Bitcoin edges lower for a 4th day, capped by the 50-week MA

The crypto market continues to trade within a narrow range while awaiting fresh signals on the trend's direction. However, at $2.66T, the market capitalisation remains above its 50- and 200-day moving averages, which stand at $2.39T and $2.38T respectively, signalling a bullish ‘golden cross’, reinforced by the fact that the price is trading above this crossover. That said, historically, this does not necessarily mean an immediate rally. On the contrary, profit-taking has been evident in the market for the second consecutive day. We attribute this to the market’s cautious reaction ahead of the inflation figures and the Fed’s decision in the coming days, as well as rather worrying signals from the debt markets of developed countries, led by the US.

Bitcoin has returned to the vicinity of its recent lows, trading just below $78K after recording three consecutive red daily candles and opening Thursday lower. The week is underway, but we may be seeing resistance at the 50-week moving average, which has halted the rally. It acted as support from August 2024 to October 2025, and a breach below it was followed by a 21% decline over two weeks and a 43% drop over 12 weeks. Nevertheless, the base case scenario appears to be that the price will fluctuate near this level for some time yet before resuming its upward trend, as was the case in April–May 2019 and May–July 2020.

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The yen is strengthening before our very eyes

Capital repatriation to Japan risks pushing USDJPY significantly lower.

The US dollar is under pressure due to the Treasury, the ECB, and a stronger yen.

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▶️ Gold. Triangle?

Today is Thursday, the 10th of September, and we’re going to talk about the gold market. A very interesting situation is unfolding there. Well, what makes it interesting is that, within a large anticipated triangle, a pattern like this is developing – we can see it in wave...

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⚠️ EU — ECB Interest Rate Decision at 12:15 GMT

✔️ Prev: 2.40%

🕒 Exp: 2.65%

🎯 Fact.: 2.65%

⚠️ USA — Producer Price Index at 12:30 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.1% | 4.8%

🕒 Exp: 0.4% | 5.3%

🎯 Fact.: 0.4% | 5.4% 📈

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⚠️ USA — Core PPI at 12:30 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.3% | 4.3%

🕒 Exp: 0.3% | 4.6%

🎯 Fact.: 0.2% 📉 | 4.6%

⚠️ EU — ECB Press Conference at 12:45 GMT

🇺🇸 US Pre-Market: Mostly Negative 📉

Negative trends are prevailing in the US stock market pre-market.

In the Financials sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is up 0.45%, while Bank of America (BAC) is up 0.30%.

In the Information Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) is down 1.26%, while Broadcom (AVGO) is down 1.65%.

In the Consumer Discretionary sector, Tesla (TSLA) is down 1.98%, while Amazon (AMZN) is down 0.61%.

Under these conditions, the foreign exchange market is signalling increased demand for safe-haven dollar assets.

In the short term, this is supporting the US Dollar Index through reallocation of capital from risk equities into money markets, while the potential for dollar weakness remains limited until there are signs of a reversal in risk appetite or a softening of Fed policy expectations.

The ECB raised interest rates, but not its tone

As expected, the ECB raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points, and the tone of the accompanying statement was fairly optimistic. Although the Bank referred to mounting inflationary pressures and uncertainty stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, it raised its GDP growth forecasts for next year. Inflation forecasts exceed the ECB’s target for the foreseeable future, which also sounds like a compelling argument for further policy tightening.

The single currency, which had lost 0.3% against the dollar at the start of active trading in Europe, found support near 1.1610 and recouped half of its losses in the first few minutes following the interest rate announcement. The statement’s emphatically neutral tone, coupled with a readiness to act in either direction, is nevertheless difficult to interpret as a bullish signal for the single currency, as central banks prefer to signal their intentions over a certain time horizon. If that is the case, the current signal is one of a pause.

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AUDNZD Wave Analysis – 10 September 2026

– AUDNZD broke resistance zone

– Likely to rise to resistance level 1.2460

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GBPJPY Wave Analysis – 11 September 2026

– GBPJPY reversed from resistance zone

– Likely to fall to support level 50.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/09/12 (GMT)

09:15 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel Speaks

10:30 🇷🇺 ⚡️ Key bank rate — Exp: 14.00% Actual: 14.00%

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.4% | 3.4% Actual: 0.4% | 3.4%

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Core CPI — Exp: 0.2% | 2.4% Actual: 0.3% | 2.4%

14:00 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

14:00 🇺🇸 UoM Consumer Sentiment — Exp: 51.0 Actual: 47.8

07:30 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Dow Jones Wave Analysis – 11 September 2026

Dow Jones: ⬇️ Sell

– Dow Jones broke support zone

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Platinum Wave Analysis – 11 September 2026

– Platinum reversed from resistance zone

– Likely to fall to support level 1700.00

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⚠️ UK — Gross Domestic Product at 06:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.3% | 0.4%

🕒 Exp: 0.0% | 0.3%

🎯 Fact.: 0.4% 📈 | 0.4% 📈

The ECB’s hawkish stance did little to help the euro, as markets focused on the Fed

• The ECB raised interest rates and struck an optimistic tone, but this proved insufficient to bolster the EURUSD.

• Accelerating inflation in the US is reinforcing confidence that the Fed will raise rates.

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⚠️ Switzerland — SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel Speaks at 09:15 GMT

⚠️ Russia — Key bank rate at 10:30 GMT

✔️ Prev: 14.00%

🕒 Exp: 14.00%

🎯 Fact.: 14.00%

GBPJPY Wave Analysis – 11 September 2026

– GBPJPY reversed from resistance zone

– Likely to fall to support level 50.00

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The crypto market has retreated to support levels while awaiting data

The crypto market capitalisation fell by 1.1% to $2.63T as investors moved away from risk assets in response to US inflation data. However, the market remains within the consolidation range seen over the last few days, indicating a wait-and-see attitude. At this stage, it is too early to speak of a repeat reversal from the resistance zone, where the market also reversed in May.

Bitcoin fell below $77K on Thursday, hitting an eight-day low, against the backdrop of a sharp rise in US government bond yields following a surge in producer prices, which reinforced expectations of a Fed rate hike. On the weekly charts, BTC is pulling back from the 50-week moving average, undermining the bulls’ efforts. Nevertheless, the price of the leading cryptocurrency is currently finding support from buyers at the lower boundary of the consolidation range.

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⚠️ USA — Consumer Price Index at 12:30 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.1% | 3.4%

🕒 Exp: 0.4% | 3.4%

🎯 Fact.: 0.4% | 3.4%

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⚠️ USA — Core CPI at 12:30 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.2% | 2.5%

🕒 Exp: 0.2% | 2.4%

🎯 Fact.: 0.3% 📈 | 2.4%