Markets’ altitude sickness returns the interest to the dollar

Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500, we see the same symptoms approaching the levels of 30,000 and 3600. Nasdaq 100 got its weakness near 12,000 and the German DAX30 at levels above 13,000, an important resistance area this year.

The foreign exchange market has been reacting all week to the risks of new restrictions, first by ignoring the optimism and now by the partial fixing of gains in stocks.

EURUSD fell from an area above 1.1900, where the pair was on Monday, to 1.1760.

The strengthening of the dollar yesterday shifted to the pound and the renminbi. However, today we see a much broader growth of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market, pulling down the New Zealand dollar from 19-month highs at 0.69 and the Australian dollar from levels above 0.73.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/markets-altitude-sickness-returns-the-interest-to-the-dollar-20201112/

Inflation data for Germany and the USA published today highlighting the general trend (slowing) and the significant differences in the current state of the European and US economies.

In October, prices in Germany were -0.2% YoY and in the USA, +1.2%. A 5% weakening of the dollar index over the past 12 months seems helped the US to maintain a higher inflation level.

The inflationary picture in the eurozone requires more work from the ECB than the situation in the US requires from the Fed. From this comparison, monetary policy in Europe should be considerably more eased, putting pressure on EURUSD.

However, this approach acts on the premise of "all things being equal". In life, things are never equal. The Fed often acts more proactively, both in the softening of policy and the consideration of tightening. On the other hand, the wheel of the ECB has traditionally been spinning longer and with slower stops. So investors and traders should look at the bigger picture, which is somewhat complicated.

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EURGBP reversed from support zone

• Likely to rise to 0.9055

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurgbp-wave-analysis-12-november-2020-20201112/

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#EURAUD reversed from long-term support level 1,6160

• Likely to rise to 1,6400

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/euraud-wave-analysis-12-november-2020-20201112/

Markets are retreating from extremes, not daring to enter a new phase

We pointed out previously that this week, key stock indices have lost their growth momentum near local highs. On Thursday, a similar performance was cemented for the currency market as pairs rolled back from local extremums without daring to break through trading ranges.

EURUSD this week made another unsuccessful attempt to climb solidly above 1.1900 and to repeat the test of the psychologically important level 1.2000. The pair quickly dropped to 1.1750 and then returned to 1.1800. The dynamics signalled that it was too early for markets to move to a new stage. EURUSD decreased to 1.1600 in the second half of September and during October, so we could now see a repeat of this move.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/markets-are-retreating-from-extremes-not-daring-to-enter-a-new-phase-20201113/

GBPUSD failed to grow above 1.3300, falling back to 1.3130 by Friday morning. For GBPUSD, the first line of support could be the area 1.29 (lows of early November), and a deeper correction could send the pair to 1.27. There is a support area in September, a 200-day average and a 61.8% Fibonacci correction line from the March-September rally.

Outside Europe, AUDUSD declined after briefly touching levels above 0.73, potentially targeting a return to 0.7000.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/markets-are-retreating-from-extremes-not-daring-to-enter-a-new-phase-20201113/

The USDCNH made a U-turn this week and became one of the early indicators of optimism soothing in the markets.

However, the yuan could also be negatively affected by the failure of Ant’s IPO, sending a signal of dissatisfaction from the authorities regarding the astronomical strengthening and expanding influences of the country’s IT companies.

An article in the WSJ states that the potentially largest IPO in history, with unprecedented investor excitement, was personally stopped by Xi Jinping. Merging and increasing in power high-tech, online commerce and finance companies have been a driver of growth in the US market, but have displeased Chinese leaders. This potentially casts a shadow over the growth of the entire market, where authorities can restrict online trading as they did five years ago.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/markets-are-retreating-from-extremes-not-daring-to-enter-a-new-phase-20201113/

For the second time this year, the Coronavirus impact is increasingly evident in macroeconomic reports. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index has interrupted the recovery, falling from 81.8 to 77, according to a preliminary November estimate. The reversal came from 2014 levels, clearly indicating that consumers are still wary of spending.

It is clear to see that the recovery of the index has not kept pace with the growth of stock markets, retail sales and the housing market, where we have already seen peaks being exceeded. Weak consumer sentiment raises the issue of the need to further stimulate the economy, which has been delayed by politicians.

An additional worrying factor is an increase in long-term inflation expectations. 5-years inflation expectations have bottomed out in February and are gradually growing. Financial markets have seen a rise in the yields of 10 and 30-year bonds, which also reflects higher inflationary expectations.

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#Amazon reversed from round support level 3000.00

• Likely to rise to 3377.00

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/amazon-wave-analysis-13-november-2020-20201113/

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#Gold reversed from support zone

• Likely to rise to 1967.00

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gold-wave-analysis-13-november-2020-20201113/

Optimists are pushing shares up and the dollar down
The financial markets this week start with a new wave of optimism and buying of risk assets. Many Asian indices have updated record levels this morning, while MSCI Asia Pacific without Japan is adding 1%. At the same time, the Nikkei 225 settled at 29-year highs.

There are big questions about how steady the demand for stocks will be near record highs. Thus, it will be reasonable for short-term traders to observe how the US indices will behave near the highs. The new downward turn this week will definitively confirm that the markets are dominated by upside sales, which can have broad implications for many assets.

Short-term uncertainty also surrounds EURUSD, which earlier today rose to 1.1855. A new test at 1.1900 and confidently overcoming this level could be the start of a large weakening rally for the dollar with a potential of 1.2300. The new reversal will finally confirm the bulls' weakness, once again focusing on the potential for a decline to 1.1600.

More markets and currencies set to enter a post-pandemic stage
A new round of vaccine news has returned to the markets the rotation of energy, financial and defence stocks. Dow Jones was the growth leader among the three leading Wall Street indices, adding 1.6%, against 1.2% in the S&P500 and 0.8% in the Nasdaq100.

Interestingly, the small-cap stock indices on Monday soared even stronger with the S&P600 Smallcap having added 2.9% and Russell2000 jumped 2.4%, adding to more than 6% growth last week and rewriting its all-time highs.

The dynamics of cyclical stocks, small capitalisation companies and several currencies note that markets are now on the verge of entering a new phase, and in some places have already crossed this line.

Such a breakthrough is likely to be the first reliable signal that life is on its way back to normal, even if it is not apparent right now. Failure to reach a new level could be a signal for another sell-off in the stock and currency markets in the coming weeks.

This fundamental change in index dynamics promises to have an impact on currency markets as well. Investor interest in commodity assets has been pushed up by the Mexican peso, the South African rand and the Russian rouble. All have added over 5% to the US dollar so far this month. As oil is undergoing an important test near September highs of around $42 for WTI, ZAR and MXN have already been at their peaks since early March. This is due to the expectation of a recovery in export demand, which is coupled with a tighter monetary policy. For example, USDMXN at current levels is much closer to returning to the trading range the pair was in before the pandemic (18.50-20.20).

The Chinese yuan is now a correspondent to small-cap stocks, as business in China is based on millions of small companies servicing large factories and corporations. At present, USDCNH has been developing its decline since May, falling into the 6.56 area, where it last traded at the beginning of the 2018 trade wars.

US retail sales in October fell short of expectations, adding 0.3% vs forecasted +0.5% and +1.6% a month earlier. Separately, the import price index declined by 0.1% m/m against expected growth of 0.2%.

Weaker US economic data increased pressure on the dollar, sending EURUSD close to 1.1900 and USDJPY to 104.0, as a sluggish economic recovery increases the chances of an expansion of the Fed's QE program in December.

Seven FOMC members are scheduled to speak later today, which could increase market volatility. If we hear a coordinated signal from the Fed members, the dollar and markets will be able to take a big step.

For EURUSD, this step could be a move beyond 1.1900 or to receive another downside impulse. For the stock market, a continuation of the rally or a reversal to decline is on the cards. The Fed is often on the side of a weak dollar and strong markets, but now that the markets have gone too far in this direction, won't the Fed want to cool them down?

#WaveAnalysis

#USDJPY reversed from resistance area

• Likely to fall to 103.25

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdjpy-wave-analysis-17-november-2020-20201117/

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#Soybean broke resistance level 1161.50

• Likely to rise to 1200.00

World markets step back from peaks

Global markets are retreating from their recent highs due to signs of a weakening recovery. In recent days, we saw a decline in the US consumer sentiment and a slowdown in retail sales growth.

We observed earlier that stock indices have skyrocketed, and further dynamics will be very indicative. Yesterday and this morning, investors are inclined to sell stocks after the recent rally, allowing them to touch areas above 3,600 on the S&P 500 and 30,000 on the Dow Jones.

It is also worth paying attention to USDJPY as an important indicator of risk demand. Earlier this month it was down to 103.25 and then rushed upwards to 105.60 in the expansion of the Bank of Japan QE and the post-election rally. But since last Thursday it has been systematically down, falling again below 104.0 this morning.

Euro's changing role
The weakening of the dollar feeds interest in equities and commodities. However, it may be the case today that the decline of the dollar is driven by cautions that it will save its purchasing power rather than a desire to invest in risk-related assets.

Several times we have seen evidence that a steady strengthening of the yen often goes hand in hand with or precedes a weakening of the markets.

At the same time, the euro, replicating the yen, is also moving to its local highs, having settled at 1.1900. These dynamics make us wonder whether the euro has changed from risky to protective status. In this case, the rise of the euro is bad news for markets and especially for European markets, where EURO50 has only recently managed to break through to its highs since March, and the DAX30 is stuck above 13000.

#WaveAnalysis

#Platinum reversed from support level 917.00

• Likely to rise to 987.00

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/platinum-wave-analysis-18-november-2020-20201118/