Bitcoin at the 200-Week MA Hints at a Long Winter

The crypto market capitalisation has stabilised at a low of $2.14T, having lost its recovery momentum in the second half of June after touching the 61.8% line. Consequently, there is a risk of a bearish expansion pattern forming, with the potential for a decline to a market capitalisation of $1.6T, a quarter below the current level. A break below the early-June lows would confirm this scenario, although increased buyer activity is evident near current levels. In any case, the stock market and the US dollar remain the key drivers, while cryptocurrencies are reacting to changes in the fundamental backdrop.

Bitcoin is trading below $63K, once again hovering near its seven-day lows. At these levels, the leading cryptocurrency remains close to its 200-week moving average. A dip towards this line in 2022 marked the start of nearly six quarters of poor performance, with prices hovering near this curve; in 2018, such a period lasted six months, and in 2015, nine. In other words, history suggests we should brace for a crypto winter rather than a rapid rebound.

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WTI Crude Oil Wave Analysis – 24 June 2026

WTI Crude Oil: ⬇️ Sell

- WTI Crude Oil broke support level 75.00

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Solana Wave Analysis – 24 June 2026

- Solana reversed from resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 60.00

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Platinum Wave Analysis – 24 June 2026

- Platinum broke support level 1645.00

- Likely to fall to support level 1500.00

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Sushiswap Wave Analysis – 24 June 2026

- Sushiswap broke pivotal support level 0.1600

- Likely to fall to support level 0.1200

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⚠️ Australia — Employment Change at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: -40.7K

🕒 Exp: 31.2K

🎯 Fact.: 40.3K 📈

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⚠️ Australia — Unemployment Rate at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 4.5%

🕒 Exp: 4.4%

🎯 Fact.: 4.4%

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/06/26 (GMT)

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 1.6% Actual: 2.1%

12:30 🇺🇸 Core Personal Consumption Expenditure — Exp: 4.4% Actual: 4.4%

12:30 🇺🇸 GDP Price Index — Exp: 3.5% Actual: 3.6%

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Core PCE Price Index — Exp: 0.3% | 3.4% Actual: 0.3% | 3.4%

12:30 🇺🇸 Personal Spending — Exp: 0.6% Actual: 0.7%

12:30 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders — Exp: -4.9% | 0.5% Actual: -4.5% | 1.3%

12:30 🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims — Exp: 225K Actual: 215K


[Updated in real time]

Bitcoin has formed a double bottom at $59K

The crypto market has fallen 1.4% over the past 24 hours, retreating to $2.12T as it continues its gradual return to the lows seen at the start of June. Notably, this time, cryptocurrencies were in no hurry to rebound alongside the stock market, preferring to wait for a more confident recovery to take shape. Over the past 24 hours, the top gainers were Aave (+14.2%), Internet Computer (+3.6%) and Gram (formerly Toncoin, +2.9%). The biggest declines were SushiSwap (-7.7%), Theta Network (-7.5%) and IOTA (-5.7%).

Bitcoin re-tested its early-June lows, touching $59K at the low point of Wednesday’s sell-off. This was followed by a decisive rebound, fuelling the bulls’ hopes of a double bottom forming. Should the rebound continue, the nearest upside potential is $67K, mirroring the movement seen in the first half of the month. For now, however, we are sticking to the ‘boring scenario’ described earlier, involving several weeks of consolidation near the 200-week moving average. This is trending higher and currently sits near $62.2K, with a likelihood of reaching $68K by October.

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⚠️ USA — Gross Domestic Product at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 1.6%

🕒 Exp: 1.6%

🎯 Fact.: 2.1% 📈

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⚠️ USA — Core PCE Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.3% | 3.3%

🕒 Exp: 0.3% | 3.4%

🎯 Fact.: 0.3% | 3.4%

🇺🇸 US Pre-Market: Mostly Negative 📉

Negative trends are prevailing in the US stock market pre-market.

In the Financials sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is up 0.11%, while Bank of America (BAC) is up 0.45%.

In the Information Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) is up 1.27%, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up 4.68%.

In the Consumer Discretionary sector, McDonald's (MCD) is down 0.10%, while Starbucks (SBUX) is down 0.49%.

Overall, the market appears to be trending lower: major large-cap technology names and some consumer stocks are trading in the red, while gains in semiconductors and select financial names are not yet offsetting the broader downward pressure. The predominance of declines among the most highly capitalised technology companies points to risk aversion within the US market, supporting demand for safe-haven dollar assets and potentially contributing to moderate dollar strengthening.

The Euro: After the Sunset Comes the Dawn

Monetary policy divergence is weighing on EURUSD.

Europe has always recovered from crises.

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▶️ Pro News Weekly: Bitcoin Plunges as Gold Loses Its Shine

Welcome to Pro News Weekly!

💵 The U.S. dollar is losing momentum as falling oil prices ease inflation concerns and Treasury yields retreat. Markets have scaled back expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, while comments from ECB and Bank of Japan officials are helping rival currencies regain ground.

📊 Stock indices are pulling back as investors question whether the AI-driven rally can continue. Concerns over Federal Reserve policy and the sustainability of technology earnings have sparked profit-taking, although Wall Street remains optimistic, with J.P. Morgan raising its year-end target for the S&P 500.

🪙 Gold has fallen below $4,000 per ounce after the Fed's hawkish stance weakened its appeal as an inflation hedge. ETF outflows have accelerated, while major banks have lowered their gold price forecasts as expectations shift toward higher interest rates.

₿ Bitcoin is under renewed pressure after slipping below $60,000. Billions of dollars have flowed out of crypto ETFs, confidence in major crypto firms continues to weaken, and investors are rotating into other asset classes as digital assets struggle to attract safe-haven demand.

📊 With US labour market data, inflation reports and manufacturing PMIs all due next week, could fresh economic data determine whether markets stabilise or extend their recent declines?

🔔 Like, share, and subscribe for more weekly updates from FxPro!

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Alibaba Group Wave Analysis – 25 June 2026

Alibaba Group: ⬇️ Sell

- Alibaba Group under bearish pressure

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CADJPY Wave Analysis – 25 June 2026

- CADJPY reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 115.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/06/27 (GMT)

12:30 🇺🇸 Goods Trade Balance — Exp: -85.0B Actual: -105.8B

14:00 🇺🇸 UoM Consumer Sentiment — Exp: 48.9 Actual: 49.5


[Updated in real time]

The crypto market has tested the $2T mark

The crypto market capitalisation fell from $2.12T to $2.02T before rebounding to $2.06T, where it had stabilised at the time of writing as active trading began in Europe. Selling pressure intensified after a fresh downward surge in stock indices. This morning, cryptocurrencies again appeared stable or rebounding, but these sentiments will only be tested once active US trading begins. Over the past 24 hours, the top performers among the most liquid coins were AAVE (+5.6%), Solana (+0.7%) and Theta Network (+0.1%). Lagging behind were Algorand (-6.7%), Polkadot (-6.2%) and NEAR Protocol (-6.1%).

Bitcoin approached $58K at its lows late Thursday and early Friday, but in both cases, aggressive buying quickly pushed it back into the $60K range. This pattern resembles margin position liquidations during downtrend spikes, followed by strong buying on pending orders during the recovery. Given deteriorating sentiment among institutional investors and their ability to quickly divest from cryptocurrencies to stabilise their balance sheets, it is worth preparing for continued pressure and periodic sell-off spikes by leveraged traders.

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The dollar: Has it peaked?

The USD index is retreating as the likelihood of a Fed rate hike diminishes.

Gold has lost the ‘debasement trade’ as a key driver and is facing capital outflows from ETFs.

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$4,000: Just a pause, not the end of Gold’s decline

Gold is rebounding at the end of the week after a correction in the odds of two key Fed rate hikes this year. Nevertheless, the price is falling for the fourth consecutive week. Since the second half of the week, bears have been relentlessly trying to push the price below the psychologically significant $4,000 mark but eased their grip on Friday afternoon. At the same time, the long-term moving averages favour sellers, as a ‘death cross’ is looming (when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average), reinforced by the fact that the price is trading below this cross.

On the weekly charts, attempts to push the price back above the 50-week moving average have failed. However, this is also the price support zone from the end of last year, so we can expect a fairly fierce battle around the current level.

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CHFJPY Wave Analysis – 26 June 2026

- CHFJPY reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 202.30

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