US labour market recovery unfolds
The US Initial claims number has been increasing for the second consecutive week, with a recent report showing 778K for the week to November 21 vs 748K a week earlier and expectations of a decline to 732K. The upward turn in this indicator threatens the sustainability of data improvement in response to record US morbidity rates.
Deterioration in weekly operational data also threatens the sustainability of the recovery, as we saw in previous monthly indicators.
The total number of claims fell to 6.071M in the week to November 14 (-299K), but the maintenance of the downward trend is at risk amid initial claims continuing to rise.
Traders should bear in mind that the number of continued claims is now 3.5 times higher than before the pandemic. Suspending the return to normal may suppress the recent market optimism, or pause it until the NFP reports are published at the end of next week and contain the retreat of the dollar.
The US Initial claims number has been increasing for the second consecutive week, with a recent report showing 778K for the week to November 21 vs 748K a week earlier and expectations of a decline to 732K. The upward turn in this indicator threatens the sustainability of data improvement in response to record US morbidity rates.
Deterioration in weekly operational data also threatens the sustainability of the recovery, as we saw in previous monthly indicators.
The total number of claims fell to 6.071M in the week to November 14 (-299K), but the maintenance of the downward trend is at risk amid initial claims continuing to rise.
Traders should bear in mind that the number of continued claims is now 3.5 times higher than before the pandemic. Suspending the return to normal may suppress the recent market optimism, or pause it until the NFP reports are published at the end of next week and contain the retreat of the dollar.
The easiest part of Oil’s recovery may be over
Brent’s growth momentum yesterday and the renewal of highs since March are attributed to an unexpected decline in US oil reserves, contrary to forecasts of growth.
The increase in price by one third in November risks turning into massive profit-taking at the end of the month with potential targets on $46 or even $44, depending on the depth of correction. The psychologically important level of $50 probably won’t give up without a fight.
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/the-easiest-part-of-oils-recovery-may-be-over-20201126/
Brent’s growth momentum yesterday and the renewal of highs since March are attributed to an unexpected decline in US oil reserves, contrary to forecasts of growth.
The increase in price by one third in November risks turning into massive profit-taking at the end of the month with potential targets on $46 or even $44, depending on the depth of correction. The psychologically important level of $50 probably won’t give up without a fight.
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/the-easiest-part-of-oils-recovery-may-be-over-20201126/
U.S. markets are closed for Thanksgiving today, and not much data has been published. Among the important data is the publication of the German consumer climate index from GfK, which fell by December to -6.7 vs -3.2 a month earlier and expectations of a decline to -4.9.
A sharp deterioration in consumer confidence was a new obstacle for EURUSD growth, leaving it at 12-week highs and then returning below 1.19.
The new partial lockdown significantly dampens consumer sentiment in Germany. The graph clearly shows how negatively coronavirus restrictions have affected consumer confidence. By a wide margin, the index was not so low during the global financial crisis and its aftermath, when the German economy lost 8% YoY.
The drop in consumer confidence in the USA wasn’t so sharp, falling only to 5-year lows. The latest estimates, earlier in the week, showed a decline, but not as deep.
A sharp deterioration in consumer confidence was a new obstacle for EURUSD growth, leaving it at 12-week highs and then returning below 1.19.
The new partial lockdown significantly dampens consumer sentiment in Germany. The graph clearly shows how negatively coronavirus restrictions have affected consumer confidence. By a wide margin, the index was not so low during the global financial crisis and its aftermath, when the German economy lost 8% YoY.
The drop in consumer confidence in the USA wasn’t so sharp, falling only to 5-year lows. The latest estimates, earlier in the week, showed a decline, but not as deep.
NZD & AUD adding on fast recovery and hopes for further BoJ’s QE
The Australian dollar trades at 0.7370 on Friday morning, which is the peak area for the end of August 2020 and December 2018. It has been adding more than 5.2% since the beginning of the month. Growth above 0.7400 will be an exit into the area of more than two-year highs and will cross out the slump of the China-US trade wars.
The New Zealand dollar crossed 0.7000 this week and is at 29-month highs, adding more than 6.2% this month.
These currencies are in demand from investors in Japan, a country with chronically low-interest rates. This morning, this interest may have been further fuelled by weak macroeconomic data. Prices in Tokyo increased the decline in November to -0.7% YoY, compared to -0.3% a month earlier.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/nzd-aud-adding-on-fast-recovery-and-hopes-for-further-bojs-qe-20201127/
The Australian dollar trades at 0.7370 on Friday morning, which is the peak area for the end of August 2020 and December 2018. It has been adding more than 5.2% since the beginning of the month. Growth above 0.7400 will be an exit into the area of more than two-year highs and will cross out the slump of the China-US trade wars.
The New Zealand dollar crossed 0.7000 this week and is at 29-month highs, adding more than 6.2% this month.
These currencies are in demand from investors in Japan, a country with chronically low-interest rates. This morning, this interest may have been further fuelled by weak macroeconomic data. Prices in Tokyo increased the decline in November to -0.7% YoY, compared to -0.3% a month earlier.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/nzd-aud-adding-on-fast-recovery-and-hopes-for-further-bojs-qe-20201127/
#WaveAnalysis
#Silver broke key support level 22.80
• Likely to fall to 21.65
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/silver-wave-analysis-27-november-2020-20201127/
#Silver broke key support level 22.80
• Likely to fall to 21.65
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/silver-wave-analysis-27-november-2020-20201127/
#WaveAnalysis
#AUDUSD approaching key resistance level 0.7410
• Likely to rise to 0.7600
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audusd-wave-analysis-27-november-2020-20201127/
#AUDUSD approaching key resistance level 0.7410
• Likely to rise to 0.7600
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audusd-wave-analysis-27-november-2020-20201127/
Stock markets: is the glass half-empty or half-full?
The markets are altering slightly at the beginning of the week, but this is unlikely to override the previous achievements of this month. Partly due to the effect of a low base after the drop at the end of last month, the MSCI World Global Markets Index has increased 13% in November, the strongest monthly growth in the index’s history.
Interestingly, the slight weakening in equities is not observed by all markets. European currencies are developing an upward trend against the dollar. EURUSD extends its invasion in the area of 3-month peaks above 1.1970. The bulls are targeting the test of 1.2000.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/stock-markets-is-the-glass-half-empty-or-half-full-20201130/
The markets are altering slightly at the beginning of the week, but this is unlikely to override the previous achievements of this month. Partly due to the effect of a low base after the drop at the end of last month, the MSCI World Global Markets Index has increased 13% in November, the strongest monthly growth in the index’s history.
Interestingly, the slight weakening in equities is not observed by all markets. European currencies are developing an upward trend against the dollar. EURUSD extends its invasion in the area of 3-month peaks above 1.1970. The bulls are targeting the test of 1.2000.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/stock-markets-is-the-glass-half-empty-or-half-full-20201130/
Gold at the beginning of the week is developing a decline, which also indicates a reversal of the trend of recent months. The precious metal corrects the two-year upward trend that started in August-October 2018 from a level of $1180 to a record $2000.
Today’s shift in stock market sentiment has not brought buyers back to gold, which fell to $1765, setting the tone for the temporary nature of the share drawdown.
The situation with oil is even more complicated. Despite 2.5 year lows of the dollar index, Brent has been losing more than 1% since the beginning of the day, rolling back after the peaks touched in the middle of last week.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/stock-markets-is-the-glass-half-empty-or-half-full-20201130/
Today’s shift in stock market sentiment has not brought buyers back to gold, which fell to $1765, setting the tone for the temporary nature of the share drawdown.
The situation with oil is even more complicated. Despite 2.5 year lows of the dollar index, Brent has been losing more than 1% since the beginning of the day, rolling back after the peaks touched in the middle of last week.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/stock-markets-is-the-glass-half-empty-or-half-full-20201130/
#WaveAnalysis
#GBPAUD reversed from support level 1.8000
• Likely to rise to 1.8280
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gbpaud-wave-analysis-30-november-2020-20201130/
#GBPAUD reversed from support level 1.8000
• Likely to rise to 1.8280
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gbpaud-wave-analysis-30-november-2020-20201130/
#WaveAnalysis
#EURAUD reversed from support level 1.6140
• Likely to rise to 1.6345
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/euraud-wave-analysis-30-november-2020-20201130/
#EURAUD reversed from support level 1.6140
• Likely to rise to 1.6345
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/euraud-wave-analysis-30-november-2020-20201130/
The dollar returns to decline in the new month
After touching 1.2000, EURUSD fell sharply by 80 points. It is worth noting that this sell-off stopped as soon as the new day began, pushing the pair to 1.1960.
The confident return of buyers to EURUSD causes us to believe that we will see the pair testing this resistance at 1.2000 again soon.
Under these circumstances, the pair is indeed preparing to enter a new trading range, presumably with the lower boundary at 1.2000 and the upper boundary at 1.2300-1.2500, near the peak area of early 2018.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/the-dollar-returns-to-decline-in-the-new-month-20201201/
After touching 1.2000, EURUSD fell sharply by 80 points. It is worth noting that this sell-off stopped as soon as the new day began, pushing the pair to 1.1960.
The confident return of buyers to EURUSD causes us to believe that we will see the pair testing this resistance at 1.2000 again soon.
Under these circumstances, the pair is indeed preparing to enter a new trading range, presumably with the lower boundary at 1.2000 and the upper boundary at 1.2300-1.2500, near the peak area of early 2018.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/the-dollar-returns-to-decline-in-the-new-month-20201201/
Interestingly, even gold has suspended its decline on the first day of the final month of the year and went up above $1810 (+2%) today.
The rise in the euro and Nasdaq100 were typical Gold rally satellites earlier this year. Having rebounded from the peaks of August at around $300, it could attract renewed demand from investors as all the factors that pulled the Gold price up in previous months are again in force.
This includes ultra-soft monetary policy and inflation tolerance, to the abnormal supply of public debt, which nourishes interest in alternative instruments to preserve the value of capital.
The rise in the euro and Nasdaq100 were typical Gold rally satellites earlier this year. Having rebounded from the peaks of August at around $300, it could attract renewed demand from investors as all the factors that pulled the Gold price up in previous months are again in force.
This includes ultra-soft monetary policy and inflation tolerance, to the abnormal supply of public debt, which nourishes interest in alternative instruments to preserve the value of capital.
🚀 EURUSD flew to 1.2016, to new 31-month high. Will the rally continue?
Anonymous Poll
57%
BUY
43%
SELL
#WaveAnalysis
#Silver reversed from support area
• Likely to test next resistance level 25.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/silver-wave-analysis-1-december-2020-20201201/
#Silver reversed from support area
• Likely to test next resistance level 25.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/silver-wave-analysis-1-december-2020-20201201/
#WaveAnalysis
#AUDNZD reversed from key resistance level 1.0550
• Likely to fall to 1.0400
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audnzd-wave-analysis-1-december-2020-20201201/
#AUDNZD reversed from key resistance level 1.0550
• Likely to fall to 1.0400
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audnzd-wave-analysis-1-december-2020-20201201/
Dollar weakness takes EURUSD to a new range
The single currency rose sharply on Tuesday evening, taking EURUSD to 1,2080, new highs since April 2018, due to a difference in macroeconomic data. The sharp jump broke the established trading range and potentially opened the way for growth in the area of 1.2000-1.2500.
Rising by 1.2%, the euro was the hero yesterday, but this leadership is unlikely to please the ECB. They had previously noted with dissatisfaction the negative effects of the growth of the euro, which is damaging export potential and creating deflationary risks in the economy. Several observers are expecting measures to curb its growth as early as next week’s ECB meeting.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/dollar-weakness-takes-eurusd-to-a-new-range-20201202/
The single currency rose sharply on Tuesday evening, taking EURUSD to 1,2080, new highs since April 2018, due to a difference in macroeconomic data. The sharp jump broke the established trading range and potentially opened the way for growth in the area of 1.2000-1.2500.
Rising by 1.2%, the euro was the hero yesterday, but this leadership is unlikely to please the ECB. They had previously noted with dissatisfaction the negative effects of the growth of the euro, which is damaging export potential and creating deflationary risks in the economy. Several observers are expecting measures to curb its growth as early as next week’s ECB meeting.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/dollar-weakness-takes-eurusd-to-a-new-range-20201202/
New employment data from the ADP for November has spurred fears that the labour market is losing momentum. The private sector added 307K new jobs, which is noticeably weaker than the 433K expected and 404K a month earlier.
So instead of the anticipated acceleration of the labour market recovery, we are witnessing further decay in this area - a worrying signal ahead of Friday's labour market report.
Recently we received similar evidence of a weaker recovery that dragged the dollar lower. EURUSD returned to growth a little earlier in the day and received a new growth impulse after the ADP report.
Five Fed members' speeches later today, as well as the publication of the Beige Book, could potentially reverse the sentiment on the dollar. However, the example of yesterday's Powell speech in Congress makes us somewhat cautious about the immediate future of the USD.
So instead of the anticipated acceleration of the labour market recovery, we are witnessing further decay in this area - a worrying signal ahead of Friday's labour market report.
Recently we received similar evidence of a weaker recovery that dragged the dollar lower. EURUSD returned to growth a little earlier in the day and received a new growth impulse after the ADP report.
Five Fed members' speeches later today, as well as the publication of the Beige Book, could potentially reverse the sentiment on the dollar. However, the example of yesterday's Powell speech in Congress makes us somewhat cautious about the immediate future of the USD.
#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY broke pivotal resistance level 125.00
• Likely to rise to 127.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurjpy-wave-analysis-2-december-2020-20201202/
#EURJPY broke pivotal resistance level 125.00
• Likely to rise to 127.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurjpy-wave-analysis-2-december-2020-20201202/
#WaveAnalysis
#USDCHF broke round support level 0.9000
• Likely to fall to 0.8900
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdchf-wave-analysis-2-december-2020-20201202/
#USDCHF broke round support level 0.9000
• Likely to fall to 0.8900
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdchf-wave-analysis-2-december-2020-20201202/
Oil Rally brought back controversy in OPEC+
Oil grew throughout November but somewhat lost momentum at the end of the month. The events of early December bring back optimism in oil quotes, suggesting that the rally could develop in the coming weeks.
Production is developing recovery in key economic regions, meaning that there is no need for production restrictions as tight as they were in March. The current quotas could likely be extended by a month or two, followed by further smooth increases. This is at least in the plans. Brent quotes may be able to grow to $50 before the end of this year and approach $60 by the end of 2021.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/oil-rally-brought-back-controversy-in-opec-20201203/
Oil grew throughout November but somewhat lost momentum at the end of the month. The events of early December bring back optimism in oil quotes, suggesting that the rally could develop in the coming weeks.
Production is developing recovery in key economic regions, meaning that there is no need for production restrictions as tight as they were in March. The current quotas could likely be extended by a month or two, followed by further smooth increases. This is at least in the plans. Brent quotes may be able to grow to $50 before the end of this year and approach $60 by the end of 2021.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/oil-rally-brought-back-controversy-in-opec-20201203/