50-day (now at $1801) to return above the 200-day, which will give a "golden cross" signal.