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Crypto: No breakthrough without CLARITY

The crypto market rose to $2.71T, touching the highs seen in the second half of last week, but retreated fairly quickly to a comfortable $2.65T. The volatility can be linked to news headlines about the CLARITY Act and its rapid progress, while the pullback can be attributed to a return to the status quo after the Democrats tabled a 'counterproposal' just a few hours before the final vote. This act should clarify the future of crypto in the US; without it, it remains in the fog. Prediction markets put the chances of the bill passing by the end of the year at 19%, roughly the same as last week, after a spike to 34% on Monday. It appears the market is getting used to life without this legislation, though this has not prevented trading at levels seen in May, when the chances of the bill passing by the end of the year exceeded 75%. Among the top cryptocurrencies, the past day has seen mixed performance, with declines predominating; the biggest gains were recorded by Uniswap (+5.6%), Stellar (+5.5%) and XRP (+1.6%), while the biggest losses were suffered by Filecoin (βˆ’10.7%), Internet Computer (βˆ’6.9%) and Tezos (βˆ’6.3%).

Bitcoin rose towards $79.6K at the end of the day on Monday, before coming under steady selling pressure, pushing the price back down to $77.4K and once again placing it at the lower boundary of its consolidation range. The leading cryptocurrency needs a significant catalyst to push the price out of this range; thereafter, the liquidation of margin positions could trigger further upward or downward movement. The longer the asset remains within the range, the higher the margin positions become, and the closer stop-loss orders move towards the price, triggering avalanche-like movements. In the current BTC market, a significant increase in volatility could occur if the price breaks below $75K or above $82K. Within this range, a margin of more than 9% provides sufficient scope for short-term trading, but movements here may still be subject to excessive noise.

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Crude Oil drives up yields and USD

The rally in Brent is driving up Treasury yields and strengthening the US dollar.

The longer Saudi Arabia’s export difficulties persist, the higher oil prices will rise.

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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ US Pre-Market: Mixed πŸ“Š

The US stock market is showing mixed trends in pre-market trading, with a slight bias toward buying.

In the Information Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) is up 0.64%, while Intel (INTC) is up 1.65%.

In the Financials sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is up 0.01%, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is down 0.09%.

In the Health Care sector, Eli Lilly (LLY) is up 1.54%, while Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is down 0.15%.

As the performance of the largest companies remains mixed, no clear risk-on or risk-off sentiment has emerged.

Demand for safe-haven dollar assets is limited, but there is no reason for a large-scale exit from the dollar either: in the short term, the dollar is maintaining a neutral stance, reacting primarily to Fed rate expectations.
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▢️ USDCAD. Soon reversal

Today is Tuesday, the 15th of September, and I’d like to talk to you about the Canadian dollar. It’s been a while since we last looked at it. So let’s take a look at the four-hour chart together. What I’d like to draw your attention to is that we’re entering the final stages of this major Wave B...

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▢️ Pro News Flash: The Next S&P Move

πŸ“ˆ The S&P 500 is swinging wildly as investors shift their focus toward macroeconomic data, geopolitical developments and the Fed’s upcoming monetary tightening cycle. History shows that aggressive Fed hikes have often been linked to major market declines, but the outcome is far from certain.

⚠️ Rising U.S. government debt and uncertainty around White House policy are adding pressure to stocks. If the 10-year Treasury yield moves above 6%, Macro Risk Advisors estimates the S&P 500 could fall by 8-10% as higher rates weigh on corporate profits and potentially trigger a volatility shock.

πŸ“‰ Seasonal factors could add to the pressure, with September historically one of the weakest months for stocks. In midterm election years, the S&P 500 has averaged a 2.4% decline from July to early October as uncertainty rises.

🎯 Forecasts are also divided. Bank of America has cut its year-end S&P 500 target from 7,400 to 7,100, while TALL-BACK-en has raised its target to 8,500. With the index currently around 7,600, the Fed’s policy path could be crucial for what comes next.

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πŸ—“ Economic Calendar at 2026/09/17 (GMT)

12:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ Retail Sales β€” Exp: 0.8% | 0.6% Actual: 1.2% | 1.4%

14:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Crude Oil Inventories β€” Exp: -1600K Actual: -640K

18:00 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ FOMC Rate Decision β€” Exp: 4.00% Actual: 4.00%

18:00 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ FOMC Statement

18:00 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ FOMC Economic Projections

18:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ FOMC Press Conference

22:45 πŸ‡³πŸ‡Ώ ⚑️ Gross Domestic Product β€” Exp: 0.1% | 2.3% Actual: 0.2% | 2.6%


[Updated in real time]
FxPro pinned Β«πŸ—“ Economic Calendar at 2026/09/17 (GMT) 12:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ Retail Sales β€” Exp: 0.8% | 0.6% Actual: 1.2% | 1.4% 14:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Crude Oil Inventories β€” Exp: -1600K Actual: -640K 18:00 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ FOMC Rate Decision β€” Exp: 4.00% Actual: 4.00% 18:00 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ FOMC Statement…»
⚠️ UK β€” Consumer Price Index at 06:00 GMT

βœ”οΈ Prev: 0.3% | 2.9%

πŸ•’ Exp: 0.5% | 3.1%

🎯 Fact.: 0.5% | 3.1%
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Bitcoin slips, Zcash shines as crypto awaits the Fed

The crypto market capitalisation has fallen by 2.3% over the past 24 hours to $2.58T. Of the approximately 40 most actively traded cryptocurrencies, only Zcash has risen over the past 24 hours, gaining 3.8%. The worst performers in our sample were Filecoin (βˆ’9.2%), IOTA (βˆ’8.8%) and Stellar (βˆ’8.6%).

Bitcoin fell below $75K on Tuesday, hitting a 3.5-week low after the CLARITY Act vote failed in the US Senate, before partially recovering to $75.9K by the start of active trading in Europe. Nevertheless, the price has fallen below the consolidation range, forming a downtrend over the past week and a half. The market lull can easily be attributed to expectations of signals from the Fed later on Wednesday, which have greater potential to influence volatility than the 25-basis-point rate hike already priced in. From a technical analysis perspective, a drop in BTC to $72K does not break the medium-term bullish picture. However, it is likely to flush out a significant portion of marginal short-term long positions from the market.

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⚠️ USA β€” Retail Sales at 12:30 GMT

βœ”οΈ Prev: -0.5% | -0.2%

πŸ•’ Exp: 0.8% | 0.6%

🎯 Fact.: 1.2% πŸ“ˆ | 1.4% πŸ“ˆ
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ US Pre-Market: Moderately Positive πŸ“ˆ

Ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision, the US stock market is showing a moderately positive trend in pre-market trading.

In the Information Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) is up 0.75%, while Micron Technology (MU) is up 0.80%.

In the Financials sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is down 0.22%, while Bank of America (BAC) is up 0.13%.

In the Consumer Discretionary sector, Amazon (AMZN) is up 0.31%, while in the Consumer Staples sector, Walmart (WMT) is up 0.14%.

The predominance of gains in the most liquid technology and retail shares is creating a risk-on environment within the US.

Demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset is limited: the dollar index may remain in a neutral range without significant upward momentum, while the performance of EURUSD and other major crosses will depend more on the differential in Fed rate expectations and external news than on domestic equity market dynamics.