Bitcoin is holding above the 50-day MA, while Ethereum has failed

Over the last four days, the crypto market has traded within a very narrow range centred on $2.56 trillion. The market has retreated to the 50-day moving average (MA), which is acting as short-term support despite a rising dollar, falling share prices, and a decline in gold. Among the most popular coins, the day’s leaders were Algorand (+7.1%), Zcash (+2.4%) and Basic Attention (+1.8%). The biggest fallers were Toncoin (-3.9%), Immutable (-3.6%) and Neo (-2.6%).

Bitcoin, as of the end of last month, found support on dips to the $76K region. Over the last couple of days, this support has been reinforced by the 50-day MA, as has the market. On the other hand, resistance at the 200-day MA continues to decline, bringing the bulls’ and bears’ red lines closer together and marking the moment when the market will choose its trend for the coming months.

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Yields are boosting the dollar

Rising Treasury yields are drawing capital away from equities and into the dollar.

Verbal interventions and expectations of a BoJ rate hike have supported the yen.

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A new barrier for oil

The rally in yields could weigh on oil demand.

The US and China are working to keep prices in check.

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🇺🇸 US Pre-Market: Mixed 📊

The US stock market is showing mixed pre-market trading with a slight upward bias: major tech companies are up, while some energy stocks and certain blue-chips are down.

In the Information Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) is up 1.54%, Broadcom (AVGO) is up 1.90%, while Microsoft (MSFT) is down 0.45%.

In the Communication Services sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) is up 0.22%.

In the Energy sector, Exxon Mobil (XOM) is down 1.29%, while Chevron (CVX) is down 1.07%.

The risk balance is shifting toward risk-on on the back of gains by major tech names, limiting interest in the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Support for the dollar remains muted: inflows into Treasuries do not appear dominant, and the short-term dollar trend is likely to stay neutral, with local fluctuations driven by data and Fed expectations.

USDCHF Wave Analysis – 20 May 2026

- USDCHF broke daily Triangle

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.7920

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Palladium Wave Analysis – 20 May 2026

- Palladium reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1450.00

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Amazon Wave Analysis – 20 May 2026

- Amazon reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 276.00

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WTI crude oil Wave Analysis – 20 May 2026

WTI crude oil: ⬇️ Sell

- WTI crude oil reversed from resistance zone

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⚠️ USA — FOMC Meeting Minutes at 18:00 GMT

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/05/21 (GMT)

01:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Employment Change — Exp: 16.7K Actual: -18.6K

01:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.3% Actual: 4.5%

01:30 🇦🇺 Part-Time Employment Change Actual: -10.7K | -7.9K

07:15 🇫🇷 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 52.5 Actual: 48.9

07:15 🇫🇷 Services PMI — Exp: 46.5 Actual: 42.9

07:15 🇫🇷 PMI Composite — Exp: 47.7 Actual: 43.5

07:30 🇩🇪 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 51.0 Actual: 49.9

07:30 🇩🇪 Services PMI — Exp: 47.0 Actual: 47.8

07:30 🇩🇪 PMI Composite — Exp: 48.4 Actual: 48.6

08:00 🇪🇺 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 51.9 Actual: 51.4

08:00 🇪🇺 Services PMI — Exp: 47.7 Actual: 46.4

08:00 🇪🇺 PMI Composite — Exp: 48.8 Actual: 47.5

08:30 🇬🇧 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 53.0 Actual: 53.7

08:30 🇬🇧 Services PMI — Exp: 51.8 Actual: 47.9

08:30 🇬🇧 PMI Composite — Exp: 51.7 Actual: 48.5

09:30 🇪🇺 European Commission Economic Forecasts

12:30 🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims — Exp: 210K Actual: 209K

12:30 🇺🇸 Building Permits — Exp: 1390K Actual: 1442K | 5.8%

12:30 🇺🇸 Housing Starts — Exp: 1410K Actual: 1465K | -2.8%

12:30 🇺🇸 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index — Exp: 17.9 Actual: -0.4

13:45 🇺🇸 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 54.0 Actual: 55.3

13:45 🇺🇸 Services PMI — Exp: 51.0 Actual: 50.9

13:45 🇺🇸 PMI Composite — Exp: 51.8 Actual: 51.7

15:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

22:45 🇳🇿 Retail Sales — Exp: 0.6% | 0.9%

23:30 🇯🇵 ⚡️ National Consumer Price Index

23:30 🇯🇵 National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food — Exp: 1.7%


[Updated in real time]

⚠️ Australia — Employment Change at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 23.3K

🕒 Exp: 16.7K

🎯 Fact.: -18.6K 📉

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⚠️ Australia — Unemployment Rate at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 4.3%

🕒 Exp: 4.3%

🎯 Fact.: 4.5% 📉

The crypto market is creeping upwards across the board

The crypto market capitalisation has risen by 1.3%, reaching $2.59T. The stock market’s return to growth has bolstered appetite for cryptocurrencies, allowing the market to rebound from the 50-day moving average. This could mark the start of a more sustained rally, similar to the one seen in April. Should the uptrend continue, the immediate resistance levels appear to be around $2.7T and $2.8T, where the previous local highs and the 200-day moving average are located, respectively. In terms of 24-hour performance, Zcash is once again leading the pack (+14%), followed by Dash (+8%) and the volatile Toncoin (+6.3%). Performing worse than the rest but still in positive territory are Hedera (+0.1%), Ethereum Classic (+0.2%), and Cardano (+0.4%). This is a good indicator of the breadth of buying in the crypto market.

Bitcoin is trading at $78K, rising for the third day in a row after rebounding from the 50-day moving average and the area of recent local lows. The rebound looks fairly cautious so far. Likely, altcoins are currently attracting some retail buyers, while institutional investors are cautiously selling ETFs ahead of a quieter market and focusing on big tech.

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The Fed calmed the markets down

The FOMC has started discussing rate hikes.

Gold is under pressure amid Russia’s bullion sales.

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▶️ Crude Oil. Current situation

Today is Thursday, the 21st of May, and we're back to discuss the oil market.

I'm going to try to show you what a correction looks like and how to break out of it on the upside.

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🇺🇸 US Pre-Market: Mostly Negative 📉

Negative sentiment is prevailing in the US stock market pre-market, with major technology and consumer companies trading lower, reflecting a flight from risk.

In the Information Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) is down 0.62%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is down 2.59%, while Microsoft (MSFT) is down 0.68%.

In the Communication Services sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) is down 0.24%.

In the Energy sector, Exxon Mobil (XOM) is up 0.49%, while Chevron (CVX) is up 0.35%.

The prevailing pressure on major US shares points to risk-off sentiment within the US market, supporting short-term demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset and for Treasuries, creating moderate potential for USD appreciation.

⚠️ UK — BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks at 15:00 GMT

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/05/22 (GMT)

06:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales With Auto Fuel — Exp: -0.6% | 1.3% Actual: -1.3% | 0.0%

06:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel — Exp: -0.3% | 1.5% Actual: -0.4% | 1.1%

08:00 🇩🇪 Ifo Business Climate — Exp: 84.2 Actual: 84.9

08:00 🇩🇪 IFO - Current Assessment — Exp: 85.1 Actual: 86.1

08:00 🇩🇪 IFO - Expectations — Exp: 83.5 Actual: 83.8

12:30 🇨🇦 Retail Sales — Exp: 0.6% | 0.9% Actual: 0.9% | 1.4%

14:00 🇺🇸 UoM Consumer Sentiment — Exp: 48.2 Actual: 44.8


[Updated in real time]

Tron Wave Analysis – 21 May 2026

- Tron broke key resistance level 0.3525

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.3665

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Apple Wave Analysis – 21 May 2026

- Apple broke resistance zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 310.00

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