A harder dollar push

The US dollar returned to growth yesterday afternoon, but this time stock indices failed to accompany it.

Further strengthening of the dollar is a working scenario for nearest days and weeks, unlikely for months.

Further growth from current levels opens a direct path for USDX to 96.3, where it reversed upward in December 2019 and resisted pressure in June.

The performance of the euro pair shows a high potential for further decline, with the area of 1.1500 promising to be a next major target.

Complicated negotiations on Brexit and the increased correlation of the pound with risk demand are forcing us to seriously consider the return of GBPUSD to 1.2000.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/a-harder-dollar-push-20200924/

US weekly unemployment claims once again fell short of expectations. The number of initial claims rose from 866K to 870K with expectations of 845K. The number of continued claims fell from 12.75M to 12.58M, worse than the expected 12.3M.

Continued claims numbers are falling, albeit at a much slower pace than expected, while the stabilization of initial applications for benefits at 880K over the last four weeks is a worrying sign.

The current level is four times higher than before the pandemic hit and without further decline, it will signal a possible halt in the economic recovery.

Strictly speaking, this is more negative news for markets, but the big question now is, isn’t the market tired of the sell-off?

#WaveAnalysis

#EURUSD broke support zone

Likely to fall to 1.1560

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurusd-wave-analysis-24-september-2020-20200924/

New support hopes eased market fears and halted USD uptick

Discussions around a new $2.2 trillion relief package in the US kept markets afloat on Thursday and are helping to build positive momentum at Asian bourses on Friday morning.

The steady fall in key US indices, as well as the increase of the dollar earlier this month, reversed the trends that prevailed in markets from March to the end of August. On the tech analysis side, we recently received a signal that the dollar is likely to continue its growth and that the stock market is expected to decline.

However, a renewed hope for support packages from the US government could prevail over any technical picture or alter its interpretation.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/new-support-hopes-eased-market-fears-and-halted-usd-uptick-20200925/

#WaveAnalysis

#USDCHF rising inside impulse wave

Likely to rise to 0.9350

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdchf-wave-analysis-25-september-2020-20200925/

#WaveAnalysis
#AUDNZD broke support zone

Likely to fall to 1.0670

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audnzd-wave-analysis-25-september-2020-20200925/

Shares bounce, but currencies are wary

The markets on Monday morning are supported by hopes for fiscal support in the US and progress in Brexit negotiations. Interestingly, the markets have managed to put aside the fear of the risks of an economic slowdown amid a near-record number of infections at the end of last week.

In the short term, this was a turning point for the US indices and spread positive waves to other indices. Futures on the S&P 500 are now trading 3.3% above Thursday’s low. The Dow Jones 30 retreated 3% from local dips, while the Nasdaq100 retreated 5%.

At the same time, the currency market has not yet seen an equally sharp reversal in demand for yielding currencies. The dollar index just suspended its upward correction at the end of the day on Friday, remaining close to its highs of 2 months, but shied away from resuming decline.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/shares-bounce-but-currencies-are-wary-20200928/

#WaveAnalysis
#AUDCAD reversed from support zone

Likely to rise to 0.9500

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audcad-wave-analysis-28-september-2020-20200928/

#WaveAnalysis

#Gold approached support level 1865.00

Likely to re-test 1900.00

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gold-wave-analysis-28-september-2020-20200928/

Will the Trump-Biden debate stop the market rally?

Hopes for fiscal stimulus on day four are fueling the market growth. S&P500 has added 4.7% over this time, bringing back about 40% of its slump since early September. On the technical side, the situation seems like a return to growth after a 23.6% retreat from the March-September rally.

Futures on the S&P 500 are now testing a 50-day average. Successful consolidation above this can clear the path to historical highs. But possibly the bears have not yet played their final card.

There are several obstacles ahead on the way up. Today there will be the first US presidential debate between candidates.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/will-the-trump-biden-debate-stop-the-market-rally-20200929/

#WaveAnalysis

#Silver reversed from support area

Likely to test 25.00

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/silver-wave-analysis-29-september-2020-20200929/

#WaveAnalysis

#AUDUSD reversed from round support level 0.7000

• Likely to rise to 0.7200

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audusd-wave-analysis-29-september-2020-20200929/

#WaveAnalysis

#NZDUSD reversed from key support level 0.6500

• Likely to rise to 0.6625

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdusd-wave-analysis-29-september-2020-20200929/

Gold and silver forms a base for renewed growth

The technical picture suggests that a decline from $2075 to $1850 was a short term corrective rollback, which has significantly lost strength near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from March-August. Silver, however, failed to overcome its important round level of $30 at its peak in August and was dragged down by the correction of its big brother.

As early as the end of last week, the bears’ pressure was exhausted, and we saw renewed purchases. Both metals are growing along with positive stock indices in anticipation of a new US fiscal support package.

This includes tax breaks for companies, cheques for $1200 for most Americans and the reinstatement of federal unemployment benefit supplements. Earlier this year we saw all these measures supporting demand for stock exchange instruments and pulling gold and silver up.

https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/gold-and-silver-forms-a-base-for-renewed-growth-20200930/

The ADP employment data for September showed an increase of 749K private employments, better than the forecasted 650K. Most of this growth above expectations should be attributed to the lower expectations after three months of a significant undershoot. We should not forget to look at the bigger picture: after five months of growth, employment is 10.5 million people below its peak in February as the labour market has recovered just over half of the losses incurred during the lockdown in March and April.

Futures on equity indices moved slightly up, while the dollar index declined somewhat on the publication of this data. Formally, it can support interest in risk assets but still, it should be noted that in recent months the ADP and the official release of the NFP have widely differed, which has severely reduced the value of the former, leaving some murkiness before Friday's data.

#WaveAnalysis

#Boeing broke daily down channel

Likely to rise to 180.00

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/boeing-wave-analysis-30-september-2020-20200930/

#WaveAnalysis
#EURAUD reversed from resistance area

• Likely to fall to 1.6125

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/euraud-wave-analysis-30-september-2020-20200930/

Stimulus hopes feed the markets; FX appears bullish

AUDUSD is adding for the fourth consecutive day, reaching 0.7180, returning approximately half of its losses of a drop from 0.7415 to 0.7005 earlier in September.

Offshore Chinese Yuan rose sharply to 6.73 per dollar, the highest level since May 2019, with a robust 2-day move. The USDCNH correction rollback proved to be short and shallow. Recent estimates of the PMI helped to regain interest in the CNY, which noted further strengthening of business activity in manufacturing and services at the fastest pace we have seen in multiple years.

Discussions on a package of measures in the US are becoming a prime driver for markets. Progress in the negotiations promises to push stock indices upwards and bring back pressure on the dollar after the September growth attempt.

The renewal of local lows in the USDCNH pair may herald a broader weakening of the dollar index and precede a retest of EURUSD levels above 1.2000.

Monthly US personal income and outlays figures are converging, but savings are still high. Income fell by 2.7% in August to an annual level of $19.49 trillion, roughly the same as the trend amounts we could have seen had it not been for the pandemic. The government support measures earlier made up for the shortfall one could have expected with an additional 10 million unemployed.

However, outlays indicate that consumers have not returned to their previous lifestyles yet. In August, they rose by 1.0%, but that is still 3.7% below the February level. With a saving rate of 14.1% in August, Americans saving much more than usual. Over the last six months, Americans have put aside three times more money as in the same period last year, mostly due to spending cutbacks.

This could have been good news for the stock and the housing market, where part of these savings is heading. However, we must not forget that spending is driving the American economy. Without it, it is doomed to be cut back, and this is bad thing.

#WaveAnalysis

#AUDJPY rising inside corrective wave 2

• Likely to rise to 76.60

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audjpy-wave-analysis-1-october-2020-20201001/