Worst week for stocks since 2008. Opportunity to buy the dip?
Despite the more than 10% drop in the last week, stocks remain expensive by historical standards. And as the practice suggests, after starting to correct from overbought levels, the markets, once accelerated, go below average historical values before returning to growth. Right now, the markets are moving partly under the pressure of triggering stop orders, which may strengthen the downward dynamics. However, investors should keep in mind that it is at the peak of fears that the markets are reversing. The only question is, was this peak yesterday? The most probable answer now looks like “no”.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/worst-week-for-stocks-since-2008-opportunity-to-buy-the-dip-20200228/
Despite the more than 10% drop in the last week, stocks remain expensive by historical standards. And as the practice suggests, after starting to correct from overbought levels, the markets, once accelerated, go below average historical values before returning to growth. Right now, the markets are moving partly under the pressure of triggering stop orders, which may strengthen the downward dynamics. However, investors should keep in mind that it is at the peak of fears that the markets are reversing. The only question is, was this peak yesterday? The most probable answer now looks like “no”.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/worst-week-for-stocks-since-2008-opportunity-to-buy-the-dip-20200228/
#WaveAnalysis
#WTI falling inside sharp impulse wave 3
Likely to rise to 42.50
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wti-wave-analysis-28-february-2019-20200228/
#WTI falling inside sharp impulse wave 3
Likely to rise to 42.50
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/wti-wave-analysis-28-february-2019-20200228/
#WaveAnalysis
#CADJPY broke key support level 81.60
Likely to fall to 80.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/cadjpy-wave-analysis-28-february-2019-20200228/
#CADJPY broke key support level 81.60
Likely to fall to 80.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/cadjpy-wave-analysis-28-february-2019-20200228/
#WaveAnalysis
Given the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic, #USDCHF is likely to rise further
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdchf-wave-analysis-28-february-2019-20200228/
Given the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic, #USDCHF is likely to rise further
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdchf-wave-analysis-28-february-2019-20200228/
Dollar may turn to growth as markets overdid Fed expectations
Earlier last week, we wrote that the dollar declined against the euro and the yen on growing expectations of active policy easing steps from the Fed compared to the ECB or Bank of Japan.
The move away from dollars followed after a sharp drop in the yield of US government bonds, which decreased the difference in their yield with German and Japanese securities. However, the markets, in our opinion, overdid it at the end of last week.
At the moment, futures on the rate indicate a 100% chance of cut by 50 points in March and 80% probability of another cut in April. It look too much.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/dollar-may-turn-to-growth-as-markets-overdid-fed-expectations-20200302/
Earlier last week, we wrote that the dollar declined against the euro and the yen on growing expectations of active policy easing steps from the Fed compared to the ECB or Bank of Japan.
The move away from dollars followed after a sharp drop in the yield of US government bonds, which decreased the difference in their yield with German and Japanese securities. However, the markets, in our opinion, overdid it at the end of last week.
At the moment, futures on the rate indicate a 100% chance of cut by 50 points in March and 80% probability of another cut in April. It look too much.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/dollar-may-turn-to-growth-as-markets-overdid-fed-expectations-20200302/
Which instrument do you see as the most interesting to trade this week?
Final Results
28%
EURUSD
6%
GBPUSD
54%
Gold, Crude Oil
13%
Stocks and Indices
#Bitcoin
The crypto market has gone through a severe and very painful downturn, which may very seriously affect the medium-term prospects of the market. However, the traditional asset market has shown an even more significant decline, and the cryptocurrencies could be sold within a similar pattern together with all other risky assets.
https://fxpro.news/analysis-and-insight/bit-comment-crypto-markets-wait-for-signals-from-the-outside-20200302/
The crypto market has gone through a severe and very painful downturn, which may very seriously affect the medium-term prospects of the market. However, the traditional asset market has shown an even more significant decline, and the cryptocurrencies could be sold within a similar pattern together with all other risky assets.
https://fxpro.news/analysis-and-insight/bit-comment-crypto-markets-wait-for-signals-from-the-outside-20200302/
On the start of the session on Monday, the markets rebounded on the hope of a coordinated response from major central banks and governments. However, the rebound turned out to be unstable: S&P500 futures were losing 0.7% by the close of trading on Friday, returning to the lows of last week.
The dollar continues to decline, having lost more than 2.3% of the peak on February 20, as markets are pawning on aggressive Fed rate cuts, giving a 100% chance of cut rates by 50 points on March 18.
After an almost panic sale on the foreign exchange market on Friday, on Monday commodity-linked ZAR, AUD, NZD were the leaders vs USD. RUB is the lead in decline, breaking out of the general course of trading in the markets.
Gold is trying to stabilize at $1600 after a 5% intraday collapse on Friday.
In Brent, increased volatility persists: opening at $49.3, it jumped to $51.93, but then turned down to $50.30 at the time of writing. Below this level, oil traded last time in mid-2017.
The dollar continues to decline, having lost more than 2.3% of the peak on February 20, as markets are pawning on aggressive Fed rate cuts, giving a 100% chance of cut rates by 50 points on March 18.
After an almost panic sale on the foreign exchange market on Friday, on Monday commodity-linked ZAR, AUD, NZD were the leaders vs USD. RUB is the lead in decline, breaking out of the general course of trading in the markets.
Gold is trying to stabilize at $1600 after a 5% intraday collapse on Friday.
In Brent, increased volatility persists: opening at $49.3, it jumped to $51.93, but then turned down to $50.30 at the time of writing. Below this level, oil traded last time in mid-2017.
#WaveAnalysis
#EURCAD broke resistance zone
Likely to rise to 1.5000
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurcad-wave-analysis-02-march-2019-20200302/
#EURCAD broke resistance zone
Likely to rise to 1.5000
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/eurcad-wave-analysis-02-march-2019-20200302/
#WaveAnalysis
#CADCHF under bearish pressure
Likely to fall to 0.7100
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/cadchf-wave-analysis-02-march-2019-20200302/
#CADCHF under bearish pressure
Likely to fall to 0.7100
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/cadchf-wave-analysis-02-march-2019-20200302/
With weaker than expected Manufacturing PMIs the US reaffirms that its economy is at the forefront of the global macroeconomic cycle. That makes us expect with caution the most influential publication of this week – Friday’s NFP.
Markit's PMI confirmed a slowdown in growth, falling for the third consecutive month.
In contrast, the final Eurozone PMIs not only came out stronger than expected but also confirmed the upward trend from the lows of September-October last year.
However, these data should not be misleading. Business in America has traditionally been the first to respond to changes in the business climate around the world. However, it is also the first to be on the mend at a very rapid pace in contrast to Europe’s long-growing pace.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/eu-data-supported-the-euro-but-unlikely-to-be-for-long-20200303/
Markit's PMI confirmed a slowdown in growth, falling for the third consecutive month.
In contrast, the final Eurozone PMIs not only came out stronger than expected but also confirmed the upward trend from the lows of September-October last year.
However, these data should not be misleading. Business in America has traditionally been the first to respond to changes in the business climate around the world. However, it is also the first to be on the mend at a very rapid pace in contrast to Europe’s long-growing pace.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/eu-data-supported-the-euro-but-unlikely-to-be-for-long-20200303/
Follow the dynamic of traditional financial markets, Bitcoin is trying to bounce back from local lows. In the last 24 hours, the benchmark cryptocurrency has managed to grow to $8,900, but at this level, it has once again faced with sellers’ pressure. As a result, over the last 24 hours, BTC adds 1.5% and trades around $8,800.
What is happening now can be considered “green shoots”, but they are still very vulnerable. The optimists’ margin of strength becomes more and more fragile with each new stage of the sale. Even taking into account the recent growth, Bitcoin fell by almost $800 during the week.
https://fxpro.news/analysis-and-insight/bitcoin-follows-the-market-losing-the-battle-for-digital-gold-20200303/
What is happening now can be considered “green shoots”, but they are still very vulnerable. The optimists’ margin of strength becomes more and more fragile with each new stage of the sale. Even taking into account the recent growth, Bitcoin fell by almost $800 during the week.
https://fxpro.news/analysis-and-insight/bitcoin-follows-the-market-losing-the-battle-for-digital-gold-20200303/
📣Breaking news: Fed cuts rates 50 basis points in emergency move.
• FED SAYS TO CUT TARGET FEDERAL FUNDS RATE BY 50 BASIS POINTS TO RANGE OF 1.00 PCT TO 1.25 PCT
• FED SAYS FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN STRONG BUT CORONAVIRUS POSES EVOLVING RISKS TO ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
• FED SAYS FOMC IS CLOSELY MONITORING DEVELOPMENTS AND WILL USE ITS TOOLS AND 'ACT AS APPROPRIATE TO SUPPORT THE ECONOMY'
• FED SAYS VOTE TO LOWER FED FUNDS RATE WAS UNANIMOUS
• FED SAYS TO CUT TARGET FEDERAL FUNDS RATE BY 50 BASIS POINTS TO RANGE OF 1.00 PCT TO 1.25 PCT
• FED SAYS FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN STRONG BUT CORONAVIRUS POSES EVOLVING RISKS TO ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
• FED SAYS FOMC IS CLOSELY MONITORING DEVELOPMENTS AND WILL USE ITS TOOLS AND 'ACT AS APPROPRIATE TO SUPPORT THE ECONOMY'
• FED SAYS VOTE TO LOWER FED FUNDS RATE WAS UNANIMOUS
#WaveAnalysis
Coca-Cola (#KO) rising inside impulse wave 1
Likely to rise to 391.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/coca-cola-wave-analysis-03-march-2019-20200303/
Coca-Cola (#KO) rising inside impulse wave 1
Likely to rise to 391.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/coca-cola-wave-analysis-03-march-2019-20200303/
#WaveAnalysis
#NZDUSD reversed from support zone
Likely to rise to 0.6330
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdusd-wave-analysis-03-march-2019-20200303/
#NZDUSD reversed from support zone
Likely to rise to 0.6330
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdusd-wave-analysis-03-march-2019-20200303/
Weekly poll results
At the start of the week, the majority of respondents at our various sites preferred commodities (42%). Excessive volatility in Oil and Gold leaves no other chances to seize leadership for attention. EURUSD is in second place and even more exciting than a week earlier (31%). Equity markets (16%) also became more interesting for our subscribers after last week's abnormal volatility. GBPUSD is outsider once again. We exclude GBPUSD from the next week's survey and separately poll for Gold and oil.
At the start of the week, the majority of respondents at our various sites preferred commodities (42%). Excessive volatility in Oil and Gold leaves no other chances to seize leadership for attention. EURUSD is in second place and even more exciting than a week earlier (31%). Equity markets (16%) also became more interesting for our subscribers after last week's abnormal volatility. GBPUSD is outsider once again. We exclude GBPUSD from the next week's survey and separately poll for Gold and oil.
Over the last 24 hours, #Bitcoin shows virtually zero dynamics and trades around $8,800. During the week, the benchmark cryptocurrency fluctuates somewhat near the current levels. Usually, sideways trends turn out to be a bad sign for the crypto market, where the rule "what doesn't grow, dies" worked well recently. In this case, a lot may depend on the situation in the traditional financial market.
The easing of the epidemic and the growing demand for risk assets may well contribute to strengthening purchases of Bitcoin, which will pull up the rest of the crypto market. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has grown by several points over the last 24 hours, indicating a slight relief. The RSI index on the daily chart is in a neutral position. All market participants are waiting for new triggers, and now Bitcoin is highly dependent on the development of the situation in traditional risk markets.
The easing of the epidemic and the growing demand for risk assets may well contribute to strengthening purchases of Bitcoin, which will pull up the rest of the crypto market. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has grown by several points over the last 24 hours, indicating a slight relief. The RSI index on the daily chart is in a neutral position. All market participants are waiting for new triggers, and now Bitcoin is highly dependent on the development of the situation in traditional risk markets.
The emergency interest rates cut from the Fed did not have a lasting impact on markets. The markets show that they demanded much more.
A softer monetary policy is a way to revive business activity. However, it will take months before this “cure” fully takes effect.
There is another, more conspiracy reasoning. The Fed’s active steps were a concession to the US government, namely Trump, who openly calls for further rate cuts. The Fed had the opportunity to concede in this regard, as the dollar was at 3-year highs less than two weeks ago, entering an area where it hasn’t stayed long for the last 18 years.
If other major central banks do not repeat or exceed the Fed’s actions in the coming days, the US currency risks facing prolonged pressure.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/fed-cuts-hit-the-dollar-but-stocks-continue-bearish-trend-20200304/
A softer monetary policy is a way to revive business activity. However, it will take months before this “cure” fully takes effect.
There is another, more conspiracy reasoning. The Fed’s active steps were a concession to the US government, namely Trump, who openly calls for further rate cuts. The Fed had the opportunity to concede in this regard, as the dollar was at 3-year highs less than two weeks ago, entering an area where it hasn’t stayed long for the last 18 years.
If other major central banks do not repeat or exceed the Fed’s actions in the coming days, the US currency risks facing prolonged pressure.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/fed-cuts-hit-the-dollar-but-stocks-continue-bearish-trend-20200304/
Market volatility declined after sharp jumps in both directions over the previous two weeks. Fed rate cuts and market guesses that more to come from other Central Banks, feed cautious demand for risky assets, supporting stock indices: futures for S&P500 + 2.0%, FTSE100 + 1.5%, Dax + 1.4%.
The dollar returned to growth, as expectations swayed to easing from other Central Banks after the Fed.
The leaders in the growth to USD are the commodities ZAR, AUD, RUB. JPY, EUR, CHF lose on restoring risk appetite.
Gold stabilized near $1640, after a 4% jump on Tuesday.
Brent is trading at $ 52.8, receiving buyers support on dips to $51.00 for the second day. Quotes froze in anticipation of signals from the OPEC+ meeting in the coming days and the publication of US inventories data.
The dollar returned to growth, as expectations swayed to easing from other Central Banks after the Fed.
The leaders in the growth to USD are the commodities ZAR, AUD, RUB. JPY, EUR, CHF lose on restoring risk appetite.
Gold stabilized near $1640, after a 4% jump on Tuesday.
Brent is trading at $ 52.8, receiving buyers support on dips to $51.00 for the second day. Quotes froze in anticipation of signals from the OPEC+ meeting in the coming days and the publication of US inventories data.
Bank of Canada lowers overnight rate target to 1 ¼ percent
The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to 1 ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 ½ percent and the deposit rate is 1 percent.
While Canada’s economy has been operating close to potential with inflation on target, the COVID-19 virus is a material negative shock to the Canadian and global outlooks, and monetary and fiscal authorities are responding.
The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to 1 ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 ½ percent and the deposit rate is 1 percent.
While Canada’s economy has been operating close to potential with inflation on target, the COVID-19 virus is a material negative shock to the Canadian and global outlooks, and monetary and fiscal authorities are responding.