#WaveAnalysis
#Platinum reversed from support level 890.00
Likely to rise to 950.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/platinum-wave-analysis-9-september-2020-20200909/
#Platinum reversed from support level 890.00
Likely to rise to 950.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/platinum-wave-analysis-9-september-2020-20200909/
The single currency has returned to the offensive, exceeding 1.19 for EURUSD and 0.92 for EURGBP. ECB President Lagarde's comments on euro dynamics were not as aggressive as some feared.
In her remarks, she noted that the dynamics of the FX are taken into consideration and discussed by Governing Council, but emphasised that the ECB does not target the rate.
Subsequent comments from Lagarde also dismissed fears of deflation. On the contrary, she noted that the inflation situation has improved since the last meeting.
In less than two sessions, EURUSD retrieved back two-thirds of the drop from its peak on 1st September.
Elsewhere in the markets, buyers have returned to the US Tech sector, which brought back optimism among participants. For the euro, this could be a strong bid for a new test of 1.2000, potentially targeting 1.2500 before the end of the year.
In her remarks, she noted that the dynamics of the FX are taken into consideration and discussed by Governing Council, but emphasised that the ECB does not target the rate.
Subsequent comments from Lagarde also dismissed fears of deflation. On the contrary, she noted that the inflation situation has improved since the last meeting.
In less than two sessions, EURUSD retrieved back two-thirds of the drop from its peak on 1st September.
Elsewhere in the markets, buyers have returned to the US Tech sector, which brought back optimism among participants. For the euro, this could be a strong bid for a new test of 1.2000, potentially targeting 1.2500 before the end of the year.
#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY reversed from support zone
Likely to rise to 127.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurjpy-wave-analysis-10-september-2020-20200910/
#EURJPY reversed from support zone
Likely to rise to 127.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurjpy-wave-analysis-10-september-2020-20200910/
No-deal Brexit fears pushed EURGBP to extremes
The British pound still being hit hard in September, with severe losses against the dollar and euro.
The pound has not been able to gain a foothold above 1.3500 in the last two years, as each time there is the pressure of bad news around Brexit, the bulls submit.
Except for March crunch, we saw final buyer demand appear near 1.20 several times: at the end of 2016, as well as in August-September 2019 and May 2020.
An even clearer support pound has against the euro. EURGBP is visibly losing momentum after surging above 0.9200. Yesterday was the fifth time over the last four years that the pair took this threshold.
This causes us to watch out for further moves in EURGBP. With the help of bad news, the pair may shoot higher for a while, but the chances are high that a prolonged correction will follow.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/no-deal-brexit-fears-pushed-eurgbp-to-extremes-20200911/
The British pound still being hit hard in September, with severe losses against the dollar and euro.
The pound has not been able to gain a foothold above 1.3500 in the last two years, as each time there is the pressure of bad news around Brexit, the bulls submit.
Except for March crunch, we saw final buyer demand appear near 1.20 several times: at the end of 2016, as well as in August-September 2019 and May 2020.
An even clearer support pound has against the euro. EURGBP is visibly losing momentum after surging above 0.9200. Yesterday was the fifth time over the last four years that the pair took this threshold.
This causes us to watch out for further moves in EURGBP. With the help of bad news, the pair may shoot higher for a while, but the chances are high that a prolonged correction will follow.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/no-deal-brexit-fears-pushed-eurgbp-to-extremes-20200911/
Higher inflation couldn't help Dollar this time
Consumer price growth in the US has exceeded economists' expectations for the third consecutive month. Published figures for August showed a 0.4% increase after two months of a 0.6% rise. Annual growth accelerated to 1.3%, the highest since March, although it was as low as 0.1% in May.
The Core-CPI index is also gaining, recording an annual growth rate of 1.7% last month.
Last month's rise in prices was broad, and not based on individual groups. Rapid recovery in inflation usually plays into the hands of the national currency as it reflects strong consumer demand and brings the CB closer to monetary policy tightening. The market seems to have responded to the news based on this logic by strengthening demand for the Dollar.
However, there are some reasonable doubts about the sustainability of dollar growth on such news. A change in the Fed's strategy has been taken off the agenda for raising rates in the foreseeable future, perhaps up until 2023.
Consumer price growth in the US has exceeded economists' expectations for the third consecutive month. Published figures for August showed a 0.4% increase after two months of a 0.6% rise. Annual growth accelerated to 1.3%, the highest since March, although it was as low as 0.1% in May.
The Core-CPI index is also gaining, recording an annual growth rate of 1.7% last month.
Last month's rise in prices was broad, and not based on individual groups. Rapid recovery in inflation usually plays into the hands of the national currency as it reflects strong consumer demand and brings the CB closer to monetary policy tightening. The market seems to have responded to the news based on this logic by strengthening demand for the Dollar.
However, there are some reasonable doubts about the sustainability of dollar growth on such news. A change in the Fed's strategy has been taken off the agenda for raising rates in the foreseeable future, perhaps up until 2023.
Bulls buy back the drawdown; the FX dynamic supports optimism
Pressure on the US indices has stopped approaching the 50-day average, which signifies this dip as technical and short term. The S&P 500 went below this line several times in one day last week, but each time it was eventually bought back. The Dow Jones also touched this mark, while Nasdaq has been hovering around its own since the beginning of last week.
This time the dynamics around the 50-day average can be interpreted as moderately positive.
Only if the Nasdaq100 falls below the 50-day average and the closes the day below 11,000, we can talk about stronger pressure. For S&P500, we will see a similar signal if the index slips below 3300.
At times like this, when the bull and bear scales look balanced, we often turn our attention to the dynamics of the foreign exchange market, and there are still some positive signals.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/bulls-buy-back-the-drawdown-the-fx-dynamic-supports-optimism-20200914/
Pressure on the US indices has stopped approaching the 50-day average, which signifies this dip as technical and short term. The S&P 500 went below this line several times in one day last week, but each time it was eventually bought back. The Dow Jones also touched this mark, while Nasdaq has been hovering around its own since the beginning of last week.
This time the dynamics around the 50-day average can be interpreted as moderately positive.
Only if the Nasdaq100 falls below the 50-day average and the closes the day below 11,000, we can talk about stronger pressure. For S&P500, we will see a similar signal if the index slips below 3300.
At times like this, when the bull and bear scales look balanced, we often turn our attention to the dynamics of the foreign exchange market, and there are still some positive signals.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/bulls-buy-back-the-drawdown-the-fx-dynamic-supports-optimism-20200914/
#WaveAnalysis
#GBPUSD reversed from support level 1.2800
Likely to rise to 1.3000
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gbpusd-wave-analysis-14-september-2020-20200914/
#GBPUSD reversed from support level 1.2800
Likely to rise to 1.3000
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gbpusd-wave-analysis-14-september-2020-20200914/
#WaveAnalysis
#Platinum broke resistance level 950.00
Likely to rise to 965.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/platinum-wave-analysis-14-september-2020-20200914/
#Platinum broke resistance level 950.00
Likely to rise to 965.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/platinum-wave-analysis-14-september-2020-20200914/
Strong Chinese data caused the yuan to rally and supported markets
The Chinese data once again helped to boost buying on the financial markets, noting that the economy is roaring ahead after the coronavirus crisis. The optimism around economic recovery has also led to a sharp increase in interest in the Chinese yuan.
The decline of USDCNH to 6.80 overnight, triggered a wave of stop orders that led to further deterioration of the pair.
From the technical analysis perspective, the double top formation near 7.19 area was confirmed, which shows the potential for a decline to 6.50. However, the next important stop could be 6.70, where the pair spent two and a half months in early 2019.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/strong-chinese-data-caused-the-yuan-to-rally-and-supported-markets-20200915/
The Chinese data once again helped to boost buying on the financial markets, noting that the economy is roaring ahead after the coronavirus crisis. The optimism around economic recovery has also led to a sharp increase in interest in the Chinese yuan.
The decline of USDCNH to 6.80 overnight, triggered a wave of stop orders that led to further deterioration of the pair.
From the technical analysis perspective, the double top formation near 7.19 area was confirmed, which shows the potential for a decline to 6.50. However, the next important stop could be 6.70, where the pair spent two and a half months in early 2019.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/strong-chinese-data-caused-the-yuan-to-rally-and-supported-markets-20200915/
German ZEW index goes above expectations, but EURUSD is in no hurry to climb above 1.1900
The positive mood of the markets got another boost during the day after the German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment publication. Estimates for September showed an increase to 77.4 from 71.5 a month earlier. These numbers are the highest in 20 years, despite new rising COVID-10 cases and stalled Brexit talks.
The current sentiment index continues to recover after its extreme dip between February and March. The sharpest indicator drop in history is followed by an unprecedented speedy recovery, which is encouraging.
The publication of ZEW triggered a new buying wave in EURUSD, sending it back to test 1.1900. But the bulls are not yet in a hurry to cross this line, above which the pair has not been able to develop steady growth for a month and a half. It seems that the outcome of this fight will be delayed until after the Fed's comments are published tomorrow evening.
The positive mood of the markets got another boost during the day after the German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment publication. Estimates for September showed an increase to 77.4 from 71.5 a month earlier. These numbers are the highest in 20 years, despite new rising COVID-10 cases and stalled Brexit talks.
The current sentiment index continues to recover after its extreme dip between February and March. The sharpest indicator drop in history is followed by an unprecedented speedy recovery, which is encouraging.
The publication of ZEW triggered a new buying wave in EURUSD, sending it back to test 1.1900. But the bulls are not yet in a hurry to cross this line, above which the pair has not been able to develop steady growth for a month and a half. It seems that the outcome of this fight will be delayed until after the Fed's comments are published tomorrow evening.
Fed may return the dollar to a slippery slope
Later in the evening, the FOMC will be presenting its monetary policy commentary, which will focus on the labour market by looking over the threat of inflation.
Without an expectation that the Fed will tighten its policy in response to inflation, a vicious spiral can be created in which high inflation causes an outflow of dollar assets, generating further price pressure. This is a frequent problem in emerging markets but is a long-forgotten one for developed countries.
Suppose the Fed’s strategy change turns out to be as straightforward as Powell’s sounded last month. In that case, it may renew pressure to the dollar, and very quickly return it to the late August lows with the risk of EURUSD passing through 1.2000 this week, as well climbing above 1,2500 by the end of the year.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/fed-may-return-the-dollar-to-a-slippery-slope-20200916/
Later in the evening, the FOMC will be presenting its monetary policy commentary, which will focus on the labour market by looking over the threat of inflation.
Without an expectation that the Fed will tighten its policy in response to inflation, a vicious spiral can be created in which high inflation causes an outflow of dollar assets, generating further price pressure. This is a frequent problem in emerging markets but is a long-forgotten one for developed countries.
Suppose the Fed’s strategy change turns out to be as straightforward as Powell’s sounded last month. In that case, it may renew pressure to the dollar, and very quickly return it to the late August lows with the risk of EURUSD passing through 1.2000 this week, as well climbing above 1,2500 by the end of the year.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/fed-may-return-the-dollar-to-a-slippery-slope-20200916/
#WaveAnalysis
#AUDUSD reversed from support level 0.7200
Likely to rise to 0.7400
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audusd-wave-analysis-15-september-2020-20200915/
#AUDUSD reversed from support level 0.7200
Likely to rise to 0.7400
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audusd-wave-analysis-15-september-2020-20200915/
The dollar is retreating against franc and yen, which is often a signal of increased demand for safe assets.
At the same time, the markets remain positive overall. Does this mean that there is an flee to safety on the FX? It seems unlikely for now.
It is more akin to an individual weakening of the American currency as we see the GBP recovering against the USD, as well as the outstanding performance of CNH along with a strengthening AUD.
Interestingly, the EUR is obviously in no hurry to stand out against this background. Its losses against the pound, the yen and the franc reflect the indecision of traders near an important level for EURUSD. The pair briefly crossed the 1.2000 level at the beginning of the month but was knocked down by bears with a six-day decline. In the last month and a half, the pair has been repeatedly thrown from 1.1900.
This only intensifies attention to 1.2000, as overcoming this level can result in the surrender of the American currency in the following days or even weeks.
At the same time, the markets remain positive overall. Does this mean that there is an flee to safety on the FX? It seems unlikely for now.
It is more akin to an individual weakening of the American currency as we see the GBP recovering against the USD, as well as the outstanding performance of CNH along with a strengthening AUD.
Interestingly, the EUR is obviously in no hurry to stand out against this background. Its losses against the pound, the yen and the franc reflect the indecision of traders near an important level for EURUSD. The pair briefly crossed the 1.2000 level at the beginning of the month but was knocked down by bears with a six-day decline. In the last month and a half, the pair has been repeatedly thrown from 1.1900.
This only intensifies attention to 1.2000, as overcoming this level can result in the surrender of the American currency in the following days or even weeks.
#WaveAnalysis
#USDJPY broke support area
Likely to fall to 104.20
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdjpy-wave-analysis-16-september-2020-20200916/
#USDJPY broke support area
Likely to fall to 104.20
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdjpy-wave-analysis-16-september-2020-20200916/
Fed gave a helping hand to the dollar but for how long?
In the wake of the FOMC meeting last night, dollar purchases increased in the markets, and stock indices began to fall. EURUSD was briefly below 1.1740 at the start of trading today, a low for more than a month.
The S&P500 lost around 0.46% on Wednesday and futures on the index lost 1% more this morning and moved close to the 50-day MA, support where it bounced from last week.
It remains to be seen how sustainable this impact will be.
Recently, USDJPY quickly went below 105 after a brief jump. The EURUSD gained support after touching the 50-day average.
Closing the day, or better, the week, above the 50-day average for EURUSD, S&P500 and Nasdaq100 could be an essential signal of sustained dollar pressure and a sign of renewed market optimism.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/fed-gave-a-helping-hand-to-the-dollar-but-for-how-long-20200917/
In the wake of the FOMC meeting last night, dollar purchases increased in the markets, and stock indices began to fall. EURUSD was briefly below 1.1740 at the start of trading today, a low for more than a month.
The S&P500 lost around 0.46% on Wednesday and futures on the index lost 1% more this morning and moved close to the 50-day MA, support where it bounced from last week.
It remains to be seen how sustainable this impact will be.
Recently, USDJPY quickly went below 105 after a brief jump. The EURUSD gained support after touching the 50-day average.
Closing the day, or better, the week, above the 50-day average for EURUSD, S&P500 and Nasdaq100 could be an essential signal of sustained dollar pressure and a sign of renewed market optimism.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/fed-gave-a-helping-hand-to-the-dollar-but-for-how-long-20200917/
#WaveAnalysis
#WTI rising inside wave (ii)
Likely to reach 43.55
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wti-wave-analysis-16-september-2020-20200916/
#WTI rising inside wave (ii)
Likely to reach 43.55
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wti-wave-analysis-16-september-2020-20200916/
The Dollar sticks to its weakness for good
As we noted previously, the impulse for the strengthening of the US currency has proved to be very unstable. The dollar index has turned down many times since late July from 93.60 over the last month and a half. Yesterday was no exception. For EURUSD the support lies at 1.1750.
Both the dollar index and the EURUSD pair changed the trend sharply after touching the 50-day average. The gold rate, as well as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, are similarly supported after a dip to their respective 50-DMA.
This behaviour is a sign of investors’ desire to stay within the short-term trend, i.e. within the weakening USD trend.
Assuming that this trend continues to weaken and that there is an overall increase in demand for risk assets, we would not be surprised if EURUSD could soon move beyond 1.2000.
https://fxpro.news/analysis-and-insight/the-dollar-sticks-to-its-weakness-for-good-20200918/
As we noted previously, the impulse for the strengthening of the US currency has proved to be very unstable. The dollar index has turned down many times since late July from 93.60 over the last month and a half. Yesterday was no exception. For EURUSD the support lies at 1.1750.
Both the dollar index and the EURUSD pair changed the trend sharply after touching the 50-day average. The gold rate, as well as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, are similarly supported after a dip to their respective 50-DMA.
This behaviour is a sign of investors’ desire to stay within the short-term trend, i.e. within the weakening USD trend.
Assuming that this trend continues to weaken and that there is an overall increase in demand for risk assets, we would not be surprised if EURUSD could soon move beyond 1.2000.
https://fxpro.news/analysis-and-insight/the-dollar-sticks-to-its-weakness-for-good-20200918/
#WaveAnalysis
#CHFJPY broke support zone
Likely to fall to 114.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/chfjpy-wave-analysis-18-september-2020-20200918/
#CHFJPY broke support zone
Likely to fall to 114.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/chfjpy-wave-analysis-18-september-2020-20200918/