🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/06/30 (GMT)

17:30 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

01:30 🇨🇳 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 50.1 Actual: 50.3

01:30 🇨🇳 Non-Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 49.9 Actual: 50.2

01:30 🇦🇺 Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

06:00 🇬🇧 Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.6% | 1.1%

07:55 🇩🇪 Unemployment Change — Exp: 8K

07:55 🇩🇪 Unemployment Rate — Exp: 6.4%


[Updated in real time]

The dollar: geopolitics back in the picture

• The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East will bolster the greenback as a safe-haven asset.

• Data on European inflation and the US labour market will determine the fate of EURUSD.

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S&P 500: Will the correction continue?

• The stock market is being spooked by talk of a tech bubble, high Fed interest rates and geopolitical tensions.

• Over time, problems may arise not only for buyers but also for sellers of chips.

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▶️ USD Summer prospects

Today is Monday, the 29th of June.

Let's talk about the US dollar index, the outlook for the US dollar this summer.

What we can expect, and most importantly, trading strategies for the major dollar denominated currency pairs.

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MGM Resorts Wave Analysis – 29 June 2026

MGM Resorts: ⬆️ Buy

- MGM Resorts reversed from support zone

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Trump Coin Wave Analysis – 29 June 2026

Trump Coin: ⬆️ Buy

- Trump Coin reversed from support zone

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Natural Gas Wave Analysis – 29 June 2026

Natural Gas: ⬇️ Sell

- Natural Gas reversed from resistance zone

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GBPJPY Wave Analysis – 29 June 2026

- GBPJPY reversed from support area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 215.40

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/07/01 (GMT)

12:00 🇩🇪 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.0% | 2.5% Actual: -0.3% | 2.3%

12:00 🇩🇪 Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised — Exp: 0.1% | 2.6% Actual: -0.2% | 2.4%

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.4% Actual: 0.5% | 1.1%

14:00 🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence — Exp: 94.4 Actual: 91.2

14:00 🇺🇸 JOLTs Job Openings — Exp: 7280K Actual: 7590K

23:50 🇯🇵 Tankan Manufacturing Index — Exp: 16 Actual: 22

23:50 🇯🇵 Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index — Exp: 35 Actual: 37

23:50 🇯🇵 Tankan Large All Industry Capex — Exp: 11.0% Actual: 11.5%

23:50 🇯🇵 Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook — Exp: 13 Actual: 17

23:50 🇯🇵 Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook — Exp: 30 Actual: 28

01:45 🇨🇳 Markit Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 51.7 Actual: 51.7


[Updated in real time]

Is Bitcoin set to move lower?

The crypto market capitalisation has changed little over the past 24 hours, remaining close to $2.06T. Among the most popular coins with traders, the top gainers are Stellar (+7.3%), Zcash (+4.2%), and Solana (+2.2%). The biggest fallers were Cosmos and Aave (both down 3.9%) and Immutable (-2.9%).

Bitcoin has been trading predominantly within a narrow range of $59K-$60K for the fifth consecutive day. This is a rather dangerous consolidation for the bulls, as it is taking place below previous local lows, from which the price rebounded in February and June. The leading cryptocurrency underwent a similar consolidation from March to October 2024, stuck in the $55–70K range with brief breakouts. But that was a consolidation in a rising market, whereas this one is in a falling market, given the direction of the 200- and 50-day moving averages and their position relative to the price. If we are indeed seeing a step-by-step decline, the next step could be the $40K mark.

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Gold: heading for $3,600?

Easing concerns over the Fed’s independence have bolstered the Dollar.

Fears of high interest rates are weighing on gold.

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▶️ S&P 500. Alternative

Today is the 30th of June.

Let's talk about an alternative scenario for the S&P 500, 1 that is extremely important because if prices follow this scenario, we can expect the start of a multi-year downtrend in the US stock market as early as July.

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Oil finds no silver lining

Oil has returned to the levels seen before the armed conflict in the Middle East much sooner than expected. Brent’s fall of almost 40% from its March highs is not solely due to more barrels coming from the Persian Gulf. The market has adapted to the most far-reaching crisis in the history of the oil market. As a result, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz need not return to previous levels to restore balance. A return to 65%, or 11-12M BPD, will be sufficient.

Morgan Stanley put forward this assumption and lowered its forecast for the average Brent price to $75 per barrel in the third and fourth quarters, a $15 and $5 lower than its previous estimate, respectively. According to the bank, while more barrels are flowing through the main oil artery, the bears’ previous trump cards remain in play. These include record growth in US exports and a decline in Chinese energy imports.

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⚠️ Canada — Gross Domestic Product at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: -0.1 | 0.4%

🕒 Exp: 0.4%

🎯 Fact.: 0.5% 📈 | 1.1%

🇺🇸 US Pre-Market: Mixed 📊

The US stock market is showing mixed trends in pre-market trading, with a slight bias toward gains among the largest technology companies, indicating cautious risk-on sentiment.

In the Information Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) is up 0.85%, Intel (INTC) is down 0.47%, while Microsoft (MSFT) is up 0.13%.

In the Communication Services sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) is up 0.31%.

In the Financials sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is down 0.11%, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is down 0.10%.

The predominance of gains among the largest-cap technology stocks is fostering cautious risk-on sentiment and limiting demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Under these conditions, the dollar generally trades without clear upward momentum, and the short-term trend remains largely neutral.

AUDCAD Wave Analysis – 30 June 2026

- AUDCAD reversed from support area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9945

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Nikkei 225 Wave Analysis – 30 June 2026

Nikkei 225: ⬆️ Buy

- Nikkei 225 reversed from support level 68600.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/07/02 (GMT)

08:00 🇪🇺 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 51.3 Actual: 51.4

09:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 3.0% Actual: 2.8%

09:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index - Core — Exp: 2.5% Actual: 2.4%

12:15 🇺🇸 ⚡️ ADP Non-Farm Employment Change — Exp: 118K Actual: 98K

13:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh Speaks

13:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

13:00 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

13:00 🇨🇦 BOC Governor Tiff Macklem Speaks

14:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ ISM Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 53.8 Actual: 53.3

14:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories — Exp: -2900K Actual: -3775K

14:30 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

04:30 🇨🇭 SNB Financial Stability Report

06:30 🇨🇭 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.1% | 0.5%


[Updated in real time]