Over the last day, 106.5K new cases of COVID-19 were detected worldwide vs 91.8K day ago and 102.5K this day a week ago. The number of recovered was 66.8K (65.1K earlier). The total number of cases is 5.79M, of which 2.94M is active, 2.50M recovered, and 357.5 died. The five countries with the highest daily growth are Brazil (22.3K), the US (20.5K), Russia (8.3K), India (7.3K), Peru (6.1K). Brazil came first in the number of new cases. Over the week, the share of the US in total cases has declined from 31% to 30%, Spain - from 5.49% to 4.9%, the UK - from 4.88% to 4.6%. The share of Brazil increased from 5.8% to 7.16%, Russia - from 6.06% to 6.40%.
US market stars drop off the radar
FAANG idea has worked out powerfully in the last two months.
Stocks of Amazon, Netflix, and Facebook – not only quickly recovered from the collapse in March, but also updated historical highs with a large margin. Microsoft and Apple have returned to their peak levels reached earlier this year. However, they’ve been feeling worse than the market in general in recent days.
Amazon experience profit-taking recently
Boeing and Ford, as well as the banking sector, have been growing weaker than others since March’s collapse, but are showing more positive momentum since May 15.
FAANG idea has worked out powerfully in the last two months.
Stocks of Amazon, Netflix, and Facebook – not only quickly recovered from the collapse in March, but also updated historical highs with a large margin. Microsoft and Apple have returned to their peak levels reached earlier this year. However, they’ve been feeling worse than the market in general in recent days.
Amazon experience profit-taking recently
Boeing and Ford, as well as the banking sector, have been growing weaker than others since March’s collapse, but are showing more positive momentum since May 15.
Is Bitcoin the new Netscape?
Bitcoin is again above $9K, but there is not much excitement among market participants. Bitcoin decreased by almost 4% in the last week. After halving, the new driver for the crypto sphere is the approaching launch of CBDC (central bank digital currencies) projects.
However, from the position of Bitcoin-maximalists, this is the most astonishing point of view. It turns out that the base crypto idea has outlived itself. In this way, Bitcoin looks like the hero of the Dot-com bubble – Netscape, that gave the technology itself and set the overall direction but could not ride the wave.
Bitcoin is again above $9K, but there is not much excitement among market participants. Bitcoin decreased by almost 4% in the last week. After halving, the new driver for the crypto sphere is the approaching launch of CBDC (central bank digital currencies) projects.
However, from the position of Bitcoin-maximalists, this is the most astonishing point of view. It turns out that the base crypto idea has outlived itself. In this way, Bitcoin looks like the hero of the Dot-com bubble – Netscape, that gave the technology itself and set the overall direction but could not ride the wave.
Consumer inflation in Germany slows further. Published preliminary estimates showed a 0.1% price decline in May, and 0.6% to this month year ago, from 0.9% in April and 1.7% in January-February. On average, analysts expected a slight, 0.1% increase this month.
In theory, the weakest consumer inflation in four years may give the ECB space to soften monetary policy as it reflects a deterioration in consumer activity.
The reaction of the single currency may not be as sharp as before. Investors and traders are also putting their weight on the stimulus announced by European Commission yesterday and budget expenditures, as well as negative rates in the Euro-region, which will allow the ECB to continue to nod towards fiscal policy. The combination of the ECB’s inaction and low inflation is a plus for the euro, as it retains its real (adjusted for inflation) purchasing power.
In theory, the weakest consumer inflation in four years may give the ECB space to soften monetary policy as it reflects a deterioration in consumer activity.
The reaction of the single currency may not be as sharp as before. Investors and traders are also putting their weight on the stimulus announced by European Commission yesterday and budget expenditures, as well as negative rates in the Euro-region, which will allow the ECB to continue to nod towards fiscal policy. The combination of the ECB’s inaction and low inflation is a plus for the euro, as it retains its real (adjusted for inflation) purchasing power.
Signs of recovery in the US labour market
Last week, the number of initial claims for benefits exceeded 2.12 million. This is the smallest number in ten weeks, but still historically unseen levels. The number of new claims is falling extremely slowly, noting further cuts in business.
However, data on continued claims for benefits gave an important positive signal, decreased by 3.86 million over the week. People are returning to work (or finding a new one). Of course, the United States is only at the beginning of the road, and the number of continued claims is unlikely to return to the pre-pandemic level of 1.7 million in the foreseeable future. Although, this is the first sign that the lowest point for employment (and markets) may be behind us.
Last week, the number of initial claims for benefits exceeded 2.12 million. This is the smallest number in ten weeks, but still historically unseen levels. The number of new claims is falling extremely slowly, noting further cuts in business.
However, data on continued claims for benefits gave an important positive signal, decreased by 3.86 million over the week. People are returning to work (or finding a new one). Of course, the United States is only at the beginning of the road, and the number of continued claims is unlikely to return to the pre-pandemic level of 1.7 million in the foreseeable future. Although, this is the first sign that the lowest point for employment (and markets) may be behind us.
Over the last day, 116.3K new cases of COVID-19 were detected worldwide (new record) vs 106.5K day ago and 107.1K this day a week ago. The number of recovered was 82.4K (66.8K earlier). The total number of cases is 5.91M, of which 2.96M is active, 2.58M recovered, and 362 died. The five countries with the highest daily growth are Brazil (24.1K), the US (22.7K), Russia (8.4K), India (7.3K), Peru (5.9K). Brazil came first in the number of new cases. The rate of closed cases is 49.8%, of which 12.3% died, this number decreased from 22% in early April.
EURUSD and S&P500 gave a strong bullish signal. Is growth ahead?
The two most closely monitored instruments of the world markets, EURUSD and S&P500, signal a breakthrough of their downtrends.
Closing the week and month above the 200-day average and significant round mark will allow us to speak about a technical break of the downtrend formed in early 2018. And it is interesting because the fundamental reasons for this downtrend are gaining strength again.
Technically, Euro is now quite low by historical standards, that means the absence of sellers. Moreover, it receives support from the SNB, which is selling francs for the euro.
Thus, markets are generating very volatile growth based on technical factors and short-term impulses, but without taking into account the fundamental weakness. This is a very fragile structure that could collapse at any moment.
The two most closely monitored instruments of the world markets, EURUSD and S&P500, signal a breakthrough of their downtrends.
Closing the week and month above the 200-day average and significant round mark will allow us to speak about a technical break of the downtrend formed in early 2018. And it is interesting because the fundamental reasons for this downtrend are gaining strength again.
Technically, Euro is now quite low by historical standards, that means the absence of sellers. Moreover, it receives support from the SNB, which is selling francs for the euro.
Thus, markets are generating very volatile growth based on technical factors and short-term impulses, but without taking into account the fundamental weakness. This is a very fragile structure that could collapse at any moment.
Americans unprecedentedly saved in April, and that isn’t good
April data on US personal spending and income showed a very wary mood of the Americans. A recent publication notes income growth by 10.5% in April (vs -7% expected) after a decrease of 2.2% in March. But the rate of outlays cut doubled to 13.6% after 6.9% a month earlier.
The share of savings to disposable income reached an unprecedented 33%
It is positive that revenues showed a sharp increase, and did not collapse, as was expected, despite the drop in employment. This remains the hope of a recovery in demand. It is alarming that the US population is unprecedentedly saving, which portends a prolonged economic downturn amid cost-cutting.
April data on US personal spending and income showed a very wary mood of the Americans. A recent publication notes income growth by 10.5% in April (vs -7% expected) after a decrease of 2.2% in March. But the rate of outlays cut doubled to 13.6% after 6.9% a month earlier.
The share of savings to disposable income reached an unprecedented 33%
It is positive that revenues showed a sharp increase, and did not collapse, as was expected, despite the drop in employment. This remains the hope of a recovery in demand. It is alarming that the US population is unprecedentedly saving, which portends a prolonged economic downturn amid cost-cutting.
• USDJPY reversed from resistance area
• Likely to fall to 106.80
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdjpy-wave-analysis-29-may-2020-20200529/
• Likely to fall to 106.80
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdjpy-wave-analysis-29-may-2020-20200529/
• Gold reversed from support level 1695.00
• Likely to rise to 1766.13
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gold-wave-analysis-29-may-2020-20200529/
• Likely to rise to 1766.13
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gold-wave-analysis-29-may-2020-20200529/
• Silver broke resistance level 17.50
• Likely to rise to 18.90
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/silver-wave-analysis-29-may-2020-20200529/
• Likely to rise to 18.90
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/silver-wave-analysis-29-may-2020-20200529/
Over the last day, 108.8K new cases of COVID-19 were detected worldwide vs 124.1K and 125.5K on the previous two days and 96.5K a week ago. For the first time in global data, the number of recovered (109.5K) exceeded the number of new cases. The total number of cases is 6.27M, of which 3.05M is active, 2.85M recovered, and 374K died. The five countries with the highest daily growth are the US (20.4K), Brazil (16.4K), Russia (9.3K), Peru (8.8K), India (8.8K). Daily death has stabilized as the decline in Europe, and the US is offset by growth in South America and India.
Oil is back in the spotlight
Brent and WTI have returned to their mid-March levels at last month’s close and are rising cautiously at the start of trading on Monday. Brent is trading close to $38, and WTI overcame $35 amid talks for OPEC+ extension cuts.
Meanwhile, US drilling activity down despite some rebound of the price. Despite the historically low number of active US rigs (only 301, including 222 oil-producing), the demand shock of the previous months may well cause an even deeper and longer decline.
Also, it is worth paying attention to the new jump in crude stockpiles last week by eight mln barrels, despite the expected recovery in demand. At the same time, production continues to decline after reaching 11.4 mln barrels per day.
Brent and WTI have returned to their mid-March levels at last month’s close and are rising cautiously at the start of trading on Monday. Brent is trading close to $38, and WTI overcame $35 amid talks for OPEC+ extension cuts.
Meanwhile, US drilling activity down despite some rebound of the price. Despite the historically low number of active US rigs (only 301, including 222 oil-producing), the demand shock of the previous months may well cause an even deeper and longer decline.
Also, it is worth paying attention to the new jump in crude stockpiles last week by eight mln barrels, despite the expected recovery in demand. At the same time, production continues to decline after reaching 11.4 mln barrels per day.
Crypto-decompression is over
During the month, Bitcoin has been trying to break the global downtrend and exceed the $10,000 threshold, but the highs within these rebounds are getting lower each time. There is a feeling that the market is teasing buyers.
In the meantime, the network hash rate has started to rise again. This has been facilitated by the end of a drought in the Chinese province with high mining capacity. In addition, we can talk about the end of the “decompression period” after halving. It is expected that the weak players have left, the strong ones have become stronger and the least ineffective ASICs were turned off. These adjustments have resulted in the price of bitcoin, according to JP Morgan’s estimates, approaching its internal value, although from 2019 it was significantly higher.
During the month, Bitcoin has been trying to break the global downtrend and exceed the $10,000 threshold, but the highs within these rebounds are getting lower each time. There is a feeling that the market is teasing buyers.
In the meantime, the network hash rate has started to rise again. This has been facilitated by the end of a drought in the Chinese province with high mining capacity. In addition, we can talk about the end of the “decompression period” after halving. It is expected that the weak players have left, the strong ones have become stronger and the least ineffective ASICs were turned off. These adjustments have resulted in the price of bitcoin, according to JP Morgan’s estimates, approaching its internal value, although from 2019 it was significantly higher.
• USDCHF reversed from support level 0.9600
• Likely to rise to 0.9800
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdchf-wave-analysis-1-june-2020-20200601/
• Likely to rise to 0.9800
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdchf-wave-analysis-1-june-2020-20200601/
• AUDUSD broke resistance level 0.6670
• Likely to rise to 0.6850
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audusd-wave-analysis-1-june-2020-20200601/
• Likely to rise to 0.6850
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audusd-wave-analysis-1-june-2020-20200601/
• Platinum reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to 940.00
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/platinum-wave-analysis-1-june-2020-20200601/
• Likely to rise to 940.00
#WaveAnalysis
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/platinum-wave-analysis-1-june-2020-20200601/
Over the last day, 103.9K new cases of COVID-19 were detected worldwide vs 108.1K day earlier and 89.8K a week ago. The number of recovered was 56.4K (109.5K). The total number of cases is 6.37M, of which 3.09M is active, 2.9M recovered, and 377.6K died. The five countries with the highest daily growth are the US (22.2K), Brazil (14.6K), Russia (9.0K), India (7.8K), Peru (5.6K). In terms of the number of new deaths per day, Brazil is comparable to the US, with approximately 730 cases last day, and at the end of last week this figure exceeded 1000, but it seems to have declined.
Market greed is closer to saturation
US public companies have sold new shares for $60 billion in May. Even more actively they raising money through debt markets, attracting more than $1 trillion so far this year.
The central banks became almost the largest buyers of assets in the markets at the moment. For example, the Bank of Japan bought up about 80% of local ETFs. The Fed bought $2.8 trillion worth of securities in less than three months. But there is a limit to these purchases, as we can hardly expect central banks to be the only holders of private assets.
Last week the Fed’s balance sheet rose by $60B against $103B and $213B in the previous two weeks. The launch of the new program in early May started with big purchases, but now it is losing momentum.
So there are reasons to believe that demand for risks on the markets is limited, and the saturation point is very close.
US public companies have sold new shares for $60 billion in May. Even more actively they raising money through debt markets, attracting more than $1 trillion so far this year.
The central banks became almost the largest buyers of assets in the markets at the moment. For example, the Bank of Japan bought up about 80% of local ETFs. The Fed bought $2.8 trillion worth of securities in less than three months. But there is a limit to these purchases, as we can hardly expect central banks to be the only holders of private assets.
Last week the Fed’s balance sheet rose by $60B against $103B and $213B in the previous two weeks. The launch of the new program in early May started with big purchases, but now it is losing momentum.
So there are reasons to believe that demand for risks on the markets is limited, and the saturation point is very close.