The dollar: Has it peaked?

The USD index is retreating as the likelihood of a Fed rate hike diminishes.

Gold has lost the ‘debasement trade’ as a key driver and is facing capital outflows from ETFs.

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$4,000: Just a pause, not the end of Gold’s decline

Gold is rebounding at the end of the week after a correction in the odds of two key Fed rate hikes this year. Nevertheless, the price is falling for the fourth consecutive week. Since the second half of the week, bears have been relentlessly trying to push the price below the psychologically significant $4,000 mark but eased their grip on Friday afternoon. At the same time, the long-term moving averages favour sellers, as a ‘death cross’ is looming (when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average), reinforced by the fact that the price is trading below this cross.

On the weekly charts, attempts to push the price back above the 50-week moving average have failed. However, this is also the price support zone from the end of last year, so we can expect a fairly fierce battle around the current level.

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CHFJPY Wave Analysis – 26 June 2026

- CHFJPY reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 202.30

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Johnson & Johnson Wave Analysis – 26 June 2026

Johnson & Johnson: ⬆️ Buy

- Johnson & Johnson broke resistance level 250.00

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JPMorgan Chase Wave Analysis – 26 June 2026

JPMorgan Chase: ⬇️ Sell

- JPMorgan Chase reversed from key resistance level 336.86

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▶️ FxPro: What’s Moving Markets Next Week

Stay informed with FxPro’s weekly update and stay ahead of what’s shaping the markets.

Markets are heading into another important week of economic data, with inflation, manufacturing activity and the US labour market all set to shape expectations for interest rates and global growth. 🌍

Wednesday begins with the latest Eurozone Flash CPI report. Inflation is expected to remain elevated at 3.2%, raising fresh questions over whether the European Central Bank's recent rate hike will be enough to bring price pressures under control. 🇪🇺

Attention then shifts to the US with the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The previous reading came in at 54.0, but ongoing tensions between the US and Iran continue to push up manufacturing costs and could weigh on business activity. 🏭

Thursday brings the closely watched US Non-Farm Payrolls report, released a day earlier than usual ahead of the 4 July public holiday. The previous report showed 172,000 new jobs added, while unemployment stood at 4.3%, making this a key release for expectations around future Federal Reserve policy. 📊

With inflation, manufacturing and employment all under the spotlight, currencies, indices and commodities could see increased volatility throughout the week. 👀

🔔 Like, share, and subscribe for more weekly updates from FxPro!

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/06/29 (GMT)

12:15 🇦🇺 RBA Governor Michele Bullock Speaks


[Updated in real time]

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/06/30 (GMT)

17:30 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

01:30 🇨🇳 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 50.1 Actual: 50.3

01:30 🇨🇳 Non-Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 49.9 Actual: 50.2

01:30 🇦🇺 Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

06:00 🇬🇧 Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.6% | 1.1%

07:55 🇩🇪 Unemployment Change — Exp: 8K

07:55 🇩🇪 Unemployment Rate — Exp: 6.4%


[Updated in real time]

The dollar: geopolitics back in the picture

• The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East will bolster the greenback as a safe-haven asset.

• Data on European inflation and the US labour market will determine the fate of EURUSD.

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S&P 500: Will the correction continue?

• The stock market is being spooked by talk of a tech bubble, high Fed interest rates and geopolitical tensions.

• Over time, problems may arise not only for buyers but also for sellers of chips.

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▶️ USD Summer prospects

Today is Monday, the 29th of June.

Let's talk about the US dollar index, the outlook for the US dollar this summer.

What we can expect, and most importantly, trading strategies for the major dollar denominated currency pairs.

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MGM Resorts Wave Analysis – 29 June 2026

MGM Resorts: ⬆️ Buy

- MGM Resorts reversed from support zone

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Trump Coin Wave Analysis – 29 June 2026

Trump Coin: ⬆️ Buy

- Trump Coin reversed from support zone

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Natural Gas Wave Analysis – 29 June 2026

Natural Gas: ⬇️ Sell

- Natural Gas reversed from resistance zone

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GBPJPY Wave Analysis – 29 June 2026

- GBPJPY reversed from support area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 215.40

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/07/01 (GMT)

12:00 🇩🇪 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.0% | 2.5% Actual: -0.3% | 2.3%

12:00 🇩🇪 Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised — Exp: 0.1% | 2.6% Actual: -0.2% | 2.4%

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.4% Actual: 0.5% | 1.1%

14:00 🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence — Exp: 94.4 Actual: 91.2

14:00 🇺🇸 JOLTs Job Openings — Exp: 7280K Actual: 7590K

23:50 🇯🇵 Tankan Manufacturing Index — Exp: 16 Actual: 22

23:50 🇯🇵 Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index — Exp: 35 Actual: 37

23:50 🇯🇵 Tankan Large All Industry Capex — Exp: 11.0% Actual: 11.5%

23:50 🇯🇵 Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook — Exp: 13 Actual: 17

23:50 🇯🇵 Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook — Exp: 30 Actual: 28

01:45 🇨🇳 Markit Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 51.7 Actual: 51.7


[Updated in real time]

Is Bitcoin set to move lower?

The crypto market capitalisation has changed little over the past 24 hours, remaining close to $2.06T. Among the most popular coins with traders, the top gainers are Stellar (+7.3%), Zcash (+4.2%), and Solana (+2.2%). The biggest fallers were Cosmos and Aave (both down 3.9%) and Immutable (-2.9%).

Bitcoin has been trading predominantly within a narrow range of $59K-$60K for the fifth consecutive day. This is a rather dangerous consolidation for the bulls, as it is taking place below previous local lows, from which the price rebounded in February and June. The leading cryptocurrency underwent a similar consolidation from March to October 2024, stuck in the $55–70K range with brief breakouts. But that was a consolidation in a rising market, whereas this one is in a falling market, given the direction of the 200- and 50-day moving averages and their position relative to the price. If we are indeed seeing a step-by-step decline, the next step could be the $40K mark.

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Gold: heading for $3,600?

Easing concerns over the Fed’s independence have bolstered the Dollar.

Fears of high interest rates are weighing on gold.

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