Wave Analysis: #Palladium is expected to rise further and re-test the resistance level 1160.00. Read more

🗓 Important upcoming events and publications for November 27 (GMT):

🇺🇸13:30 Fed's Vice Chairman Richard Clarida will give a speech on “Data dependence and U.S. monetary policy.” The attention of market participants will be focused on the current situation estimates and rates forecasts, which can spur market volatility, including currency pairs with #USD.

🇺🇸15:00 U.S. Consumer Confidence Indicator is designed to reflect the household assessments of prospects and the current situation. October values ​​were the highest since 2000 and were among the highest in the entire more than 30-year history of observations. In November, analysts expect a slight correction of the indicator from 137.9 to 136.2. Further growth will be a pleasant surprise for #USD.

Visit https://fxpro.news/economic-calendar/ for more information.

On Monday, index #SP500 has increased by more than 1.5% while the futures for the index have shown an upturn today morning.

The popular technical indicator –Relative Strength Index – highlights the weakness of the downward trend, taking into account the sequence of the highest lows. However, results show a clear divergence from the price dynamics, since the decline in November was much more profound than in October. Often, such a divergence between the price and the RSI precedes a significant, upcoming rebound.
An important resistance area is situated near 2810, which is 4.7% higher than the current levels, and could become a target for the market bulls.

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It is worth paying attention to the market behaviour near $3,500. This is an area that saw drastic increase back in September 2017

Achieving a previous turning point may put a stop to the cryptocurrency’s plunge. If the decline falls to levels below $3,400, then it will be difficult to stop BTC from falling to $2,750, which is the next important technical level. Nevertheless, we cannot exclude the scenario that BTC’s plunge will not stagnate for a considerable amount of time: the rebound may happen after months or even years.

While the market is closely monitoring the cryptocurrency’s price changes, some structural technological changes are taking place “behind the scenes”.

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Wave Analysis: #Copper is expected to fall further and re-test the next support level 265.00. Read more

Wave Analysis: #GBPNZD is expected to fall further and re-test the next support level 1.8620. Read more

Important upcoming events and publications for November 28 (GMT):

🇬🇧07:00 U.K. Bank Stress Test Results may cause increased volatility on #GBP. In fact, Britain has to exit from the EU, so, stressful scenarios can easily become a reality.

🇺🇸 13:30 US Goods Trade Balance can noticeably increase the fluctuations of #USD on the G20 summit eve. The main agenda there promises to be the meeting of China and US leaders due to resolve trade disputes.

🇺🇸15:00 U.S. New Home Sales is a significant indicator of consumer confidence and could predict business cycle pivot points. The latest data has noted sales failure to its lowest levels in two years, after a four-month decline. There is expected partial recovery from October data. If the forecasts are not met, this can be a serious factor of the #USD pressure.

Visit https://fxpro.news/economic-calendar/ for more details.

The meeting of the leaders of the USA and China in the upcoming weekend has sparked a positive market sentiment. However, we believe that one should not heavily rely on this meeting’s outcome.

None of the parties has expressed desire to retreat from its positions in the sake of settling the trade disputes.

Moreover, neither the United States, nor China, have yet fully felt the effect of the tariffs that have already been imposed. The tariffs imposed aimed to reduce foreign trade imbalances, but businesses, on the contrary, sought to increase purchases during the year in order to avoid another increase in tariffs.

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In case that China A50 index falls below 10800, and if the U.S. and China do not find a mutual agreement, the index may quickly roll back to the area of 10000-10100, which was the lower border of consolidation in early 2017.

Wave Analysis: #USDCAD is expected to rise further and re-test the next major resistance level 1.3390. Read more

Wave Analysis: #Platinum is expected to fall further and re-test the next support level 810. Read more

Important upcoming events and publications for November 29th (GMT):

🇬🇧 09:30 U.K. Net Lending to Individuals is a significant indicator of consumer activity. A slight decrease is expected both in total loans and in mortgages, due to uncertainty over Brexit. If the data is lower than expected, it may cause pressure on #GBP.

🇩🇪 13:00 Germany Consumer Price Index is expected to slow its annual dynamic from 2.5% to 2.2%. However, for the last several times, actual data had turned out to be above expectations, reflecting stronger inflationary pressure in the country and supporting #EUR.

🇺🇸 13:30 The US Personal Income and Spending are an important indicator of consumer activity. In fact, growth is favorable for #USD. Mention, that the Fed also pays attention to the PCE Price Index, considering it as a key indicator of inflation. It is expected to show decline from 2.0% up to 1.9%.

🇺🇸 19:00 Fed FOMC Minutes can be a key event of the day. Detailed comments on the economic situation can shed light on the Fed’s future plans and significantly affect the markets' dynamics, including #USD. In the focus: possible hints about the pause in the rate hikes and a concern about the economic market.

Visit https://fxpro.news/economic-calendar/ for more details.

The dollar (#DXY) was significantly affected by the words of the Fed Chairman on Wednesday. The dollar index has dropped by 0.9%, in response to Powell's comments that the Federal funds rate is “just below” the neutral level.

Earlier in October, Powell had warned the market that the Fed could raise the rates above the neutral level, which would push stock indices lower, increase demand for the dollar and trigger a sharp decline for Crude Oil. The shift of the Central Bank’s stance has caused the dollar to plummet overnight, and it might as well have a serious impact on the future prospects of the dollar, initiating a prolonged decline.

In the recent weeks, the Fed had given a few signals about a change in their sentiment and FOMC talks more about 2-3 rate increases in 2019, compared to 4 in 2018.

However, what’s more important, is how the markets will perceive this message, rather than the message itself. In October, market participants perceived the tone of Powell as too hawkish.

The same goes for yesterday's comments as well. It was stated that the current rate of 2.00%-2.25% is barely lower than the neutral level, which is defined as a range of 2.5%-3.5%. Nevertheless, it is only a new fact, and does not in any case cancels out the comments made in October that the rate during the current policy tightening may go above the neutral level.

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🗓 Important upcoming events and publications for November 30 (GMT):

The G20 meeting in Buenos Aires is primarily of the markets' interest. The result of negotiations between the leaders of China and the United States can cause increased market volatility, especially on Emerging Markets (#EM).

🇪🇺10:00 The EU Consumer Price Index is just above the ECB’s “below but close to 2%” target, so it attracts increased attention. Analysts’ forecasts indicate the possibility of a slowdown in November from 2.2% to 2.1%. It is not excluded a more rapid slowdown, following the data from Germany, where inflation fell from 2.4% to 2.2%. In this case, the pressure on #EUR may increase.

🇨🇦 13:30 Canada GDP for September and the third quarter is expected to mark a further slowdown in growth. Note that, this data do not include yet a period of a sharp fall in oil prices. This is the last important release before the Bank of Canada rate decision next week, so it may cause increased volatility in pairs with #CAD.

Visit https://fxpro.news/economic-calendar/ for more details.

Increased buying in the U.S. stock markets proves that participants are confident that the Fed will act cautiously and will make a pause soon

The market is demonstrating positive dynamics, and the risks are somewhat minimized. However, there are too many hopes in regard to the policymaker’s actions.

Oil supply, Trade wars, Italy’s debt, Fed, China’s slowdown - in all this issues markets demonstrates too much hope in policymakers

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Have Bitcoin really reached the “bottom”?

The BTC decline to $3500 really became an important point of support for cryptocurrency, at which the market began to buy back Bitcoins from the lows. However, it should be noted that in the current phase of the market, speculators can soon begin to take profit, which may well trigger a new wave of sales.

And then a new technical goal may be an area of about $2750 which will mark an 85% drop of digital asset from an all-time high around $ 19500.

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