The spreading China coronavirus take tall on the markets. On Monday morning, Brent Crude Oil has updated October lows on fears of falling demand due to the economic slowdown. There is an increased demand for protective assets (US, Japan government bonds), as well as safe-heaven currencies (dollar, yen).
Crude Oil as the weakest link in China virus story chain
The coronavirus news made investors take a critical look at the assets after the rally of previous months. Crude Oil showed weakness not only because of the virus. Over the last week, Brent price declined by more than $6.5 or 10%.
It was indicative of how quickly it returned to decline at the beginning of the month after the ease of tension between Iran and the US. As is often the case in markets, strong movements are rarely caused by just one reason.
There is increased worries on China and India slowdown above on increased supply and Crude Oil stocks. They are the second and third world economies, respectively.
Lower growth forecasts in China and India are much more worrying for the global energy market than, say, the slowing down of the US and Europe.
This logic makes us think that oil quotations are still in the search mode of the bottom. We cannot rule out that it will be found at levels markedly below $50 per barrel of Brent.
The coronavirus news made investors take a critical look at the assets after the rally of previous months. Crude Oil showed weakness not only because of the virus. Over the last week, Brent price declined by more than $6.5 or 10%.
It was indicative of how quickly it returned to decline at the beginning of the month after the ease of tension between Iran and the US. As is often the case in markets, strong movements are rarely caused by just one reason.
There is increased worries on China and India slowdown above on increased supply and Crude Oil stocks. They are the second and third world economies, respectively.
Lower growth forecasts in China and India are much more worrying for the global energy market than, say, the slowing down of the US and Europe.
This logic makes us think that oil quotations are still in the search mode of the bottom. We cannot rule out that it will be found at levels markedly below $50 per barrel of Brent.
Bitcoin: not gold yet, but glitters now
Bitcoin added more than 3% on Monday morning and changes hands for $8,600.
Given that Bitcoin is often referred to as protective assets like gold in the crypto community, a shift from war threats to fears of an epidemic may play a role. Still, more often than not, positive or negative dynamics are now linked to more obvious reasons, such as increased trading volumes in futures and the triggering of trading bot orders.
Bitcoin added more than 3% on Monday morning and changes hands for $8,600.
Given that Bitcoin is often referred to as protective assets like gold in the crypto community, a shift from war threats to fears of an epidemic may play a role. Still, more often than not, positive or negative dynamics are now linked to more obvious reasons, such as increased trading volumes in futures and the triggering of trading bot orders.
Bitcoin spiked above $9,100 on Tuesday morning, where it bumped into a sale-off again. It threw the benchmark cryptocurrency to the round level $9,000. Note that the growth was accompanied by an increase in trading volumes, which should become another factor supporting the growth.
The most common explanation for the growth is due to the Chinese virus, the decline of yuan against the dollar and the strengthening of gold, followed by Bitcoin.
However, there are explanations related to technical indicators. We are talking about a set of exponential moving averages Guppy and a tool for identifying historically high or low prices of the mined bitcoins Puell Multiple. Last time we saw similar their signals just before the rally to $14K.
The most common explanation for the growth is due to the Chinese virus, the decline of yuan against the dollar and the strengthening of gold, followed by Bitcoin.
However, there are explanations related to technical indicators. We are talking about a set of exponential moving averages Guppy and a tool for identifying historically high or low prices of the mined bitcoins Puell Multiple. Last time we saw similar their signals just before the rally to $14K.
Asian markets continued their decline on Tuesday due to spreading fears of a virus impact on the economy. Meantime, European and American indices were stabilizing after the drop yesterday. The foreign exchange market also shows a mixed reaction: currencies that are far from Asia feel better, also adding to USD. Gold retreated below the $ 1580 level.
Some markets stabilised on hopes of help from governments and central banks
While the news of coronavirus spreading remains quite alarming, on Tuesday markets are either showing some risk demand or just moving in flat, avoiding further decline. It seems that participants are deciding to cautiously “buy the dip”.
Traders should understand that the markets may turn down rather quickly if the intensity of negative news increases again. In the meantime, market participants seem to be reacting to the fact that the number of deaths has stopped growing exponentially, and there is still no news of deaths outside of China.
Besides, fears of the economic impact of the virus are somewhat held back by the fact that many authorities are openly announcing these risks. This is a signal to market players that central banks or governments are ready to provide economic incentives to avoid economic shocks.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/some-markets-stabilised-on-hopes-of-help-from-governments-and-central-banks-2020
While the news of coronavirus spreading remains quite alarming, on Tuesday markets are either showing some risk demand or just moving in flat, avoiding further decline. It seems that participants are deciding to cautiously “buy the dip”.
Traders should understand that the markets may turn down rather quickly if the intensity of negative news increases again. In the meantime, market participants seem to be reacting to the fact that the number of deaths has stopped growing exponentially, and there is still no news of deaths outside of China.
Besides, fears of the economic impact of the virus are somewhat held back by the fact that many authorities are openly announcing these risks. This is a signal to market players that central banks or governments are ready to provide economic incentives to avoid economic shocks.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/some-markets-stabilised-on-hopes-of-help-from-governments-and-central-banks-2020
Death toll from a virus in China reached 106, but some markets (Nikkei225, DJI, Euro50) paused their decline. 👉🏻How do you think, is the worst for markets over?
Final Results
54%
Yes
46%
No
After the battle for threshold $9K, the Bitcoin bulls still took the initiative, and on Wednesday morning the benchmark cryptocurrency traded around $9,400, adding 3.5% over the last 24 hours. This price dynamics takes place along with a stable high trading volumes. The bears have retreated, giving the $9,000 mark to the bulls. The Bitcoin dominance index has stopped falling and has been around 66% for some time.
Altcoins are attracting higher demand compared to recent months, but Bitcoin is still in the spotlight of investors. The growth may be driven by the same factors, including the pandemic and institutional investors' interest in the first cryptocurrency. The Bitcoin Greed and Fear Index moved to "greed" territory at 57. Analysts agree that optimism should be moderate, as Bitcoin will have to prove that it can hold on above $9K before it gets a new impetus from the demand.
Altcoins are attracting higher demand compared to recent months, but Bitcoin is still in the spotlight of investors. The growth may be driven by the same factors, including the pandemic and institutional investors' interest in the first cryptocurrency. The Bitcoin Greed and Fear Index moved to "greed" territory at 57. Analysts agree that optimism should be moderate, as Bitcoin will have to prove that it can hold on above $9K before it gets a new impetus from the demand.
US macro data and earnings return optimism to markets. Now it is Fed's turn
Markets continue to carefully buy stocks that have slipped through the fears of coronavirus spreading from China. Robust data from the US helped to change the sentiment of market participants, from positive company reports to macroeconomic indicators exceeding expectations.
Much of the improvement in macroeconomic indicators owes to the Fed’s policy easing, that’s why this makes sense to listen to the Fed’s remarks later today even more cautiously. The US central bank figuratively filled the bowl with punch, extending the party in the markets. And if one looks at the continuing liquidity injections in the repo market and the balance growth, he or she can say that the bowl continues to be regularly replenished.
The Fed has the power to remove this punch bowl, and then markets may face a repeat of the 4Q18 sale-off when expectations of tightening policy led to a 20% correction of the major U.S. stock indices.
Markets continue to carefully buy stocks that have slipped through the fears of coronavirus spreading from China. Robust data from the US helped to change the sentiment of market participants, from positive company reports to macroeconomic indicators exceeding expectations.
Much of the improvement in macroeconomic indicators owes to the Fed’s policy easing, that’s why this makes sense to listen to the Fed’s remarks later today even more cautiously. The US central bank figuratively filled the bowl with punch, extending the party in the markets. And if one looks at the continuing liquidity injections in the repo market and the balance growth, he or she can say that the bowl continues to be regularly replenished.
The Fed has the power to remove this punch bowl, and then markets may face a repeat of the 4Q18 sale-off when expectations of tightening policy led to a 20% correction of the major U.S. stock indices.
EURUSD has settled near 1.10 now. In your opinion, where will the pair go after the Fed comments today at 19.00 GMT?
Anonymous Poll
66%
Up
34%
Down
Markets shrug off fears of the spread of coronavirus. Influence on markets is becoming more selective (at the level of companies and sectors, rather than the overall risk-off).
Now focus of market participants turns to monetary policy and possible changes in the tone of the Fed's comments later this evening. Against this background, the #USD is experiencing some traction to the detriment of so-called yielding currencies.
Yesterday after market close #Apple and several other companies issued robust earnings reports, which supported the demand for risks. Later Today, AT&T, #Boeing, #McDonalds, #MasterCard report before the US market open. After its close, #Microsoft, #Facebook, #Tesla and many more will present their quarterly results.
Now focus of market participants turns to monetary policy and possible changes in the tone of the Fed's comments later this evening. Against this background, the #USD is experiencing some traction to the detriment of so-called yielding currencies.
Yesterday after market close #Apple and several other companies issued robust earnings reports, which supported the demand for risks. Later Today, AT&T, #Boeing, #McDonalds, #MasterCard report before the US market open. After its close, #Microsoft, #Facebook, #Tesla and many more will present their quarterly results.
#WaveAnalysis
#NZDUSD broke support area
Likely to fall to 0.6450
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdusd-wave-analysis-29-january-2019-20200129/
#NZDUSD broke support area
Likely to fall to 0.6450
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdusd-wave-analysis-29-january-2019-20200129/
#WaveAnalysis
#Copper falling inside impulse waves 3 and (3)
Likely to fall to 252.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/copper-wave-analysis-29-january-2019-20200129/
#Copper falling inside impulse waves 3 and (3)
Likely to fall to 252.00
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/copper-wave-analysis-29-january-2019-20200129/
Altcoin season or end of the game?
During January, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency increased by $58 billion, or almost 30%.
Bitcoin (BTC) showed a 25% growth or $1,900 for the month
Ethereum (ETH) grew by almost 30% or $40
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) added 79% or $170
Litecoin (LTC) rose 36% or $16
Ethereum Classic (ETC) took off at 140% or $7
Anonymous coins DASH and ZCash (ZEC) rose by 179% (+$78) and 124% (+$36), respectively.
We can draw some conclusions from the most altcoins melting down a month ago.
First, the principle of buying assets, when there is no hope in the market – fully justified and continues to work.
Second, the crypto market continues to live, sometimes refuting even the most stringent logical schemes.
Third, judging by the massive promotion in the crypto media of the idea of returning the altcoin season and returning faith in the prospects of the cryptomarket, the big players who bought back the “bottom” are now preparing to sell their assets to the public.
During January, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency increased by $58 billion, or almost 30%.
Bitcoin (BTC) showed a 25% growth or $1,900 for the month
Ethereum (ETH) grew by almost 30% or $40
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) added 79% or $170
Litecoin (LTC) rose 36% or $16
Ethereum Classic (ETC) took off at 140% or $7
Anonymous coins DASH and ZCash (ZEC) rose by 179% (+$78) and 124% (+$36), respectively.
We can draw some conclusions from the most altcoins melting down a month ago.
First, the principle of buying assets, when there is no hope in the market – fully justified and continues to work.
Second, the crypto market continues to live, sometimes refuting even the most stringent logical schemes.
Third, judging by the massive promotion in the crypto media of the idea of returning the altcoin season and returning faith in the prospects of the cryptomarket, the big players who bought back the “bottom” are now preparing to sell their assets to the public.
The virus adds pressure on commodities and Asian markets
Fears of coronavirus proliferation have hit Asian markets with renewed vigour. Japan’s Nikkei225 lost 2% in the morning, while other Asian markets also faced a severe decline, updating their multi-week lows.
EURJPY declined under 120, lows since late November. The technical analysis also moved to the bearish side, as the pair settled under the 200 SMA. Recent decline confirmed the downward trend, initially formed at the beginning of the trade disputes in 2018.
AUDUSD, which is declining almost daily, losing more than 4% this month. The pair returned to the lows area of August last year near 0.6700, where it had previously been at the peak of fears about the consequences of trade wars.
Brent oil on fears of declining consumption in China has returned to decrease and is testing the area of lows since August below $58 per barrel. And the story of the fall seems far from over for Brent...
Fears of coronavirus proliferation have hit Asian markets with renewed vigour. Japan’s Nikkei225 lost 2% in the morning, while other Asian markets also faced a severe decline, updating their multi-week lows.
EURJPY declined under 120, lows since late November. The technical analysis also moved to the bearish side, as the pair settled under the 200 SMA. Recent decline confirmed the downward trend, initially formed at the beginning of the trade disputes in 2018.
AUDUSD, which is declining almost daily, losing more than 4% this month. The pair returned to the lows area of August last year near 0.6700, where it had previously been at the peak of fears about the consequences of trade wars.
Brent oil on fears of declining consumption in China has returned to decrease and is testing the area of lows since August below $58 per barrel. And the story of the fall seems far from over for Brent...
Healthy data vs virus fears
An essential change in the markets is the fact that healthy data attracts purchases to risk assets. Asian indexes are trying to find a ground on healthy China Non-Manufacturing PMI. Mostly unsuccessful for now, yet.
Data from Japan mostly exceeded expectations, supporting speculation that the lowest point of economic growth is behind us.
A sure victory of optimists so far can only be seen in keeping USDCNH below 7.0. The pair faced sale-off after the jump above. The same we can say about Crude Oil and US. They start the day in a small decline but show an increase over the last 24 hours.
An essential change in the markets is the fact that healthy data attracts purchases to risk assets. Asian indexes are trying to find a ground on healthy China Non-Manufacturing PMI. Mostly unsuccessful for now, yet.
Data from Japan mostly exceeded expectations, supporting speculation that the lowest point of economic growth is behind us.
A sure victory of optimists so far can only be seen in keeping USDCNH below 7.0. The pair faced sale-off after the jump above. The same we can say about Crude Oil and US. They start the day in a small decline but show an increase over the last 24 hours.
#Bitcoin attempted night assault of a $9,500 but the bull's attack was bogged down. By Friday morning, the benchmark cryptocurrency is dropping closer and closer to the lower boundary of $9,300. The major altcoins show a mixed price dynamics. While Litecoin (LTC) is still growing by more than 11% over the last 24h, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has already moved into the red zone. RSI on the daily chart decreased from the overbought territory. Yesterday the similar dynamics ended with a reversal back upwards. However, today the situation may turn out to be different after an unsuccessful attempt to hit a resistance. The greed and fear index is still in the "greed" zone. Bitcoin likely needs more time for consolidation to give investors confidence in the strength of new levels.
There is a tug of war on the financial markets between fears of the spread of coronavirus and robust macro and earnings data. Most markets are down a bit, but US indices are above levels 24 hours ago, while Hang Seng continues to look for the bottom. EURUSD gained support after the downtrend under 1.10. At the same time, 81% of our traders trading a pair are in Buy. Today is Brexit's day, but not much will change for Britain after a formal exit. A couple of weeks ago, GBPUSD briefly became the most popular instrument for FxPro traders, but soon regained the leadership of EURUSD, and now it has passed Gold ahead.
#WaveAnalysis
#AUDCHF broke key support level 0.6515
Likely to fall to 0.6450
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audchf-wave-analysis-31-january-2019-20200131/
#AUDCHF broke key support level 0.6515
Likely to fall to 0.6450
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audchf-wave-analysis-31-january-2019-20200131/
#WaveAnalysis
AT&T (#T) reversed from support area
Likely to rise to 37.80
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/att-wave-analysis-31-january-2019-20200131/
AT&T (#T) reversed from support area
Likely to rise to 37.80
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/att-wave-analysis-31-january-2019-20200131/