Gold: heading for $3,600?

Easing concerns over the Fed’s independence have bolstered the Dollar.

Fears of high interest rates are weighing on gold.

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▶️ S&P 500. Alternative

Today is the 30th of June.

Let's talk about an alternative scenario for the S&P 500, 1 that is extremely important because if prices follow this scenario, we can expect the start of a multi-year downtrend in the US stock market as early as July.

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Oil finds no silver lining

Oil has returned to the levels seen before the armed conflict in the Middle East much sooner than expected. Brent’s fall of almost 40% from its March highs is not solely due to more barrels coming from the Persian Gulf. The market has adapted to the most far-reaching crisis in the history of the oil market. As a result, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz need not return to previous levels to restore balance. A return to 65%, or 11-12M BPD, will be sufficient.

Morgan Stanley put forward this assumption and lowered its forecast for the average Brent price to $75 per barrel in the third and fourth quarters, a $15 and $5 lower than its previous estimate, respectively. According to the bank, while more barrels are flowing through the main oil artery, the bears’ previous trump cards remain in play. These include record growth in US exports and a decline in Chinese energy imports.

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⚠️ Canada — Gross Domestic Product at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: -0.1 | 0.4%

🕒 Exp: 0.4%

🎯 Fact.: 0.5% 📈 | 1.1%

🇺🇸 US Pre-Market: Mixed 📊

The US stock market is showing mixed trends in pre-market trading, with a slight bias toward gains among the largest technology companies, indicating cautious risk-on sentiment.

In the Information Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) is up 0.85%, Intel (INTC) is down 0.47%, while Microsoft (MSFT) is up 0.13%.

In the Communication Services sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) is up 0.31%.

In the Financials sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is down 0.11%, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is down 0.10%.

The predominance of gains among the largest-cap technology stocks is fostering cautious risk-on sentiment and limiting demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Under these conditions, the dollar generally trades without clear upward momentum, and the short-term trend remains largely neutral.

AUDCAD Wave Analysis – 30 June 2026

- AUDCAD reversed from support area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9945

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Nikkei 225 Wave Analysis – 30 June 2026

Nikkei 225: ⬆️ Buy

- Nikkei 225 reversed from support level 68600.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/07/02 (GMT)

08:00 🇪🇺 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 51.3 Actual: 51.4

09:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 3.0% Actual: 2.8%

09:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index - Core — Exp: 2.5% Actual: 2.4%

12:15 🇺🇸 ⚡️ ADP Non-Farm Employment Change — Exp: 118K Actual: 98K

13:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh Speaks

13:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

13:00 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

13:00 🇨🇦 BOC Governor Tiff Macklem Speaks

14:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ ISM Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 53.8 Actual: 53.3

14:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories — Exp: -2900K Actual: -3775K

14:30 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

04:30 🇨🇭 SNB Financial Stability Report

06:30 🇨🇭 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.1% | 0.5%


[Updated in real time]

Bitcoin at $59K: Strategy’s sell-off fears are weighing on the market

The crypto market is trading at $2.06T, unchanged from the previous day. Still, the current levels represent a recovery from a low of $2.02T, where the cap had fallen at the start of the active US trading session and again at the opening of the Asian session. Cryptocurrencies remain under pressure from fears of selling by Strategy, casting a shadow over the relatively positive backdrop of favourable stock market dynamics and a declining dollar. Among the top coins over the past 24 hours, the leaders were Stellar (+7%), Cardano (+4.8%) and Bitcoin Cash (+3.6%). The underperformers were Aave (-3.9%), Algorand (-3.2%) and Basic Attention Token (-3%).

The sentiment index plummeted to 11, its lowest level in roughly the last three weeks. June turned out to be a rather gloomy month, as sentiment was above the ‘extreme fear’ threshold of 25 on only the 1st, remaining within the range of 8 to 23 for the rest of the month.

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Brent: surplus spooks the bulls

Goldman Sachs expects an oil market surplus of 3 million BPD in 2027.

Without Warsh’s help, Japan will be forced to resort to currency interventions.

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▶️ Pro News Flash: Oil Faces a Supply Shock

🛢️ Brent crude has fallen back to levels seen before the Middle East conflict, as fears of supply disruptions fade and global markets quickly adapt to the geopolitical crisis.

📉 Morgan Stanley has cut its Brent oil forecast to $75 per barrel for the third and fourth quarters, citing stronger US exports, weaker Chinese demand and improving supply through the Strait of Hormuz.

🌍 Supply pressures continue to build. Gulf producers are finding alternative export routes, while Iranian production could rise to 3.3 million barrels per day if sanctions are lifted, adding even more barrels to an already well-supplied market.

📊 Although oil prices could temporarily recover if tensions in the Middle East escalate again, analysts believe the longer term outlook remains bearish as production continues to outpace demand.

📦 The International Energy Agency expects global oil supply to increase sharply over the coming years, raising the risk of a significant market surplus and keeping downward pressure on Brent crude prices.

⚠️ With supply recovering faster than demand and major banks turning increasingly bearish, traders are watching closely to see whether oil prices have further room to fall.

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⚠️ USA — ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 122K

🕒 Exp: 118K

🎯 Fact.: 98K 📉

⚠️ USA — Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh Speaks at 13:00 GMT


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⚠️ UK — BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks at 13:00 GMT

⚠️ USA — ISM Manufacturing PMI at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 54.0

🕒 Exp: 53.8

🎯 Fact.: 53.3 📉

Apple Wave Analysis – 1 July 2026

- Apple reversed from support level 280.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 300.00

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Bitcoin Wave Analysis – 1 July 2026

- Bitcoin reversed from pivotal support level 58825.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 65500.00

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Microsoft Wave Analysis – 1 July 2026

- Microsoft reversed from strong support level 355.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 400.00

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EURGBP Wave Analysis – 1 July 2026

- EURGBP broke multi-month support level 0.8610

- Likely to fall to support level 0.8550

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/07/03 (GMT)

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Non-Farm Employment Change — Exp: 114K Actual: 57K

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.3% Actual: 4.2%

12:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings — Exp: 0.3% | 3.5% Actual: 0.3% | 3.5%

12:30 🇺🇸 Change in Private Payrolls — Exp: 107K Actual: 49K

12:30 🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims — Exp: 220K Actual: 215K

13:30 🇨🇦 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Actual: 53.0

01:45 🇨🇳 Markit Services PMI — Exp: 53.6 Actual: 54.1

01:45 🇨🇳 Markit Composite PMI — Exp: 53.3 Actual: 53.6


[Updated in real time]