#WaveAnalysis
#AUDJPY rising inside corrective wave 2
• Likely to rise to 76.60
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audjpy-wave-analysis-1-october-2020-20201001/
#AUDJPY rising inside corrective wave 2
• Likely to rise to 76.60
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audjpy-wave-analysis-1-october-2020-20201001/
#WaveAnalysis
#Palladium rising inside impulse wave 3
• Likely to reach to 2410.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/palladium-wave-analysis-1-october-2020-20201001/
#Palladium rising inside impulse wave 3
• Likely to reach to 2410.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/palladium-wave-analysis-1-october-2020-20201001/
Trump tests positive for COVID-19 which spurs risk-aversion across markets
The president’s commitment to quarantine immediately is likely to force him to reconsider his campaign plans. Potentially, this news will reduce his chances of improving his rating in the coming month.
For markets, a fall in Trump’s chances of winning is bad news as Biden’s arrival promises higher taxes and more focus on supporting the lower-income households and increase the burden on businesses.
This is no more than a short-term impulse for markets as it is difficult to find statistical support that markets are weaker under Democrats than under Republicans.
If the decline in the US indices does not translate into the total elimination of risk positions and margin-calls, we can very well expect more pressure on the US currency.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/trump-tests-positive-for-covid-19-which-spurs-risk-aversion-across-markets-20201002/
The president’s commitment to quarantine immediately is likely to force him to reconsider his campaign plans. Potentially, this news will reduce his chances of improving his rating in the coming month.
For markets, a fall in Trump’s chances of winning is bad news as Biden’s arrival promises higher taxes and more focus on supporting the lower-income households and increase the burden on businesses.
This is no more than a short-term impulse for markets as it is difficult to find statistical support that markets are weaker under Democrats than under Republicans.
If the decline in the US indices does not translate into the total elimination of risk positions and margin-calls, we can very well expect more pressure on the US currency.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/trump-tests-positive-for-covid-19-which-spurs-risk-aversion-across-markets-20201002/
The number of jobs in the USA increased by 661K in September, which is worse than the expected 900K and growth of 1489K in August, 1761K in July and 4781K in June. It is clear from these figures that the labour market is losing momentum, although it has plenty of room to grow. In September, 141.7 million people received wages, 10.7 million fewer than in February.
On the positive side, those headline figures are worse than expected due to cuts in the public sector. The private sector created 877K jobs. Elsewhere, the unemployment rate fell sharper than expected, to 7.9% with longer weekly hours worked.
Besides, the manufacturing and construction sectors created more jobs in September than in August, increasing the number of jobs by 66K and 26K, respectively. Increased activity in these sectors often precedes broader economic growth.
Thus, the mid-term market reaction to the report may not be as adverse as the headline NFP numbers show.
On the positive side, those headline figures are worse than expected due to cuts in the public sector. The private sector created 877K jobs. Elsewhere, the unemployment rate fell sharper than expected, to 7.9% with longer weekly hours worked.
Besides, the manufacturing and construction sectors created more jobs in September than in August, increasing the number of jobs by 66K and 26K, respectively. Increased activity in these sectors often precedes broader economic growth.
Thus, the mid-term market reaction to the report may not be as adverse as the headline NFP numbers show.
Euro increases on upbeat PMIs, stocks are trying to form growth
The Euro area’s composite PMI remained in growth territory, rising to 50.4 against the first estimate of 50.1. The Index data has had a substantial impact on EURUSD so far this year. During early trading in Europe, those indices were better than expected and helped to keep the pair above 1.1700.
The American S&P500 and Nasdaq100 on Friday fell below their 50-day average. The ability to close assuredly above these signal levels may indicate a break in the downtrend and a return to growth after September’s correction.
The Euro area’s composite PMI remained in growth territory, rising to 50.4 against the first estimate of 50.1. The Index data has had a substantial impact on EURUSD so far this year. During early trading in Europe, those indices were better than expected and helped to keep the pair above 1.1700.
The American S&P500 and Nasdaq100 on Friday fell below their 50-day average. The ability to close assuredly above these signal levels may indicate a break in the downtrend and a return to growth after September’s correction.
#WaveAnalysis
#Brent crude oil reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to 43.70
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/brent-crude-oil-wave-analysis-5-october-2020-20201005/
#Brent crude oil reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to 43.70
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/brent-crude-oil-wave-analysis-5-october-2020-20201005/
#WaveAnalysis
#USDCHF falling inside impulse wave 3
• Likely to fall to 0.9100
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdchf-wave-analysis-5-october-2020-20201005/
#USDCHF falling inside impulse wave 3
• Likely to fall to 0.9100
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdchf-wave-analysis-5-october-2020-20201005/
Is there a return in risk demand or the end of the 40-year bull market in treasuries?
The yields of 10-year trader’s bonds may return to the 0.50%-0.75% range. In this case, it will be possible to talk about the renewal of the trends of the previous months: increased demand for stocks of fast-growing (mostly technological) US companies and moderate weakening of the dollar.
Classically, an increase in US bond yields can attract the interest of those investors who are trying to find yields higher than those in the US overseas markets. An increase often follows the dollar rate increase.
But what if this is another case? Investors sell long-term US treasuries and look for alternatives abroad, avoiding the fear of being hostage to negative real yields over the next few years or even a decade.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/is-there-a-return-in-risk-demand-or-the-end-of-the-40-year-bull-market-in-treasuries-20201006/
The yields of 10-year trader’s bonds may return to the 0.50%-0.75% range. In this case, it will be possible to talk about the renewal of the trends of the previous months: increased demand for stocks of fast-growing (mostly technological) US companies and moderate weakening of the dollar.
Classically, an increase in US bond yields can attract the interest of those investors who are trying to find yields higher than those in the US overseas markets. An increase often follows the dollar rate increase.
But what if this is another case? Investors sell long-term US treasuries and look for alternatives abroad, avoiding the fear of being hostage to negative real yields over the next few years or even a decade.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/is-there-a-return-in-risk-demand-or-the-end-of-the-40-year-bull-market-in-treasuries-20201006/
The British pound is lagging today against most competitors. Pressure on sterling has increased following comments from Boris Johnson's spokesman that Britain needs to know by 15th of October whether there will be a deal with the EU. The EU said that it is not planning any new concessions by this new deadline, betting that the UK is bluffing.
There is still plenty of time until 15th October, so the pressure may increase further in the coming days.
This could be bad news for GBPUSD, which has reversed downwards to a 50-day moving average and could quickly fall back to support near 1.2700, on the 200-day average. If things get more anxious, bull and bear battles could soon move to 1.2500 or lower at 1.2200.
There is still plenty of time until 15th October, so the pressure may increase further in the coming days.
This could be bad news for GBPUSD, which has reversed downwards to a 50-day moving average and could quickly fall back to support near 1.2700, on the 200-day average. If things get more anxious, bull and bear battles could soon move to 1.2500 or lower at 1.2200.
#WaveAnalysis
#EURCHF reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to 1,0835
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurchf-wave-analysis-6-october-2020-20201006/
#EURCHF reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to 1,0835
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurchf-wave-analysis-6-october-2020-20201006/
#WaveAnalysis
#Wheat broke resistance level 585.00
• Likely to rise to 600.00 and 610.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wheat-wave-analysis-6-october-2020-20201006/
#Wheat broke resistance level 585.00
• Likely to rise to 600.00 and 610.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wheat-wave-analysis-6-october-2020-20201006/
How will Trump’s ambition to raise his rating impact the markets?
News that Trump has abandoned talks with Democrats about a relief package wiped 2.5% from the S&P500, erasing its intraday growth and leading to a 1.4% decline on Tuesday.
The current US President will undoubtedly use his position to strengthen the association that he personally signed the stimulus packages and generously supported the economy and suffering industries. The President can issue executive orders that require funds to be allocated to specific areas.
Politically non-biased technical analysis is forcing us to look at market dynamics with caution in the upcoming days. With a sharp movement, Nasdaq and S&P 500 have fallen below the 50-day average. EURUSD and GBPUSD reversed from similar levels. This is a signal that bearish sentiment may continue to increase in these instruments.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/how-will-trumps-ambition-to-raise-his-rating-impact-the-markets-20201007/
News that Trump has abandoned talks with Democrats about a relief package wiped 2.5% from the S&P500, erasing its intraday growth and leading to a 1.4% decline on Tuesday.
The current US President will undoubtedly use his position to strengthen the association that he personally signed the stimulus packages and generously supported the economy and suffering industries. The President can issue executive orders that require funds to be allocated to specific areas.
Politically non-biased technical analysis is forcing us to look at market dynamics with caution in the upcoming days. With a sharp movement, Nasdaq and S&P 500 have fallen below the 50-day average. EURUSD and GBPUSD reversed from similar levels. This is a signal that bearish sentiment may continue to increase in these instruments.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/how-will-trumps-ambition-to-raise-his-rating-impact-the-markets-20201007/
Wheat prices reached a 5-year high this week, going above the round level of $6 per bushel. Soybeans also reached two and a half year highs, exceeding $10.5 per bushel. Buyers try to assess supply risks due to dry weather in the Black Sea region, as well as in Argentina and the USA.
In the meantime, the demand for grains remains robust. Unlike the metals and energy markets, the pandemic has not had a significant impact on demand. Sale and prices for basic foodstuffs are also supported by massive consumer support packages from governments, which elevates food prices.
It is also worth mentioning that under the terms of Phase 1 of the trade deal, China must seriously increase its purchases of soybeans. Volumes are significantly behind schedule but are still generating additional demand on the market.
Prices of other agricultural commodities - corn, sugar, cotton - have been on an upward trend in recent months, but so far have not been able to overcome the collapse of the first four months of the year.
In the meantime, the demand for grains remains robust. Unlike the metals and energy markets, the pandemic has not had a significant impact on demand. Sale and prices for basic foodstuffs are also supported by massive consumer support packages from governments, which elevates food prices.
It is also worth mentioning that under the terms of Phase 1 of the trade deal, China must seriously increase its purchases of soybeans. Volumes are significantly behind schedule but are still generating additional demand on the market.
Prices of other agricultural commodities - corn, sugar, cotton - have been on an upward trend in recent months, but so far have not been able to overcome the collapse of the first four months of the year.
#WaveAnalysis
#Sugar rising inside impulse wave 3
• Likely to rise to 14.75
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/sugar-wave-analysis-7-october-2020-20201007/
#Sugar rising inside impulse wave 3
• Likely to rise to 14.75
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/sugar-wave-analysis-7-october-2020-20201007/
#WaveAnalysis
#Corn rising inside impulse waves 3 and (3)
• Likely to rise to 393.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/corn-wave-analysis-7-october-2020-20201007/
#Corn rising inside impulse waves 3 and (3)
• Likely to rise to 393.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/corn-wave-analysis-7-october-2020-20201007/
The world is likely on the verge of seeing multiple increases across agricultural commodity prices
With governments and central banks focusing on supporting household consumption, the cost of food and energy may continue to rise for quite a long time. As a result, we can see a repeat of the growth in 2010-2012.
Grain prices more than doubled between June 2010 and February 2011, rising from $4.2 to $9+, when government stimulus measures brought financial markets and the economy back towards growth.
Cotton grew five times between 2009 and 2011 after multi-year lows, clearly replicating the heat of passion in the financial system. In March-April 2020, its price was returning toward its lowest level since 2009, but since then prices have been rising for the several months in a row, adding more than 40% over this period.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/the-world-is-likely-on-the-verge-of-seeing-multiple-increases-across-agricultural-commodity-prices-20201008/
With governments and central banks focusing on supporting household consumption, the cost of food and energy may continue to rise for quite a long time. As a result, we can see a repeat of the growth in 2010-2012.
Grain prices more than doubled between June 2010 and February 2011, rising from $4.2 to $9+, when government stimulus measures brought financial markets and the economy back towards growth.
Cotton grew five times between 2009 and 2011 after multi-year lows, clearly replicating the heat of passion in the financial system. In March-April 2020, its price was returning toward its lowest level since 2009, but since then prices have been rising for the several months in a row, adding more than 40% over this period.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/the-world-is-likely-on-the-verge-of-seeing-multiple-increases-across-agricultural-commodity-prices-20201008/
#WaveAnalysis
#Cotton rising inside impulse waves (iii) and 3
• Likely to rise to 68.90
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/cotton-wave-analysis-8-october-2020-20201008/
#Cotton rising inside impulse waves (iii) and 3
• Likely to rise to 68.90
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/cotton-wave-analysis-8-october-2020-20201008/
#WaveAnalysis
#Brent crude oil continues to rise
• Likely to reach 44.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/brent-crude-oil-wave-analysis-8-october-2020-20201008/
#Brent crude oil continues to rise
• Likely to reach 44.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/brent-crude-oil-wave-analysis-8-october-2020-20201008/
Crude oil and stock indices are rising steadily after a rollback in September
Stock indices are strengthening and the pressure on the dollar is gaining momentum. Futures on the S&P 500 added more than 3.6% within two days, more than recovering from the drop it took on news of pausing the relief package negotiations. Yesterday Trump reported that discussions would continue, bringing back to the market its main growth driver over recent days.
The short-term technical picture of the market is now on the bull’s side, noting a recovery in customer interest after the September slump.
Brent prices went above the 50 and 200-day averages after a 3% jump on Thursday and more than 11% growth so far this week. There is also a recovery of interest in oil due to speculation about improving economic prospects through incentives.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/crude-oil-and-stock-indices-are-rising-steadily-after-a-rollback-in-september-20201009/
Stock indices are strengthening and the pressure on the dollar is gaining momentum. Futures on the S&P 500 added more than 3.6% within two days, more than recovering from the drop it took on news of pausing the relief package negotiations. Yesterday Trump reported that discussions would continue, bringing back to the market its main growth driver over recent days.
The short-term technical picture of the market is now on the bull’s side, noting a recovery in customer interest after the September slump.
Brent prices went above the 50 and 200-day averages after a 3% jump on Thursday and more than 11% growth so far this week. There is also a recovery of interest in oil due to speculation about improving economic prospects through incentives.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/crude-oil-and-stock-indices-are-rising-steadily-after-a-rollback-in-september-20201009/