The Australian dollar is under some pressure on Thursday, retreating in the wake of reduced demand for risk in global markets. However, labour market data from the country was one of the few bright spots this morning.
According to the latest data, in October, employment jumped by 178.8K vs expected -26.7K. The jobs market in Australia is recovering with an almost V-shaped trajectory.
The recovery in other countries, and especially in the USA, is unlike this shape, so no wonder AUDUSD is now higher than it was before the pandemic. The pair is now at levels where it last traded steadily in late 2018.
The general cautious sentiment has constrained growth in the Aussie over the past three days. One should not forget about the recent QE expansion and lowering of rates. However, strong job data is reminiscent of how AUD behaved after the global financial crisis, surpassing its 2008-peak by 15% in just two years, unlike the euro, pound and many commodity currencies.
According to the latest data, in October, employment jumped by 178.8K vs expected -26.7K. The jobs market in Australia is recovering with an almost V-shaped trajectory.
The recovery in other countries, and especially in the USA, is unlike this shape, so no wonder AUDUSD is now higher than it was before the pandemic. The pair is now at levels where it last traded steadily in late 2018.
The general cautious sentiment has constrained growth in the Aussie over the past three days. One should not forget about the recent QE expansion and lowering of rates. However, strong job data is reminiscent of how AUD behaved after the global financial crisis, surpassing its 2008-peak by 15% in just two years, unlike the euro, pound and many commodity currencies.
#WaveAnalysis
#NaturalGas broke pivotal support level 2.655
• Likely to fall to 2.4000
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/natural-gas-wave-analysis-19-november-2020-20201119/
#NaturalGas broke pivotal support level 2.655
• Likely to fall to 2.4000
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/natural-gas-wave-analysis-19-november-2020-20201119/
US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has asked the Fed to return the unused $455 billion allocated to the business lending programme to Congress to be reallocated. The winding down of this programme is causing markets nervousness on signs of a divided Fed and US Treasury.
The Fed does its part by continuing to buy assets on its balance sheet. Published data showed a weekly increase of $67.7 billion, the second most significant weekly increase since May. Probably related to this is that the US indices were able to stay in line with the level of a week ago.
But only Fed-driven market growth is raising questions about the sustainability of the dollar. The dollar index fell for the second time this month to 92 and it was briefly below this at the end of August. The dollar index has not been steady below this level since April 2018.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/the-dollars-slow-melting-is-a-positive-sign-20201120/
The Fed does its part by continuing to buy assets on its balance sheet. Published data showed a weekly increase of $67.7 billion, the second most significant weekly increase since May. Probably related to this is that the US indices were able to stay in line with the level of a week ago.
But only Fed-driven market growth is raising questions about the sustainability of the dollar. The dollar index fell for the second time this month to 92 and it was briefly below this at the end of August. The dollar index has not been steady below this level since April 2018.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/the-dollars-slow-melting-is-a-positive-sign-20201120/
Interestingly, the volatility of the currency market remains moderate or is even slightly declining. Approaching the boundaries of established trading ranges is so far accompanied by gentle attempts to push the dollar back and nothing more.
The global retreat of the dollar is broken down into a series of local battles in individual currency pairs. EURUSD is once again getting closer to 1.1900. It looks like the last stronghold before 1.2000 and attempts of the pair to enter the next trading range of 1.2000-1.2400.
GBPUSD is close to 1.33, above which it has not consolidated since July 2018. Overcoming this resistance will open the path to the range of 1.33-1.43.
USDJPY is now slightly below 104, but as with the pound and the Euro, the pair is on the verge of breaking out of the trading range of recent years.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/the-dollars-slow-melting-is-a-positive-sign-20201120/
The global retreat of the dollar is broken down into a series of local battles in individual currency pairs. EURUSD is once again getting closer to 1.1900. It looks like the last stronghold before 1.2000 and attempts of the pair to enter the next trading range of 1.2000-1.2400.
GBPUSD is close to 1.33, above which it has not consolidated since July 2018. Overcoming this resistance will open the path to the range of 1.33-1.43.
USDJPY is now slightly below 104, but as with the pound and the Euro, the pair is on the verge of breaking out of the trading range of recent years.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/the-dollars-slow-melting-is-a-positive-sign-20201120/
Pound didn't dare to test 1.33, despite strong sales data
The British pound failed yet another attempt today to break above 1.3300, despite help from macroeconomic data. However, regardless of the fail in this local battle, the strong growth in retail sales allows us to look at the pound with some optimism.
The latest report showed retail sales grew by 1.2% in October and 5.8% from the same month last year. This is distinctly better than the forecasted drop by 0.3% m/m and a slowdown to 4.2% YoY from 4.6%. Sales ex-fuel added 7.8% YoY in October.
Post-publication pressure on GBPUSD could prove to be a temporary tug on the dollar on Friday and a reluctance to cross the psychologically important 1.33 by the end of the week.
It is interesting to see whether GBPUSD will be the first to go beyond the established range of recent years or if it will confirm its resilience.
The British pound failed yet another attempt today to break above 1.3300, despite help from macroeconomic data. However, regardless of the fail in this local battle, the strong growth in retail sales allows us to look at the pound with some optimism.
The latest report showed retail sales grew by 1.2% in October and 5.8% from the same month last year. This is distinctly better than the forecasted drop by 0.3% m/m and a slowdown to 4.2% YoY from 4.6%. Sales ex-fuel added 7.8% YoY in October.
Post-publication pressure on GBPUSD could prove to be a temporary tug on the dollar on Friday and a reluctance to cross the psychologically important 1.33 by the end of the week.
It is interesting to see whether GBPUSD will be the first to go beyond the established range of recent years or if it will confirm its resilience.
#WaveAnalysis
#NZDUSD broke resistance area
• Likely to rise to 0,7000
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdusd-wave-analysis-20-november-2020-20201120/
#NZDUSD broke resistance area
• Likely to rise to 0,7000
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdusd-wave-analysis-20-november-2020-20201120/
#WaveAnalysis
#Gold reversed from support level 1850.00
• Likely to rise to 1900.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gold-wave-analysis-20-november-2020-20201120/
#Gold reversed from support level 1850.00
• Likely to rise to 1900.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gold-wave-analysis-20-november-2020-20201120/
GBPUSD exceeded 1.3380 this morning. Friday’s retail sales figures have significantly exceeded expectations, supporting the growth of the pound. Besides, there is news of progress in UK trade negotiations with other countries, which also reduces the risk of adverse consequences and leaving the EU without agreements with major trading partners.
GBPUSD has tried unsuccessfully to gain a foothold above 1.33 for the last two and a half years. The pullback after the September setback has been relatively modest, tuning it to strengthen pair purchasing, which increases the chances of success for the bulls this time.
The situation against the dollar is exacerbated by the fact that the US is currently discussing a support package of only $500 billion instead of 2 trillion. For markets, this means less US government bond issuance and less demand for dollars from abroad.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/economic-optimism-causes-dollar-retreat-20201123/
GBPUSD has tried unsuccessfully to gain a foothold above 1.33 for the last two and a half years. The pullback after the September setback has been relatively modest, tuning it to strengthen pair purchasing, which increases the chances of success for the bulls this time.
The situation against the dollar is exacerbated by the fact that the US is currently discussing a support package of only $500 billion instead of 2 trillion. For markets, this means less US government bond issuance and less demand for dollars from abroad.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/economic-optimism-causes-dollar-retreat-20201123/
Aussie and Kiwi on the rise
NZDUSD reached a 2-year high of 0.6961 after the release of solid retail sales data. The area of 0.68-0.70 has been an important area of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears for the last five years. The pair’s ability to reach above 0.70 sustainably opens up a growth potential of 0.74-0.75 – the area of its peak in 2016-2018. New Zealand avoided a second coronavirus wave, recording single cases of new infections and a total of 2030 (1953 cured). Thus, the economic damage to the economy promises to be minimal.
This is roughly the same in Australia, which has consistently enjoyed strong business data. In addition to the very strong employment growth data published last week, strong reports on the manufacturing and service have been added. AUDUSD is trampling around 0.73. It is also in an area of peaks in the last two years.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/economic-optimism-causes-dollar-retreat-20201123/
NZDUSD reached a 2-year high of 0.6961 after the release of solid retail sales data. The area of 0.68-0.70 has been an important area of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears for the last five years. The pair’s ability to reach above 0.70 sustainably opens up a growth potential of 0.74-0.75 – the area of its peak in 2016-2018. New Zealand avoided a second coronavirus wave, recording single cases of new infections and a total of 2030 (1953 cured). Thus, the economic damage to the economy promises to be minimal.
This is roughly the same in Australia, which has consistently enjoyed strong business data. In addition to the very strong employment growth data published last week, strong reports on the manufacturing and service have been added. AUDUSD is trampling around 0.73. It is also in an area of peaks in the last two years.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/economic-optimism-causes-dollar-retreat-20201123/
The data from the US today came as a pleasant surprise to the dollar. Preliminary PMI numbers showed an increase in the composite index from 56.3 to 57.9 against an expected drop to 54.5. Both the manufacturing and service sector activity component exceeded expectations and increased markedly from last month. This contrasts sharply with US records for daily illness, death and new lockdowns measures.
On the contrary, earlier today, European estimates were surprisingly weak. The Composite Index collapsed from 50 to 45.1.
The PMI is a significant driver for the movement of the currency and stock markets in times of high uncertainty, as it is an excellent indicator of turning points in the economy. In this case, the sharp contrast in data from Europe and the US was clearly in favour of a decline of the euro against the dollar, as we see in the first minutes after publication, EURUSD is once again not rising above 1.1900.
On the contrary, earlier today, European estimates were surprisingly weak. The Composite Index collapsed from 50 to 45.1.
The PMI is a significant driver for the movement of the currency and stock markets in times of high uncertainty, as it is an excellent indicator of turning points in the economy. In this case, the sharp contrast in data from Europe and the US was clearly in favour of a decline of the euro against the dollar, as we see in the first minutes after publication, EURUSD is once again not rising above 1.1900.
Thanksgiving Day: trading time schedule changes
On November 26, 2020, America will celebrate Thanksgiving Day. Therefore, trading time schedule of several financial classes will be changed on November 26 and 27.
The following instruments will be affected:
- Agricultural Commodity Futures
- Energy Futures
- Indices Futures
- Spot Indices
- Spot Energies
- Spot Metals
- US Shares
Find all the details in our Market Holidays calendar: https://www.fxpro.com/trading-tools/market-holidays
If you have any questions, feel free to contact the FxPro Customer support team via email support@fxpro.com.
On November 26, 2020, America will celebrate Thanksgiving Day. Therefore, trading time schedule of several financial classes will be changed on November 26 and 27.
The following instruments will be affected:
- Agricultural Commodity Futures
- Energy Futures
- Indices Futures
- Spot Indices
- Spot Energies
- Spot Metals
- US Shares
Find all the details in our Market Holidays calendar: https://www.fxpro.com/trading-tools/market-holidays
If you have any questions, feel free to contact the FxPro Customer support team via email support@fxpro.com.
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Dollar secured a major level vs euro
Overnight, EURUSD once again failed to overcome 1.19. As in numerous times over the last three months, the bear attack from this level was powerful, leading the pair below 1.18 in a matter of hours. The momentum of the dollar’s appreciation was short-lived, as it was due to strong data rather than the markets fleeing to safe-assets. Soon after, investors switched to buying risk assets and related currencies.
EURUSD had already reversed half of yesterday’s rollback by Tuesday morning, trading at 1.1850. The recovery in demand for risk assets often plays against the dollar, forcing it to retreat even against the euro. Thus, the dollar has received local support from an important level to the euro but continues to retreat on other fronts. Therefore, the rebound of the dollar index from the 2-year low area risks being short-lived.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/dollar-secured-a-major-level-vs-euro-but-retreats-against-other-instruments-20201124/
Overnight, EURUSD once again failed to overcome 1.19. As in numerous times over the last three months, the bear attack from this level was powerful, leading the pair below 1.18 in a matter of hours. The momentum of the dollar’s appreciation was short-lived, as it was due to strong data rather than the markets fleeing to safe-assets. Soon after, investors switched to buying risk assets and related currencies.
EURUSD had already reversed half of yesterday’s rollback by Tuesday morning, trading at 1.1850. The recovery in demand for risk assets often plays against the dollar, forcing it to retreat even against the euro. Thus, the dollar has received local support from an important level to the euro but continues to retreat on other fronts. Therefore, the rebound of the dollar index from the 2-year low area risks being short-lived.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/dollar-secured-a-major-level-vs-euro-but-retreats-against-other-instruments-20201124/
Gold has fallen out of the trading range of the last 4.5 months, trading at $1830. By contrast, oil has soared to highs since March. Brent traded at $46.50, again testing the highs of August and earlier in the morning touched the highest values since March at $46.66. WTI has similar dynamics, rising to $43.50.
The recovery in oil quotes is fuelling strong demand for stocks of raw materials and energy companies, which added 4%-15% yesterday while continuing Crude Oil growth pushes them even higher today.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/dollar-secured-a-major-level-vs-euro-but-retreats-against-other-instruments-20201124/
The recovery in oil quotes is fuelling strong demand for stocks of raw materials and energy companies, which added 4%-15% yesterday while continuing Crude Oil growth pushes them even higher today.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/dollar-secured-a-major-level-vs-euro-but-retreats-against-other-instruments-20201124/
Recently, there seems to be an intensified struggle between Europe and the USA for whose macroeconomic performance will more strongly exceed expectations. Yesterday it was the USA and today, it is Germany’s turn.
Germany's GDP recovery in Q3 was 8.5%, reducing its annual decline to 3.9%, according to a final estimate (no revision from +8.2% was expected). A little later, the Ifo Business Environment Index came out at 90.7 in November, showing a smaller decline than predicted and causing the euro to rise within reach of 1.19.
This tug-of-war continues to play into the hands of commodities and stock markets, where futures on the Dow are again just shy of 30,000.
Gold is the main victim of this optimism. The price per ounce has fallen below $1810 (-1.5%), to its lowest level since late July.
Germany's GDP recovery in Q3 was 8.5%, reducing its annual decline to 3.9%, according to a final estimate (no revision from +8.2% was expected). A little later, the Ifo Business Environment Index came out at 90.7 in November, showing a smaller decline than predicted and causing the euro to rise within reach of 1.19.
This tug-of-war continues to play into the hands of commodities and stock markets, where futures on the Dow are again just shy of 30,000.
Gold is the main victim of this optimism. The price per ounce has fallen below $1810 (-1.5%), to its lowest level since late July.
Brent Crude grew to $46.50, to 7-months top. Will the rally continue?
Anonymous Poll
60%
BUY
40%
SELL
#WaveAnalysis
#Gold broke support zone
• Likely to fall to $1763
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gold-wave-analysis-24-november-2020-20201124/
#Gold broke support zone
• Likely to fall to $1763
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gold-wave-analysis-24-november-2020-20201124/