🔔 Coming up today! Non-Farm Payrolls
🔜It is jobs day with the US release employment statistics at 12:30 GMT, which can spark big moves across FX and Stock markets. This report is seen as critical for the path of the Federal Reserve policy.
Market analysts expect 750K new jobs in August, down from 943K in July. Significantly higher numbers increase the chances Fed will announce tapering later this month, which promises to be good for USD and not-so-good for stocks.
Unexpectedly weak hiring numbers may demand more time for the Fed to assess economic progress before unwinding stimulus, which may be negative for the USD and help stocks to slowly creep up. Be prepared for increased volatility!
👉Register https://bit.ly/3n8rYtz & Trade CFDs responsibly with FxPro.com
🔜It is jobs day with the US release employment statistics at 12:30 GMT, which can spark big moves across FX and Stock markets. This report is seen as critical for the path of the Federal Reserve policy.
Market analysts expect 750K new jobs in August, down from 943K in July. Significantly higher numbers increase the chances Fed will announce tapering later this month, which promises to be good for USD and not-so-good for stocks.
Unexpectedly weak hiring numbers may demand more time for the Fed to assess economic progress before unwinding stimulus, which may be negative for the USD and help stocks to slowly creep up. Be prepared for increased volatility!
👉Register https://bit.ly/3n8rYtz & Trade CFDs responsibly with FxPro.com
The US created 235K new jobs, drastically worse than the expected 750K. Estimates for July increased by 110K to 1,053K
The rise in coronavirus cases last month had a visibly negative impact on the pace of labour market recovery.
At the same time, it would be incorrect to speak of a depressed state. Average hourly earnings jumped 0.6% m/m and 4.3% y/y last month.
The high rate of wage growth offsets the negative impact of weak employment growth, strengthening the inflationary spiral and supporting inflation expectations.
In our view, despite the wage data, the weak hiring rate will contribute to pressure on the dollar in the coming days as it creates room for the Fed to take its time in starting the unwinding and postpone the decision until November or December meetings.
The rise in coronavirus cases last month had a visibly negative impact on the pace of labour market recovery.
At the same time, it would be incorrect to speak of a depressed state. Average hourly earnings jumped 0.6% m/m and 4.3% y/y last month.
The high rate of wage growth offsets the negative impact of weak employment growth, strengthening the inflationary spiral and supporting inflation expectations.
In our view, despite the wage data, the weak hiring rate will contribute to pressure on the dollar in the coming days as it creates room for the Fed to take its time in starting the unwinding and postpone the decision until November or December meetings.
#USDJPY reversed from resistance level 110.50
• Likely to fall to support level 109.25
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed down with the daily Shooting Star form the key resistance level 110.50, intersecting with the daily upper Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 110.50 stopped the previous impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3).
USDJPY can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 109.25 (which has been steadily reversing the price from June).
• Likely to fall to support level 109.25
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed down with the daily Shooting Star form the key resistance level 110.50, intersecting with the daily upper Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 110.50 stopped the previous impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3).
USDJPY can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 109.25 (which has been steadily reversing the price from June).
#Silver broke resistance area
• Likely to rise to resistance level 25.00
Silver today broke the resistance area lying between the resistance level 24.00, resistance trendline of the daily down channel from June and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from July.
The breakout of this resistance area accelerated the active short-term ABC correction 2 from the middle of August
Silver can be expected to rise further toward the next key resistance level 25.00 (target price for the completion of the active correction 2).
• Likely to rise to resistance level 25.00
Silver today broke the resistance area lying between the resistance level 24.00, resistance trendline of the daily down channel from June and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from July.
The breakout of this resistance area accelerated the active short-term ABC correction 2 from the middle of August
Silver can be expected to rise further toward the next key resistance level 25.00 (target price for the completion of the active correction 2).
#GBPUSD broke resistance area
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3960
GBPUSD recently broke the resistance area lying between the resistance level 1.3800 (top of wave 1) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse (C) from May.
The breakout of this resistance area accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3).
GBPUSD can be expected to rise further toward the next strong resistance level 1.3960 (target for the completion of wave 3, which has been reversing the price from June).
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3960
GBPUSD recently broke the resistance area lying between the resistance level 1.3800 (top of wave 1) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse (C) from May.
The breakout of this resistance area accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3).
GBPUSD can be expected to rise further toward the next strong resistance level 1.3960 (target for the completion of wave 3, which has been reversing the price from June).
Bitcoin and gold fall bring back interest to the dollar
On Tuesday, the dollar added around 0.5% to a basket of the six most popular currencies on turbulence in some market sectors.
The "buy rumours, sell facts" model played out in full force yesterday and may continue to dominate the markets for quite some time.
Bitcoin has officially become legal tender in El Salvador. Both media and social media have spurred interest in the event in recent weeks.
The price reaching the $53k area triggered big profit-taking, which quickly escalated into a margin call that pushed the price back by $10k at one point.
There was a telling sell-off in precious metals, where gold lost about 1.5% to $1800, while silver and platinum fell over 2%, to $24.2 and $1000, respectively. These metals were pushed back to critical technical levels, once again raising the question that investors are ready to switch to long position liquidation mode very quickly.
On Tuesday, the dollar added around 0.5% to a basket of the six most popular currencies on turbulence in some market sectors.
The "buy rumours, sell facts" model played out in full force yesterday and may continue to dominate the markets for quite some time.
Bitcoin has officially become legal tender in El Salvador. Both media and social media have spurred interest in the event in recent weeks.
The price reaching the $53k area triggered big profit-taking, which quickly escalated into a margin call that pushed the price back by $10k at one point.
There was a telling sell-off in precious metals, where gold lost about 1.5% to $1800, while silver and platinum fell over 2%, to $24.2 and $1000, respectively. These metals were pushed back to critical technical levels, once again raising the question that investors are ready to switch to long position liquidation mode very quickly.
This was also reflected in the Wall Streets Fear Gauge, the VIX, which jumped 15.7% on Tuesday. Remarkably, the local lows of the index have been increasingly higher since July, which means that the lull in the markets is becoming less and less calm.
The drop in bitcoin and gold and the jump in the VIX points to increased nervousness in the markets. In such an environment, investors often perceive a relatively neutral news backdrop as an excuse to tread carefully to lock in profits. However, the dynamics of the same Bitcoin clearly show how quickly the market can move from this phase to margin calls, when a broad pull into the most liquid and defensive securities is formed, triggering strong demand for the dollar.
Historically, September is considered the worst month for the stock market, as funds and investors often lock in profits towards the end of the US financial year. And we already see a clear manifestation of this traction in instruments sensitive to the pull into risky assets.
The drop in bitcoin and gold and the jump in the VIX points to increased nervousness in the markets. In such an environment, investors often perceive a relatively neutral news backdrop as an excuse to tread carefully to lock in profits. However, the dynamics of the same Bitcoin clearly show how quickly the market can move from this phase to margin calls, when a broad pull into the most liquid and defensive securities is formed, triggering strong demand for the dollar.
Historically, September is considered the worst month for the stock market, as funds and investors often lock in profits towards the end of the US financial year. And we already see a clear manifestation of this traction in instruments sensitive to the pull into risky assets.
The USDCAD rallied strongly earlier in the week on a decline towards the cross of the 50- and 200-day moving averages. The sharp jump of 1.2% to 1.2700 should be taken as a signal that investors in North America remain bullish on the USD despite short-term risks from the Bank of Canada rate meeting.
There is a "golden cross" in the USDCAD when the 50 SMA crosses the 200 SMA from the bottom to the top. In June, the pair sharply broke the resistance of the 50-day moving average and turned into support, which was confirmed in the previous week.
The 200 SMA is a bigger calibre weapon, and it acts as a long-term trend indicator. This month we are seeing more signs that this line is moving into support from resistance as well.
A bullish picture for the USDCAD opens the pair to the 1.3000 area, an important round level, plus the 2019 support and the 61.8% pullback of the pair's March 2020 to June 2021 peaks are concentrated here.
There is a "golden cross" in the USDCAD when the 50 SMA crosses the 200 SMA from the bottom to the top. In June, the pair sharply broke the resistance of the 50-day moving average and turned into support, which was confirmed in the previous week.
The 200 SMA is a bigger calibre weapon, and it acts as a long-term trend indicator. This month we are seeing more signs that this line is moving into support from resistance as well.
A bullish picture for the USDCAD opens the pair to the 1.3000 area, an important round level, plus the 2019 support and the 61.8% pullback of the pair's March 2020 to June 2021 peaks are concentrated here.
Buy the dip for Value-companies still works
The stock markets are again dominated by the idea of weaker growth, which will require an extension of the current stimulus for some more time.
New highs in the Nasdaq contrast with the retreat of the Dow Jones and DAX, all repeating last year's situation when markets bet on "growth" (mainly Tech) stocks. The re-birth of this idea has increased following a series of weak US economic reports and signs that the pace of recovery in Europe and China is fading.
However, there are also differences from what we see now and a year ago, when investors really didn't see the light at the end of the tunnel, and it was many months before the widespread use of vaccines.
A good reminder that the world is heading towards a reduction in stimulus is the end of the additional jobless payment programmes in the US.
Major central banks, for their part, are already officially choosing the moment to start policy normalisation, and it may come sooner than optimists hope. The outperformance of technology companies risks an abrupt halt as soon as the monetary watchdogs confirm their policy stance towards a withdrawal of support. This makes a buying strategy relevant for downturns in "value" stocks, which retain their global appeal but have been somewhat subdued of late.
The stock markets are again dominated by the idea of weaker growth, which will require an extension of the current stimulus for some more time.
New highs in the Nasdaq contrast with the retreat of the Dow Jones and DAX, all repeating last year's situation when markets bet on "growth" (mainly Tech) stocks. The re-birth of this idea has increased following a series of weak US economic reports and signs that the pace of recovery in Europe and China is fading.
However, there are also differences from what we see now and a year ago, when investors really didn't see the light at the end of the tunnel, and it was many months before the widespread use of vaccines.
A good reminder that the world is heading towards a reduction in stimulus is the end of the additional jobless payment programmes in the US.
Major central banks, for their part, are already officially choosing the moment to start policy normalisation, and it may come sooner than optimists hope. The outperformance of technology companies risks an abrupt halt as soon as the monetary watchdogs confirm their policy stance towards a withdrawal of support. This makes a buying strategy relevant for downturns in "value" stocks, which retain their global appeal but have been somewhat subdued of late.
#NTG (Natural gas) broke major resistance area
• Likely to rise to resistance levels 5.0 and 5.2
Natural gas earlier broke through the major resistance area located between the multi-year resistance level 4.895 (which started the sharp downtrend at the end of 2018) and the resistance trendline of the weekly up channel from April.
The breakout of this resistance area is aligned with the active sharp upward impulse waves 5 and (C).
If the price closes today above 4.895, Natural gas can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance levels 5.0 and 5.2.
• Likely to rise to resistance levels 5.0 and 5.2
Natural gas earlier broke through the major resistance area located between the multi-year resistance level 4.895 (which started the sharp downtrend at the end of 2018) and the resistance trendline of the weekly up channel from April.
The breakout of this resistance area is aligned with the active sharp upward impulse waves 5 and (C).
If the price closes today above 4.895, Natural gas can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance levels 5.0 and 5.2.
#EURUSD reversed from resistance area
• Likely to test support level 1.1750
EURUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance area set between the pivotal resistance level 1.19 (which has been reversing the price from July) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse (C) from May.
The downward reversal from this resistance area started the active corrective wave (2).
EURUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.1750 (target for the completion of the active corrective wave (2)).
• Likely to test support level 1.1750
EURUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance area set between the pivotal resistance level 1.19 (which has been reversing the price from July) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse (C) from May.
The downward reversal from this resistance area started the active corrective wave (2).
EURUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.1750 (target for the completion of the active corrective wave (2)).
During the day, Bitcoin dropped to $44,400, but the price managed to return to the level above $46,000. The altcoin market froze, waiting for the next BTC price move.
The decision of El Salvador, apparently, does not allow many to sleep well. Suddenly, the Ukrainian parliament adopted the law about digital assets, which will officially introduce cryptocurrencies into the legal field. But don't be in a hurry to rejoice. The essence of the project is that people can now open crypto accounts in banks, and if the fact of fraud with cryptos is recorded, one can go to court with that and get some protection. It is still impossible to pay with coins for products and services in Ukraine.
Perhaps this is for the best: Bloomberg published an article that El Salvador faced a sell-off in government bonds on Wednesday. In this way, investors are reportedly trying to take revenge on the country for adopting BTC.
Trade cryptos 24/7 on the FxPro platforms: https://www.fxpro.com/trading/cryptocurrencies 👈🏻
The decision of El Salvador, apparently, does not allow many to sleep well. Suddenly, the Ukrainian parliament adopted the law about digital assets, which will officially introduce cryptocurrencies into the legal field. But don't be in a hurry to rejoice. The essence of the project is that people can now open crypto accounts in banks, and if the fact of fraud with cryptos is recorded, one can go to court with that and get some protection. It is still impossible to pay with coins for products and services in Ukraine.
Perhaps this is for the best: Bloomberg published an article that El Salvador faced a sell-off in government bonds on Wednesday. In this way, investors are reportedly trying to take revenge on the country for adopting BTC.
Trade cryptos 24/7 on the FxPro platforms: https://www.fxpro.com/trading/cryptocurrencies 👈🏻
Sellers’ pressure in stocks is now moving from the periphery to the centre
The stock market currently acts like a tired climber, moving up in smaller and smaller steps while resting more often.
This dynamic can easily be attributed to poor preparation, given how many unprofessional retail investors have entered the markets in recent months.
Most of the market upturn at the start of the week was due to buying shares in a few large companies. For example, Apple shares made a new all-time high of 157.26 early in the week, but yesterday the bulls’ efforts were not enough to withstand the sellers’ onslaught as it comes from the periphery to the centre.
The American dollar retraced to the levels of early September, which created a headwind for the equities market. On a separate note, Turkish and Brazilian assets were on the sell-off in emerging markets, as their currencies lost over 2.5% since September 7th. This move quite logically complements the 12% collapse in Bitcoin over the same time frame.
The stock market currently acts like a tired climber, moving up in smaller and smaller steps while resting more often.
This dynamic can easily be attributed to poor preparation, given how many unprofessional retail investors have entered the markets in recent months.
Most of the market upturn at the start of the week was due to buying shares in a few large companies. For example, Apple shares made a new all-time high of 157.26 early in the week, but yesterday the bulls’ efforts were not enough to withstand the sellers’ onslaught as it comes from the periphery to the centre.
The American dollar retraced to the levels of early September, which created a headwind for the equities market. On a separate note, Turkish and Brazilian assets were on the sell-off in emerging markets, as their currencies lost over 2.5% since September 7th. This move quite logically complements the 12% collapse in Bitcoin over the same time frame.
Not improving investor’s sentiment is a new batch of inflation data from China. Producer prices accelerated to 9.5% y/y in August, markedly higher than the forecasted 9.1% and 9.0% a month earlier. Consumer prices, meanwhile, slowed from 1.0% to 0.8%.
Companies in the world’s second-biggest economy are facing the steepest rises in product costs since August 2008 but are shy to start passing them on to consumers. This threatens to send Chinese companies’ profits plummeting.
But the same situation is worth extrapolating to other major economies of the world, whose data will be released later but which correlate pretty closely with the Chinese data.
Companies in the world’s second-biggest economy are facing the steepest rises in product costs since August 2008 but are shy to start passing them on to consumers. This threatens to send Chinese companies’ profits plummeting.
But the same situation is worth extrapolating to other major economies of the world, whose data will be released later but which correlate pretty closely with the Chinese data.
Now seems that only dovish statements by central bankers can lift the cloud that is gathering over the markets. Today it is worth paying attention to the ECB’s rhetoric regarding the outlook for QE and its view on the inflation outlook.
On the US side, influential New York Fed President John Williams said that he doesn’t see the “substantial” progress in the labour market needed to reduce the massive asset purchases on the Fed’s balance sheet.
So far, we are seeing more signs of pressure building up on risky assets, which is increasingly moving from the periphery to the ‘centre’, causing the leading European and US indices to fall. The Dow Jones 30 and DAX 30 closed Wednesday below their 50-day averages, falling into the August lows area.
On the US side, influential New York Fed President John Williams said that he doesn’t see the “substantial” progress in the labour market needed to reduce the massive asset purchases on the Fed’s balance sheet.
So far, we are seeing more signs of pressure building up on risky assets, which is increasingly moving from the periphery to the ‘centre’, causing the leading European and US indices to fall. The Dow Jones 30 and DAX 30 closed Wednesday below their 50-day averages, falling into the August lows area.
In its latest statement today, ECB said that it will continue “with a moderately lower pace of net asset purchases” under PEPP, after two quarters of acceleration. At the same time, its volume (€1.85 trillion) as well as key interest rates remained unchanged.
Key European stock indices are strengthening after the press release as the ECB promised a flexible approach to the volume of monthly purchases based on market conditions. For the markets this means a stabilisation mechanism in case of deteriorating financial conditions.
The single currency, however, also strengthened gains, rewriting intraday highs at $1.1840. In the EURUSD, the tug of war continues at levels just above the 50-day moving average near 1.1800.
The same is true for the DXY dollar index as well as GBPUSD, where bull and bear forces are balanced near key levels. A strong move from current levels could form the basis for a trend right up to the end of the year.
Key European stock indices are strengthening after the press release as the ECB promised a flexible approach to the volume of monthly purchases based on market conditions. For the markets this means a stabilisation mechanism in case of deteriorating financial conditions.
The single currency, however, also strengthened gains, rewriting intraday highs at $1.1840. In the EURUSD, the tug of war continues at levels just above the 50-day moving average near 1.1800.
The same is true for the DXY dollar index as well as GBPUSD, where bull and bear forces are balanced near key levels. A strong move from current levels could form the basis for a trend right up to the end of the year.
🎮 Will the Game ever Stop?
GameStop is an American video games chain that was previously in a difficult situation due to competition from the digital distribution of computer games and the economic impact of the pandemic, causing the share price to fall and prompting many institutional investors to short the stock. At the same time, some investors suggested that GameStop shares were undervalued.
📈Everything changed in January 2021, when Reddit users initiated a historic short squeeze on GME on various stock exchanges. This led to serious financial losses for some of the big bearish players in the US stock market, particularly hedge funds.
In just two weeks, a coordinated buying by small investors boosted the share price from $20 to $500 per share! The volatility has now settled somewhat, with the stock currently trading around $197.
Yesterday, despite reporting rising sales in their quarterly earnings report, GME shares fell by more than 7% in after hours trading. How will the stock perform at today’s US market open?
👉Register https://bit.ly/3n8rYtz & Trade CFDs on #Gamestop & more new hot stocks with FxPro.com
Trade Responsibly. 72.4% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
GameStop is an American video games chain that was previously in a difficult situation due to competition from the digital distribution of computer games and the economic impact of the pandemic, causing the share price to fall and prompting many institutional investors to short the stock. At the same time, some investors suggested that GameStop shares were undervalued.
📈Everything changed in January 2021, when Reddit users initiated a historic short squeeze on GME on various stock exchanges. This led to serious financial losses for some of the big bearish players in the US stock market, particularly hedge funds.
In just two weeks, a coordinated buying by small investors boosted the share price from $20 to $500 per share! The volatility has now settled somewhat, with the stock currently trading around $197.
Yesterday, despite reporting rising sales in their quarterly earnings report, GME shares fell by more than 7% in after hours trading. How will the stock perform at today’s US market open?
👉Register https://bit.ly/3n8rYtz & Trade CFDs on #Gamestop & more new hot stocks with FxPro.com
Trade Responsibly. 72.4% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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#EURCAD reversed from thee resistance area
• Likely to fall to support level 1.4870
EURCAD currency pair recently reversed down with the daily Shooting Star from the resistance area located between the pivotal resistance level 1.5050 (which has been reversing the pair from July) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance area stopped the previous short-term impulse waves (iii) and C.
EURCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.4870 (which has been reversing the price from the end of August).
• Likely to fall to support level 1.4870
EURCAD currency pair recently reversed down with the daily Shooting Star from the resistance area located between the pivotal resistance level 1.5050 (which has been reversing the pair from July) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance area stopped the previous short-term impulse waves (iii) and C.
EURCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.4870 (which has been reversing the price from the end of August).