Oil lost its momentum but retained its growth potential
Slowly but surely, oil is being pressured by news that is undermining the delicate balance of supply and demand. The USA is recovering its production disturbed by Hurricane Delta. Libya is restoring output on its largest oilfield. In Norway, oil workers are back to work following the end of a strike. A formal agreement for a ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan is also favourable for supply.
But in an environment of strong demand for growth assets in the stock markets, we can expect to see an increased interest in commodities, particularly oil, among stock market participants
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/oil-lost-its-momentum-but-retained-its-growth-potential-20201013/
Slowly but surely, oil is being pressured by news that is undermining the delicate balance of supply and demand. The USA is recovering its production disturbed by Hurricane Delta. Libya is restoring output on its largest oilfield. In Norway, oil workers are back to work following the end of a strike. A formal agreement for a ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan is also favourable for supply.
But in an environment of strong demand for growth assets in the stock markets, we can expect to see an increased interest in commodities, particularly oil, among stock market participants
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/oil-lost-its-momentum-but-retained-its-growth-potential-20201013/
#WaveAnalysis
#GBPUSD reversed from resistance area
• Likely to fall 1.2845
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gbpusd-wave-analysis-13-october-2020-20201013/
#GBPUSD reversed from resistance area
• Likely to fall 1.2845
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gbpusd-wave-analysis-13-october-2020-20201013/
#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY reversed from resistance area
• Likely to fall to 123.25
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurjpy-wave-analysis-13-october-2020-20201013/
#EURJPY reversed from resistance area
• Likely to fall to 123.25
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurjpy-wave-analysis-13-october-2020-20201013/
The growth of new COVID-19 cases in Europe dragged EUR, GBP
The dollar added about 0.6% on Tuesday and is growing against the euro at the start of trading on Wednesday. EURUSD has retreated from levels above 1.1800 to 1.1735. GBPUSD dropped to 1.2880 against 1.3060 early on Tuesday.
The infection rate dynamics may again become a driver on the stock and currency markets. In the first case, we see an inverse correlation between the number of infections and the demand for risk assets. In the case of currencies, changes in the incidence ratio in one country/region relative to another play an important role.
The new records in the UK and France have set the issue of lockdown in these countries back on the agenda.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/the-growth-of-new-covid-19-cases-in-europe-dragged-eur-gbp-20201014/
The dollar added about 0.6% on Tuesday and is growing against the euro at the start of trading on Wednesday. EURUSD has retreated from levels above 1.1800 to 1.1735. GBPUSD dropped to 1.2880 against 1.3060 early on Tuesday.
The infection rate dynamics may again become a driver on the stock and currency markets. In the first case, we see an inverse correlation between the number of infections and the demand for risk assets. In the case of currencies, changes in the incidence ratio in one country/region relative to another play an important role.
The new records in the UK and France have set the issue of lockdown in these countries back on the agenda.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/the-growth-of-new-covid-19-cases-in-europe-dragged-eur-gbp-20201014/
#WaveAnalysis
#EURCHF reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to 1.0780
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurchf-wave-analysis-14-october-2020-20201014/
#EURCHF reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to 1.0780
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurchf-wave-analysis-14-october-2020-20201014/
#WaveAnalysis
#Soy reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to 1080.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/soy-wave-analysis-14-october-2020-20201014/
#Soy reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to 1080.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/soy-wave-analysis-14-october-2020-20201014/
Pandemic surge increasing market cautions
The US indexes stay under moderate pressure on the third day. The S&P500 lost 0.7% on Wednesday and futures on the index are down another 0.2% on Thursday morning.
China’s stock market indices are holding up much better than their European and US counterparts, this can be easily explained by the lower number of new infections.
Currency exchange rates also very clearly reflect the difference in economic prospects due to differences in epidemiological conditions. USDCNH has remained at its lowest level since May 2019, despite the constant heat of trade disputes.
More developed countries are facing the need to increase financial and monetary support to the economy to mitigate the economic impact of the second wave of disease. All this has a significant effect on currency movements, as investors see increased signs of low rates for longer.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/pandemic-surge-increasing-market-cautions-20201015/
The US indexes stay under moderate pressure on the third day. The S&P500 lost 0.7% on Wednesday and futures on the index are down another 0.2% on Thursday morning.
China’s stock market indices are holding up much better than their European and US counterparts, this can be easily explained by the lower number of new infections.
Currency exchange rates also very clearly reflect the difference in economic prospects due to differences in epidemiological conditions. USDCNH has remained at its lowest level since May 2019, despite the constant heat of trade disputes.
More developed countries are facing the need to increase financial and monetary support to the economy to mitigate the economic impact of the second wave of disease. All this has a significant effect on currency movements, as investors see increased signs of low rates for longer.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/pandemic-surge-increasing-market-cautions-20201015/
Oil in no rush to decline, despite lower demand for risks
Despite the lower demand for risk assets this week, oil was able to gain support from the inventory report yesterday. Buyer support came in handy, allowing oil to stay above significant technical levels. The ability of the Brent and WTI futures to perform "above the market" is an important bullish sign about its near-term prospects.
New weekly data showed a 3.8-million-barrel decrease in inventories last week. Inventory growth by the same week decreased to 12.5% from 15.8% a week earlier and from over 20% in early September and July.
The current inventory level is 10% below its peak in June, clearly reflecting the recovery in demand for oil. On the other hand, there has been no actual production growth in recent weeks due to the long hurricane season.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/oil-in-no-rush-to-decline-despite-lower-demand-for-risks-20201016/
Despite the lower demand for risk assets this week, oil was able to gain support from the inventory report yesterday. Buyer support came in handy, allowing oil to stay above significant technical levels. The ability of the Brent and WTI futures to perform "above the market" is an important bullish sign about its near-term prospects.
New weekly data showed a 3.8-million-barrel decrease in inventories last week. Inventory growth by the same week decreased to 12.5% from 15.8% a week earlier and from over 20% in early September and July.
The current inventory level is 10% below its peak in June, clearly reflecting the recovery in demand for oil. On the other hand, there has been no actual production growth in recent weeks due to the long hurricane season.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/oil-in-no-rush-to-decline-despite-lower-demand-for-risks-20201016/
#WaveAnalysis
#EURO50 falling inside impulse waves (iii) and 3
• Likely to reach 3100.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/euro50-wave-analysis-15-october-2020-20201015/
#EURO50 falling inside impulse waves (iii) and 3
• Likely to reach 3100.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/euro50-wave-analysis-15-october-2020-20201015/
#WaveAnalysis
#Ferrari opened with the upward gap
• Likely to rise to 193.75
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/ferrari-wave-analysis-16-october-2020-20201016/
#Ferrari opened with the upward gap
• Likely to rise to 193.75
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/ferrari-wave-analysis-16-october-2020-20201016/
#WaveAnalysis
#Corn broke multi-month resistance level 400.00
• Likely to rise to 415.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/corn-wave-analysis-16-october-2020-20201016/
#Corn broke multi-month resistance level 400.00
• Likely to rise to 415.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/corn-wave-analysis-16-october-2020-20201016/
What is stopping markets from growing?
Asian markets opened trading on Monday with a jump in trading, adding 0.6% to the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.
The positive trend in Asia’s indexes does not seem sustainable due to several weak data reports published amid trading.
GDP figures seriously failed to meet expectations. Third-quarter growth was 2.7% after a jump of 11.5%. Year-over-year growth rate was 4.9%, which was noticeably weaker than the 5.5% expected. This suggesting a marked weakening of the recovery momentum.
All this makes us look cautiously at the figures for the fourth quarter as more countries announce new infection records and partially regain coronavirus restrictions. As a global factory, China runs the risk of facing demand shocks and economic pressure, even with relatively strong domestic demand.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/the-inevitable-turnaround-what-is-stopping-markets-from-growing-20201019/
Asian markets opened trading on Monday with a jump in trading, adding 0.6% to the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.
The positive trend in Asia’s indexes does not seem sustainable due to several weak data reports published amid trading.
GDP figures seriously failed to meet expectations. Third-quarter growth was 2.7% after a jump of 11.5%. Year-over-year growth rate was 4.9%, which was noticeably weaker than the 5.5% expected. This suggesting a marked weakening of the recovery momentum.
All this makes us look cautiously at the figures for the fourth quarter as more countries announce new infection records and partially regain coronavirus restrictions. As a global factory, China runs the risk of facing demand shocks and economic pressure, even with relatively strong domestic demand.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/the-inevitable-turnaround-what-is-stopping-markets-from-growing-20201019/
#WaveAnalysis
#USDCHF reversed from resistance area
• Likely to fall to 0.9080
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdchf-wave-analysis-19-october-2020-20201019/
#USDCHF reversed from resistance area
• Likely to fall to 0.9080
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdchf-wave-analysis-19-october-2020-20201019/
#WaveAnalysis
#Exxon Mobil falling inside impulse wave (3)
• Likely to fall to 33.20
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/exxon-mobil-wave-analysis-19-october-2020-20201019/
#Exxon Mobil falling inside impulse wave (3)
• Likely to fall to 33.20
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/exxon-mobil-wave-analysis-19-october-2020-20201019/
Elections and coronavirus fears are driving away investors from the US
Markets continue to pull into safety assets after the S&P500 fell 1.6% on Monday. Futures on the S&P500 declined further in the last five trading sessions.
It seems that investors are already beginning to prepare for market volatility before the elections, trying to move into protective financial instruments. These same forces are supporting the weakening of the dollar.
Meantime, the USDCNH continues to look to the bottom. Earlier this morning, the dollar was down to 6,665, its lowest value since July 2018, developing a five-month RMB rally. It does not harm the Chinese stock market, where the China A50 blue-chip index rose 25% in addition to the 7% increase in the renminbi. Hence, in USD terms, it is more than 32% over this period.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/elections-and-coronavirus-fears-are-driving-away-investors-from-the-us-20201020/
Markets continue to pull into safety assets after the S&P500 fell 1.6% on Monday. Futures on the S&P500 declined further in the last five trading sessions.
It seems that investors are already beginning to prepare for market volatility before the elections, trying to move into protective financial instruments. These same forces are supporting the weakening of the dollar.
Meantime, the USDCNH continues to look to the bottom. Earlier this morning, the dollar was down to 6,665, its lowest value since July 2018, developing a five-month RMB rally. It does not harm the Chinese stock market, where the China A50 blue-chip index rose 25% in addition to the 7% increase in the renminbi. Hence, in USD terms, it is more than 32% over this period.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/elections-and-coronavirus-fears-are-driving-away-investors-from-the-us-20201020/
Shares of US Tech giants stagnate and risk pulling markets down
Since the September correction, capitalisation leaders – Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon – now stand 7-11% below their early September levels amid a 4% decline of S&P500 from its historical peak.
Still, these companies have grown substantially so far this year: from +14% for Google and +70% for Amazon compared with a 5.5% increase in the S&P500. This strength seems to have attracted increased attention from the authorities which is increasingly playing against them.
The US antitrust authorities have announced that they are launching an investigation against Google and its position among search engines. The authorities say that others (such as Facebook and Amazon) are also under scrutiny. Previously, Apple was hit by Apple Store commissions.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/shares-of-us-tech-giants-stagnate-and-risk-pulling-markets-down-20201021/
Since the September correction, capitalisation leaders – Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon – now stand 7-11% below their early September levels amid a 4% decline of S&P500 from its historical peak.
Still, these companies have grown substantially so far this year: from +14% for Google and +70% for Amazon compared with a 5.5% increase in the S&P500. This strength seems to have attracted increased attention from the authorities which is increasingly playing against them.
The US antitrust authorities have announced that they are launching an investigation against Google and its position among search engines. The authorities say that others (such as Facebook and Amazon) are also under scrutiny. Previously, Apple was hit by Apple Store commissions.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/shares-of-us-tech-giants-stagnate-and-risk-pulling-markets-down-20201021/
Trading time changes
On October 25, 2020, European countries shift from Daylight Saving Time.
In this regard, from 26 to 30 October trading time schedule of several financial classes will be temporarily changed.
You could find all the details in our Market Holidays calendar: https://www.fxpro.com/trading-tools/market-holidays
If you have any questions, feel free to contact the FxPro Customer support team via email support@fxpro.com.
On October 25, 2020, European countries shift from Daylight Saving Time.
In this regard, from 26 to 30 October trading time schedule of several financial classes will be temporarily changed.
You could find all the details in our Market Holidays calendar: https://www.fxpro.com/trading-tools/market-holidays
If you have any questions, feel free to contact the FxPro Customer support team via email support@fxpro.com.
FxPro
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A broader dollar decline alerts investors
The dollar index fell to its lowest level since September 2nd, almost completely recouping the correction rollback of the previous month.
Previously, we saw increased demand for the renminbi, which was rising to more than 2-year highs after the 7% rally. Yesterday, the pound jumped more than 1.5% on Wednesday alone.
There were no significant drivers for the yen. Very often its declines go hand in hand with or precede downward impulses for stocks. The pair fell to local lows near 104.5, where it has not once reversed to growth in the last four years.
The movement of the Japanese yen against the dollar is so strongly linked to the market sentiment that its weakening may become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
A rapid rebound will help to shake off fears and set the mood for further optimism recovery in the markets. If USDJPY continues its decline, the stock market may follow.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/a-broader-dollar-alerts-investors-20201022/
The dollar index fell to its lowest level since September 2nd, almost completely recouping the correction rollback of the previous month.
Previously, we saw increased demand for the renminbi, which was rising to more than 2-year highs after the 7% rally. Yesterday, the pound jumped more than 1.5% on Wednesday alone.
There were no significant drivers for the yen. Very often its declines go hand in hand with or precede downward impulses for stocks. The pair fell to local lows near 104.5, where it has not once reversed to growth in the last four years.
The movement of the Japanese yen against the dollar is so strongly linked to the market sentiment that its weakening may become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
A rapid rebound will help to shake off fears and set the mood for further optimism recovery in the markets. If USDJPY continues its decline, the stock market may follow.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/a-broader-dollar-alerts-investors-20201022/
Weekly claims for unemployment benefits in the USA resume its decline. Last week, the number dropped from 842K to 787K. The new figures are still higher than two weeks ago, reflecting the negative impact of the jump in new coronavirus cases.
However, continued claims are falling with an accelerating pace, indicating that the labour market is continuing to create new jobs. The overall number fell to 8.37M for the week ending October 10th compared to 9.40M the week before with expected growth of 9.5 million.
This is positive news for US markets, including the US dollar and equities, as it reduces the degree of concern around the worst-case scenario. On the back of this report, the dollar may get a break after four trading sessions of decline, as well as containing the pressure on S&P500 since the beginning of last week.
However, continued claims are falling with an accelerating pace, indicating that the labour market is continuing to create new jobs. The overall number fell to 8.37M for the week ending October 10th compared to 9.40M the week before with expected growth of 9.5 million.
This is positive news for US markets, including the US dollar and equities, as it reduces the degree of concern around the worst-case scenario. On the back of this report, the dollar may get a break after four trading sessions of decline, as well as containing the pressure on S&P500 since the beginning of last week.