The markets welcomed “patient” Fed, moved to new monthly highs. Dollar fell under pressure after FOMC signaled that interest rate hikes period be at an end

The Fed may be not enough

The American dollar came under pressure because of the willingness of the Fed to be patient in assessing the situation. This was regarded as a signal of readiness not only to take a pause in rate increases but also to complete the policy tightening cycle

The reaction, triggered by the Fed, is capable to develop a trend for the dollar decline. However, one should not lose sight of the fact that the softness of central banks over the past month (not only the Fed, but also the ECB, the People’s Bank of China, etc.) is associated with anxiety about the global growth prospects.

Most often it turns out that markets calm is temporary, and the situation continues to deteriorate, as the “wait and see” approach, which the Fed adheres to, does not correct the situation by itself.
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Wave Analysis: Copper is expected to rise further and re-test the next resistance level 283.00
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Wave Analysis: CHFJPY is expected to fall further and re-test the next support level 109.00
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The dollar has won back some loses overnight after the Fed. EURUSD once again was not able to stay above 1.15. Nevertheless, global stock indices are developing their growth

🗓 Important upcoming events and publications for February 1 (GMT):

🇪🇺 10:00 Eurozone CPI is expected to continue its slowdown. Markets have intensified their attention on the region's data, selling out the #EUR on signs of slowing growth and inflation.

🇺🇸13:30 U.S. Employment report will be in focus of the markets today and almost inevitable will provoke a strong surge of volatility. Analysts are expecting to see employment increase by 165K vs 312K month earlier. On the one hand, we saw the jump in the number of initial claims from 200K to 253K. But on the other hand, ADP reported the increase in the number of jobs by 213K vs expected 180K.

🇺🇸 15:00 US Manufacturing ISM will be in the shadow of labour market statistics. This time it will be able to have a significant impact on the markets only in case of significant deviations from forecasts. In December the index fell from 59.3 to 54.1. It is expected a small increase to 54.3 in January.

Visit https://fxpro.news/economic-calendar/ for more details

Relatively quiet start of the week on markets. Yen noticeably declines to the dollar; the other major currencies grow a little. Brent added more than 3% on Friday, and keeps its positions on Monday

🗓 Important upcoming events and publications for February 4 (GMT):

🇪🇺 10:00 Eurozone Producer price index rarely causes a big surge of #EUR volatility. Nevertheless, PPI is a reliable inflationary indicator. The index is expected to fall by 0.7%, developing a marked inflation deceleration in the region. A sharper decline may cause pressure on a single currency.

🇺🇸 15:00 U.S. Factory Orders may disrupt the quiet #USD trading process amid the lack of other news. It is expected a 0.3% increase. Sharper growth is often seen as a sign of economic strength and can support the dollar.

Visit https://fxpro.news/economic-calendar/ for more details.

Last Friday we saw strong U.S. Employment report, no matter that USD ignores it at the moment. Read more

The dollar is in no hurry to give up its positions: key currency pairs treading water. At the same time, demand for risks grows, pushing stock indices to higher, despite Alphabet’s decline

USD is gaining momentum that exerting pressure on risky assets. The Australian dollar fell sharply on the RBA's readiness to consider the rate cut.

🗓 Important upcoming events and publications for February 6 (GMT):

🇺🇸 13:30 The U.S. trade balance is in the markets focus due to Trump's attention to trade agreements. The desire to increase purchases before the introduction of elevated tariffs exacerbated the deficit by the end of last year. The truce in the trade war allows economists to predict some deficit reduction that may put some support to the #USD.

🛢15:30 U.S. Crude oil inventories data can increase #Brent and #WTI volatility. This time it is expected the increase by 1.3M barrels. Decline or weaker growth can support oil, pointing to the high demand for crude in the United States. In addition, the Crude Oil can also be affected by the level of production, which reached a record 11.9M barrels per day.

Visit https://fxpro.news/economic-calendar/ for more details.

The head of the Reserve Bank of Australia provoked the Australian currency selloff on Wednesday morning. AUDUSD loses 1.6% after Philip Low's comments on the Central Bank readiness to consider rate cuts. These 180 degrees turn compare to the previous rhetoric came as a surprise to the markets. Earlier the RBA noted that it was choosing the right moment to raise rates from a historical low.

Softness back in vogue for Central Bankers

From the beginning of the year, in official comments, the Fed made it clear that they were not sure about further rate increases, the ECB noted the need to monitor the situation and indicated that they did not want to rush to increase rates and were generally concerned about the economic slowdown.

The central banks of developing countries altogether moved to active steps in their policy. The National Bank of China reduced reserve requirements, which is another form of policy easing. In Armenia and Georgia, central banks cut rates in January. Most economists expect rate cuts in the near future in Thailand, Philippines, and India. In Indonesia, the Central Bank also sharply softened the rhetoric, despite strong economic data.

Thus, most central banks either try to defuse the situation or in fact resort to stimulating the economy through policy easing. This is positive news for the stock markets of these countries and contributes to a positive attitude in global indices.

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Wave Analysis: Platinum is expected to fall further and re-test the next round support level 800.00
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Wave Analysis: NZDUSD is expected to fall further and re-test the next support level 0.6800
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