The stalled rebound: markets brace for a longer recovery
The recent bounce in stocks has again attracted sellers among those who do not believe in the V-shaped rebound.
Our currencies as indicators of market sentiment stepped down from recent extremums, indicating that there is still a long way ahead.
AUDUSD finished the rebound and reversed downward, paving the way back to levels below 0.6000.
EURUSD declining for the third consecutive day and failed to stay above the 200 SMA where it climbed at the end of last week.
USDCAD shows an indicative technical picture. From lows in January near 1.30 it soared to 1.4660. Subsequently, it stabilized at 1.4000, in line with the Fibonacci corrections.
According to this theory, the subsequent growth in the pair may target levels near 1.5700, where USDCAD hasn’t been since 2002.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/the-stalled-rebound-markets-brace-for-a-longer-recovery-20200401/
The recent bounce in stocks has again attracted sellers among those who do not believe in the V-shaped rebound.
Our currencies as indicators of market sentiment stepped down from recent extremums, indicating that there is still a long way ahead.
AUDUSD finished the rebound and reversed downward, paving the way back to levels below 0.6000.
EURUSD declining for the third consecutive day and failed to stay above the 200 SMA where it climbed at the end of last week.
USDCAD shows an indicative technical picture. From lows in January near 1.30 it soared to 1.4660. Subsequently, it stabilized at 1.4000, in line with the Fibonacci corrections.
According to this theory, the subsequent growth in the pair may target levels near 1.5700, where USDCAD hasn’t been since 2002.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/the-stalled-rebound-markets-brace-for-a-longer-recovery-20200401/
Just as shockingly unprecedented was the data on initial jobless claims last week, the ADP's employment report looks just as surprisingly normal-ish. According to it, the was only 27K job loss against the expected fall by -150K. These are too-good-to-be-true data to reflect the picture for the month. Digging into the details of the survey showed that the report based on data collected until March 12. That is, up to a week of terrifying jump in claims. In this case, a positive headline is unlikely to have a noticeable effect on markets.
This week, our readers' interest fell on EURUSD, which leads by a wide margin. The chaotic moves of the world's most liquid currency pair which considered by many as a market barometer attract heightened attention. The volatility in gold fell, which immediately affected the interest in it. Oil and indices/stocks have received almost equal attention from traders. About the prospects for this week's winner, our next question ...
#WaveAnalysis
#EURCHF reversed from resistance area
Likely to fall to 1.0525
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurchf-wave-analysis-01-april-2019-20200401/
#EURCHF reversed from resistance area
Likely to fall to 1.0525
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurchf-wave-analysis-01-april-2019-20200401/
US markets are losing 2.4% - 2.5% on Wednesday, after falling 2.2% on Tuesday. Markets are under pressure on news of accelerated growth in the number of infected and reports of intentions to extend quarantine in Europe.
DXY grew so far this week following the drawdown of risky assets. EURUSD rolled back to 1.0930. GBPUSD gains support on dips below 1.24. The volatility of the foreign exchange market fell to the levels of three weeks ago.
Gold returned to growth, having received support on the decline to $ 1575.
Brent fell to $ 25, updating lows since 2002. WTI stabilized at $ 22.3. Pressure on the quotes is exerted by news about the growth of supplies from Saudi Arabia.
The tipping point with the spread of coronavirus has not yet arrived, maintaining a shaky foundation under market recovery.
DXY grew so far this week following the drawdown of risky assets. EURUSD rolled back to 1.0930. GBPUSD gains support on dips below 1.24. The volatility of the foreign exchange market fell to the levels of three weeks ago.
Gold returned to growth, having received support on the decline to $ 1575.
Brent fell to $ 25, updating lows since 2002. WTI stabilized at $ 22.3. Pressure on the quotes is exerted by news about the growth of supplies from Saudi Arabia.
The tipping point with the spread of coronavirus has not yet arrived, maintaining a shaky foundation under market recovery.
Over the past day, the number of new coronavirus infection cases in the world increased by 75.1K against 61.9K a week earlier (as a day earlier). In the US, there were 25.2K new cases detected (26.4K a day earlier). The numbers are high, but the first signs of inhibition are already appearing. On the eve, Trump warns of horrors to come caused a pressure on the markets, but the volatility there decreased, bringing us closer to another phase - reassurance after a panic and finding a turning point.
From panic to rebuilding?
Asian indices started trading on Thursday with a decline, follow US counterparts. However, they turned to growth amid signs of stabilization of new cases of infections.
The FX market, an indicator of the big capital’s mood, is already showing a change in sentiment with fall of volatility.
Unfortunately, the recovery is unlikely to be as sharp as the downturn in March and April.
It won’t be an exaggeration to say that in many cases, business processes have to be rethought. And it’s a long way with a possible change of stock market leaders.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/from-panic-to-rebuilding-20200402/
Asian indices started trading on Thursday with a decline, follow US counterparts. However, they turned to growth amid signs of stabilization of new cases of infections.
The FX market, an indicator of the big capital’s mood, is already showing a change in sentiment with fall of volatility.
Unfortunately, the recovery is unlikely to be as sharp as the downturn in March and April.
It won’t be an exaggeration to say that in many cases, business processes have to be rethought. And it’s a long way with a possible change of stock market leaders.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/from-panic-to-rebuilding-20200402/
Futures for US indices add about 1% on Thursday after 4.4% drop on Wednesday. The careful optimism on markets from the slowdown in the growth of new virus cases is balancing with gloomy expectations of the impact of quarantine on the labour market.
DXY develop its growth this week. EURUSD fell below 1.0900 on reports of soaring unemployment in the euro-region. GBPUSD, however, has managed to stay afloat today. The volatility of the foreign exchange market continues to decline, giving way to the formation of long-term trends.
Gold rose to $ 1,605 in response to a shift in sentiment in commodity markets.
Brent is adding 6% to $ 27.7 in the spot markets today. Reports of Saudi Arabia’s preparedness to discuss Oil market balance measures caused a 13% jump in quotes in less than 12 hours to $ 28.5. Lately the price eased somewhat.
Investors are waiting for signs of stabilization in the number of infected as the first starting point for further assessing the prospects for the economy and markets.
DXY develop its growth this week. EURUSD fell below 1.0900 on reports of soaring unemployment in the euro-region. GBPUSD, however, has managed to stay afloat today. The volatility of the foreign exchange market continues to decline, giving way to the formation of long-term trends.
Gold rose to $ 1,605 in response to a shift in sentiment in commodity markets.
Brent is adding 6% to $ 27.7 in the spot markets today. Reports of Saudi Arabia’s preparedness to discuss Oil market balance measures caused a 13% jump in quotes in less than 12 hours to $ 28.5. Lately the price eased somewhat.
Investors are waiting for signs of stabilization in the number of infected as the first starting point for further assessing the prospects for the economy and markets.
With increased volumes, is crypto ready for growth?
Bitcoin climbed by 5% in the last 24 hours and is trading at around $6,650.
Traders at Coinbase have prepared for the market rebound in advance. Coinbase data showed a significant increase in trading activity and demand for the purchase of leading digital currencies immediately after the collapse of the crypto market on March 12. Traders bought the dips, which allowed the market to bounce back quickly, but a full-scale reversal required much larger volumes.
https://fxpro.news/analysis-and-insight/with-increased-volumes-is-crypto-ready-for-growth-20200402/
Bitcoin climbed by 5% in the last 24 hours and is trading at around $6,650.
Traders at Coinbase have prepared for the market rebound in advance. Coinbase data showed a significant increase in trading activity and demand for the purchase of leading digital currencies immediately after the collapse of the crypto market on March 12. Traders bought the dips, which allowed the market to bounce back quickly, but a full-scale reversal required much larger volumes.
https://fxpro.news/analysis-and-insight/with-increased-volumes-is-crypto-ready-for-growth-20200402/
#WaveAnalysis
#WTI reversed from key support level 20.00
Likely to rise to 25.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wti-wave-analysis-02-april-2019-20200402/
#WTI reversed from key support level 20.00
Likely to rise to 25.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wti-wave-analysis-02-april-2019-20200402/
Over the past day, the number of new infections in the world increased by 80.6K cases against 63.7K a week earlier (75.1K a day earlier). The total number of infected people exceeded 1 million. The stabilisation of the spreading speed in the US was not confirmed: 30.1K were detected per day with more than 50% increase to the pace of the previous week. In Europe, for the most part, the number of new infections has stabilised. If this trend confirms, it can be used as an example of the USA, assuming 10-14 days of exponential growth of new cases after the introduction of a strict isolation or quarantine regime before the situation stabilises.
Trump offers hope for oil and more
Brent gave some gains after spike on Thursday amid market doubts about a sharp decline in production.
Neverless, Brent trades 16% above Wednesday’s lows. The oil growth the day before brought stock indices back to growth, allowing investors to forget the pain of the US labour market.
Now it seems that stabilization and some oil bounce may well be the light at the end of the tunnel that markets need now. With a resilient financial system, economic recovery will go much faster.
https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/trump-offers-hope-for-oil-20200403/
Brent gave some gains after spike on Thursday amid market doubts about a sharp decline in production.
Neverless, Brent trades 16% above Wednesday’s lows. The oil growth the day before brought stock indices back to growth, allowing investors to forget the pain of the US labour market.
Now it seems that stabilization and some oil bounce may well be the light at the end of the tunnel that markets need now. With a resilient financial system, economic recovery will go much faster.
https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/trump-offers-hope-for-oil-20200403/
#Bitcoin bounced to $7,100 and then declined to $6,800 by Friday morning. The growth took place amid help from growing trade volumes, which is an additional positive. Despite the price growth, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stay at “extreme fear” levels
https://fxpro.news/analysis-and-insight/bit-comment-bitcoin-growing-amid-fear-20200403/
https://fxpro.news/analysis-and-insight/bit-comment-bitcoin-growing-amid-fear-20200403/
US markets are losing about 0.7% on session start on Friday after rising 2.3% on Thursday. The data showed the economy losing 701K jobs. However, this report does not include the most recent two weeks, when cuts were most dramatic.
DXY has been adding 2.4% this week, returning half the decline in the previous five days. EURUSD slid under 1.0800 on speculation that political divisions would amplify the economic blow. GBPUSD went down. The FX volatility continues to decline, giving way to the longer-term trends.
Gold develops growth the second day, returning to the level of $1617 and having won back the decline at the beginning of the week.
Brent is trading at $33.7 in the spot market, adding 14% today. Expectations of unprecedented coordinated production cuts from OPEC, Russia and the US are supporting the growth.
Investors are waiting for signs of stabilization in the number of infected as the first starting point for further assessing the prospects for the economy and markets.
DXY has been adding 2.4% this week, returning half the decline in the previous five days. EURUSD slid under 1.0800 on speculation that political divisions would amplify the economic blow. GBPUSD went down. The FX volatility continues to decline, giving way to the longer-term trends.
Gold develops growth the second day, returning to the level of $1617 and having won back the decline at the beginning of the week.
Brent is trading at $33.7 in the spot market, adding 14% today. Expectations of unprecedented coordinated production cuts from OPEC, Russia and the US are supporting the growth.
Investors are waiting for signs of stabilization in the number of infected as the first starting point for further assessing the prospects for the economy and markets.
#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY reversed from multi-month support level 116.20
Likely to rise to 118.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurjpy-wave-analysis-03-april-2019-20200403/
#EURJPY reversed from multi-month support level 116.20
Likely to rise to 118.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurjpy-wave-analysis-03-april-2019-20200403/
#WaveAnalysis
#GBPCAD reversed from resistance level 1.7770
Likely to fall to 1.7200
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gbpcad-wave-analysis-03-april-2019-20200403/
#GBPCAD reversed from resistance level 1.7770
Likely to fall to 1.7200
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gbpcad-wave-analysis-03-april-2019-20200403/
The job’s report looks terrible only against its own series background. This was the first decline after about 10 years of continuous gains (113 months). But markets quickly dismissed this data, which did not take into account the dramatic shift in the labor market landscape in the previous two weeks, when the number of initial jobless claims soared almost 12x to 3.28M, and last week doubled to 6.6M.
On the whole, the foreign market reacted rather apathetically to the report, maintaining the trends of the last two days when the dollar regained its position. Earlier in March, the USD soared during huge market liquidation and great dollar thirst. Later, it lost about half of this growth on massive Fed liquidity injections. Now, it seems, a new phase in the dynamics of the markets is beginning: the markets will respond in accordance with the scale of economic losses from the coronavirus. The euro in this context looks like an outsider, and the pound is still relatively stable.
On the whole, the foreign market reacted rather apathetically to the report, maintaining the trends of the last two days when the dollar regained its position. Earlier in March, the USD soared during huge market liquidation and great dollar thirst. Later, it lost about half of this growth on massive Fed liquidity injections. Now, it seems, a new phase in the dynamics of the markets is beginning: the markets will respond in accordance with the scale of economic losses from the coronavirus. The euro in this context looks like an outsider, and the pound is still relatively stable.