#WaveAnalysis

#Silver reversed from support area

Likely to test 25.00

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/silver-wave-analysis-29-september-2020-20200929/

#WaveAnalysis

#AUDUSD reversed from round support level 0.7000

• Likely to rise to 0.7200

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audusd-wave-analysis-29-september-2020-20200929/

#WaveAnalysis

#NZDUSD reversed from key support level 0.6500

• Likely to rise to 0.6625

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdusd-wave-analysis-29-september-2020-20200929/

Gold and silver forms a base for renewed growth

The technical picture suggests that a decline from $2075 to $1850 was a short term corrective rollback, which has significantly lost strength near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from March-August. Silver, however, failed to overcome its important round level of $30 at its peak in August and was dragged down by the correction of its big brother.

As early as the end of last week, the bears’ pressure was exhausted, and we saw renewed purchases. Both metals are growing along with positive stock indices in anticipation of a new US fiscal support package.

This includes tax breaks for companies, cheques for $1200 for most Americans and the reinstatement of federal unemployment benefit supplements. Earlier this year we saw all these measures supporting demand for stock exchange instruments and pulling gold and silver up.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/gold-and-silver-forms-a-base-for-renewed-growth-20200930/

The ADP employment data for September showed an increase of 749K private employments, better than the forecasted 650K. Most of this growth above expectations should be attributed to the lower expectations after three months of a significant undershoot. We should not forget to look at the bigger picture: after five months of growth, employment is 10.5 million people below its peak in February as the labour market has recovered just over half of the losses incurred during the lockdown in March and April.

Futures on equity indices moved slightly up, while the dollar index declined somewhat on the publication of this data. Formally, it can support interest in risk assets but still, it should be noted that in recent months the ADP and the official release of the NFP have widely differed, which has severely reduced the value of the former, leaving some murkiness before Friday's data.

#WaveAnalysis

#Boeing broke daily down channel

Likely to rise to 180.00

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/boeing-wave-analysis-30-september-2020-20200930/

#WaveAnalysis
#EURAUD reversed from resistance area

• Likely to fall to 1.6125

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/euraud-wave-analysis-30-september-2020-20200930/

Stimulus hopes feed the markets; FX appears bullish

AUDUSD is adding for the fourth consecutive day, reaching 0.7180, returning approximately half of its losses of a drop from 0.7415 to 0.7005 earlier in September.

Offshore Chinese Yuan rose sharply to 6.73 per dollar, the highest level since May 2019, with a robust 2-day move. The USDCNH correction rollback proved to be short and shallow. Recent estimates of the PMI helped to regain interest in the CNY, which noted further strengthening of business activity in manufacturing and services at the fastest pace we have seen in multiple years.

Discussions on a package of measures in the US are becoming a prime driver for markets. Progress in the negotiations promises to push stock indices upwards and bring back pressure on the dollar after the September growth attempt.

The renewal of local lows in the USDCNH pair may herald a broader weakening of the dollar index and precede a retest of EURUSD levels above 1.2000.

Monthly US personal income and outlays figures are converging, but savings are still high. Income fell by 2.7% in August to an annual level of $19.49 trillion, roughly the same as the trend amounts we could have seen had it not been for the pandemic. The government support measures earlier made up for the shortfall one could have expected with an additional 10 million unemployed.

However, outlays indicate that consumers have not returned to their previous lifestyles yet. In August, they rose by 1.0%, but that is still 3.7% below the February level. With a saving rate of 14.1% in August, Americans saving much more than usual. Over the last six months, Americans have put aside three times more money as in the same period last year, mostly due to spending cutbacks.

This could have been good news for the stock and the housing market, where part of these savings is heading. However, we must not forget that spending is driving the American economy. Without it, it is doomed to be cut back, and this is bad thing.

#WaveAnalysis

#AUDJPY rising inside corrective wave 2

• Likely to rise to 76.60

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audjpy-wave-analysis-1-october-2020-20201001/

#WaveAnalysis
#Palladium rising inside impulse wave 3

• Likely to reach to 2410.00

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/palladium-wave-analysis-1-october-2020-20201001/

Trump tests positive for COVID-19 which spurs risk-aversion across markets

The president’s commitment to quarantine immediately is likely to force him to reconsider his campaign plans. Potentially, this news will reduce his chances of improving his rating in the coming month.

For markets, a fall in Trump’s chances of winning is bad news as Biden’s arrival promises higher taxes and more focus on supporting the lower-income households and increase the burden on businesses.

This is no more than a short-term impulse for markets as it is difficult to find statistical support that markets are weaker under Democrats than under Republicans.

If the decline in the US indices does not translate into the total elimination of risk positions and margin-calls, we can very well expect more pressure on the US currency.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/trump-tests-positive-for-covid-19-which-spurs-risk-aversion-across-markets-20201002/

The number of jobs in the USA increased by 661K in September, which is worse than the expected 900K and growth of 1489K in August, 1761K in July and 4781K in June. It is clear from these figures that the labour market is losing momentum, although it has plenty of room to grow. In September, 141.7 million people received wages, 10.7 million fewer than in February.

On the positive side, those headline figures are worse than expected due to cuts in the public sector. The private sector created 877K jobs. Elsewhere, the unemployment rate fell sharper than expected, to 7.9% with longer weekly hours worked.

Besides, the manufacturing and construction sectors created more jobs in September than in August, increasing the number of jobs by 66K and 26K, respectively. Increased activity in these sectors often precedes broader economic growth.
Thus, the mid-term market reaction to the report may not be as adverse as the headline NFP numbers show.

Euro increases on upbeat PMIs, stocks are trying to form growth

The Euro area’s composite PMI remained in growth territory, rising to 50.4 against the first estimate of 50.1. The Index data has had a substantial impact on EURUSD so far this year. During early trading in Europe, those indices were better than expected and helped to keep the pair above 1.1700.

The American S&P500 and Nasdaq100 on Friday fell below their 50-day average. The ability to close assuredly above these signal levels may indicate a break in the downtrend and a return to growth after September’s correction.

#WaveAnalysis

#Brent crude oil reversed from support area

• Likely to rise to 43.70

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/brent-crude-oil-wave-analysis-5-october-2020-20201005/

#WaveAnalysis

#USDCHF falling inside impulse wave 3

• Likely to fall to 0.9100

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdchf-wave-analysis-5-october-2020-20201005/

Is there a return in risk demand or the end of the 40-year bull market in treasuries?

The yields of 10-year trader’s bonds may return to the 0.50%-0.75% range. In this case, it will be possible to talk about the renewal of the trends of the previous months: increased demand for stocks of fast-growing (mostly technological) US companies and moderate weakening of the dollar.

Classically, an increase in US bond yields can attract the interest of those investors who are trying to find yields higher than those in the US overseas markets. An increase often follows the dollar rate increase.

But what if this is another case? Investors sell long-term US treasuries and look for alternatives abroad, avoiding the fear of being hostage to negative real yields over the next few years or even a decade.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/is-there-a-return-in-risk-demand-or-the-end-of-the-40-year-bull-market-in-treasuries-20201006/

The British pound is lagging today against most competitors. Pressure on sterling has increased following comments from Boris Johnson's spokesman that Britain needs to know by 15th of October whether there will be a deal with the EU. The EU said that it is not planning any new concessions by this new deadline, betting that the UK is bluffing.

There is still plenty of time until 15th October, so the pressure may increase further in the coming days.

This could be bad news for GBPUSD, which has reversed downwards to a 50-day moving average and could quickly fall back to support near 1.2700, on the 200-day average. If things get more anxious, bull and bear battles could soon move to 1.2500 or lower at 1.2200.