Oil and the euro are bureaucracy victims
This is a case where multilateral negotiations are evil. Comprehensive and coordinated steps turn into an endless chain of talks. This applies to both the oil market and the pan-European support package.
Europe’s bureaucratic machine showed itself in a negative light this morning when the EU could not agree on a €500 billion stimulus package, postponing negotiations to Thursday. These reports turned the euro down, taking about 0.5% in half an hour.
The same can be said about approaching Mega-Opec negotiations. The chances that the US, Canada and, say, Norway will join the agreement are decreasing.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/oil-and-the-euro-are-bureaucracy-victims-20200408/
This is a case where multilateral negotiations are evil. Comprehensive and coordinated steps turn into an endless chain of talks. This applies to both the oil market and the pan-European support package.
Europe’s bureaucratic machine showed itself in a negative light this morning when the EU could not agree on a €500 billion stimulus package, postponing negotiations to Thursday. These reports turned the euro down, taking about 0.5% in half an hour.
The same can be said about approaching Mega-Opec negotiations. The chances that the US, Canada and, say, Norway will join the agreement are decreasing.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/oil-and-the-euro-are-bureaucracy-victims-20200408/
Futures for S&P500 added 1.2% after closing almost zero the day before. All worsening economic forecasts against the background of general lockdown do not give up markets from negative cautious mood. DAX is losing 0.6% today, CAC40 is decreasing by 0.6%, FTSE100 down 1.0%.
The FX market volatility falling further, but is still above average levels for six months to March. DXY has stabilized at around 100, dropping slightly in recent hours. The currency market moves are without a single dynamics, showed a wait-and-see attitude.
Gold has stabilized around $ 1650, sharply reducing fluctuations, further indicating a waiting approach in the markets.
Brent returned to $ 33.1, to this week lows, in anticipation of an expanded OPEC+ meeting (Apr 9) and subsequent consultations within the G20 Energy Ministries (Apr 10).
Investors hope to see flattening growth of the new coronavirus cases and positive impact of stimulus on global economic recovery.
The FX market volatility falling further, but is still above average levels for six months to March. DXY has stabilized at around 100, dropping slightly in recent hours. The currency market moves are without a single dynamics, showed a wait-and-see attitude.
Gold has stabilized around $ 1650, sharply reducing fluctuations, further indicating a waiting approach in the markets.
Brent returned to $ 33.1, to this week lows, in anticipation of an expanded OPEC+ meeting (Apr 9) and subsequent consultations within the G20 Energy Ministries (Apr 10).
Investors hope to see flattening growth of the new coronavirus cases and positive impact of stimulus on global economic recovery.
#WaveAnalysis
AT&T (#T) reversed from resistance area
Likely to fall to 28.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/att-wave-analysis-08-april-2019-20200408/
AT&T (#T) reversed from resistance area
Likely to fall to 28.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/att-wave-analysis-08-april-2019-20200408/
#WaveAnalysis
#Sugar reversed from resistance area
Likely to fall to 10.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/sugar-wave-analysis-08-april-2019-20200408/
#Sugar reversed from resistance area
Likely to fall to 10.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/sugar-wave-analysis-08-april-2019-20200408/
Over the past day, there were new 84.4K infection cases detected in the world against 80.1K week ago and 85.1K a day earlier (updated data). The total number of cases exceeded 1.5M, of which 1.1M are active cases, 330K recovered, and 88.5K died. In the USA, it was detected 31.9K new cases over the last 24 hours, which renews hopes for flattening of the pace of contagion. Spain reported an increase from 5K three days ago to 6.3K, but this below the number at the end of March (above 8K daily). In Britain it was a jump by 5.5K against the “norm” of 3.3K. Forward-looking markets are considering this information as the first signals of flattening the curve that ease markets pressure.
Markets are growing in the hope of politicians
World markets returned to growth on Wednesday on new signs of stabilization in the number of new cases of coronavirus infection.
An expanded OPEC conference-call is due today. According to recent press reports, the axe of the war between Russia and Saudi Arabia is buried.
It is logical to expect that Russia and Saudi Arabia will try to find such a scale of production cuts that will keep prices from further decline, but prevent from increasing output in the US. This is a delicate balance act that requires constant coordination of efforts. However, the words “coordination” and “working together” may become synonymous with rising oil prices in the coming months.
Another critical topic is the economic support packages that are stuck in the EU and US legislative circles.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/markets-are-growing-in-the-hope-of-politicians-20200409/
World markets returned to growth on Wednesday on new signs of stabilization in the number of new cases of coronavirus infection.
An expanded OPEC conference-call is due today. According to recent press reports, the axe of the war between Russia and Saudi Arabia is buried.
It is logical to expect that Russia and Saudi Arabia will try to find such a scale of production cuts that will keep prices from further decline, but prevent from increasing output in the US. This is a delicate balance act that requires constant coordination of efforts. However, the words “coordination” and “working together” may become synonymous with rising oil prices in the coming months.
Another critical topic is the economic support packages that are stuck in the EU and US legislative circles.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/markets-are-growing-in-the-hope-of-politicians-20200409/
Will halving help the crypto market?
Because of the incredibly rich negative news background, the participants in the crypto market began to forget about purely “cryptocurrency” events.
Nevertheless, they happen. Yesterday the halving occurred in the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) network. At ordinary times it would have been quite a remarkable event for the whole sector.
However, altcoins may behave not as benchmark cryptocurrency. Litecoin, which experienced halving last year, is now trading close to the lows of the “crypto winter”. Probably, such a scenario can wait for Bitcoin Cash (BCH).
https://fxpro.news/analysis-and-insight/will-halving-help-the-crypto-market-20200409/
Because of the incredibly rich negative news background, the participants in the crypto market began to forget about purely “cryptocurrency” events.
Nevertheless, they happen. Yesterday the halving occurred in the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) network. At ordinary times it would have been quite a remarkable event for the whole sector.
However, altcoins may behave not as benchmark cryptocurrency. Litecoin, which experienced halving last year, is now trading close to the lows of the “crypto winter”. Probably, such a scenario can wait for Bitcoin Cash (BCH).
https://fxpro.news/analysis-and-insight/will-halving-help-the-crypto-market-20200409/
S&P500 added 1.2% after rising 3.4% the day before as new Fed's $2.3 trillion loan program shadowed further surge in jobless claims. DAX grew 2.0% today, CAC40 strengthened by 1.7%, FTSE100 - at 2.1%.
Currency market volatility continues to decline. DXY turned to a sharp decline after the Fed announcement. Markets await Powell's follow-up comments. The dollar recedes on a broad front, primarily to the more yielded currencies.
Gold rose more than 2.2% to $1,680 amid a weakening greenback and fears that injections of liquidity from the Fed are undermining its value.
Brent rose to $ 35.0 - this week highs - on expectations of an OPEC+ agreement to cut Crude Oil supply.
Currency market volatility continues to decline. DXY turned to a sharp decline after the Fed announcement. Markets await Powell's follow-up comments. The dollar recedes on a broad front, primarily to the more yielded currencies.
Gold rose more than 2.2% to $1,680 amid a weakening greenback and fears that injections of liquidity from the Fed are undermining its value.
Brent rose to $ 35.0 - this week highs - on expectations of an OPEC+ agreement to cut Crude Oil supply.
Over the past day, there was reported 85.6K total new cases against 101.7K a week ago and 84.4K a day earlier (updated data). The total number of cases exceeded 1.6M, of which 1.15M are active, 356K recovered, and 95.7K died. US reported 33.5K yesterday, approximately the same as the last few days. Distribution has also stabilized for the most of Europe. Now, attention is shifting to large developing countries -Turkey, India, Brazil, Russia - where spreading continues to accelerate. Markets see this information as the first signals of stabilization, and economic measures are becoming the main subject of hope and concern.
Trading schedule changes due to Easter holidays
Please pay attention that on April 09-13, 2020, the trading schedule for several instruments will be changed due to Good Friday and the following Easter holidays.
The above schedule may be subject to change.
Please, visit Market Holidays page for more details.
Trade Responsibly. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75.76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Please pay attention that on April 09-13, 2020, the trading schedule for several instruments will be changed due to Good Friday and the following Easter holidays.
The above schedule may be subject to change.
Please, visit Market Holidays page for more details.
Trade Responsibly. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75.76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
OPEC+ uneven coordination
OPEC+ has agreed to reduce production by 10M BPD, and another 5M will be from countries outside this expanded list. This is an unprecedented cut in terms of both depth and width. However, the agreement is conditional: the reduction will take place from May to June and quotas will continue to increase gradually from the initial -23% to -14% by the end of the year. Mexico refused the proposed conditions (negotiations with the country will continue).
The oil market reacted negatively to the announced measures, returning Brent prices to this week lows near $32.50 against a peak of $37.00 on Thursday. Negotiations in a slightly different format will continue on Friday, which promises a restless start of the next trading week.
Despite the difficulties and conditional agreement, we can speak about the return of Russia and Saudi Arabia from price wars to negotiations and coordination. This suggests that the uncontrolled price collapse seen in March is a thing of the past.
OPEC+ has agreed to reduce production by 10M BPD, and another 5M will be from countries outside this expanded list. This is an unprecedented cut in terms of both depth and width. However, the agreement is conditional: the reduction will take place from May to June and quotas will continue to increase gradually from the initial -23% to -14% by the end of the year. Mexico refused the proposed conditions (negotiations with the country will continue).
The oil market reacted negatively to the announced measures, returning Brent prices to this week lows near $32.50 against a peak of $37.00 on Thursday. Negotiations in a slightly different format will continue on Friday, which promises a restless start of the next trading week.
Despite the difficulties and conditional agreement, we can speak about the return of Russia and Saudi Arabia from price wars to negotiations and coordination. This suggests that the uncontrolled price collapse seen in March is a thing of the past.
Fed’s step may undermine the dollar
The EU has agreed on a 560 billion euro aid package. This does not look like the final price to fight the current crisis, but it is a good starting point.
However, the real info bomb is the announcement of new measures from the Fed. The US central bank has announced a new program under which it can buy back corporate bonds up to BBB-/Baa3. The most important, that the Fed will look at the rating on March 22, i.e. until the recent (and possible future) massive cuts from rating agencies. Due to leverage, the volume of purchases under this program may reach $2.3 trillion.
This is a tectonic shift on the central bank’s side, the consequences of which will affect markets for a long time.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/feds-step-may-undermine-the-dollar-opec-uneven-coordination-20200410/
The EU has agreed on a 560 billion euro aid package. This does not look like the final price to fight the current crisis, but it is a good starting point.
However, the real info bomb is the announcement of new measures from the Fed. The US central bank has announced a new program under which it can buy back corporate bonds up to BBB-/Baa3. The most important, that the Fed will look at the rating on March 22, i.e. until the recent (and possible future) massive cuts from rating agencies. Due to leverage, the volume of purchases under this program may reach $2.3 trillion.
This is a tectonic shift on the central bank’s side, the consequences of which will affect markets for a long time.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/feds-step-may-undermine-the-dollar-opec-uneven-coordination-20200410/
Bitcoin lost more than 4% in one day, pulling down the rest of the crypto market. As is often the case, the sideway price trend ends with a sale for bitcoin. At the moment, the benchmark cryptocurrency has rolled back below the round level of $7K, which can hardly be considered a disaster.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which has barely begun to rise recently, has plummeted back to 15, which corresponds to "extreme fear". If buyers do not support Bitcoin soon, the situation may go even more harmful.
Recently "halved" Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin SV (BSV) are down by more than 9% amid disappointment in the crypto community. According to WhalteAlert, unknown whales moved 49,342 BTC (USD 361,016,972). These bitcoins were moved between two wallets. Often after such large movements, the market is experiencing increased dynamics in either direction.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which has barely begun to rise recently, has plummeted back to 15, which corresponds to "extreme fear". If buyers do not support Bitcoin soon, the situation may go even more harmful.
Recently "halved" Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin SV (BSV) are down by more than 9% amid disappointment in the crypto community. According to WhalteAlert, unknown whales moved 49,342 BTC (USD 361,016,972). These bitcoins were moved between two wallets. Often after such large movements, the market is experiencing increased dynamics in either direction.
#WaveAnalysis
#NZDUSD broke round resistance level 0.6000
Likely to rise to 0.6200
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdusd-wave-analysis-10-april-2019-20200410/
#NZDUSD broke round resistance level 0.6000
Likely to rise to 0.6200
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdusd-wave-analysis-10-april-2019-20200410/
#WaveAnalysis
#Disney approached resistance level 105,00
Likely to fall to 92.40
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/disney-wave-analysis-10-april-2019-20200410/
#Disney approached resistance level 105,00
Likely to fall to 92.40
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/disney-wave-analysis-10-april-2019-20200410/
A new week starts with hopes for a reversal of the spreading trend of COVID-19. Over the past day, 72.5K new cases of infection were detected in the world against 71.5K a week earlier and 81K a day more first (data updated). The total number of cases exceeded 1.85M, of which 1.32M were active cases, 430K recovered, and 114K died. The global picture marks the plateau of the new daily cases and a decrease in the European countries - earlier hotspots. Positive: the number of critical cases has been stable throughout the week, about 50K, and the number of recoveries shows an exponential increase. Packages of economic measures and published statistics with first estimates of the extent of impact on the economy are becoming the main subject of hope and concern.
Historic OPEC+ deal saves Oil from freefall but does not promise fast growth
OPEC+ made a historic agreement. The price wars between Saudi Arabia and Russia are over, and this supported the oil. According to estimates of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, in the next two months, Crude Oil producers will reduce production by 19-20 million BPD.
However, it should not be assumed that from now, the oil market will go up. And there are several reasons for that:
significant reserves have already been accumulated while supplies cut will start in May;
world demand has collapsed twice as much as the agreed cuts by countries;
the recovery of global demand promises to be slow amid demand collapse in Europe and the US even beyond quarantine restrictions.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/historic-opec-deal-saves-oil-from-freefall-but-does-not-promise-fast-growth-20200413/
OPEC+ made a historic agreement. The price wars between Saudi Arabia and Russia are over, and this supported the oil. According to estimates of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, in the next two months, Crude Oil producers will reduce production by 19-20 million BPD.
However, it should not be assumed that from now, the oil market will go up. And there are several reasons for that:
significant reserves have already been accumulated while supplies cut will start in May;
world demand has collapsed twice as much as the agreed cuts by countries;
the recovery of global demand promises to be slow amid demand collapse in Europe and the US even beyond quarantine restrictions.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/historic-opec-deal-saves-oil-from-freefall-but-does-not-promise-fast-growth-20200413/
Which instrument do you see as the most interesting to trade this week?
Anonymous Poll
33%
EURUSD
28%
Gold
31%
Crude Oil
7%
Stocks and Indices
Bitcoin buried on the way to $7,000
Sideway trends for bitcoin often end with sales, which was confirmed this time as well. On the weekend, Bitcoin made a deceptive leap above $7,100, where it faced stiff resistance. At the beginning of the working week, Bitcoin is losing 2% to $6,700. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index continued to decline, falling another 9 points from last week, remaining in “extreme fear” zone for a month.
A year ago, the crypto market began to recover from “crypto winter”. Bitcoin was still 32% above its levels a year ago. Bitcoin’s third halving is a month away. Previously, market participants had high hopes for this event, but the experience of Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin showed that everything might go wrong.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/bitcoin-buried-on-the-way-to-7000-20200413/
Sideway trends for bitcoin often end with sales, which was confirmed this time as well. On the weekend, Bitcoin made a deceptive leap above $7,100, where it faced stiff resistance. At the beginning of the working week, Bitcoin is losing 2% to $6,700. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index continued to decline, falling another 9 points from last week, remaining in “extreme fear” zone for a month.
A year ago, the crypto market began to recover from “crypto winter”. Bitcoin was still 32% above its levels a year ago. Bitcoin’s third halving is a month away. Previously, market participants had high hopes for this event, but the experience of Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin showed that everything might go wrong.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/bitcoin-buried-on-the-way-to-7000-20200413/
Futures for S&P500 today lose 0.3% after rising 1.5% on Thursday. At the opening of the day, their decline exceeded about 2%, but gradually redeemed throughout the day. Today, there will be no trading on the highest European exchange.
The FX market volatility fell noticeably due to the Easter holidays. DXY has changed little since the beginning of the day. The dollar retreats to AUD, JPY and NZD, as well as GBP. It adds to European NOK, TRY, PLN, EUR.
Earlier today, Gold raised to $1695, one step from the 8-year highs near $1700, touched in March.
Brent opened the week at $34.60, and then had declined to $32.0 on speculations that the OPEC+ historic deal was insufficient with the current drop in demand.
The FX market volatility fell noticeably due to the Easter holidays. DXY has changed little since the beginning of the day. The dollar retreats to AUD, JPY and NZD, as well as GBP. It adds to European NOK, TRY, PLN, EUR.
Earlier today, Gold raised to $1695, one step from the 8-year highs near $1700, touched in March.
Brent opened the week at $34.60, and then had declined to $32.0 on speculations that the OPEC+ historic deal was insufficient with the current drop in demand.