New employment data from the ADP for November has spurred fears that the labour market is losing momentum. The private sector added 307K new jobs, which is noticeably weaker than the 433K expected and 404K a month earlier.

So instead of the anticipated acceleration of the labour market recovery, we are witnessing further decay in this area - a worrying signal ahead of Friday's labour market report.

Recently we received similar evidence of a weaker recovery that dragged the dollar lower. EURUSD returned to growth a little earlier in the day and received a new growth impulse after the ADP report.

Five Fed members' speeches later today, as well as the publication of the Beige Book, could potentially reverse the sentiment on the dollar. However, the example of yesterday's Powell speech in Congress makes us somewhat cautious about the immediate future of the USD.

#WaveAnalysis

#EURJPY broke pivotal resistance level 125.00

• Likely to rise to 127.00

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurjpy-wave-analysis-2-december-2020-20201202/

#WaveAnalysis

#USDCHF broke round support level 0.9000

• Likely to fall to 0.8900

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdchf-wave-analysis-2-december-2020-20201202/

Oil Rally brought back controversy in OPEC+

Oil grew throughout November but somewhat lost momentum at the end of the month. The events of early December bring back optimism in oil quotes, suggesting that the rally could develop in the coming weeks.

Production is developing recovery in key economic regions, meaning that there is no need for production restrictions as tight as they were in March. The current quotas could likely be extended by a month or two, followed by further smooth increases. This is at least in the plans. Brent quotes may be able to grow to $50 before the end of this year and approach $60 by the end of 2021.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/oil-rally-brought-back-controversy-in-opec-20201203/

#WaveAnalysis
#EURUSD rising inside impulse waves 3 and (C)

• Likely to rise to 1.2300

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurusd-wave-analysis-3-december-2020-20201203/

#WaveAnalysis
#Sugar reversed from support zone

• Likely to rise to 15.50

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/sugar-wave-analysis-3-december-2020-20201203/

The dollar weakening is far from over

At the very beginning of the month, EURUSD crossed 1,2000, after which the fall of the dollar began to gain momentum. The Euro broke out of its trading range at 1.16-1.20, where it had spent the last four months, and saw little significant resistance on the way up to 1.25.

The Fed and the US Treasury are strong enough to prevent the dollar from falling, but will they do so for the foreseeable future? It is unlikely that they will. The decline of the dollar to 2 or even 5-year lows is not yet a significant concern for financial markets.

The fed will continue to turn a blind eye to the side effects of a weaker USD for the time being, as this is a benefit to stock and commodity markets, a catalyst for overall macroeconomic activity and increased competitiveness for US export.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/the-dollar-weakening-is-far-from-over-20201204/

The US labour market added 245K jobs in November vs 480K expected and 610K a month earlier, according to the new NFP report. Growth in the private sector and manufacturing was significantly worse than anticipated.

The fall in the unemployment rate from 6.9% to 6.7% is not good news, as it is due to a reduction in the active labour force from 61.7% to 61.5%.

The employment report is mostly weak, formally preventing the dollar from turning around after a decline of more than 1.5% against its main competitors since the beginning of the week.

On the other hand, the weakness of the dollar and hopes for new stimulus have kept US equities from falling.

It is not surprising to see weaker job recovery due to record US fatalities and new cases last month. What was surprising, however, was the optimism in the expectations of economists. Almost certainly the same enthusiasm permeates market participants and that could be a problem if there will be no additional Fed help or relief package from lawmakers.

#WaveAnalysis

#USDCAD broke key support level 1.2940

• Likely to fall to 1.2700

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdcad-wave-analysis-4-december-2020-20201204/

#WaveAnalysis

#Platinum rising inside impulse waves 3, (5)

• Likely to reach 1150

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/platinum-wave-analysis-4-december-2020-20201204/

Good news or bad – markets are growing, but for how long?
Last Friday, the US published a relatively weak jobs report. However, it failed to generate a meaningful sell-off in the markets as investors were encouraged by the legislators’ greater desire to provide stimulus.

Early in November, the stock market steadily grew on positive news about progress with the vaccine.

All this lead to CNN's Fear & Greed Index to the “extreme greed” mode, the last seen in late 2019th.

Optimists should bear in mind that buying assets in the hope of freshly printed money is a perilous strategy. Supporting the economy only covers some of the needs and lightens the recession, but does not reverse it completely.

It is difficult to predict precisely when markets will pull back on lack of optimism. However, it may well turn out that most assets are already sufficiently overbought for mid-term investors, and the yields/risk ratio is not in favour of new buyers this time around.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/good-news-or

#WaveAnalysis
Natural gas (#NTG) broke support level 2.515

• Likely to fall to 2.354

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/natural-gas-wave-analysis-7-december-2020-20201207/

#WaveAnalysis

#GBPUSD reversed from powerful resistance level 1.3480

• Likely to fall to 1.3200

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gbpusd-wave-analysis-7-december-2020-20201207/

Will the ECB be able to reverse the Euro’s growth?

Is the eurozone ready to see export competitiveness squeezed out by the rising Euro against the dollar? Perhaps tomorrow it will be clear what the ECB thinks about this.

Potentially, the ECB has many reasons to try to stop the Euro from growing by easing its policy tomorrow. But the fact is that it is not that easy to do so. Recent history suggests the European Central Bank is often very sluggish to act proactively. Besides, bets are already in negative territory and are criticized for their inefficiency.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/will-the-ecb-be-able-to-reverse-the-euros-growth-20201209/

#WaveAnalysis

#EURCAD falling inside minor wave 2

• Likely to fall to 1.5400

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurcad-wave-analysis-9-december-2020-20201209/

#WaveAnalysis

#Sugar reversed from pivotal support level 14.40

• Likely to rise to 15.50

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/sugar-wave-analysis-9-december-2020-20201209/

US and European policymakers have stifled share growth; will the ECB be next?

EURUSD slid under 1.21 in anticipation of the ECB monetary policy decision and comments. Investors and traders, as in all cases above, have priced in very optimistic hopes for stimulus, suggesting that we will see an expansion of the QE and a new round of lending for banks.

Traders are also waiting with interest to see whether ECB President Lagarde will comment on the 14% growth of the euro against the dollar over the last nine months. Concerns about the strengthening exchange rate may reinforce short-term corrective sentiment in EURUSD.

However, investors may be overly optimistic about the willingness of the ECB to act quickly and decisively. The relative sluggishness of European politicians promises to delay the recovery. However, this may translate into a new growth momentum for the euro.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/us-and-european-policymakers-have-stifled-share-growth-20201210/

The ECB announced new stimulus measures that were broadly in line with expectations, which explains the relatively moderate reaction of the single currency to the central bank's official comments and fresh forecasts.
However, currency traders focused on comments on the euro exchange rate. Lagarde said the appreciation of the euro plays an important role and exercises downward pressure on prices.
The ECB raised its economic forecasts for 2020 and 2022 but lowered those for 2021. These forecasts came out almost at the same time as the disappointing US report, which noted a sharp 137K jump in initial claims to 853K, the highest level since September. The jump reversed an improving trend in the labour market.
It seems that such a sharp deterioration in US data has raised the issue of demand for US assets, which translates into a lower dollar and weaker US stock indices on the NY trading session opening.

#WaveAnalysis

#USDCHF broke support level 0.8900

• Likely to fall to 0.8800

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdchf-wave-analysis-10-december-2020-20201210/

#WaveAnalysis

#GBPAUD falling inside impulse wave C

• Likely to fall to support level 1.7500

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gbpaud-wave-analysis-10-december-2020-20201210/

GBP crushed by EUR & USD on growing chances of a no-deal Brexit

The US dollar is declining for the second day in a row, but GBPUSD stalled again near 1.35.

British Prime Minister Johnson on Thursday noted the ‘strong possibility’ that there will be no trade deal with the EU because of serious disagreements over fishing rights, economic fair play and dispute settlement.

Exiting without a deal could be a severe blow to the British Pound. Over the past two and a half years, GBPUSD has reversed downwards five times from the area near 1.35. The reversal in August this year was the least profound, sending the pair into the 1.27 area vs the average 1.23.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/gbp-crushed-by-eur-usd-on-growing-chances-of-a-no-deal-brexit-20201211/