🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/09/04 (GMT)

08:00 🇪🇺 Services PMI — Exp: 51.7 Actual: 51.6

08:00 🇪🇺 PMI Composite — Exp: 52.1 Actual: 52.0

12:30 🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims — Exp: 205K Actual: 206K

12:30 🇺🇸 Trade Balance — Exp: -89.4B Actual: -88.6B

12:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Christopher J. Waller Speaks

12:30 🇨🇦 Trade Balance — Exp: 3.2B Actual: 0.8B

14:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ ISM Services PMI — Exp: 54.3 Actual: 55.4


[Updated in real time]

GBPUSD Wave Analysis – 3 September  2026

– GBPUSD reversed from resistance zone

– Likely to fall to support level 1.3435

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NZDCAD Wave Analysis – 3 September  2026

NZDCAD : ⬇️ Sell

– NZDCAD reversed from resistance zone

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The yen is advancing on three fronts

• Rumours of changes to the GPIF’s portfolio structure, currency interventions and monetary tightening by the BoJ are bolstering the yen.

• Falling Treasury yields and a weakening dollar are lending a helping hand to the ‘bears’ on USDJPY.

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▶️ Oil. Forecast Change

Today is Thursday, the 3rd of September, and we’re going to talk about the oil market, where I’m ruling out the scenario that we’ll see a rise to the 70 to 72 mark before a major rally. You’ll recall that my forecast was: the second wave would arrive here, and we’d see a scenario like this.

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🇺🇸 US Pre-Market: Mostly Positive 📈

The US stock market is showing a positive trend in pre-market trading, driven by gains from the largest technology companies.

In the Information Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) is up 0.37%, Apple (AAPL) is down 0.29%, while Microsoft (MSFT) is up 0.88%.

In the Communication Services sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) is up 0.39%.
In the Health Care sector, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is up 0.50%, while Merck (MRK) is up 0.88%.

The rise among mega-cap companies in the technology and health care sectors points to risk-on sentiment within the US market: capital is predominantly remaining in the US and being reallocated into shares of market leaders.

In this environment, demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset is limited, keeping the short-term USD trend largely neutral.

⚠️ USA — ISM Services PMI at 14:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 54.1

🕒 Exp: 54.3

🎯 Fact.: 55.4 📈

Bullish crypto consolidation

The crypto market’s capitalisation has remained within the $2.58T–$2.68T range for almost two weeks now. Having staged an impressive rally from 19 to 22 August, the market has returned to a consolidation phase. However, this is already a bullish consolidation rather than a mere pause, as the market achieved a significant technical breakout last month, and the lull of recent days is merely alleviating short-term overbought conditions.

The sentiment index, at 65 (greed), confirms the optimistic mood and a fundamental shift in the cryptocurrency market’s trend. That said, it is quite reasonable to expect that sentiment has not yet reached extreme greed, given that the market is nearly 40% below its peak.

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Dow Jones Index Wave Analysis – 3 September 2026

Dow Jones Index: ⬆️ Buy

– Dow Jones Index reversed from support zone

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CHFJPY Wave Analysis – 3 September 2026

– CHFJPY reversed from key support level 192.55

– Likely to rise to resistance level 194.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/09/05 (GMT)

08:50 🇬🇧 ⚡️ BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Non-Farm Employment Change — Exp: 55K Actual: 162K

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.1% Actual: 4.1%

12:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings — Exp: 0.3% | 3.0% Actual: 0.3% | 3.1%

12:30 🇺🇸 Change in Private Payrolls — Exp: 45K Actual: 127K

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Employment Change — Exp: 15.1K Actual: -41.7K

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 6.4% Actual: 6.4%

12:30 🇨🇦 Part-Time Employment Change Actual: -35.9K | -5.8K

14:00 🇨🇦 Ivey PMI — Exp: 56.2 Actual: 64.3 | 62.7


[Updated in real time]

⚠️ UK — BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks at 08:50 GMT

The crypto market is testing May’s highs

The crypto market soared by more than 4% to $2.71T, reaching May’s highs at the very start of the day following nearly two weeks of consolidation after the rally. Bitcoin was the key driver, with altcoins actively supporting it, but the renewal of highs soon fuelled profit-taking. It appears there is a strong inclination towards short-term profit-taking in the markets, coupled with scepticism about the market shifting into a bullish phase. Among the top coins over the past 24 hours, the top gainers were Dash (+18%), Zcash (14.7%) and Uniswap (+9.5%), whilst the worst performers were Filecoin (-4.8%), Aptos (-2.7%) and Immutable (-0.6%).

Overnight, Bitcoin rose to $82K between the active trading sessions in the US and Asia. Still, by the start of active trading in Europe, it had pulled back to just below $81K, whilst remaining above the local resistance level seen in recent days. The leading cryptocurrency reached its May rebound highs, rallying within a few hours from the lows of its consolidation range to break above its upper boundary. Further gains pave the way to the year’s opening highs near $95K. However, it appears that this will require support in the form of further strengthening of stock indices and a weaker dollar.

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The dollar has staked its fate on the NFP

The US employment figures for August could send the US dollar on a rollercoaster ride.

The strengthening of the yen is leading to a fall in yields on Japanese and US bonds alike.

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⚠️ USA — Non-Farm Employment Change at 12:30 GMT

✔️ Prev: 21K

🕒 Exp: 55K

🎯 Fact.: 162K 📈

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⚠️ USA — Unemployment Rate at 12:30 GMT

✔️ Prev: 4.1%

🕒 Exp: 4.1%

🎯 Fact.: 4.1%

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⚠️ Canada — Employment Change at 12:30 GMT

✔️ Prev: 75.1K

🕒 Exp: 15.1K

🎯 Fact.: -41.7K 📉

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⚠️ Canada — Unemployment Rate at 12:30 GMT

✔️ Prev: 6.4%

🕒 Exp: 6.4%

🎯 Fact.: 6.4%

🇺🇸 US Pre-Market: Mostly Negative 📉

Following the release of unemployment figures, the US stock market is trending predominantly lower in pre-market trading.

In the Information Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) is up 1.11%, Apple (AAPL) is down 0.29%, while Microsoft (MSFT) is down 0.35%.

In the Communication Services sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) is down 0.28%.
In the Consumer Discretionary sector, Amazon (AMZN) is up 0.37%, while Tesla (TSLA) is down 3.06%.

Overall, declines are prevailing among the largest names by market cap, indicating a flight from risk within the US market and a shift in demand toward safe-haven dollar assets.

In these conditions, the dollar is receiving moderate short-term support through interest in US monetary instruments.

Brent Wave Analysis – 4 September 2026

– Brent crude oil reversed from resistance level 96.00

– Likely to fall to support level 90.00

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DAX Index Wave Analysis – 4 September 2026

DAX Index: ⬆️ Buy

– DAX Index reversed from support level 25900.00

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Johnson & Johnson Wave Analysis – 4 September 2026

Johnson & Johnson: ⬆️ Buy

– Johnson & Johnson broke resistance zone

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