Over the last day, 136.8K new cases of COVID-19 were detected worldwide vs 134.7K day earlier and 130.5K one week ago. The number of recovered was 105.1K vs 31.3K earlier. The total number of cases now exceeded 7.60M, of which 3.33M is active, 3.84M recovered, and 423.8K died. The five countries with the highest daily growth are Brazil (30.5K) the US (23.3K), India (11.1K), Russia (8.8K), Peru (6.0K). Globally, the rate of closed cases is 56.1%. The death rate outcome is 9.94% vs 10.77% week ago.
#NZDJPY falling inside wave (2)
Likely to fall to 68,00
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdjpy-wave-analysis-11-june-2020-20200611/
Likely to fall to 68,00
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdjpy-wave-analysis-11-june-2020-20200611/
A new avalanche in the markets. Who will buy now?
Stock indices are recovering some of their losses after a powerful sale the day before, comparable to what we saw in mid-March. On Thursday Dow Jones lost 6.9%, S&P 500 collapsed by 5.9%, Nasdaq dropped by 4.6%.
During the previous months, small players supported the market. Retail investors were imbued with the idea of restoring the stock market, believing that it would endlessly grow thanks to the Fed.
Now the Fed assures that it won’t make mistakes of the 1930s and will not rush into tightening. At the same time, the Fed is reducing its purchases on the balance sheet, while business is reducing its investment plans, and governments are being more careful about spending.
Stock indices are recovering some of their losses after a powerful sale the day before, comparable to what we saw in mid-March. On Thursday Dow Jones lost 6.9%, S&P 500 collapsed by 5.9%, Nasdaq dropped by 4.6%.
During the previous months, small players supported the market. Retail investors were imbued with the idea of restoring the stock market, believing that it would endlessly grow thanks to the Fed.
Now the Fed assures that it won’t make mistakes of the 1930s and will not rush into tightening. At the same time, the Fed is reducing its purchases on the balance sheet, while business is reducing its investment plans, and governments are being more careful about spending.
Over the last day, 136.8K new cases of COVID-19 were detected worldwide vs 133.3K and 142.1K over the previous two days. The number of recovered was 73.6K vs 105.4K and 86.2K earlier. The total number of cases now close to 8M, of which 3.43M is active, 4.13M recovered, and 435.7K died. The five countries with the highest daily growth are the US (20.0), Brazil (17.0K), India (11.2K), Russia (8.8K), Chile (7.0K). Markets are alarmed by fears of a second wave in Beijing. However, there were a little over 100 cases revealed an over the weekend.
Wheat reversed from support zone
Likely to rise to 510,00
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wheat-wave-analysis-12-june-2020-20200612/
Likely to rise to 510,00
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wheat-wave-analysis-12-june-2020-20200612/
The dollar will hit those who started burying it
As the dollar was declining in previous weeks, there were more and more apocalyptic forecasts about its prospects. For the most part, such forecasts are based on the mention of huge government debt, as well as high budget and payment deficits.
It is difficult to refute globally the fact that the U.S. economy is overburdened with debt and the budget deficit has swelled to levels unseen in peacetime. It is difficult to argue with the fact that this refrains the economy from rapid growth. However, betting against the dollar can prove to be very expensive during the global economic crisis.
As a rule, before the reversal of the dollar to decline, a powerful wave of its growth can pass first, which will relieve the markets from pessimists. Technically, the dollar index came out of the oversold area at the end of last week. It is a signal for (at least) a short-term rebound.
As the dollar was declining in previous weeks, there were more and more apocalyptic forecasts about its prospects. For the most part, such forecasts are based on the mention of huge government debt, as well as high budget and payment deficits.
It is difficult to refute globally the fact that the U.S. economy is overburdened with debt and the budget deficit has swelled to levels unseen in peacetime. It is difficult to argue with the fact that this refrains the economy from rapid growth. However, betting against the dollar can prove to be very expensive during the global economic crisis.
As a rule, before the reversal of the dollar to decline, a powerful wave of its growth can pass first, which will relieve the markets from pessimists. Technically, the dollar index came out of the oversold area at the end of last week. It is a signal for (at least) a short-term rebound.
Bitcoin caves under pressure of institutional investors
Bitcoin broke the support at $9,400, which opened the door for further decline. After diving below $9K, buyers immediately supported the coin, pushing it back towards $9,200. Although this fact indicates the market support, still the situation remains very shaky, also due to the increasing pressure in the traditional market. Bitcoin may fall under the general wave of risk assets sales, and in this case, the support of retail investors is weaker than institutional pressure.
If the perfect storm is formed in the traditional market, we can see the collapse of the crypto in the same style as in March.
Bitcoin broke the support at $9,400, which opened the door for further decline. After diving below $9K, buyers immediately supported the coin, pushing it back towards $9,200. Although this fact indicates the market support, still the situation remains very shaky, also due to the increasing pressure in the traditional market. Bitcoin may fall under the general wave of risk assets sales, and in this case, the support of retail investors is weaker than institutional pressure.
If the perfect storm is formed in the traditional market, we can see the collapse of the crypto in the same style as in March.
S&P500 is fighting for the trend
The S & P500 index managed to reverse the pressure of the bears, formed on fears of the second wave of the spread of coronavirus, within the day. Futures on the S & P500 within the day lost more than 2%, but at the time of writing, they were able to almost completely clear out intraday losses and close the gap at the start of trading that can be a crucial manifestation of buyer's power.
It is with great caution to look at this intraday recovery. SPX closed last week below the 200-day average that a sign of the sentiments of institutional investors and banks: they are not ready to believe in a further bullish market turn.
Usually, in the middle of the day, applications from mutual funds are executed on the American market, and retail investors are activated. They have pulled markets up in previous weeks and are determined to buy out the recent drawdown. However, at current levels, there may be no shortage of sellers.
The interest of retail investors is a very volatile thing. People willingly join the game when they see positive dynamics, but are very quickly disappointed without seeing positive changes in the account.
Separately, it is worth remembering that retail customers are much more limited in the use of borrowed funds. And the new capital (separately from paper profits) is entirely in doubt with unemployment jump. Also, the fundamental reasons for buying stocks are in question, because in the long term neither the inflationary threat nor the growth of dividend yield can be seen.
The S & P500 index managed to reverse the pressure of the bears, formed on fears of the second wave of the spread of coronavirus, within the day. Futures on the S & P500 within the day lost more than 2%, but at the time of writing, they were able to almost completely clear out intraday losses and close the gap at the start of trading that can be a crucial manifestation of buyer's power.
It is with great caution to look at this intraday recovery. SPX closed last week below the 200-day average that a sign of the sentiments of institutional investors and banks: they are not ready to believe in a further bullish market turn.
Usually, in the middle of the day, applications from mutual funds are executed on the American market, and retail investors are activated. They have pulled markets up in previous weeks and are determined to buy out the recent drawdown. However, at current levels, there may be no shortage of sellers.
The interest of retail investors is a very volatile thing. People willingly join the game when they see positive dynamics, but are very quickly disappointed without seeing positive changes in the account.
Separately, it is worth remembering that retail customers are much more limited in the use of borrowed funds. And the new capital (separately from paper profits) is entirely in doubt with unemployment jump. Also, the fundamental reasons for buying stocks are in question, because in the long term neither the inflationary threat nor the growth of dividend yield can be seen.
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Over the last day, 124.6K new cases of COVID-19 were detected worldwide vs 123.1K last day and 107.7K this day a week ago. The number of recovered was 90.8 vs 73.6K earlier. The total number of cases now is 8.12M, of which 3.46M is active, 4.22M recovered, and 439.2K died. The five countries with the highest daily growth are Brazil (23.7K), the US (20.7K), India (10.2K), Russia (8.2K), Pakistan (5.2K). The number of deaths in the previous two days decreased to 3.3K and 3.4K, compared to a 7-day average of 4.3K.
U.S. debt is not a dollar problem
On the US, often assumed that accelerated inflation will reduce real debt. However, it’s not all as easy as it sounds. These figures show that inflation hikes subsequently increase the debt burden. Plus, debt load previously did not erode USD value.
That is, there is no sense for investors in the coming quarters to fear that politicians will activate the inflationary spiral. On the contrary, a high debt burden will suppress price growth, which can be seen both by the U.S.A. itself in the early postwar years and by the example of Japan.
No less impressive is another correlation between the level of public debt and the dollar index. For the whole period of calculation, from the 1970s to the end of 2019, the dollar index, compared with a broad basket of currencies tends to grow, as well as the level of public debt to GDP.
On the US, often assumed that accelerated inflation will reduce real debt. However, it’s not all as easy as it sounds. These figures show that inflation hikes subsequently increase the debt burden. Plus, debt load previously did not erode USD value.
That is, there is no sense for investors in the coming quarters to fear that politicians will activate the inflationary spiral. On the contrary, a high debt burden will suppress price growth, which can be seen both by the U.S.A. itself in the early postwar years and by the example of Japan.
No less impressive is another correlation between the level of public debt and the dollar index. For the whole period of calculation, from the 1970s to the end of 2019, the dollar index, compared with a broad basket of currencies tends to grow, as well as the level of public debt to GDP.
US retail sales sharply exceeded expectations, adding 17.7% in May (+ 7.9% exp.). Sales ex-auto soared 12.4% mom (+5.5% exp.). Recovery turned out to be much more dynamic than anticipated. Vivid data triggered increased purchases in the markets. S&P500 added more than 1.5% in the last hour, enhancing its growth after these data. Such a sharp strengthening of the indicator is another argument in favour of a V-shaped economic recovery.
Nevertheless, it will not be superfluous to look at the broader picture. Despite the rebound, retail sales are 8.3% below the January peak. Excluding auto, the decrease is 8.8%. As is the case with labour market data, the initial rebound in macroeconomic data is unlikely to continue to be as easy as it soon rests on cost-cutting Americans who have lost their jobs. There is an impressive share of Americans who have not lost their jobs but switched to a crisis mode of consumption, fearing for their work in the future.
Nevertheless, it will not be superfluous to look at the broader picture. Despite the rebound, retail sales are 8.3% below the January peak. Excluding auto, the decrease is 8.8%. As is the case with labour market data, the initial rebound in macroeconomic data is unlikely to continue to be as easy as it soon rests on cost-cutting Americans who have lost their jobs. There is an impressive share of Americans who have not lost their jobs but switched to a crisis mode of consumption, fearing for their work in the future.
Chevron reversed from multi-month support level 88.75
Likely to rise 103.00
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/chevron-wave-analysis-16-june-2020-20200616/
Likely to rise 103.00
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/chevron-wave-analysis-16-june-2020-20200616/
Over the last day, 142.6K new cases of COVID-19 were detected worldwide vs 124.6K last day and 121.1K this day a week ago. The number of recovered was 106.8K vs 90.8K earlier. The total number of cases now is 8.26M, of which 3.50M is active, 4.32M recovered, and 446.1K died. The five countries with the highest daily growth are Brazil (37.3K), the US (25.5K), India (11.1K), Russia (8.2K), Chile (5.0K). Except for a few days in June, the number of active cases continues to grow. A spike in new cases in Brazil due to weak restrictive measures. In the USA, the increase was due to the unrest that took place in previous weeks.
WTI reversed from key support level 35.00
Likely to rise 40.00
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wti-wave-analysis-16-june-2020-20200616/
Likely to rise 40.00
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wti-wave-analysis-16-june-2020-20200616/
#WaveAnalysis
EURGBP reversed from resistance area
Likely to fall 0.8865
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurgbp-wave-analysis-16-june-2020-20200616/
EURGBP reversed from resistance area
Likely to fall 0.8865
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurgbp-wave-analysis-16-june-2020-20200616/
Fragile market growth: investors are quickly switching to sales
Purchasing in equity markets strengthened after the publication of data on the sharpest increase in retail sales in the U.S. in history. But this rally wasn’t sustainable. During the day, S&P slid by 2.4% after the release of industrial production data and Powell’s speech. The head of the Fed reiterated the idea that it would take years to analyze the consequences of coronavirus in the economy. And before that, it was reported that industrial production grew by 1.4% in May. What a contrast to the 17.7% growth in consumer spending! Americans have quickly returned to shopping, increasing speculation around the V-shaped recovery, while the production dynamics are still taking the L-shape.
Among other worrying factors, it is worth mentioning the currency market. The Chinese yuan, the Australian dollar, and the Japanese yen are signalling at least waiting approach, if not a decrease in demand for risk assets.
Purchasing in equity markets strengthened after the publication of data on the sharpest increase in retail sales in the U.S. in history. But this rally wasn’t sustainable. During the day, S&P slid by 2.4% after the release of industrial production data and Powell’s speech. The head of the Fed reiterated the idea that it would take years to analyze the consequences of coronavirus in the economy. And before that, it was reported that industrial production grew by 1.4% in May. What a contrast to the 17.7% growth in consumer spending! Americans have quickly returned to shopping, increasing speculation around the V-shaped recovery, while the production dynamics are still taking the L-shape.
Among other worrying factors, it is worth mentioning the currency market. The Chinese yuan, the Australian dollar, and the Japanese yen are signalling at least waiting approach, if not a decrease in demand for risk assets.