#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY reversed from resistance level 130.70
• Likely to reach support level 129.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurjpy-wave-analysis-19-march-2021-20210319/
#EURJPY reversed from resistance level 130.70
• Likely to reach support level 129.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurjpy-wave-analysis-19-march-2021-20210319/
The potentially toxic collapse of the Turkish lira
The Turkish lira started the week with a 16% plunge due to the Turkish president’s sacking of the central bank governor. At 8.4 per dollar and 10 per euro, the lira was near historic lows.
This is worrying news for emerging market currencies. In previous years, we repeatedly saw that sustained pressure on the Turkish lira becomes toxic very quickly, escalating into pressure on European assets and currencies with links to Turkish markets.
Generally speaking, government intervention in central bank policy promises to increase significantly in the coming months and years, becoming a global trend.
https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/the-potentially-toxic-collapse-of-the-turkish-lira-20210322/
The Turkish lira started the week with a 16% plunge due to the Turkish president’s sacking of the central bank governor. At 8.4 per dollar and 10 per euro, the lira was near historic lows.
This is worrying news for emerging market currencies. In previous years, we repeatedly saw that sustained pressure on the Turkish lira becomes toxic very quickly, escalating into pressure on European assets and currencies with links to Turkish markets.
Generally speaking, government intervention in central bank policy promises to increase significantly in the coming months and years, becoming a global trend.
https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/the-potentially-toxic-collapse-of-the-turkish-lira-20210322/
US existing home sales fell 6.6% in February to an annualised rate of 6.22M. Economists, on average, had forecast a drop of less than half that, but bad weather made a more substantial adjustment to economic activity than previously estimated. Despite this pullback, these sales volumes have not been seen since 2007.
The backlog of unsold homes stands at two months compared to 3.1 one year ago and an average of 4 months in 2018-2019. This data is also on the housing market's optimistic side, likely pointing to further price increases due to low supply.
Meanwhile, prices have already added 15.8% y/y to last year, with wealthier regions, the West and the Northeast, seeing increases over 20% y/y.
Despite the headline number downturn, strong domestic data reflects healthy domestic demand and hopes for a strong recovery.
The backlog of unsold homes stands at two months compared to 3.1 one year ago and an average of 4 months in 2018-2019. This data is also on the housing market's optimistic side, likely pointing to further price increases due to low supply.
Meanwhile, prices have already added 15.8% y/y to last year, with wealthier regions, the West and the Northeast, seeing increases over 20% y/y.
Despite the headline number downturn, strong domestic data reflects healthy domestic demand and hopes for a strong recovery.
#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY reversed from support level 129.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 130.70
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurjpy-wave-analysis-22-march-2021-20210322/
#EURJPY reversed from support level 129.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 130.70
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurjpy-wave-analysis-22-march-2021-20210322/
#WaveAnalysis
#Wheat reversed from support zone
• Likely to reach resistance level 640.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wheat-wave-analysis-22-march-2021-20210322/
#Wheat reversed from support zone
• Likely to reach resistance level 640.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wheat-wave-analysis-22-march-2021-20210322/
Markets wary on the anniversary of the coronavirus “bottom”
The currency market looks increasingly anxious, showing a bias towards safe-havens, which is often an early sign of risk aversion. There is pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are losing 1% and 2% against the US dollar.
Simultaneously, the Japanese yen is strengthening against most of its peers, returning below 109 for the dollar and 130 for the euro.
An additional sign of the pull towards safety is the rise in the EURGBP pair, as investors see several Eurozone bonds as defensive.
All of these are classic signs of a comprehensive exit from risky assets in favour of defensive assets. However, the amplitude of this move is nothing compared to what we saw just over a year ago.
https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/markets-wary-on-the-anniversary-of-the-coronavirus-bottom-20210323/
The currency market looks increasingly anxious, showing a bias towards safe-havens, which is often an early sign of risk aversion. There is pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are losing 1% and 2% against the US dollar.
Simultaneously, the Japanese yen is strengthening against most of its peers, returning below 109 for the dollar and 130 for the euro.
An additional sign of the pull towards safety is the rise in the EURGBP pair, as investors see several Eurozone bonds as defensive.
All of these are classic signs of a comprehensive exit from risky assets in favour of defensive assets. However, the amplitude of this move is nothing compared to what we saw just over a year ago.
https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/markets-wary-on-the-anniversary-of-the-coronavirus-bottom-20210323/
#WaveAnalysis
#Soy reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1450
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/soy-wave-analysis-23-march-2021-20210323/
#Soy reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1450
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/soy-wave-analysis-23-march-2021-20210323/
The risk-off on markets is classic yet soft
The currency market this week is marked by a classic risk-off dynamic. The pairs with yen have started to go downhill, with the dollar, euro, and pound stepping down after a steep rise since the start of November.
Yesterday, GBPUSD fell under the 50 SMA, reflecting a breakdown in the recent trend. The nearest target for the technical correction is 1.3650, the area of the previous consolidation. There is also support at 61.8% of the last rally.
The nearest target for a USDJPY pullback from that rally is 107.7 (76.4% of the rally from 102.5 to 109.4).
EURUSD looks the heaviest, having closed under the 200 SMA at 1.1850 on Tuesday. Potentially, the bears might not loosen their grip until the slide to 1.1600, the support area of October and November, giving away about half of the rise from 1.08, the very start of the euro rally last year, to a 1.2350 peak in January.
https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/the-risk-off-on-markets-is-classic-yet-soft-20210324/
The currency market this week is marked by a classic risk-off dynamic. The pairs with yen have started to go downhill, with the dollar, euro, and pound stepping down after a steep rise since the start of November.
Yesterday, GBPUSD fell under the 50 SMA, reflecting a breakdown in the recent trend. The nearest target for the technical correction is 1.3650, the area of the previous consolidation. There is also support at 61.8% of the last rally.
The nearest target for a USDJPY pullback from that rally is 107.7 (76.4% of the rally from 102.5 to 109.4).
EURUSD looks the heaviest, having closed under the 200 SMA at 1.1850 on Tuesday. Potentially, the bears might not loosen their grip until the slide to 1.1600, the support area of October and November, giving away about half of the rise from 1.08, the very start of the euro rally last year, to a 1.2350 peak in January.
https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/the-risk-off-on-markets-is-classic-yet-soft-20210324/
Today is PMI day when IHS Markit publishes the preliminary estimates for March for a host of major economies, and the European figures are exceeding expectations.
Flash Manufacturing PMI for Germany, the eurozone's locomotive, rose to 66.6, a record high (data since 1996), well above the forecasted 60.4. Service sector numbers are much more modest - a return to growth territory (above 50) and a 7-month high of 50.8 (46.4 expected).
In previous months, strong PMIs have often been a big help to the Euro. But this time, the buyers' strength was only enough to stop EURUSD on its approach 1.1800. For the most part, the survey was conducted before the announcements of an extended lockdown in Germany, which promises to seriously affect the final estimate.
Flash Manufacturing PMI for Germany, the eurozone's locomotive, rose to 66.6, a record high (data since 1996), well above the forecasted 60.4. Service sector numbers are much more modest - a return to growth territory (above 50) and a 7-month high of 50.8 (46.4 expected).
In previous months, strong PMIs have often been a big help to the Euro. But this time, the buyers' strength was only enough to stop EURUSD on its approach 1.1800. For the most part, the survey was conducted before the announcements of an extended lockdown in Germany, which promises to seriously affect the final estimate.
UK PMIs also markedly exceeded expectations. The manufacturing index rose to 57.9 (three-year high), and the service sector rose to 56.8 (7-month max), considerably better than expectations of 55 and 51.1, respectively. Britain's reading looks healthier, as the recovery in services is linked to a successful vaccination programme, so it seems more robust. But neither has helped turn the pound higher, currently stuck at $1.3700, hovering at the last six weeks' lows.
#WaveAnalysis
#Boeing reversed from support zone
• Likely to reach resistance level 266
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/boeing-wave-analysis-24-march-2021-20210324/
#Boeing reversed from support zone
• Likely to reach resistance level 266
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/boeing-wave-analysis-24-march-2021-20210324/
#WaveAnalysis
#WTI reversed from support zone
• Likely to reach resistance level 63.10
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wti-wave-analysis-24-march-2021-20210324/
#WTI reversed from support zone
• Likely to reach resistance level 63.10
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wti-wave-analysis-24-march-2021-20210324/
The tanker blocking the Suez Canal provided much-needed help for oil, stopping a sell-off and restoring growth. Thanks to the tanker incident, the price received support on the downside towards 60/bbl Brent.
On the tech analysis side, oil received a bullish signal. Yesterday’s recovery came after the price fell below the correction level of 76.4% from the November-March rally. Together with that, it returned to the area above the 50-day moving average, confirming its commitment to the upside trend.
https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/oil-manages-to-buck-the-upward-trend-20210325/
On the tech analysis side, oil received a bullish signal. Yesterday’s recovery came after the price fell below the correction level of 76.4% from the November-March rally. Together with that, it returned to the area above the 50-day moving average, confirming its commitment to the upside trend.
https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/oil-manages-to-buck-the-upward-trend-20210325/
After a pullback, markets find support, at least for now
In FX, the most significant decline against the dollar was the safe-heavens, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. The USDJPY returned to a nine-month high above 109.2 while USDCHF exceeded 0.9400.
The single currency is now behaving more like a safe-haven, retreating on market gains. As a result, the dollar index has climbed above its 200-day average.
Risk-sensitive AUD, NZD, CNH and GBP stabilise for the second day after an impressive retreat against the dollar. It is worth keeping an eye on the upside of the dollar, as its sustained strengthening has the potential to suppress the markets’ optimism very quickly.
The S&P500 once again received support from buyers on the decline under the 50-day average. Buying took place on higher volumes, further reflecting buyer confidence.
https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/after-a-pullback-markets-find-support-at-least-for-now-20210326/
In FX, the most significant decline against the dollar was the safe-heavens, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. The USDJPY returned to a nine-month high above 109.2 while USDCHF exceeded 0.9400.
The single currency is now behaving more like a safe-haven, retreating on market gains. As a result, the dollar index has climbed above its 200-day average.
Risk-sensitive AUD, NZD, CNH and GBP stabilise for the second day after an impressive retreat against the dollar. It is worth keeping an eye on the upside of the dollar, as its sustained strengthening has the potential to suppress the markets’ optimism very quickly.
The S&P500 once again received support from buyers on the decline under the 50-day average. Buying took place on higher volumes, further reflecting buyer confidence.
https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/after-a-pullback-markets-find-support-at-least-for-now-20210326/
The USA's monthly income and expenditure data continue to point to a glass ceiling in expenditure. The statistics for February marked a return of income levels close to the long-term trend after the January surge.
Spending fell by 0.9%, never managing to surpass pre-pandemic levels, while monthly income is 5% higher than a year ago.
Spending fell by 0.9%, never managing to surpass pre-pandemic levels, while monthly income is 5% higher than a year ago.
In other words, Americans continue to save heavily, putting aside 13.6% of total income last month. This figure rises sharply in the months of stimulus cheques but has never fallen below 12.5% or 1/8 of income during the previous 12 months. Such high figures are not typical of Americans since the mid-1970s.
The urge to save is not compatible with the economic rationale of high inflationary expectations. People are not in a hurry to buy because they are not afraid of explosive price increases and wealth loss.
But there is another reason to be cautious about spending: the fear of losing income soon pushes one to store more under the mattress. This caution in itself can cause an economic downturn in the US if companies start to adjust their plans to shrinking demand.
The urge to save is not compatible with the economic rationale of high inflationary expectations. People are not in a hurry to buy because they are not afraid of explosive price increases and wealth loss.
But there is another reason to be cautious about spending: the fear of losing income soon pushes one to store more under the mattress. This caution in itself can cause an economic downturn in the US if companies start to adjust their plans to shrinking demand.
#WaveAnalysis
#Silver reversed from support zone
• Likely to reach resistance level 26.65
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/silver-wave-analysis-26-march-2021-20210326/
#Silver reversed from support zone
• Likely to reach resistance level 26.65
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/silver-wave-analysis-26-march-2021-20210326/
#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY reversed from support level 128.4
• Likely to rise to resistance level 130.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurjpy-wave-analysis-26-march-2021-20210326/
#EURJPY reversed from support level 128.4
• Likely to rise to resistance level 130.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurjpy-wave-analysis-26-march-2021-20210326/
Suez Blockage halts sell-off in oil
Oil is losing about 2% on Monday morning, down to $63 for Brent and $59.60 for WTI on reports that Egypt managed to unblock the Suez Canal from the container ship Ever Given.
Economically, this incident does not affect the global balance of oil supply and demand, but could have a psychological effect on the markets.
The day before Ever Given closed the Suez Canal, Brent and WTI collapsed 6%, falling under the 50-day moving averages, and the dip from the peak in early March was over $10 or 15%. These developments have stopped a self-sustaining and ever-growing downturn in a recently overheated market.
Fluctuations in recent days have marked short-term resistance at $65 for Brent and $61 for WTI. Overcoming these values would convince markets that the Suez pause proved to be a necessary reset for oil, which is now attractive to buyers after a pullback from peaks in early March.
https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/blockage-in-suez-canal-halts-sell-off-in-oil-20210329
Oil is losing about 2% on Monday morning, down to $63 for Brent and $59.60 for WTI on reports that Egypt managed to unblock the Suez Canal from the container ship Ever Given.
Economically, this incident does not affect the global balance of oil supply and demand, but could have a psychological effect on the markets.
The day before Ever Given closed the Suez Canal, Brent and WTI collapsed 6%, falling under the 50-day moving averages, and the dip from the peak in early March was over $10 or 15%. These developments have stopped a self-sustaining and ever-growing downturn in a recently overheated market.
Fluctuations in recent days have marked short-term resistance at $65 for Brent and $61 for WTI. Overcoming these values would convince markets that the Suez pause proved to be a necessary reset for oil, which is now attractive to buyers after a pullback from peaks in early March.
https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/blockage-in-suez-canal-halts-sell-off-in-oil-20210329
#WaveAnalysis
#EURGBP reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8640
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurgbp-wave-analysis-29-march-2021-20210329/
#EURGBP reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8640
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurgbp-wave-analysis-29-march-2021-20210329/
#WaveAnalysis
#Gold falling inside impulse wave (3)
• Likely to reach support level 1675
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gold-wave-analysis-29-march-2021-20210329/
#Gold falling inside impulse wave (3)
• Likely to reach support level 1675
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gold-wave-analysis-29-march-2021-20210329/