🗓 Important upcoming events and publications for January, 22 (GMT):

🇬🇧 12:30 UK Employment report is able to increase the #GBP volatility if it shows a sharp increase in the number of unemployment claims or the cooling of wage growth, as this will be perceived as a signal of negative Brexit influence.

🇩🇪 13:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment is able to spur volatility in pairs with #EUR. Investors and traders are wary of the region's performance, fearing to see signs of more severe economy slowing.

💡The International Economic Forum in Davos will be held from 22 to 25 January with title theme "Globalization 4.0: Shaping a Global Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution". The impact of the forum was reduced this year due to the absence of the leaders from the U.S., the U.K. and France. The President of Brazil speech and discussion on the protection of the planet are scheduled for today.

🇺🇸 18:00 U.S. Existing Home sales will be one of the few statistical publications that come out despite the government shutdown, which can revive the #USD dynamics. Analysts on average expect a decline in sales from the annualized rate of 5.32M to 5.27M after two months of growth.

Visit https://fxpro.news/economic-calendar/ for more details.

Brexit update

British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Monday, that the government is working on proposals to seek further concessions from the European Union. The Irish border issue is tearing the parliament apart and delaying the signing of the current EU withdrawal bill.

At the same time, May opposes a second referendum and hopes that Britain could avoid no-deal Brexit, while, opposition leader Jeremy Corbin is backing a second referendum with two main questions on the ballot: asking the people for consent to the current plan and the resolution of the permanent customs union issue.

As it stands the majority of the Parliament is still on the side of the Tories, as the current government has repeatedly won the vote of no-confidence, and the new plan that Mrs. May presented is, at the moment, the most popular one. However the difficulty is that it still doesn’t receive the majority’s approval due to a large number of supporters seeking a softer divorce from EU on the one hand and hard line Brexiteers on the other. #AllEyesOnLondon 🇬🇧

Strong U.K. labor market report helped the British pound to turn to growth and counter the general negative sentiments on the global markets.

The average wages growth rate continues to gain momentum, rising to 3.4% y/y (incl bonuses), which is the highest rate in more than 10 years.

Bitcoin still in lull, but on the background, we see reports that in 2018 Bitcoin network had $ 3.2 trillion transactions value. Read mroe

Wave Analysis: #USDJPY is expected to fall further and re-test the next key support at 109.00
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Wave Analysis: #WTI is likely to correct down further and re-test the next round support level 50.00
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Stock markets on pause after decline overnight. USD weakens a little for past 24 hours after relatively strong data on UK wages and German investor confidence.

🗓 Important upcoming events and publications for January, 23 (GMT):

🇬🇧11:00 UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations is expected to indicate a deterioration in the balance. Weak data can have a moderately negative impact on #GBP in contrast with strong employment data yesterday.

🇨🇦13:30 Retail sales in Canada are expected to show a sharp decline of 0.7% in November after strengthening by 0.3% a month earlier. Less drastic drop has the potential to support #CAD.

🇺🇸 15:00 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index rarely causes a volatility on markets. But now markets are on the information diet, as many publications are postponed because of the US government shutdown, so the #USD reaction may be stronger than usual.

Visit https://fxpro.news/economic-calendar/ for more details.

China is at risk of following in Japan’s footsteps

Hopes for Chinese stimulus inadvertently spiked the demand for risky assets and commodities, on hopes that it triggered a general increase in economic growth, similar to that in 2009 when China became the key driver of the global economy. Although, this time is different.

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Chinese yuan is in decline after Trump advisors indicated that America will not take a soft approach with China

GBPUSD pair exceeded the 1.30 mark and for the first time in two months as Parliament is trying to persuade the Government to postpone the Brexit date past March 29th

Although, the delay in exiting the EU is not yet finalized, as we’ve seen with everything Brexit-related, things change rapidly and get re-worked on a daily basis.

Without wanting to make long-term predictions, the markets are reacting positively to the news of a possible second referendum and a delay of Brexit

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Wave Analysis: #Wheat is expected to rise further and re-test the next key resistance at 540.00
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Wave Analysis: #GBPUSD is expected to rise further and re-test the next key resistance at 1.3200
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Markets avoiding strong movements before ECB meeting. On forex the pound rises on Brexit delay hopes. Pressure for oil remains intact.

🗓 Important upcoming events and publications for January 24 (GMT):

🇩🇪 08:30 Germany Preliminary Estimate PMI release often causes markets reaction and impacts on #EUR, as it more strongly influences the expectations than final estimate. During the year, the production index falls, indicating a slowdown, but this time analysts are waiting for a small growth.

🇪🇺 13:30 The ECB press conference after the monetary policy meeting almost invariably causes #EUR volatility spike. Investors and journalist’s attention will be focused on changes of comments tone as it is expected that policy will remain unchanged. The main focus is on the date before the ECB promises not to tighten the policy.

🇺🇸 14:45 U.S. Preliminary PMI estimates are interesting compared to those in Europe, as it is also published by Markit Economics. During the previous two months, the indicator noted a slowdown of growth, although it is noticeably higher than for European economies. The drastic indicator decline can weaken #USD and increase demand for safe-havens.

Visit https://fxpro.news/economic-calendar/ for more details.

German Manufacturing is on the edge of decline, according to PMI estimates for January. Drop of this index from 51.5 to 49.9 lead EURUSD falling by 0.5% after the release. Now focus turns to ECB press-conference, whether this data was enough to soften Draghi’s rhetoric.

Weak PMIs put pressure on EUR

Eurozone economic growth has been losing strength throughout the past year, but this did not stop the ECB from cutting the QE program.

Now market participants are focused on the comments related to ECB future policy.

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Draghi's comments not only did not reassure traders with the euro after weak economic data [https://t.me/fxpro/2102], but strengthened the weakening of the single currency. The ECB head noted the increased downside risks for the economy, which sent EURUSD to 1.13000 at one moment against 1.1390 at the beginning of the day. These are minimums since January 3.