A bull market does not rule out a drop in BTC to $75K

By the end of the day on Thursday, the crypto market had recovered from an intraday dip of 1.5% and returned to Wednesday’s closing level of $2.86T. One might say the market is making tentative attempts to hold onto this level, while the previous decline was merely a short-term profit-taking move following the rally. Judging by the market’s reaction to the news, the bullish turnaround occurred in August, although the market had bounced off its low in early July. In a bull market, particularly in the early stages, there are often quite aggressive corrections. Still, dips attract buyers, and rises driven by positive news tend to be stronger than falls triggered by negative news. Put simply, the market is only at the start of an upward trend that could last a year or two. Notable movements over the past 24 hours include Stellar (+8.4%), Chainlink (+8.2%) and Algorand (+7.8%), while at the other end of the spectrum are Uniswap (−2.1%), The Graph (−1.5%) and Tron (−1.4%).

Bitcoin stabilised at $84K on Friday as active trading began in Europe, having found support the previous day during a dip to $83K, but lacking any significant external impetus to resume the rally. Although the Nasdaq 100 index is near its highs, its strength is being driven by an increasingly narrow group of companies. In fact, this represents a hidden flight from risk assets following the rally in the dollar and government bond yields, which creates the risk of a pullback in BTC to $82K or slightly below. A deeper pullback to $75K, with the 50-day moving average also lying near, could cause considerable turmoil across the entire crypto market, but would effectively keep it within a bullish phase.

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⚠️ UK — BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks at 09:15 GMT

The yen launches a counterattack

USDJPY pulled back as the bond sell-off paused.

The dollar remains strong due to the high likelihood of further Fed rate rises.

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🇺🇸 Pre-market trading trends on the US stock market

📈 The US stock market is showing a predominantly positive trend in pre-market trading, driven by gains from the largest technology and consumer companies.

In the Financials sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is up 0.54%, while Bank of America (BAC) is up 0.48%.

In the Information Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) is up 0.45%, while Broadcom (AVGO) is up 1.32%.

In the Consumer Discretionary sector, Amazon (AMZN) is up 0.30%, while in the Consumer Staples sector, Walmart (WMT) is down 0.19%.

The predominance of gains among large-cap stocks is fostering a risk-on sentiment: investor interest is shifting toward equities and corporate risk, demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset appears subdued, and the US currency's performance is likely to remain neutral in the near term without any significant upward momentum.

TRON Wave Analysis – 25 September 2026

– TRON reversed from resistance level 0.3470

– Likely to fall to support level 0.3300

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Novartis Wave Analysis – 25 September 2026

– Novartis reversed from support zone

– Likely to rise to resistance level 147.50

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Starbucks Wave Analysis – 25 September 2026

Starbucks : ⬆️ Buy

– SBUX reversed from support zone

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American Express Wave Analysis – 25 September 2026

American Express: ⬆️ Buy

– AXP reversed from support level 300.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/09/27 (GMT)

14:00 🇳🇿 Daylight Saving Time Shift


[Updated in real time]

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/09/28 (GMT)

13:30 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

04:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ RBA Interest Rate Decision — Exp: 4.60%

04:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ RBA Rate Statement

05:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ RBA Media Conference


[Updated in real time]

Crypto pulls back, but greed lingers

The crypto market capitalisation is 2% higher than a week ago, but at $2.86T it is 3.7% below last Wednesday's peak. Cryptocurrencies are pulling back after a sharp rally, but so far this is not happening as sharply as in metals, let alone bonds. It is logical to expect a technical retest of the previous local highs in the $2.75T–$2.80T range. Only a sustained fall below this level should be viewed as a warning sign that a medium-term peak is forming. Although the trend over the past 24 hours has been predominantly downward, some coins continue to rise. The top gainers were The Graph (+18.1%), Immutable (+9.7%) and Hedera (+3.5%). The biggest fallers were Uniswap (−9.7%), Bitcoin Cash (−9.6%) and Dash (−6.9%).

The sentiment index stood at 74 on Monday, remaining on the verge of entering the 'extreme greed' zone. This is a commendable sign of resilience against the backdrop of a price pullback and stands in striking contrast to the 'fear' that has characterised the stock market for the past 20 days.

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The dollar has returned to its summer highs

• Rising Treasury yields and oil prices are supporting the dollar.

• The greenback’s rivals have their own vulnerabilities, which are preventing them from strengthening.

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🇺🇸 Pre-market trading trends on the US stock market

📉 Negative trends are prevailing in the US stock market's pre-market session.

In the Information Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) is up 1.67%, while Intel (INTC) is down 1.88%, and Microsoft (MSFT) is down 1.20%.
In the Communication Services sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) is down 0.79%.

In the Energy sector, Exxon Mobil (XOM) is up 1.41%, while Chevron (CVX) is up 1.20%.

Demand for safe-haven assets denominated in US dollars is strengthening: the sell-off in large-cap technology companies is fuelling risk-off sentiment, sustaining interest in dollar liquidity and creating conditions for a moderate short-term strengthening of the USD.

A strong economy shields shares from the Fed 

The US share market has not always fallen in response to rising bond yields.

A strong economy and high demand for AI are supporting the S&P 500.

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