US Elections: For markets, it doesn’t matter who wins, but how quickly
Americans have already cast their votes, all that remains now is to clarify results definitively. Preliminary results (about 85% of the votes counted) show a shaky Biden leadership. 449 out of 538 votes counted: 236 for Biden vs 213 for Trump.
Interestingly, the markets are reacting very calmly. The pre-election uncertainty is now approaching its end, benefiting the American currency. It has regained its losses since the beginning of the month, and the dollar index briefly touched the highs of late September.
Investors and traders were in a hurry to buy back stock indices this week, after S&P500 touched 3200, the lower bound of the trading range since July.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/us-elections-for-markets-it-doesnt-matter-who-wins-but-how-quickly-20201104/
Americans have already cast their votes, all that remains now is to clarify results definitively. Preliminary results (about 85% of the votes counted) show a shaky Biden leadership. 449 out of 538 votes counted: 236 for Biden vs 213 for Trump.
Interestingly, the markets are reacting very calmly. The pre-election uncertainty is now approaching its end, benefiting the American currency. It has regained its losses since the beginning of the month, and the dollar index briefly touched the highs of late September.
Investors and traders were in a hurry to buy back stock indices this week, after S&P500 touched 3200, the lower bound of the trading range since July.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/us-elections-for-markets-it-doesnt-matter-who-wins-but-how-quickly-20201104/
Both candidates, Trump and Biden, retain their chances for a win, but now the macro data takes its turn. Recent ADP statistics have disappointed the weak growth in private sector employment. The report says that the private sector added 365K new jobs in October, compared to 753K a month earlier and expectations of 650K.
The recovery in the labour market has clearly slowed down. The V-shaped rebound in the first two months was followed by increasingly slower recovery. Its current growth rate is only twice as high as the average monthly growth of the last five years (180K).
This data could be an alarming sign to the Fed that the economy needs more help.
It seems that the US central bank will have to convince market participants tomorrow that the situation (at least in the financial markets) will not get out of control. If so, it will be good news for the markets, and bad news for the dollar as the Fed can print money, not jobs.
The recovery in the labour market has clearly slowed down. The V-shaped rebound in the first two months was followed by increasingly slower recovery. Its current growth rate is only twice as high as the average monthly growth of the last five years (180K).
This data could be an alarming sign to the Fed that the economy needs more help.
It seems that the US central bank will have to convince market participants tomorrow that the situation (at least in the financial markets) will not get out of control. If so, it will be good news for the markets, and bad news for the dollar as the Fed can print money, not jobs.
#WaveAnalysis
#SP500 rising inside impulse wave 3
• Likely to reach 3540.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/sp-500-analysis-04-november-2020-20201104/
#SP500 rising inside impulse wave 3
• Likely to reach 3540.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/sp-500-analysis-04-november-2020-20201104/
#WaveAnalysis
#CADCHF reversed from resistance area
• Likely to fall to 0.6850
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/cadchf-analysis-04-november-2020-20201104/
#CADCHF reversed from resistance area
• Likely to fall to 0.6850
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/cadchf-analysis-04-november-2020-20201104/
🇬🇧 Please note that the BoE Policy decision has been moved forward to 7am GMT tomorrow (previously scheduled for midday).
On average, market economists expect that BoE will increase QE by 100B pounds ($130B).
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will also address Parliament on the government’s support for businesses and households as the U.K. starts another pandemic lockdown.
Please be prepared for increased volatility on GBP and the UK market.
On average, market economists expect that BoE will increase QE by 100B pounds ($130B).
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will also address Parliament on the government’s support for businesses and households as the U.K. starts another pandemic lockdown.
Please be prepared for increased volatility on GBP and the UK market.
Markets grow on support hopes from G7 central banks
Demand for stocks and oil (signs of optimism) went hand in hand yesterday with the decline in US government bond yields and the poor performance of gold (signs of investor caution).
Probable prolonged confrontation between politicians in the coming weeks, leaving the central bank as the last line of defense for the economy.
The Federal Reserve will hold its meeting today, where investors hope to see the readiness of the regulator to help the economy if necessary. Investors assume that they will hear hints of easing in December, as in the case of the ECB.
Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the rate and expanded QE, today the Bank of Japan and Bank of England both announced expansion of their QE programs.
These actions by other central banks are helping the dollar not to look so weak, acting alone with the Fed's massive quantitative easing. At the same time, these measures work to reduce the value of money and support prices for other assets such as stocks and commodities.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/markets-grow-on-support-hopes-from-g7-central-banks-20201105/
Demand for stocks and oil (signs of optimism) went hand in hand yesterday with the decline in US government bond yields and the poor performance of gold (signs of investor caution).
Probable prolonged confrontation between politicians in the coming weeks, leaving the central bank as the last line of defense for the economy.
The Federal Reserve will hold its meeting today, where investors hope to see the readiness of the regulator to help the economy if necessary. Investors assume that they will hear hints of easing in December, as in the case of the ECB.
Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the rate and expanded QE, today the Bank of Japan and Bank of England both announced expansion of their QE programs.
These actions by other central banks are helping the dollar not to look so weak, acting alone with the Fed's massive quantitative easing. At the same time, these measures work to reduce the value of money and support prices for other assets such as stocks and commodities.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/markets-grow-on-support-hopes-from-g7-central-banks-20201105/
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FxPro Blog for forex traders
The winner of the US Presidential Race is still uncertain, and vote count continues. Both Trump and Biden say they are on their way to victory, but t...
#WaveAnalysis
#NZDUSD broke resistance level 0.6710
• Likely to rise to 0.6800
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdusd-analysis-05-november-2020-20201105/
#NZDUSD broke resistance level 0.6710
• Likely to rise to 0.6800
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdusd-analysis-05-november-2020-20201105/
#WaveAnalysis
EURCAD reversed from support level 1.5395
• Likely to rise to 1.5660
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurcad-analysis-05-november-2020-20201105/
EURCAD reversed from support level 1.5395
• Likely to rise to 1.5660
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurcad-analysis-05-november-2020-20201105/
Can the post-election rally be sustained?
Close to its best week since April, Futures for the S&P500 are up 6.8%, staying close to 3500, regaining the fall of the previous three weeks.
First, the results of the presidential election are yet to be finalised and are likely to be disputed.
Second, there is a real risk that a divided Congress will argue for too long about a new relief package.
Third, as the Fed noted at yesterday’s meeting that the economic recovery is losing momentum and we received confirmation of this earlier in the week. The ADP report noted that the private sector created only 365K last month and the Service Employment Index fell close to the ‘waterline’ at 50.1.
These reports are a dire warning before today’s NFP publication.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/can-the-post-election-rally-be-sustained-20201106/
Close to its best week since April, Futures for the S&P500 are up 6.8%, staying close to 3500, regaining the fall of the previous three weeks.
First, the results of the presidential election are yet to be finalised and are likely to be disputed.
Second, there is a real risk that a divided Congress will argue for too long about a new relief package.
Third, as the Fed noted at yesterday’s meeting that the economic recovery is losing momentum and we received confirmation of this earlier in the week. The ADP report noted that the private sector created only 365K last month and the Service Employment Index fell close to the ‘waterline’ at 50.1.
These reports are a dire warning before today’s NFP publication.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/can-the-post-election-rally-be-sustained-20201106/
How EURUSD will move after for Non-farm payrolls?
Anonymous Poll
58%
📈 Upward
34%
📉 Downward
9%
📊 Sideways
Markets cheer Biden’s victory with higher demand for risk
Futures on the S&P 500 remain moderately positive, returning to historical highs of around 3,600 and 12,500 respectively. At the same time, the dollar breaks through to lows in two and a half years.
The strength of the dollar is now in question for several reasons. Biden has promised to cancel most of Trump’s tax breaks. Primarily the Republican Congress is likely to block proposals for tax increases for corporations and wealthy Americans. However, there no new tax cuts in sight.
Another important issue is trade disputes. Markets are hopes for some de-escalation of international trade disputes, especially with China. And this reinforces the growth of the Chinese currency against the dollar. At the beginning of the new week, the dollar fell to 6.55 yuan, its lowest level since June 2018 after the steepest weekly growth since early 2019.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/markets-cheer-bidens-victory-with-higher-demand-for-risk-20201109/
Futures on the S&P 500 remain moderately positive, returning to historical highs of around 3,600 and 12,500 respectively. At the same time, the dollar breaks through to lows in two and a half years.
The strength of the dollar is now in question for several reasons. Biden has promised to cancel most of Trump’s tax breaks. Primarily the Republican Congress is likely to block proposals for tax increases for corporations and wealthy Americans. However, there no new tax cuts in sight.
Another important issue is trade disputes. Markets are hopes for some de-escalation of international trade disputes, especially with China. And this reinforces the growth of the Chinese currency against the dollar. At the beginning of the new week, the dollar fell to 6.55 yuan, its lowest level since June 2018 after the steepest weekly growth since early 2019.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/markets-cheer-bidens-victory-with-higher-demand-for-risk-20201109/
#WaveAnalysis
WTI broke daily down channel
• Likely to rise to 41.90 and 43.80
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wti-analysis-09-november-2020-20201109/
WTI broke daily down channel
• Likely to rise to 41.90 and 43.80
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wti-analysis-09-november-2020-20201109/
#WaveAnalysis
#USDCAD under bearish pressure
• Likely to fall to 1.2800
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdcad-analysis-09-november-2020-20201109/
#USDCAD under bearish pressure
• Likely to fall to 1.2800
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdcad-analysis-09-november-2020-20201109/
Vaccine-based market optimism risks quickly losing ground
Global markets soared on Monday after news of the successful results of the third phase of the joint Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine development. Futures on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones soared to new historic highs, but could not sustain them. The Nasdaq100 had an even heavier correction, as the initial spike in stocks included in this index very quickly turned into a sale.
The caution of senior politicians, from Boris Johnson and Joe Biden to Jerome Powell, also fueled caution on the markets.
In other words, it may well turn out that a short-squeeze caused yesterday’s jump in stocks more near the index highs than by material improvements and forecasts. This means that profit-taking sentiment may soon dominate and this is a very fragile state in which bad news can quickly turn into a full-scale selloff.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/vaccine-based-market-optimism-risks-quickly-losing-ground-20201110/
Global markets soared on Monday after news of the successful results of the third phase of the joint Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine development. Futures on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones soared to new historic highs, but could not sustain them. The Nasdaq100 had an even heavier correction, as the initial spike in stocks included in this index very quickly turned into a sale.
The caution of senior politicians, from Boris Johnson and Joe Biden to Jerome Powell, also fueled caution on the markets.
In other words, it may well turn out that a short-squeeze caused yesterday’s jump in stocks more near the index highs than by material improvements and forecasts. This means that profit-taking sentiment may soon dominate and this is a very fragile state in which bad news can quickly turn into a full-scale selloff.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/vaccine-based-market-optimism-risks-quickly-losing-ground-20201110/
The strengthening of GBP accelerated on Tuesday due to unexpectedly strong labour market data. GBPUSD rose to 1.3270, and EURGBP fell below 0.8900.
Claimant Counts fell by 29,800 in October compared to an average growth forecast of 20,300. Average earnings for the three months to September were 1.3% higher than a year earlier (+1.9% ex bonuses).
The fresh data eliminated fears that last month's rise in coronavirus cases and the approaching partial lockdown could cause a sharp contraction in the labour market. Since the release, GBPUSD has added about one cent, bringing the five-day rally to 2.5% and sending it into the peak area of early September. It is worth noting that the pair has been too unstable above 1.33 for the last 18-months.
EURGBP also found itself in the area of local extremums, having dropped to the lows of 2H20.
In both cases, the British pound will have to pass an important test as to whether investors are ready to let it enter a new level.
Claimant Counts fell by 29,800 in October compared to an average growth forecast of 20,300. Average earnings for the three months to September were 1.3% higher than a year earlier (+1.9% ex bonuses).
The fresh data eliminated fears that last month's rise in coronavirus cases and the approaching partial lockdown could cause a sharp contraction in the labour market. Since the release, GBPUSD has added about one cent, bringing the five-day rally to 2.5% and sending it into the peak area of early September. It is worth noting that the pair has been too unstable above 1.33 for the last 18-months.
EURGBP also found itself in the area of local extremums, having dropped to the lows of 2H20.
In both cases, the British pound will have to pass an important test as to whether investors are ready to let it enter a new level.
The crude oil price still has plenty of room for growth
Oil is growing steadily this month and since the beginning of the week, it has climbed by 12.5% for WTI and 11.5% for Brent. Both popular oils have returned to their 2-month highs, although they opened November with a drop to their lowest prices since late May. A combination of positive factors reversed the short-term trend.
On the technical side, oil has made a significant breakthrough with a sharp move above the 50- and 200-day moving averages.
The nearest targets for the bulls on oil may be the August highs of $44 for WTI and $46 for Brent.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/the-crude-oil-price-still-has-plenty-of-room-for-growth-20201111/
Oil is growing steadily this month and since the beginning of the week, it has climbed by 12.5% for WTI and 11.5% for Brent. Both popular oils have returned to their 2-month highs, although they opened November with a drop to their lowest prices since late May. A combination of positive factors reversed the short-term trend.
On the technical side, oil has made a significant breakthrough with a sharp move above the 50- and 200-day moving averages.
The nearest targets for the bulls on oil may be the August highs of $44 for WTI and $46 for Brent.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/the-crude-oil-price-still-has-plenty-of-room-for-growth-20201111/
#WaveAnalysis
#NZDJPY broke key resistance level 72.00
• Likely to rise to 73.30
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdjpy-wave-analysis-11-november-2020-20201111/
#NZDJPY broke key resistance level 72.00
• Likely to rise to 73.30
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdjpy-wave-analysis-11-november-2020-20201111/
#WaveAnalysis
#Nikkei225 broke resistance level 25000
• Likely to rise to 26500
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nikkei-225-wave-analysis-11-november-2020-20201111/
#Nikkei225 broke resistance level 25000
• Likely to rise to 26500
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nikkei-225-wave-analysis-11-november-2020-20201111/
Markets’ altitude sickness returns the interest to the dollar
Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500, we see the same symptoms approaching the levels of 30,000 and 3600. Nasdaq 100 got its weakness near 12,000 and the German DAX30 at levels above 13,000, an important resistance area this year.
The foreign exchange market has been reacting all week to the risks of new restrictions, first by ignoring the optimism and now by the partial fixing of gains in stocks.
EURUSD fell from an area above 1.1900, where the pair was on Monday, to 1.1760.
The strengthening of the dollar yesterday shifted to the pound and the renminbi. However, today we see a much broader growth of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market, pulling down the New Zealand dollar from 19-month highs at 0.69 and the Australian dollar from levels above 0.73.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/markets-altitude-sickness-returns-the-interest-to-the-dollar-20201112/
Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500, we see the same symptoms approaching the levels of 30,000 and 3600. Nasdaq 100 got its weakness near 12,000 and the German DAX30 at levels above 13,000, an important resistance area this year.
The foreign exchange market has been reacting all week to the risks of new restrictions, first by ignoring the optimism and now by the partial fixing of gains in stocks.
EURUSD fell from an area above 1.1900, where the pair was on Monday, to 1.1760.
The strengthening of the dollar yesterday shifted to the pound and the renminbi. However, today we see a much broader growth of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market, pulling down the New Zealand dollar from 19-month highs at 0.69 and the Australian dollar from levels above 0.73.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/markets-altitude-sickness-returns-the-interest-to-the-dollar-20201112/