Good news or bad – markets are growing, but for how long?
Last Friday, the US published a relatively weak jobs report. However, it failed to generate a meaningful sell-off in the markets as investors were encouraged by the legislators’ greater desire to provide stimulus.

Early in November, the stock market steadily grew on positive news about progress with the vaccine.

All this lead to CNN's Fear & Greed Index to the “extreme greed” mode, the last seen in late 2019th.

Optimists should bear in mind that buying assets in the hope of freshly printed money is a perilous strategy. Supporting the economy only covers some of the needs and lightens the recession, but does not reverse it completely.

It is difficult to predict precisely when markets will pull back on lack of optimism. However, it may well turn out that most assets are already sufficiently overbought for mid-term investors, and the yields/risk ratio is not in favour of new buyers this time around.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/good-news-or

#WaveAnalysis
Natural gas (#NTG) broke support level 2.515

• Likely to fall to 2.354

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/natural-gas-wave-analysis-7-december-2020-20201207/

#WaveAnalysis

#GBPUSD reversed from powerful resistance level 1.3480

• Likely to fall to 1.3200

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gbpusd-wave-analysis-7-december-2020-20201207/

Will the ECB be able to reverse the Euro’s growth?

Is the eurozone ready to see export competitiveness squeezed out by the rising Euro against the dollar? Perhaps tomorrow it will be clear what the ECB thinks about this.

Potentially, the ECB has many reasons to try to stop the Euro from growing by easing its policy tomorrow. But the fact is that it is not that easy to do so. Recent history suggests the European Central Bank is often very sluggish to act proactively. Besides, bets are already in negative territory and are criticized for their inefficiency.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/will-the-ecb-be-able-to-reverse-the-euros-growth-20201209/

#WaveAnalysis

#EURCAD falling inside minor wave 2

• Likely to fall to 1.5400

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurcad-wave-analysis-9-december-2020-20201209/

#WaveAnalysis

#Sugar reversed from pivotal support level 14.40

• Likely to rise to 15.50

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/sugar-wave-analysis-9-december-2020-20201209/

US and European policymakers have stifled share growth; will the ECB be next?

EURUSD slid under 1.21 in anticipation of the ECB monetary policy decision and comments. Investors and traders, as in all cases above, have priced in very optimistic hopes for stimulus, suggesting that we will see an expansion of the QE and a new round of lending for banks.

Traders are also waiting with interest to see whether ECB President Lagarde will comment on the 14% growth of the euro against the dollar over the last nine months. Concerns about the strengthening exchange rate may reinforce short-term corrective sentiment in EURUSD.

However, investors may be overly optimistic about the willingness of the ECB to act quickly and decisively. The relative sluggishness of European politicians promises to delay the recovery. However, this may translate into a new growth momentum for the euro.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/us-and-european-policymakers-have-stifled-share-growth-20201210/

The ECB announced new stimulus measures that were broadly in line with expectations, which explains the relatively moderate reaction of the single currency to the central bank's official comments and fresh forecasts.
However, currency traders focused on comments on the euro exchange rate. Lagarde said the appreciation of the euro plays an important role and exercises downward pressure on prices.
The ECB raised its economic forecasts for 2020 and 2022 but lowered those for 2021. These forecasts came out almost at the same time as the disappointing US report, which noted a sharp 137K jump in initial claims to 853K, the highest level since September. The jump reversed an improving trend in the labour market.
It seems that such a sharp deterioration in US data has raised the issue of demand for US assets, which translates into a lower dollar and weaker US stock indices on the NY trading session opening.

#WaveAnalysis

#USDCHF broke support level 0.8900

• Likely to fall to 0.8800

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdchf-wave-analysis-10-december-2020-20201210/

#WaveAnalysis

#GBPAUD falling inside impulse wave C

• Likely to fall to support level 1.7500

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gbpaud-wave-analysis-10-december-2020-20201210/

GBP crushed by EUR & USD on growing chances of a no-deal Brexit

The US dollar is declining for the second day in a row, but GBPUSD stalled again near 1.35.

British Prime Minister Johnson on Thursday noted the ‘strong possibility’ that there will be no trade deal with the EU because of serious disagreements over fishing rights, economic fair play and dispute settlement.

Exiting without a deal could be a severe blow to the British Pound. Over the past two and a half years, GBPUSD has reversed downwards five times from the area near 1.35. The reversal in August this year was the least profound, sending the pair into the 1.27 area vs the average 1.23.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/gbp-crushed-by-eur-usd-on-growing-chances-of-a-no-deal-brexit-20201211/

But there are many more questions about how the Pound will behave against the Euro. EURGBP in a sharp move yesterday came out of the area below 0.9000 and climbed to 0.9130, the area of the extremes of the last four years. The pair is being pushed up by Britain’s problems with an orderly exit from the EU, but a chaotic Brexit hurts Europe as well, so at some point, the prospect of a no-deal exit will apply pressure to the Euro as well.

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. The Euro has managed to enter a new, higher trading range against the dollar. This raises the chances that the single currency will tend to move higher against the Pound as well, turning the current resistance above 0.9100 into future support, targeting the area of the historical highs at 0.9500.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/gbp-crushed-by-eur-usd-on-growing-chances-of-a-no-deal-brexit-20201211/

#WaveAnalysis
#DAX falling inside impulse wave 3

• Likely to reach 12900.00

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/dax-wave-analysis-11-december-2020-20201211/

#WaveAnalysis
#AUDCAD broke resistance level 0.9615

• Likely to rise to 0.9665

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audcad-wave-analysis-11-december-2020-20201211/

Markets renew growth on Brexit & US stimulus hopes
As is almost always the case, Brexit negotiators are at their best when more time is needed to reach an agreement. This time, the president of the European Commission and the British prime minister have decided to extend discussions on free trade.

The postponement of the deadline is now seen as a ray of hope for an agreement rather than a harbinger of impending deadlock. Expectations of softer mutual trade terms between Britain and the EU gave a positive start to markets on Monday morning. GBPUSD was up 1.25% to 1.3400 by the start of the European session, more than two figures above Friday’s lows of 1.3130.

The positive dynamics of the pound and, indirectly the eur, sent global stock markets to test new highs. However, the FTSE100 and DAX30 are sluggish today.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/markets-renew-growth-on-brexit-us-stimulus-hopes-20201214/

#WaveAnalysis

#AUDNZD broke resistance level 1.0625

• Likely to rise to 1.0765

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audnzd-wave-analysis-14-december-2020-20201214/

#WaveAnalysis

#Natural gas rising inside impulse wave (3)

• Likely to reach resistance level 2.800

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/natural-gas-wave-analysis-14-december-2020-20201214/

Sell high pattern for stocks is a worrying sign

By the end of Monday, US equity indices lost their growth momentum.

It is worth noting that the dynamics of the US indices since the end of last month are mainly characterised by selling the high pattern: each intraday strong growth impulse ends with increased selling.

These declines are quickly bought out, due to heightened liquidity thanks to the central banks and the promise of new support packages, therefore forming a very narrow trading range for the main indices. Practice shows that the longer the ranges are abnormally narrow, the stronger the move after a breakout can be, although it says little about its direction.

Very soon, probably as early as early next year, this market situation could turn into a sharp increase in market volatility once investors move into truly promising investment ideas.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/sell-high-pattern-for-stocks-is-a-worrying-sign-20201215/

The November lockdown dealt a new blow to employment in the UK, causing a jump in Claimant Count by 64.3K, more than reversing the decline from a month earlier (-64.1K). In terms of employment numbers in the UK, it is too early to declare the start of a labour market recovery, as the total Claimant Count is hovering near peaks. Separate flash estimates from the ONS show a fall in employment by 28K in November.

In the three months to October, total payrolls rose 2.7% compared to the same period a year earlier, markedly better than the 1.4% in the previous month and forecasts of 2.2%. Wage growth is a good signal in times near full employment; when jobs are in decline it is a sign that companies are "optimising their workforce" by cutting the lower-paid employees.

In addition to the coronavirus, a long drawn out Brexit is weighing on Britain, undermining prospects for recovery. In this environment, it would not be surprising if GBP will underperform compared to its counterparts in the near term.

#WaveAnalysis

#Dax reversed from support level 13000.00

• Likely to rise to 13500.00

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/dax-wave-analysis-15-december-2020-20201215/

#WaveAnalysis

#Platinum reversed from round support level 1000.00

• Likely to rise to 1080.00

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/platinum-wave-analysis-15-december-2020-20201215/