Another analogy to the Great Depression in recent Dow Jones decline
World markets did not manage to find enough buyers on Thursday to return to growth.
Pressure on the markets was caused by record numbers of new infections and worsening corporate reports. However, equally important in our view, is the lack of consensus on a support package from legislators who continue to build debt.
Similarily, America was loaded with high debt at 1930s, however, markets were growing at the expense of private investor activity and the previous economic boom. As it is now.
This year it managed to recover almost completely thanks to unprecedented monetary policy measures, as well as government checks for households.
However, there is a risk that, as in the 1930s, this was nothing more than an impulse spike (lower high on chart in 1930-s) followed by many years of a market downturn.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/another-analogy-to-the-great-depression-in-recent-dow-jones-decline-20201030/
World markets did not manage to find enough buyers on Thursday to return to growth.
Pressure on the markets was caused by record numbers of new infections and worsening corporate reports. However, equally important in our view, is the lack of consensus on a support package from legislators who continue to build debt.
Similarily, America was loaded with high debt at 1930s, however, markets were growing at the expense of private investor activity and the previous economic boom. As it is now.
This year it managed to recover almost completely thanks to unprecedented monetary policy measures, as well as government checks for households.
However, there is a risk that, as in the 1930s, this was nothing more than an impulse spike (lower high on chart in 1930-s) followed by many years of a market downturn.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/another-analogy-to-the-great-depression-in-recent-dow-jones-decline-20201030/
#WaveAnalysis
#Gold reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to 1930.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gold-wave-analysis-30-october-2020-20201030/
#Gold reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to 1930.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gold-wave-analysis-30-october-2020-20201030/
#WaveAnalysis
#Wheat falling sharply
• Likely to reach 580.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wheat-wave-analysis-30-october-2020-20201030/
#Wheat falling sharply
• Likely to reach 580.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wheat-wave-analysis-30-october-2020-20201030/
#WaveAnalysis
#CADJPY reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to 79.40
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/cadjpy-wave-analysis-30-october-2020-20201030/
#CADJPY reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to 79.40
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/cadjpy-wave-analysis-30-october-2020-20201030/
Slippery slope for Crude Oil
Once again, the oil situation is extremely unfavourable.
A combination of adverse factors brings back on the agenda the possibility of a fast (but short-lasting) sinking of prices to $25 per barrel of WTI and $30 per barrel of Brent.
Last week’s weekly data showed the biggest inventory increase in 14 weeks, by 4.3 million barrels with rise in production to 11.1 million BPD.
On Friday, Baker Hughes reported new growth in operating oil drilling rigs to 221 (+10 per week). These are the highest figures since May.
However, there is a much larger problem that OPEC needs to address. Record highs of new coronavirus cases in Europe and new lockdowns in the region threaten not only the original plan to raise production quotas at the end of the year, but also to back new cuts on the table if the situation continues to deteriorate.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/slippery-slope-for-crude-oil-20201102/
Once again, the oil situation is extremely unfavourable.
A combination of adverse factors brings back on the agenda the possibility of a fast (but short-lasting) sinking of prices to $25 per barrel of WTI and $30 per barrel of Brent.
Last week’s weekly data showed the biggest inventory increase in 14 weeks, by 4.3 million barrels with rise in production to 11.1 million BPD.
On Friday, Baker Hughes reported new growth in operating oil drilling rigs to 221 (+10 per week). These are the highest figures since May.
However, there is a much larger problem that OPEC needs to address. Record highs of new coronavirus cases in Europe and new lockdowns in the region threaten not only the original plan to raise production quotas at the end of the year, but also to back new cuts on the table if the situation continues to deteriorate.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/slippery-slope-for-crude-oil-20201102/
#WaveAnalysis
#USDCAD reversed from resistance zone
• Likely to fall to 1.3200
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdcad-wave-analysis-02-november-2020-20201102/
#USDCAD reversed from resistance zone
• Likely to fall to 1.3200
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdcad-wave-analysis-02-november-2020-20201102/
#WaveAnalysis
Dow Jones reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to 28000
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/dow-jones-wave-analysis-02-november-2020-20201102/
Dow Jones reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to 28000
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/dow-jones-wave-analysis-02-november-2020-20201102/
Aussie suffers as Australia can’t rely on China
Worth considering how much China's role in the region and the world has grown in recent years.
China is using the weakness of other economies due to coronavirus to reinforce its superiority further.
Recently, we hear more and more Chinese restrictions or tariffs on goods from Australia, from iron ore and coal to wheat and barley. Such restrictions promise to drastically constrain recovery in Australia. It even risks turning a brief coronavirus recession into a prolonged economic stagnation, as it will cause structural changes in the economy.
In 2008/09, Australia managed to avoid a recession due to abnormally strong export growth to China, which supported its inland economy. This time, a lot is wrong, and it is already having a significant impact on Australian policy.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/aussie-suffers-as-australia-cant-rely-on-china-20201103/
Worth considering how much China's role in the region and the world has grown in recent years.
China is using the weakness of other economies due to coronavirus to reinforce its superiority further.
Recently, we hear more and more Chinese restrictions or tariffs on goods from Australia, from iron ore and coal to wheat and barley. Such restrictions promise to drastically constrain recovery in Australia. It even risks turning a brief coronavirus recession into a prolonged economic stagnation, as it will cause structural changes in the economy.
In 2008/09, Australia managed to avoid a recession due to abnormally strong export growth to China, which supported its inland economy. This time, a lot is wrong, and it is already having a significant impact on Australian policy.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/aussie-suffers-as-australia-cant-rely-on-china-20201103/
#WaveAnalysis
Nasdaq 100 reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to 11500.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nasdaq-100-analysis-03-november-2020-20201103/
Nasdaq 100 reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to 11500.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nasdaq-100-analysis-03-november-2020-20201103/
#WaveAnalysis
EURUSD reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to 1.1865
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurusd-analysis-03-november-2020-20201103/
EURUSD reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to 1.1865
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurusd-analysis-03-november-2020-20201103/
US Elections: For markets, it doesn’t matter who wins, but how quickly
Americans have already cast their votes, all that remains now is to clarify results definitively. Preliminary results (about 85% of the votes counted) show a shaky Biden leadership. 449 out of 538 votes counted: 236 for Biden vs 213 for Trump.
Interestingly, the markets are reacting very calmly. The pre-election uncertainty is now approaching its end, benefiting the American currency. It has regained its losses since the beginning of the month, and the dollar index briefly touched the highs of late September.
Investors and traders were in a hurry to buy back stock indices this week, after S&P500 touched 3200, the lower bound of the trading range since July.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/us-elections-for-markets-it-doesnt-matter-who-wins-but-how-quickly-20201104/
Americans have already cast their votes, all that remains now is to clarify results definitively. Preliminary results (about 85% of the votes counted) show a shaky Biden leadership. 449 out of 538 votes counted: 236 for Biden vs 213 for Trump.
Interestingly, the markets are reacting very calmly. The pre-election uncertainty is now approaching its end, benefiting the American currency. It has regained its losses since the beginning of the month, and the dollar index briefly touched the highs of late September.
Investors and traders were in a hurry to buy back stock indices this week, after S&P500 touched 3200, the lower bound of the trading range since July.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/us-elections-for-markets-it-doesnt-matter-who-wins-but-how-quickly-20201104/
Both candidates, Trump and Biden, retain their chances for a win, but now the macro data takes its turn. Recent ADP statistics have disappointed the weak growth in private sector employment. The report says that the private sector added 365K new jobs in October, compared to 753K a month earlier and expectations of 650K.
The recovery in the labour market has clearly slowed down. The V-shaped rebound in the first two months was followed by increasingly slower recovery. Its current growth rate is only twice as high as the average monthly growth of the last five years (180K).
This data could be an alarming sign to the Fed that the economy needs more help.
It seems that the US central bank will have to convince market participants tomorrow that the situation (at least in the financial markets) will not get out of control. If so, it will be good news for the markets, and bad news for the dollar as the Fed can print money, not jobs.
The recovery in the labour market has clearly slowed down. The V-shaped rebound in the first two months was followed by increasingly slower recovery. Its current growth rate is only twice as high as the average monthly growth of the last five years (180K).
This data could be an alarming sign to the Fed that the economy needs more help.
It seems that the US central bank will have to convince market participants tomorrow that the situation (at least in the financial markets) will not get out of control. If so, it will be good news for the markets, and bad news for the dollar as the Fed can print money, not jobs.
#WaveAnalysis
#SP500 rising inside impulse wave 3
• Likely to reach 3540.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/sp-500-analysis-04-november-2020-20201104/
#SP500 rising inside impulse wave 3
• Likely to reach 3540.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/sp-500-analysis-04-november-2020-20201104/
#WaveAnalysis
#CADCHF reversed from resistance area
• Likely to fall to 0.6850
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/cadchf-analysis-04-november-2020-20201104/
#CADCHF reversed from resistance area
• Likely to fall to 0.6850
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/cadchf-analysis-04-november-2020-20201104/
🇬🇧 Please note that the BoE Policy decision has been moved forward to 7am GMT tomorrow (previously scheduled for midday).
On average, market economists expect that BoE will increase QE by 100B pounds ($130B).
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will also address Parliament on the government’s support for businesses and households as the U.K. starts another pandemic lockdown.
Please be prepared for increased volatility on GBP and the UK market.
On average, market economists expect that BoE will increase QE by 100B pounds ($130B).
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will also address Parliament on the government’s support for businesses and households as the U.K. starts another pandemic lockdown.
Please be prepared for increased volatility on GBP and the UK market.
Markets grow on support hopes from G7 central banks
Demand for stocks and oil (signs of optimism) went hand in hand yesterday with the decline in US government bond yields and the poor performance of gold (signs of investor caution).
Probable prolonged confrontation between politicians in the coming weeks, leaving the central bank as the last line of defense for the economy.
The Federal Reserve will hold its meeting today, where investors hope to see the readiness of the regulator to help the economy if necessary. Investors assume that they will hear hints of easing in December, as in the case of the ECB.
Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the rate and expanded QE, today the Bank of Japan and Bank of England both announced expansion of their QE programs.
These actions by other central banks are helping the dollar not to look so weak, acting alone with the Fed's massive quantitative easing. At the same time, these measures work to reduce the value of money and support prices for other assets such as stocks and commodities.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/markets-grow-on-support-hopes-from-g7-central-banks-20201105/
Demand for stocks and oil (signs of optimism) went hand in hand yesterday with the decline in US government bond yields and the poor performance of gold (signs of investor caution).
Probable prolonged confrontation between politicians in the coming weeks, leaving the central bank as the last line of defense for the economy.
The Federal Reserve will hold its meeting today, where investors hope to see the readiness of the regulator to help the economy if necessary. Investors assume that they will hear hints of easing in December, as in the case of the ECB.
Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the rate and expanded QE, today the Bank of Japan and Bank of England both announced expansion of their QE programs.
These actions by other central banks are helping the dollar not to look so weak, acting alone with the Fed's massive quantitative easing. At the same time, these measures work to reduce the value of money and support prices for other assets such as stocks and commodities.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/markets-grow-on-support-hopes-from-g7-central-banks-20201105/
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The winner of the US Presidential Race is still uncertain, and vote count continues. Both Trump and Biden say they are on their way to victory, but t...
#WaveAnalysis
#NZDUSD broke resistance level 0.6710
• Likely to rise to 0.6800
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdusd-analysis-05-november-2020-20201105/
#NZDUSD broke resistance level 0.6710
• Likely to rise to 0.6800
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdusd-analysis-05-november-2020-20201105/