Over the past day, the number of new cases of coronavirus infection in the world has increased by 60830 against 30648 a week earlier (48461 yesterday). With 85K cases identified, the US became the world's hotspot, overtaking China and Italy. The overnight growth there exceeded 17K, continuing to accelerate. In Spain, Italy, Germany, Britain, Iran, the spread accelerated too, again. At the same time, the markets keep a moderately positive mood due to injections of liquidity from central banks and in anticipation of government stimulus.
Bitcoin clung to a $6,700 level over the last three days, little changed over the previous 24 hours. After the collapse on March 13, the BTCUSD charts show a daily rise in intraday lows, which is a bull sign. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose to 65.6%. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index slipped a few points a day towards even more “extreme fears”. RSI is still in the neutral zone.
Despite the signs of future growth, it is still easy to see the hesitancy of the buyers. As long as the Fed fills the world with dollars and many governments approve stimulus packages, the economic situation is deteriorating daily. And these are just the first signals of impending problems. Of course, this may affect investor sentiment and prospects for the crypto market.
We have repeatedly seen Bitcoin breaking many support levels. Often, such negative price dynamics happened just after long sideways trends or periods of indecisive growth.
Despite the signs of future growth, it is still easy to see the hesitancy of the buyers. As long as the Fed fills the world with dollars and many governments approve stimulus packages, the economic situation is deteriorating daily. And these are just the first signals of impending problems. Of course, this may affect investor sentiment and prospects for the crypto market.
We have repeatedly seen Bitcoin breaking many support levels. Often, such negative price dynamics happened just after long sideways trends or periods of indecisive growth.
This is a rebound, not growth. For the economy, the worst is yet to come
American indices rose by more than 6% on Thursday, adding 21% to this week lows on massive stimulus hopes and central banks flooding the markets
However, investors need more cautious because bull market need not only indices bottomed out by 20% from the lows, but also signs of economic stabilization. There are still certain difficulties with this.
Published US jobless claims data showed 3.28M jump (more than three times worse than average expectations). And that was the reaction of the labour market for the week up to March 21, when the number of new coronavirus cases increased by 21.4k. Since then there has been a dramatic deterioration: only yesterday the increase in the number of cases in the US exceeded 17k to 85K total.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/this-is-a-rebound-not-growth-the-worst-is-yet-to-come-20200327/
American indices rose by more than 6% on Thursday, adding 21% to this week lows on massive stimulus hopes and central banks flooding the markets
However, investors need more cautious because bull market need not only indices bottomed out by 20% from the lows, but also signs of economic stabilization. There are still certain difficulties with this.
Published US jobless claims data showed 3.28M jump (more than three times worse than average expectations). And that was the reaction of the labour market for the week up to March 21, when the number of new coronavirus cases increased by 21.4k. Since then there has been a dramatic deterioration: only yesterday the increase in the number of cases in the US exceeded 17k to 85K total.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/this-is-a-rebound-not-growth-the-worst-is-yet-to-come-20200327/
For the third time this month, the Bank of Canada lowered its key policy rate. A decrease of 0.5 percentage points to 0.25% put the rate to the “lower effective bound”. Besides, BoC announced the launch of QE to support credit markets without specifying the end date. USDCAD is shakenly adding after the statements as not only Canada, but the US also are taking aggressive measures to soften its monetary policy.
#WaveAnalysis
#EURGBP broke round support level 0.9000
Likely to fall to 0.8800
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurgbp-wave-analysis-27-march-2019-20200327/
#EURGBP broke round support level 0.9000
Likely to fall to 0.8800
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurgbp-wave-analysis-27-march-2019-20200327/
#WaveAnalysis
#Natural Gas reversed from resistance area
Likely to fall to 1.600
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/natural-gas-wave-analysis-27-march-2019-20200327/
#Natural Gas reversed from resistance area
Likely to fall to 1.600
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/natural-gas-wave-analysis-27-march-2019-20200327/
US indices are losing 3.5% on Friday after 6.4% growth a day earlier. The market rebound due to injections of liquidity from the Central Bank and massive incentives stalls amid signals of a weakening economy.
DXY loses the 6th consecutive trading session following the massive Fed's QE and swap lines. EURUSD climbed to 1.1050. GBPUSD develops a sharp rebound, trading at 1.2400, starting the week at 1.1450. Commodity currencies are again weakening towards USD.
Gold is still having difficulty rising above $ 1,630.
Brent is losing more than 5% to $ 27.50 due to speculation around a sharp drop in demand and the lack of OPEC's desire to cut production.
The global tipping point with the spread of coronavirus has not yet arrived, maintaining a shaky foundation under market recovery.
DXY loses the 6th consecutive trading session following the massive Fed's QE and swap lines. EURUSD climbed to 1.1050. GBPUSD develops a sharp rebound, trading at 1.2400, starting the week at 1.1450. Commodity currencies are again weakening towards USD.
Gold is still having difficulty rising above $ 1,630.
Brent is losing more than 5% to $ 27.50 due to speculation around a sharp drop in demand and the lack of OPEC's desire to cut production.
The global tipping point with the spread of coronavirus has not yet arrived, maintaining a shaky foundation under market recovery.
Over the past day, the number of new infections in the world increased by 59.4K cases against 32.6 a week earlier (60830 on Friday). In the USA, the number of confirmed cases reached 142.5K - the growth rate has stabilised near 20K per day, gives way some hopes for contagion. The same can be said about Italy and many other developed countries. In Spain, the number of confirmed cases falls for the fifth day in a row. However, in many developing countries, spreading has not yet slowed.
Stronger EURUSD is a good sign for markets
With the authorities of all countries pushing the monetary easing pedal to the floor, it becomes even more difficult for traders in the currency market to identify trends. The last such example in modern history was in 2008/2009. As a result, we can conclude that currencies will be extremely volatile.
If EURUSD is an equally reliable indicator for the markets this time, then we can expect with some caution the repeal of the situation towards improvement.
Despite EURUSD rollback by 0.6% to 1.1070 from 1.1140, an important signal for traders is last week’s closing EURUSD above the 200-day average. Which often precedes a significant increase in pair purchases in the coming days and may also serve as a harbinger of a global trend reversal in the pair for growth.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/stronger-eurusd-is-a-good-sign-for-markets-20200330/
With the authorities of all countries pushing the monetary easing pedal to the floor, it becomes even more difficult for traders in the currency market to identify trends. The last such example in modern history was in 2008/2009. As a result, we can conclude that currencies will be extremely volatile.
If EURUSD is an equally reliable indicator for the markets this time, then we can expect with some caution the repeal of the situation towards improvement.
Despite EURUSD rollback by 0.6% to 1.1070 from 1.1140, an important signal for traders is last week’s closing EURUSD above the 200-day average. Which often precedes a significant increase in pair purchases in the coming days and may also serve as a harbinger of a global trend reversal in the pair for growth.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/stronger-eurusd-is-a-good-sign-for-markets-20200330/
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Stocks and Indices
Bitcoin’s interrupted recovery
Another sideways trend for Bitcoin ended with a sale. At some point, Bitcoin was falling below $6K, and only a decline below that round level attracted buyers.
Central banks are trying to contain a “virus fire” in the global economy. Still, the process is complicated and lengthy, with many adverse effects just beginning to appear. Retail investors are preparing to tighten their belts for weeks or even months to come. New money supply from the Fed and Co. (other global central banks) is still infinitely far from the real sector, helping at this stage only to stabilize the quotes of some financial assets, but not retail. Whether institutional investors are using the current moment to buy is also a big question, as optimists already have a lot of options, while pessimists are preparing for the bottom ahead.
https://fxpro.news/analysis-and-insight/bitcoins-interrupted-recovery-20200330/
Another sideways trend for Bitcoin ended with a sale. At some point, Bitcoin was falling below $6K, and only a decline below that round level attracted buyers.
Central banks are trying to contain a “virus fire” in the global economy. Still, the process is complicated and lengthy, with many adverse effects just beginning to appear. Retail investors are preparing to tighten their belts for weeks or even months to come. New money supply from the Fed and Co. (other global central banks) is still infinitely far from the real sector, helping at this stage only to stabilize the quotes of some financial assets, but not retail. Whether institutional investors are using the current moment to buy is also a big question, as optimists already have a lot of options, while pessimists are preparing for the bottom ahead.
https://fxpro.news/analysis-and-insight/bitcoins-interrupted-recovery-20200330/
US markets have added 1.4% since the start of trading on Monday, after falling 3.4% on Friday. Markets balance between news of a slowdown in new infections (positive) and the prospect of more extended quarantine (negative).
DXY added after six sessions decline on traditional dollar demand increase at the quarter-end. EURUSD returned to 1.1030. GBPUSD remains at 1.24. The currencies of countries with acceleration in the cases growth rate as the market anticipates the tighter restrictions.
Gold is still having difficulty rising above $ 1,630.
Brent fell below $ 26, WTI at 21.70, losing more than 5% in the spot contracts. The nearest oil futures are at the lowest since 2002. Futures with later valuation dates marks a sharp rebound in prices.
The global tipping point with the spread of coronavirus has not yet arrived, maintaining a shaky foundation under market recovery.
DXY added after six sessions decline on traditional dollar demand increase at the quarter-end. EURUSD returned to 1.1030. GBPUSD remains at 1.24. The currencies of countries with acceleration in the cases growth rate as the market anticipates the tighter restrictions.
Gold is still having difficulty rising above $ 1,630.
Brent fell below $ 26, WTI at 21.70, losing more than 5% in the spot contracts. The nearest oil futures are at the lowest since 2002. Futures with later valuation dates marks a sharp rebound in prices.
The global tipping point with the spread of coronavirus has not yet arrived, maintaining a shaky foundation under market recovery.
#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY reversed from resistance area
Likely to fall to 118.50
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurjpy-wave-analysis-30-march-2019-20200330/
#EURJPY reversed from resistance area
Likely to fall to 118.50
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurjpy-wave-analysis-30-march-2019-20200330/
#WaveAnalysis
#EURGBP broke support area
Likely to fall to 0.8750
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurgbp-wave-analysis-30-march-2019-20200330/
#EURGBP broke support area
Likely to fall to 0.8750
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurgbp-wave-analysis-30-march-2019-20200330/
Over the past day, the number of new infection in the world increased by 62.2K cases against 39.8K a week earlier (59.4K a day earlier). In the US, the number of confirmed cases reached 164.5K as the distribution speed has flattened to near 20K per day. The distribution rate has stabilised in large European countries also. In Italy, there was a daily increase of 4K cases against average levels of 6K per day over the previous ten days. The UK is an exception. There, a day-over-day growth of 2.7K is twice as high as a week earlier. Also, the spread is accelerating in Canada, Iran, a sudden leap in Japan.
The phrase “Chinese miracle” this year finds a new meaning. First it is commendable how quickly the Politburo recognized the danger of the situation in Wuhan and managed to contain its spreading across the country.
Now this phrase relates to how quickly this economy returns from halt. The PMI business activity indices in March came back into growth territory. Published service and manufacturing PMIs reached 52.3 and 52.0 in March against 29.6 and 35.7 in February.
Of course, this does not mean that this will be the case in Europe and the US, where a national quarantine will destroy business activity in both March and April.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/a-new-chinese-miracle-and-too-much-optimism-in-europe-20200331/
Now this phrase relates to how quickly this economy returns from halt. The PMI business activity indices in March came back into growth territory. Published service and manufacturing PMIs reached 52.3 and 52.0 in March against 29.6 and 35.7 in February.
Of course, this does not mean that this will be the case in Europe and the US, where a national quarantine will destroy business activity in both March and April.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/a-new-chinese-miracle-and-too-much-optimism-in-europe-20200331/
Bitcoin grew 5% in the last 24 hours and changing hands for $6,450 at the time of writing. However, so far, the first cryptocurrency has not been able to return to the previous week’s price corridor.
Market participants are watching Telegram’s judicial war with the SEC. However, there is already the collision of principles, and it is more likely that the regulator will win. Telegram is trying to ensure that the injunction does not apply to non-American investors, but even here, the company has little space for manoeuvre. Telegram’s failures may have a rather strong demoralizing effect on the sector as a whole.
Market participants are watching Telegram’s judicial war with the SEC. However, there is already the collision of principles, and it is more likely that the regulator will win. Telegram is trying to ensure that the injunction does not apply to non-American investors, but even here, the company has little space for manoeuvre. Telegram’s failures may have a rather strong demoralizing effect on the sector as a whole.
#WaveAnalysis
#GBPNZD rising inside short-term impulse wave (iii)
Likely to rise to 2.100
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gbpnzd-wave-analysis-31-march-2019-20200331/
#GBPNZD rising inside short-term impulse wave (iii)
Likely to rise to 2.100
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gbpnzd-wave-analysis-31-march-2019-20200331/
#WaveAnalysis
#NZDUSD reversed from resistance area
Likely to fall to 0.6000.
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdusd-wave-analysis-31-march-2019-20200331/
#NZDUSD reversed from resistance area
Likely to fall to 0.6000.
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdusd-wave-analysis-31-march-2019-20200331/
Over the past day, the number of new virus cases in the world increased by 75.1K against 49.6K a week earlier (62.2K a day earlier). Hopes to stabilize the pace of distribution have not been confirmed with a sharp jump in the US. But this may be due to the broader use of virus tests. A sharp rise by 7.7K new cases in France compared to +4.5K a day earlier. Such data somewhat diminished the optimism of market participants, returning the issue of extending quarantine to the agenda and causing a new wave of pressure on the markets at the beginning of the new quarter.
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has shown attempts to reach $6,500, but the bears have pushed the coin back quite confidently to $6,300. In a day, the first coin is falling by almost 2%. Altcoins still do not show any independence.
The crypto market is currently experiencing some stagnation, but many large investors have already entered the market after a recent sale. Coinbase published data which showed that after the record collapse of the crypto market on March 12, there was a jump in purchases of major cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin showed a 6-fold increase in trading activity with 69% buy-ratio, while Ethereum showed a 5-fold increase in trading activity with 67% buy-ratio. Other altcoins showed growth of trading activity in 7 times. Similar processes were likely to take place at other crypto exchanges, and now all these purchased assets will wait for market growth.
The crypto market is currently experiencing some stagnation, but many large investors have already entered the market after a recent sale. Coinbase published data which showed that after the record collapse of the crypto market on March 12, there was a jump in purchases of major cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin showed a 6-fold increase in trading activity with 69% buy-ratio, while Ethereum showed a 5-fold increase in trading activity with 67% buy-ratio. Other altcoins showed growth of trading activity in 7 times. Similar processes were likely to take place at other crypto exchanges, and now all these purchased assets will wait for market growth.