DST ends in Europe this weekend 🕒
📅Due to the end of Daylight Savings Time in the EU on the 31st of October, there will be some temporary changes to the trading schedule for next week.
You can find the schedule here: https://www.fxpro.com/trading-tools/market-holidays
👉Trade CFDs responsibly with FxPro.com
📅Due to the end of Daylight Savings Time in the EU on the 31st of October, there will be some temporary changes to the trading schedule for next week.
You can find the schedule here: https://www.fxpro.com/trading-tools/market-holidays
👉Trade CFDs responsibly with FxPro.com
From the US session until the beginning of active trading in Europe, the first cryptocurrency steadily traded below $60K but jumped above this round level from the start of the European session. Nevertheless, for the week, the coin is losing almost 10%. If we are seeing a local bottom now, the news is good enough.
Some believe what is happening is a quick balancing process and preparation before the push for new highs. Others think it’s the beginning of a broader correction that will take BTC to $45K-$50K. In case Bitcoin falls to these lows, both these optimists and pessimists will buy.
Ethereum’s blockchain has received another update, and although the final phases of the roadmap are still a long way off, it is always seen positively by crypto market participants. Despite the retreat from the highs, the second cryptocurrency is holding above $4K.
Bitcoin’s dominance index is at a comfortable value of about 44.5%, reflecting the broad demand across the crypto market.
Some believe what is happening is a quick balancing process and preparation before the push for new highs. Others think it’s the beginning of a broader correction that will take BTC to $45K-$50K. In case Bitcoin falls to these lows, both these optimists and pessimists will buy.
Ethereum’s blockchain has received another update, and although the final phases of the roadmap are still a long way off, it is always seen positively by crypto market participants. Despite the retreat from the highs, the second cryptocurrency is holding above $4K.
Bitcoin’s dominance index is at a comfortable value of about 44.5%, reflecting the broad demand across the crypto market.
Several altcoins stood out firmly and are now at the centre of the news agenda. We are talking about the confrontation between the two meme tokens, Dogecoin and Shiba Inu. At one point, SHIBA INU’s capitalisation exceeded $50 billion, pushing XRP out of 7th place on CoinMarketCap. Of course, such episodes of growth are followed by a correction. Nevertheless, the situation is quite remarkable. The community considers SHIBA INU to be the “killer” of Dogecoin. But the crypto market space is quite enough for these two projects to coexist in harmony, with speculators switching from one to the other.
Another bright hero of the last few days was a 1inch token, which at some point jumped in price by 100% within a day. The coin got help from such fundamental factors as listing on the Upbit exchange and increased user activity.
As before, the crypto market continues to generate lightning-fast success stories attracting more investors to the sector, hoping to make quick and big money.
Another bright hero of the last few days was a 1inch token, which at some point jumped in price by 100% within a day. The coin got help from such fundamental factors as listing on the Upbit exchange and increased user activity.
As before, the crypto market continues to generate lightning-fast success stories attracting more investors to the sector, hoping to make quick and big money.
#EURGBP reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8500
EURGBP today reversed up from the support zone lying at the intersection of the support level 0.8420 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of October), lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the daily down channel from April.
The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star.
Given the strength of the support level 0.8420 and the rising bullish euro sentiment , EURGBP can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.8500.
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8500
EURGBP today reversed up from the support zone lying at the intersection of the support level 0.8420 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of October), lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the daily down channel from April.
The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star.
Given the strength of the support level 0.8420 and the rising bullish euro sentiment , EURGBP can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.8500.
#PhilipMorris reversed from strong support level 94.45
• Likely to rise to resistance level 97.00
Philip Morris today reversed up from the strong support level 94.45 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of July), strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 94.45 stopped the previous impulse waves 3 and (C).
Given the strength of the support level 94.45 and the clear daily uptrend, Philip Morris can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 97.00.
• Likely to rise to resistance level 97.00
Philip Morris today reversed up from the strong support level 94.45 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of July), strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 94.45 stopped the previous impulse waves 3 and (C).
Given the strength of the support level 94.45 and the clear daily uptrend, Philip Morris can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 97.00.
#UPS reversed from multi-month resistance level 219.00
• Likely to fall to support level 205.00
UPS continues to fall after the price reversed down from the multi-month resistance level 219.00 (which stopped the previous shaper uptrend at the start of May) – which started the active correction 2.
The resistance zone near the resistance level 219.00 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger band.
Given the strength of the resistance level 219.00, UPS can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 205.00.
• Likely to fall to support level 205.00
UPS continues to fall after the price reversed down from the multi-month resistance level 219.00 (which stopped the previous shaper uptrend at the start of May) – which started the active correction 2.
The resistance zone near the resistance level 219.00 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger band.
Given the strength of the resistance level 219.00, UPS can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 205.00.
Markets continue to strengthen in anticipation of higher interest rates. The FedWatch tool shows that futures are laying a 72% chance of a rate hike by June 2022, up from 23% just a month earlier.
The odds of the rate remaining at current levels until the end of 2022 are a paltry 4%, and the markets now consider the most likely scenario to be two hikes before the end of next year.
Interestingly, this shift in interest rate expectations does not appear to fuel a rise in the Dollar, nor does it stop the strengthening in the equity market. However, investors and traders should remember that markets are irrational in the short term but exceptionally rational in the long term. In this case, a sustained rise in short-term rates acts as a severe headwind to equities and commodities, although their prices may rise for a while.
The odds of the rate remaining at current levels until the end of 2022 are a paltry 4%, and the markets now consider the most likely scenario to be two hikes before the end of next year.
Interestingly, this shift in interest rate expectations does not appear to fuel a rise in the Dollar, nor does it stop the strengthening in the equity market. However, investors and traders should remember that markets are irrational in the short term but exceptionally rational in the long term. In this case, a sustained rise in short-term rates acts as a severe headwind to equities and commodities, although their prices may rise for a while.
The US dollar came under pressure on Thursday, rewriting monthly lows on the DXY index.
It is worth noting that the Dollar has not yet crossed the line, continuing to receive support on a slide towards the 50-day moving average. This support could turn out to be the starting point for a new impulse for the Dollar to rise, as it was in September.
Additionally, it is worth paying attention to how the American markets are closing the regular session where selling dominated for the previous three days. This signals that market professionals are locking in gains in equities, despite mostly upbeat corporate earnings reports.
On the other hand, traders may not give too much importance to these worrying signs until the comments of the Fed or even until the publication of the US jobs report next week. The situation could change dramatically in the light of new data. One thing is sure - the coming week set to be nerve-racking and volatile.
It is worth noting that the Dollar has not yet crossed the line, continuing to receive support on a slide towards the 50-day moving average. This support could turn out to be the starting point for a new impulse for the Dollar to rise, as it was in September.
Additionally, it is worth paying attention to how the American markets are closing the regular session where selling dominated for the previous three days. This signals that market professionals are locking in gains in equities, despite mostly upbeat corporate earnings reports.
On the other hand, traders may not give too much importance to these worrying signs until the comments of the Fed or even until the publication of the US jobs report next week. The situation could change dramatically in the light of new data. One thing is sure - the coming week set to be nerve-racking and volatile.
A trend of rising short-term bond yields is developing worldwide. It promises to be a stiff test for developing countries from Brazil to Turkey, whose currencies remain vulnerable despite severe weakening in recent weeks.
The Brazilian Real has lost 15% against the Dollar in the past four months as investors withdrew money from an economy where inflation has risen faster than the key interest rate. In recent months, the Brazilian central bank was forced to stretch out the tightening cycle to avoid an unnecessary shock to the economy. But simultaneously, rising interest rates, inflation, a falling currency, and logistical problems have caused a shock freeze in the economy.
The situation is no better in Turkey, where the central bank is cutting rates sharply against rising inflation, sending the national currency into a tailspin.
The Brazilian Real has lost 15% against the Dollar in the past four months as investors withdrew money from an economy where inflation has risen faster than the key interest rate. In recent months, the Brazilian central bank was forced to stretch out the tightening cycle to avoid an unnecessary shock to the economy. But simultaneously, rising interest rates, inflation, a falling currency, and logistical problems have caused a shock freeze in the economy.
The situation is no better in Turkey, where the central bank is cutting rates sharply against rising inflation, sending the national currency into a tailspin.
In recent days the situation has been worsened by a sharp rise in yields on short-term government bonds of developed countries. The Bank of Canada and the Bank of Australia have halted QE rather abruptly in the last two days.
Although its size was small, investors took it as a signal that the Fed would announce a reduction in its balance sheet purchases next week.
When short-term yields in developed country bonds are rising, so-called yield currencies risk coming under increasing pressure. The carry trade, popular in global financial markets, could find itself in reverse traction mode. The pressure on the Real and Lira continues.
The Brazilian real has been trading at 6.54 per Dollar, near the top of its trading range since May 2020. The impending storm due to Fed policy changes is potentially not only able to push the USDBRL above 5.8 but also above 6.0 before the end of the year, which would be a new all-time high.
The Turkish Lira could then end up in an area above 10 per Dollar, continuing to look for its bottom to push off from.
Although its size was small, investors took it as a signal that the Fed would announce a reduction in its balance sheet purchases next week.
When short-term yields in developed country bonds are rising, so-called yield currencies risk coming under increasing pressure. The carry trade, popular in global financial markets, could find itself in reverse traction mode. The pressure on the Real and Lira continues.
The Brazilian real has been trading at 6.54 per Dollar, near the top of its trading range since May 2020. The impending storm due to Fed policy changes is potentially not only able to push the USDBRL above 5.8 but also above 6.0 before the end of the year, which would be a new all-time high.
The Turkish Lira could then end up in an area above 10 per Dollar, continuing to look for its bottom to push off from.
#EURCHF broke support levels – 1.0660 and 1.0600
• Likely to fall to support level 1.0500
EURCHF continues to fall after the price broke through the two multi-month support levels – 1.0660 (multi-month low from November) and 1.0600 (former monthly low form July of 2020).
The breakout of these support levels accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3).
Given the clear daily downtrend, EURCHF currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.0500 (former support from the middle of 202 and the target for the completion of impulse wave (3)).
• Likely to fall to support level 1.0500
EURCHF continues to fall after the price broke through the two multi-month support levels – 1.0660 (multi-month low from November) and 1.0600 (former monthly low form July of 2020).
The breakout of these support levels accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3).
Given the clear daily downtrend, EURCHF currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.0500 (former support from the middle of 202 and the target for the completion of impulse wave (3)).
#Gold reversed from resistance level 1806.00
• Likely to fall to support level 1760.00
Gold recently reversed down sharply from the key resistance level 1806.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of September) – strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1806.00 started the active short-term corrective wave (ii).
Given the safe haven outflows from gold, Gold can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1760.00 (low of wave 2 and the likely end for the active correction (ii)).
• Likely to fall to support level 1760.00
Gold recently reversed down sharply from the key resistance level 1806.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of September) – strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1806.00 started the active short-term corrective wave (ii).
Given the safe haven outflows from gold, Gold can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1760.00 (low of wave 2 and the likely end for the active correction (ii)).
#KO (Coca-Cola) broke daily down channel
• Likely to rise to resistance level 56.85
Coca-Cola continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave 3 which previously broke the wide daily down channel from July.
The active impulse wave 3 belongs to the higher level impulse wave (3) – which started at the bottom of the aforementioned down channel.
Given the clear daily uptrend , Coca-Cola can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 56.85 (target price for the completion of the impulse wave 3, top of wave B from September).
• Likely to rise to resistance level 56.85
Coca-Cola continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave 3 which previously broke the wide daily down channel from July.
The active impulse wave 3 belongs to the higher level impulse wave (3) – which started at the bottom of the aforementioned down channel.
Given the clear daily uptrend , Coca-Cola can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 56.85 (target price for the completion of the impulse wave 3, top of wave B from September).
FX got a bullish sign for the USD with a 1% jump on Friday
On Friday, the currency market ensured that the dollar bulls were far from giving up important ground and only made a tactical retreat. The Dollar’s 1% strengthening in one day against the euro, its main rival, was a clear demonstration of strength.
Currency traders crashed back the EURUSD as it approached 1.1700, a former significant support area. The pair’s recovery stopped just below the 50 simple moving average, which often indicates medium-term trends. It is worth noting how persistently the EUR has been selling from 50 SMA since June.
On the daily charts, the currency market got a significant signal of domination by the dollar bulls, forming a bearish takeover on the EURUSD.
Interestingly, on Friday, buyers in the stock markets managed to pull them into the green zone and close the month near all-time highs. Simultaneous buying in equities and a rising dollar is a rare and volatile combination.
On Friday, the currency market ensured that the dollar bulls were far from giving up important ground and only made a tactical retreat. The Dollar’s 1% strengthening in one day against the euro, its main rival, was a clear demonstration of strength.
Currency traders crashed back the EURUSD as it approached 1.1700, a former significant support area. The pair’s recovery stopped just below the 50 simple moving average, which often indicates medium-term trends. It is worth noting how persistently the EUR has been selling from 50 SMA since June.
On the daily charts, the currency market got a significant signal of domination by the dollar bulls, forming a bearish takeover on the EURUSD.
Interestingly, on Friday, buyers in the stock markets managed to pull them into the green zone and close the month near all-time highs. Simultaneous buying in equities and a rising dollar is a rare and volatile combination.
We tend to think of the currency market as a more reliable indicator of changing trends. However, cautious traders would surely prefer to wait for a confirmation in EURUSD, falling below the local lows at 1.1530.
Investors, in general, would prefer to wait for signals from the fundamentals, with plenty of them happening this week.
On Wednesday, the US Fed will announce a decision on the key rate and the QE programme. The latter is expected to start tapering in November. Markets and Fed officials now expect QE to be entirely over by the middle of next year. These expectations are setting the trend for higher debt market interest rates. However, investors and traders will be watching the comments closely to adjust their expectations. And these changes have the potential to fundamentally affect the dynamics of the markets.
The other big news this week is the monthly labour market report. Market analysts are very cautious about employment growth, expecting to see around 400K new jobs -- twice as many as was in September and above the long-term average. However, we cannot rule out upside surprises, as the end of additional unemployment benefits and higher inflation should stimulate the US to go back to work.
Investors, in general, would prefer to wait for signals from the fundamentals, with plenty of them happening this week.
On Wednesday, the US Fed will announce a decision on the key rate and the QE programme. The latter is expected to start tapering in November. Markets and Fed officials now expect QE to be entirely over by the middle of next year. These expectations are setting the trend for higher debt market interest rates. However, investors and traders will be watching the comments closely to adjust their expectations. And these changes have the potential to fundamentally affect the dynamics of the markets.
The other big news this week is the monthly labour market report. Market analysts are very cautious about employment growth, expecting to see around 400K new jobs -- twice as many as was in September and above the long-term average. However, we cannot rule out upside surprises, as the end of additional unemployment benefits and higher inflation should stimulate the US to go back to work.
This is a favourable environment for the Dollar, which buyers could support in the coming weeks, developing an advance towards 1.1200 before the end of the year in the EURUSD and up to 97.5 in the USD Index from the current 1.1550 and 94.2 respectively. However, the biggest blow could come in emerging market currencies, where we could see a simultaneous winding down of the carry trade, profit-taking from previous gains and a shift of capital into dollar assets, which have become more profitable in recent weeks.
The Brazilian stock market developed its decline last week, losing 2.6%, closing at mid-November 2020 lows. Since June this year, this market has remained under sustained pressure, following a reversal in metals while Bovespa has lost more than 20% from its peak, flirting with the Bear Market territory.
From the tech analysis side, the Brazilian market looks oversold on the daily charts, i.e. potentially attractive for buying in anticipation of a rebound. But it might be a false start, as there are some important tests ahead.
Investors should pay attention to the continuing fall in metal and coal prices, as well as the strength of the American Dollar.
The Bovespa is now on the way to the 200-week moving average, which coincides with the psychologically important 100,000 level. If a fall below those levels attracts mass buyers, it could be the beginning of a prolonged bull rally and keep the Bovespa index out of the bear market phase.
From the tech analysis side, the Brazilian market looks oversold on the daily charts, i.e. potentially attractive for buying in anticipation of a rebound. But it might be a false start, as there are some important tests ahead.
Investors should pay attention to the continuing fall in metal and coal prices, as well as the strength of the American Dollar.
The Bovespa is now on the way to the 200-week moving average, which coincides with the psychologically important 100,000 level. If a fall below those levels attracts mass buyers, it could be the beginning of a prolonged bull rally and keep the Bovespa index out of the bear market phase.
#WaveAnalysis
#FTSE100 broke key resistance level 7285.00.
Likely to rise to resistance level 7400.00.
FTSE 100 index continues to rise after the price broke the key resistance level 7285.00 (previous monthly high from October).
The breakout of the resistance level 7285.00 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (5).
Given the clear multi-month uptrend, FTSE 100 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 7400.00.
#FTSE100 broke key resistance level 7285.00.
Likely to rise to resistance level 7400.00.
FTSE 100 index continues to rise after the price broke the key resistance level 7285.00 (previous monthly high from October).
The breakout of the resistance level 7285.00 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (5).
Given the clear multi-month uptrend, FTSE 100 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 7400.00.
#WaveAnalysis
#CHFJPY broke key resistance level 124.5
• Likely to rise to the resistance level of 126.00
CHFJPY continues to rise after the price broke the key resistance level 124.5 (which stopped the previous sharp upward impulse wave 1 in the middle of October, as can be seen below).
The breakout of the resistance level 124.5 accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3).
Given the clear daily uptrend, the CHFJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level of 126.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).
#CHFJPY broke key resistance level 124.5
• Likely to rise to the resistance level of 126.00
CHFJPY continues to rise after the price broke the key resistance level 124.5 (which stopped the previous sharp upward impulse wave 1 in the middle of October, as can be seen below).
The breakout of the resistance level 124.5 accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3).
Given the clear daily uptrend, the CHFJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level of 126.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).