Markets return to pre-war levels

The S&P 500 and the pound are trading higher than before the conflict in the Middle East.

European currencies are steadily regaining the ground lost in March.

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⚠️ USA — Producer Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.5% | 3.4%

🕒 Exp: 1.2% | 4.6%

🎯 Fact.: 0.5% 📉 | 4.0% 📉

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⚠️ USA — Core PPI at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.3% | 3.8%

🕒 Exp: 0.4% | 4.2%

🎯 Fact.: 0.1% 📉 | 3.8% 📉

The S&P 500 has recouped its March losses, focus shifts to earnings

The US stock market has returned to pre-war levels, turning a blind eye to the Fed's interest rate hike, the oil crisis, and the threat of stagflation. Brent is trading $30 a barrel above levels before the Middle East conflict, Treasury bond yields are 35 to 40 basis points higher, and traders have all but given up hope that the Fed will cut rates in 2026. Conditions are far worse than at the end of February, yet the S&P 500 is at the same levels.

Expectations of strong corporate earnings, a robust economy and peace in the Middle East underpin the rally in the broad stock index. Despite the continuing uncertainty in the region, investors are buying into rumours of an agreement between the US and Iran. Markets are tired of geopolitics and are switching to fundamentals.

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🇺🇸 US Pre-Market: Mixed 📊

Mixed trading trends are prevailing in the US stock market pre-market, with a slight upward bias.

In the Financials sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is down 1.25%, while Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is down 0.08%.

In the Information Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) is up 0.55%, Broadcom (AVGO) is down 0.75%, while Microsoft (MSFT) is up 1.34%.

In the Communication Services sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) is up 1.15%.

The predominantly positive performance of large-cap technology stocks is creating a moderate risk-on environment, with interest in risky assets within the US remaining strong, while inflows into safe-haven dollar-denominated instruments stay limited. In this scenario, the dollar's performance remains largely neutral and sensitive to further signals regarding Fed rates and global capital flows.

⚠️ UK — BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks at 16:00 GMT

▶️ Pro News Flash: S&P 500 Rebounds Despite Rising Risks

🟢 The S&P 500 has rebounded to pre-war levels, shrugging off rising interest rates, elevated oil prices and persistent stagflation concerns. Despite worsening macro conditions, equities continue to show resilience.

📉 Market fundamentals remain mixed. Brent Crude is trading significantly higher, while US Treasury yields have surged and expectations for rate cuts in 2026 have largely faded.

📊 Investors are shifting focus away from geopolitics and toward corporate performance. Strong earnings expectations and optimism around a potential US–Iran agreement are fueling the rally.

📈 Wall Street forecasts point to continued strength, with S&P 500 earnings per share expected to grow for a sixth consecutive quarter. Positive corporate guidance is also reaching its highest levels in years.

🌍 The US economy remains steady. Growth forecasts are largely unchanged, supported by productivity gains and advancements in artificial intelligence, helping sustain confidence despite global uncertainty.

💡 Valuations are becoming more attractive. Following the March correction, equities appear undervalued, encouraging renewed buying interest across the market.

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Meta Wave Analysis – 14 April 2026

- Meta broke round resistance level 600.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 670.00

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Nvidia Wave Analysis – 14 April 2026

- Nvidia broke round resistance level 600.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 670.00

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Morgan Stanley Wave Analysis – 14 April 2026

Morgan Stanley: ⬆️ Buy

- Morgan Stanley broke resistance level 177.40

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China A50 Wave Analysis – 14 April 2026

China A50 Index: ⬆️ Buy

- China A50 Index broke resistance level 15000.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/04/15 (GMT)

12:30 🇺🇸 Empire State Manufacturing Index — Exp: 0.6 Actual: 11.0

14:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories — Exp: 2100K Actual: -913K

15:50 🇬🇧 BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

17:00 🇨🇭 SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel Speaks

17:00 🇳🇿 RBNZ Governor Anna Breman Speaks

18:00 🇬🇧 BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

19:30 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Crypto stalls as risk appetite shows cracks

The crypto market capitalisation fell by 0.74% over the past 24 hours to $2.5 trillion. Today’s top performers include Immutable (+3.2%), SushiSwap (+0.8%) and Tron (+0.7%). The underperformers were Dash (−5.4%), Toncoin (−4.5%) and NEAR Protocol (−4.4%). The crypto market took a step back, despite further gains in stock indices. From its local low at the end of March, the crypto market has risen by 8.6%, a more modest increase than the Nasdaq 100’s 13.6%.

Bitcoin briefly rose above $76K on Tuesday, almost matching March’s peak levels, but had retreated to $73.6K at the time of writing. Buyers are looking for a catalyst to push the price to a new level beyond the consolidation range. If Bitcoin is looking for external signals, it may remain indecisive until key US stock indices hit new highs. However, we are more inclined to believe that the first cryptocurrency’s stagnation is a sign of a fragile risk appetite that will soon manifest in the broader market.

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The euro sees no obstacles to growth

Global risk appetite and monetary policy divergence are driving gains in EURUSD.

The Bank of Japan gave no signal of a rate hike in April.

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🇺🇸 US Pre-Market: Moderately Positive 📈

The US stock market is showing a moderate risk-on trend in pre-market trading, with major companies in the technology and consumer sectors mostly trading in positive territory, supporting risk appetite.

In the Information Technology sector, Microsoft (MSFT) is up 0.96%, Oracle (ORCL) is up 1.64%, while NVIDIA (NVDA) is down 0.42% and Broadcom (AVGO) is up 2.26%.

In the Consumer Discretionary sector, Amazon (AMZN) is up 0.19%, while in the Consumer Staples sector, Walmart (WMT) is down 0.25%.

The predominance of gains among large-cap technology and consumer companies points to a slight shift toward risk-on sentiment within the US market. In these conditions, demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset appears subdued: support from flows into Treasuries is limited, and short-term USD dynamics are likely to remain neutral, with risks of slight weakening against currencies where investors see higher return potential.

Rumours drive oil markets and ignore the facts

Unprecedented supply disruptions are not leading to record crude oil prices.

Investors are selling Brent and WTI on news of the US-Iran de-escalation.

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Uber Wave Analysis – 15 April 2026

- Uber reversed from round support level 70.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 78.75

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Tesla Wave Analysis – 15 April 2026

- Tesla broke down channels

- Likely to rise to resistance level 400.00

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Baidu Wave Analysis – 15 April 2026

- Baidu broke daily down channel

- Likely to rise to resistance level 127.00

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Airbnb Wave Analysis – 15 April 2026

- Airbnb broke daily Triangle

- Likely to rise to resistance level 138.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/04/16 (GMT)

01:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Employment Change — Exp: 20.0K Actual: 17.9K

01:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.3% Actual: 4.3%

01:30 🇦🇺 Part-Time Employment Change Actual: 52.5K | -34.6K

02:00 🇨🇳 ⚡️ Real GDP — Exp: 4.8% Actual: 5.0%

02:00 🇨🇳 ⚡️ Real GDP (YTD) — Exp: 4.8% Actual: 5.0%

02:00 🇨🇳 Fixed Asset Investment — Exp: 1.9% Actual: 1.7%

02:00 🇨🇳 Industrial Production — Exp: 5.3% | 5.8% Actual: 5.7% | 6.1%

02:00 🇨🇳 NBS Press Conference

06:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.1% | 0.2% Actual: 0.5% | 0.5%

06:00 🇬🇧 Industrial Production — Exp: 0.2% | -0.9% Actual: 0.5% | -0.4%

06:00 🇬🇧 Manufacturing Production — Exp: 0.3% | -0.3% Actual: -0.1% | -0.5%

06:00 🇬🇧 Goods Trade Balance — Exp: -19.4B Actual: -18.8B

09:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 2.5% Actual: 2.6%

09:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index - Core — Exp: 2.3% Actual: 2.3%

11:30 🇪🇺 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 213K Actual: 207K

12:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1810K Actual: 1818K

12:30 🇺🇸 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index — Exp: 10.5 Actual: 26.7

13:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production — Exp: 0.1% Actual: -0.5%


[Updated in real time]