This week is promising to be a big one for Crude Oil with OPEC+ and S.Aramco IPO taking place. Do you think its price will go...
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57%
down
43%
up
Trade wars and weaker USD went to the agenda
Trump recalled once again that trade wars are far from over. Over the past 24 hours, the battlefront expands dramatically. S&P500 dropped 0.8% on Monday, to 11-day lows; EuroStoxx 50 collapsed more than 2% after updated 4.5-year highs earlier. Markets negatively reacted to the introduction of tariffs.
Bad news not stops here, as closely monitored Manufacturing ISM index decreased instead of the expected growth. This news came at the wrong time, as it crossed out the extensive speculation that the economy has passed the lowest point, reacting to monetary stimulus.
The dollar reacted extremely nervously to new calls for the Fed to devalue the dollar and remained under pressure after the publication of weak production data. As a result, the dollar index declined by 0.5%, which can be considered a big move after a long lull.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/trade-wars-and-weaker-usd-is-on-the-agenda-again-20191203/
Trump recalled once again that trade wars are far from over. Over the past 24 hours, the battlefront expands dramatically. S&P500 dropped 0.8% on Monday, to 11-day lows; EuroStoxx 50 collapsed more than 2% after updated 4.5-year highs earlier. Markets negatively reacted to the introduction of tariffs.
Bad news not stops here, as closely monitored Manufacturing ISM index decreased instead of the expected growth. This news came at the wrong time, as it crossed out the extensive speculation that the economy has passed the lowest point, reacting to monetary stimulus.
The dollar reacted extremely nervously to new calls for the Fed to devalue the dollar and remained under pressure after the publication of weak production data. As a result, the dollar index declined by 0.5%, which can be considered a big move after a long lull.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/trade-wars-and-weaker-usd-is-on-the-agenda-again-20191203/
FX: The decline in the dollar accelerated after a new round of pressure on the Fed by Trump and weak US production data. DXY for the day fell by 0.5% to 97.7. EURUSD on Monday received a healthy boost to growth after touching 1.1000, trading at 1.1080 now. GBPUSD has returned to the 7-month highs area to 1.2980. AUDUSD gained 1.4% so far this week as metal tariffs for Argentina and Brazil are on hand for Australian mining companies.
Stocks: Futures for S&P500 are slightly up after the index fell 0.9% on Monday. A slight rebound after decline also observed in EuroStoxx 50 (+ 0.25%) after the 2.2% collapse. MSCI World lost 0.9% over last 24h. The VIX volatility index jumped from 12.9 to 14.63.
Commodities: Brent stabilized near $ 61.00, failing to develop growth. Gold rose to $ 1,466 following rising market volatility.
Crypto: Bitcoin traded near $7200 on Tuesday morning, returned to decline after an unsuccessful growth attempt. The top-10 altcoins range from -3.4% (BSV) to -1.0% (XRP).
Stocks: Futures for S&P500 are slightly up after the index fell 0.9% on Monday. A slight rebound after decline also observed in EuroStoxx 50 (+ 0.25%) after the 2.2% collapse. MSCI World lost 0.9% over last 24h. The VIX volatility index jumped from 12.9 to 14.63.
Commodities: Brent stabilized near $ 61.00, failing to develop growth. Gold rose to $ 1,466 following rising market volatility.
Crypto: Bitcoin traded near $7200 on Tuesday morning, returned to decline after an unsuccessful growth attempt. The top-10 altcoins range from -3.4% (BSV) to -1.0% (XRP).
How will halving affect the Bitcoin price?
The end of the year for Bitcoin isn’t at all the way crypto enthusiasts expected it to be. Although the benchmark cryptocurrency is almost 90% higher than it was a year ago, market participants do not want to believe that this is the highest point of the growth that halving can provide.
https://fxpro.news/analysis-and-insight/how-will-halving-affect-the-bitcoin-price-20191203/
The end of the year for Bitcoin isn’t at all the way crypto enthusiasts expected it to be. Although the benchmark cryptocurrency is almost 90% higher than it was a year ago, market participants do not want to believe that this is the highest point of the growth that halving can provide.
https://fxpro.news/analysis-and-insight/how-will-halving-affect-the-bitcoin-price-20191203/
Trump pressed the markets. Day 2
US President Trump's new announcement boosted market sales in addition to the recent introduction of tariffs on imports from Brazil and Argentina.
Today Trump suddenly stated that he did not have a deadline for a trade deal with China, and that it might be better to wait until the 2020 election results before concluding a trade deal.
The markets read behind the lines that the trade deal is far from done, and the arguments put forward are nothing more than an attempt to save the President's face.
Markets reaction to this news was typical. Growth of CHF, JPY has intensified as both currencies add more than 1% to USD this week. The Chinese yuan got hit, dropped to 7.06 per dollar, the lowest level in 5 weeks.
Outside of the "safe-haven", the dollar is experiencing an upward move, since it is more suitable for defining a 'safe' than the emerging currencies or euro, which are severely affected by the slowdown in world trade in general and China in particular.
US President Trump's new announcement boosted market sales in addition to the recent introduction of tariffs on imports from Brazil and Argentina.
Today Trump suddenly stated that he did not have a deadline for a trade deal with China, and that it might be better to wait until the 2020 election results before concluding a trade deal.
The markets read behind the lines that the trade deal is far from done, and the arguments put forward are nothing more than an attempt to save the President's face.
Markets reaction to this news was typical. Growth of CHF, JPY has intensified as both currencies add more than 1% to USD this week. The Chinese yuan got hit, dropped to 7.06 per dollar, the lowest level in 5 weeks.
Outside of the "safe-haven", the dollar is experiencing an upward move, since it is more suitable for defining a 'safe' than the emerging currencies or euro, which are severely affected by the slowdown in world trade in general and China in particular.
Insurance back in vogue as volatility returns
Volatility returns to the financial markets. In the previous two days, investors had to return to the expectation that trade wars may widen and deepen in the coming months. Hopes for a soon-to-be-signed phase one trade deal began to melt after Trump’s words that it might have been better to make a deal with China after the 2020 elections. Later, the Ministry of Commerce also made it clear that the priority was the essence of the agreement, not the speed of its conclusion. Isn’t this an eternal trade war?
This news caused a typical market reaction. Indices of implied volatility jumped, key stock indices turned down, so-called safe currencies and gold enjoyed increasing demand. Now more details and where it can lead.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/insurance-back-in-vogue-as-volatility-returns-20191204/
Volatility returns to the financial markets. In the previous two days, investors had to return to the expectation that trade wars may widen and deepen in the coming months. Hopes for a soon-to-be-signed phase one trade deal began to melt after Trump’s words that it might have been better to make a deal with China after the 2020 elections. Later, the Ministry of Commerce also made it clear that the priority was the essence of the agreement, not the speed of its conclusion. Isn’t this an eternal trade war?
This news caused a typical market reaction. Indices of implied volatility jumped, key stock indices turned down, so-called safe currencies and gold enjoyed increasing demand. Now more details and where it can lead.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/insurance-back-in-vogue-as-volatility-returns-20191204/
Bit-comment: Resumed decline
Bitcoin has lost almost 2% in the last 24 hours and trades near $7,150. The inability to develop a confident rebound for the BTC practically always ended in a decline. The altcoin market demonstrates the same dynamics.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/bit-comment-resumed-decline-20191204/
Bitcoin has lost almost 2% in the last 24 hours and trades near $7,150. The inability to develop a confident rebound for the BTC practically always ended in a decline. The altcoin market demonstrates the same dynamics.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/bit-comment-resumed-decline-20191204/
#WaveAnalysis
#Bank of America is expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 33.65
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/bank-of-america-wave-analysis-04-december-2019-20191204/
#Bank of America is expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 33.65
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/bank-of-america-wave-analysis-04-december-2019-20191204/
#WaveAnalysis
#GBPCAD is expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1,7500.
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gbpcad-wave-analysis-04-december-2019-20191204/
#GBPCAD is expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1,7500.
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gbpcad-wave-analysis-04-december-2019-20191204/
Important upcoming events (GMT):
07:00 EUR 🇩🇪 [!!] Ge Factory Orders
13:30 USD 🇺🇸 [!!] US Trade Balance
13:30 USD 🇺🇸 [!!!] US Initial Unemployment Claims
Detailed economic calendar
07:00 EUR 🇩🇪 [!!] Ge Factory Orders
13:30 USD 🇺🇸 [!!] US Trade Balance
13:30 USD 🇺🇸 [!!!] US Initial Unemployment Claims
Detailed economic calendar
GBP broke through important levels. What’s next?
On Wednesday, the pressure in the financial markets has slightly decreased after Bloomberg reports that China and the U.S. are edged closer to their positions on trade and can avoid a new wave of escalation. The message is not very trustworthy, as it cites unnamed sources.
Most importantly, this news has allowed market participants to distract themselves from the theme of eternal trade wars, which has benefited the British currency. GBPUSD jumped to $1.31 on Wednesday, its highest level since May, while EURGBP declined to 0.8450, its lowest point since May 2017.
In the course of yesterday’s breakthrough, the British pound came out of the traded ranges both against the dollar and the euro, which opens up the way for further growth in the coming days on the triggering of stop-orders.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/gbp-broke-through-important-levels-whats-next-20191205/
On Wednesday, the pressure in the financial markets has slightly decreased after Bloomberg reports that China and the U.S. are edged closer to their positions on trade and can avoid a new wave of escalation. The message is not very trustworthy, as it cites unnamed sources.
Most importantly, this news has allowed market participants to distract themselves from the theme of eternal trade wars, which has benefited the British currency. GBPUSD jumped to $1.31 on Wednesday, its highest level since May, while EURGBP declined to 0.8450, its lowest point since May 2017.
In the course of yesterday’s breakthrough, the British pound came out of the traded ranges both against the dollar and the euro, which opens up the way for further growth in the coming days on the triggering of stop-orders.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/gbp-broke-through-important-levels-whats-next-20191205/
Forex: The dollar index is down for the fifth trading session, DXY sank to 97.5, the monthly lows, touched the 200-day average on Wednesday. EURUSD near 1.1090, changing slightly before the release of major employment US data on Friday. GBPUSD touched 1.3047 earlier this morning, the highest since May.
Stocks: Futures for S&P500 add 0.7%, reaching 3123. EuroStoxx 50 index adds 2% a little more than a day, while MSCI World increased 0.8%. The VIX index fell from 15.07 to 14.40.
Commodities: Brent is trying to break above $63.00 in anticipation of news from the OPEC meeting. Gold hardly changed during the day, remaining at $ 1,475.
Crypto: Bitcoin is at $ 7,350, making growth attempts. The top-10 altcoins range from -2.8% (BSV) to + 2.3% (BCH).
Stocks: Futures for S&P500 add 0.7%, reaching 3123. EuroStoxx 50 index adds 2% a little more than a day, while MSCI World increased 0.8%. The VIX index fell from 15.07 to 14.40.
Commodities: Brent is trying to break above $63.00 in anticipation of news from the OPEC meeting. Gold hardly changed during the day, remaining at $ 1,475.
Crypto: Bitcoin is at $ 7,350, making growth attempts. The top-10 altcoins range from -2.8% (BSV) to + 2.3% (BCH).
#WaveAnalysis
#Intel is expected to fall further toward the next support level 55.45
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/intel-wave-analysis-05-december-2019-20191205/
#Intel is expected to fall further toward the next support level 55.45
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/intel-wave-analysis-05-december-2019-20191205/
#WaveAnalysis
#CADCHF is expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.7530
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/cadchf-wave-analysis-05-december-2019-20191205/
#CADCHF is expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.7530
https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/cadchf-wave-analysis-05-december-2019-20191205/
Important upcoming events (GMT):
07:00 EUR 🇩🇪 [!!] Ge Industrial Production
13:30 CAD 🇨🇦 [!!!] Ca Employment report
13:30 USD 🇺🇸 [!!!] US Employment report
15:00 USD 🇺🇸 [!!] US Consumer Sentiment
Detailed economic calendar
07:00 EUR 🇩🇪 [!!] Ge Industrial Production
13:30 CAD 🇨🇦 [!!!] Ca Employment report
13:30 USD 🇺🇸 [!!!] US Employment report
15:00 USD 🇺🇸 [!!] US Consumer Sentiment
Detailed economic calendar
Weak NFP data is the problem for USD or for the rest of the world?
Today is the day of the release of the US employment data – an influential macroeconomic report that traditionally causes the maximum volatility of markets among all the world’s data publications. In recent months, markets have been shifting their focus from employment data to attempts to determine the impact of US and Chinese trade conflict.
Previous lull on employment report does not mean that the markets have lost interest in the NFP. Just the opposite. It may well turn out that the current release will attract more attention, if it sparks speculation around the further path of the economy and, as a consequence, monetary policy.
On average, the markets predicted an increase in employment by 180K. If the figure is closer to the levels indicated by ADP, it may be a severe disappointment for the optimists.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/weak-data-is-the-problem-for-usd-or-for-the-rest-of-the-world-20191206/
Today is the day of the release of the US employment data – an influential macroeconomic report that traditionally causes the maximum volatility of markets among all the world’s data publications. In recent months, markets have been shifting their focus from employment data to attempts to determine the impact of US and Chinese trade conflict.
Previous lull on employment report does not mean that the markets have lost interest in the NFP. Just the opposite. It may well turn out that the current release will attract more attention, if it sparks speculation around the further path of the economy and, as a consequence, monetary policy.
On average, the markets predicted an increase in employment by 180K. If the figure is closer to the levels indicated by ADP, it may be a severe disappointment for the optimists.
https://fxpro.news/daily-forex-outlook/weak-data-is-the-problem-for-usd-or-for-the-rest-of-the-world-20191206/
The US employment report rolled out noticeably better than expected, helping markets to discard concerns about slowdowns amid prolonged trade wars.
The number of new jobs increased by 266K in November, the highest rate in 13 months. The number of payrolls in the manufacturing sector jumped by 54K over the last month after a 43K decline previously due to strikes at GM factories.
The unemployment rate returned to more than 50-year lows at 3.5%, where it was in September.
For almost all key parameters, this was a positive report, so the market reaction in the first minutes looks very classic.
The dollar index climbed 0.3%, getting support at the 200-day average. EURUSD retreated below 1.11000 levels, while GBPUSD turned lower from 1.3150. In the stock markets, futures for S&P500 experienced an increase in growth momentum, added 0.5% after the publication of the data and reaching Monday levels.
Healthy labour market data may cement expectations that the Fed will not cut rates soon.
However, if you look beyond the limits of short-term fluctuations, it is crucial to understand that improvements in Europe and Asia often follow robust data from the US. If this will be so, other central banks can also take a more robust monetary position as Fed did, which will undermine the value of USD to other currencies.
The number of new jobs increased by 266K in November, the highest rate in 13 months. The number of payrolls in the manufacturing sector jumped by 54K over the last month after a 43K decline previously due to strikes at GM factories.
The unemployment rate returned to more than 50-year lows at 3.5%, where it was in September.
For almost all key parameters, this was a positive report, so the market reaction in the first minutes looks very classic.
The dollar index climbed 0.3%, getting support at the 200-day average. EURUSD retreated below 1.11000 levels, while GBPUSD turned lower from 1.3150. In the stock markets, futures for S&P500 experienced an increase in growth momentum, added 0.5% after the publication of the data and reaching Monday levels.
Healthy labour market data may cement expectations that the Fed will not cut rates soon.
However, if you look beyond the limits of short-term fluctuations, it is crucial to understand that improvements in Europe and Asia often follow robust data from the US. If this will be so, other central banks can also take a more robust monetary position as Fed did, which will undermine the value of USD to other currencies.