The dollar is retreating on renewed demand for risky assets. Stock markets are growing impressively. Oil rallying.

On February 18, American exchanges are closed on the Presidents Day holiday. Also, there is no important statistics from Europe today, so the trading will be a little calmer than usual.

Important events of the week

🇬🇧 Tue, 12:30 UK Unemployment claims have grown for 7 consecutive months and is expected to grow further, which is seen as a sign of tension before Brexit.

🇺🇸 Wed, 22:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes are in the focus of markets after the January easing of the Fed rhetoric.

🇦🇺 Thu, 03:30 Australia employment change data very often spurs AUD pairs volatility. The recent RBA rhetoric easing has alerted markets by increasing fears of an economy cooling.

🇺🇸 Fri, 19:00-21:30 Speeches by FOMC members. This density of speeches will help to understand the mood of the main participants. Potentially, it can support or reverse the trend of markets and the dollar.

Visit https://fxpro.news/economic-calendar/ for more details

The key markets are calm after impressive growth for risky assets. Cryptomarket revived suddenly

🗓 Important upcoming events and publications for February 19 (GMT):

🇬🇧 09:30 UK Unemployment claims have grown for 7 consecutive months and is expected to grow further, which is seen as a sign of tension before Brexit. Strong data are able to revive #GBP purchases.

🇩🇪 10:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment is considered as a reliable economic indicator, and since April last year it is in the negative zone, indicating the prevalence of pessimism. Another portion of the weak data is able to regain pressure on #EUR.

🇺🇸 18:00 NAHB US housing market index dropped in 4Q18 but recovered a little in January. In February, further growth is expected, which may support #USD purchases.

Visit https://fxpro.news/economic-calendar/ for more details

Long live the markets rally

Perhaps last Friday was an important markets threshold, demonstrating the dominance of bullish sentiment. The key currency market pair, EURUSD, once again received support at 1.130, and the most tracked index of stock markets, S&P500, broke above the 200-day moving average, rising by 1.5% before the long holidays.

Strong movement from a key level often acts as an important signal for the markets and is rarely accidental. Quite the opposite, many large players regard it as a signal of further movement towards a strong breakthrough.

Read more

Over the last 24 hours, Bitcoin (BTC) added more than 5%, trading around $3,950. If the benchmark cryptocurrency can overcome the $4k threshold and stay above this level, this can create a new optimism impulse for investors in Bitcoin and the entire crypto market as a whole. The main altcoin Ethereum adds more than 8% during the last 24 hours and trades around $150. It is worth noting that the rally began with the ether.

Cryptocurrencies love holidays

The second weekend in a row, the crypto community live with a long-forgotten sense of hope for the return of digital currency growth.

The largest BTC wallets do not show any significant activity, so experts suggest different triggers: from technical (cycles, undervalued assets) to geopolitical (US and Chinese trade deal) and psychological (FOMO and the feeling that the worst is over).

In fact, it may take some time before experts will find the true drivers (if they are existing at all!), however, it is the unknown growth impulses that most strongly encourage investors to open their wallets

Read more

Wave Analysis: Sugar is expected to rise further and re-test the next resistance level 14.00
Read more

Wave Analysis: EURGBP is expected to fall further and re-test the next support levels 0.8700
Read more

Sterling adds more than 1% for past 24h in hopes of progress in May’s negotiations with the EU. The optimism of the stock markets became a little more cautious.

🗓 Important upcoming events and publications for February 20 (GMT):

🇬🇧 11:00 U.K. CBI Industrial Order Expectations can revive the quiet #GBP trading in the middle of the day, as it is able to attract the market participants attention to the business community fears due to uncertainty around Brexit.

🇪🇺 15:00 Eurozone consumer confidence index declined sharply at the end of last year and reflected the prevalence of pessimism in January. A preliminary estimate for February is expected to mark a slight improvement. Sudden indicator drop can harm the #EUR recovery.

🇺🇸 19:00 U.S. FOMC January Meeting Minutes draw the attention of market participants to the official rhetoric softening. At the end of last month, hints at further rate hikes were removed from the official commentary. If this time the Fed's tone proves to be more cautious than the markets expect, it may cause #USD decline.

Visit https://fxpro.news/economic-calendar/ for more details

Yesterday the British pound crossed the threshold 1.30 after a sharp jump by more than 1.2%, continue its growth since Friday. The British pound growth is fuelled by hopes that May will be able to agree on the terms of a deal with the EU.

Exchange rate fluctuations and constant uncertainty clearly harm the economy, and its negative impact increasing as time passed. Under these conditions, pound growth is more looks like a bluff in poker.

Read more

Wave Analysis: Copper is expected to rise further and re-test the next resistance level 295.00
Read more

Wave Analysis: NZDCHF is expected to fall further and re-test the next support level 0.6800
Read more

The dollar is virtually unchanged to most competitors except AUD. Stock markets maintain moderate optimism

🗓 Important upcoming events and publications for February 21 (GMT):

🇪🇺 08:15-09:00 Preliminary PMI for the eurozone in recent months has had a negative impact on the #EUR, causing market participants frustration after weak releases. For the first time in six months, market analysts expect improvements, which is able to inspire euro buying.

🇺🇸 13:30 U.S. Durable goods orders is a leading indicator of production trends and investment activity. It is expected the second consecutive month of growth of the overall figure by 0.8%. Stronger growth can support stock markets demand and cause some #USD growth.

🇨🇦 17:50 BOC Governor Stephen Poloz Speaks (the text of the speech will be published 15 minutes earlier) at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Montreal and he will probably focus on Canada's economic performance. Optimistic economic assessments can support #CAD.

Visit https://fxpro.news/economic-calendar/ for more details

Why trade wars end is good news for the dollar
Global markets demand for risky assets persists due to hopes for trade negotiations progress and confirmation of the Fed’s soft position.

However, trade negotiations success can boost economic growth, inflation, and, as a result, force the Fed to return to a tougher rhetoric.
Read more

Wave Analysis: GBPAUD is expected to rise further and re-test the next resistance level 1.8530
Read more

Wave Analysis: Wheat is expected to rise further and re-test the next round resistance level 500.00
Read more

Markets are under pressure on fears about the American economy deteriorating. Major currencies are treading water for the 3rd day in a row

The U.S. economy cooling as an incentive for trade negotiations

Weak U.S. data cooling markets
Trump chose not a good time for trade disputes, as the economy cyclical slowdown after 10 years of growth and tax incentives worsen trading conditions.

The United States economic statistics published on Thursday disappointed market participants, causing a decline in major stock US indices by 0.4%.

Read more