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⚠️ USA β€” Non-Farm Employment Change at 03:00 GMT

βœ”οΈ Prev: -133K

πŸ•’ Exp: 65K

🎯 Fact.: 178K πŸ“ˆ

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⚠️ USA β€” Unemployment Rate at 03:00 GMT

βœ”οΈ Prev: 4.4%

πŸ•’ Exp: 4.4%

🎯 Fact.: 4.3% πŸ“ˆ
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Gold: the three-year rally may not be over yet

The Middle East conflict is weighing on gold prices amid expectations that central banks will raise interest rates to address rising inflation driven by oil prices. This seems like a knee-jerk reaction, as this is precisely how central banks acted in 2022. Moreover, it is widely acknowledged that this was a belated response. Another factor working against gold is the reduction in gold purchases, as well as the sale of gold from reserves to support national currencies, as India and Turkey have been doing recently. It is possible that many others are doing the same, but we are not yet aware.

This is a rather short-sighted approach, as current fuel prices are a shock to consumers, and this will be followed by a shock to the economy, requiring monetary policy to be eased, not tightened. However, we first need to hear that central banks share this view; for now, they remain focused on inflation.

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▢️ Pro News Weekly: Chaos Rising… But Stocks Keep Climbing

Welcome to Pro News Weekly!

πŸ’΅ U.S. dollar regains strength as escalating Middle East tensions and oil supply risks boost safe-haven demand, reversing recent euro gains and fueling market volatility.

πŸ“Š U.S. stock indices stay elevated as investors chase momentum and fear missing out on a post-conflict rally, despite growing geopolitical uncertainty and late-week sell-offs.

πŸͺ™ Gold turns volatile after a sharp surge, then retreats amid mixed signals on conflict escalation, though long-term forecasts remain bullish on central bank demand.

β‚Ώ Bitcoin struggles to break out of its range as crypto whales increase selling pressure, with geopolitical developments and risk sentiment driving short-term downside risks.

Will escalating conflict and oil disruptions continue to support the dollar, or could easing tensions and upcoming economic data shift momentum across global markets?

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US Dollar: holds above 100.00, awaits the US GDP and CPI

The US Dollar consolidates at the end of the week, trimming some of its earlier losses after a stellar Nonfarm Payrolls report, maintaining the US Dollar Index above the 100.00 milestone. March data showed the US economy added 178K to the workforce, exceeding economists' forecasts of 60K. Although the headline suggests the labour market is strong, traders should treat the data with a pinch of salt, as last month’s initial number was -92K, but the data was revised down to -133K, one of the largest falls since Covid.

Overall, the US jobs market added 68K people over the first three months, a relief for the Federal Reserve, which noted that the risks under the dual mandate were balanced between employment and inflation. Now, the focus can turn to inflation driven higher by the energy shock from the Middle East conflict, and the risks of it getting out of control increase the chances of a stagflationary scenario.

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FxPro pinned Β«πŸ—“ Economic Calendar at 2026/04/04 (GMT) 14:00 πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί Daylight Saving Time Shift 16:00 πŸ‡³πŸ‡Ώ Daylight Saving Time Shift [Updated in real time]Β»
FxPro pinned Β«πŸ—“ Economic Calendar at 2026/04/05 (GMT) 09:00 All OPEC-JMMC Meetings [Updated in real time]Β»
FxPro pinned Β«πŸ—“ Economic Calendar at 2026/04/06 (GMT) 14:00 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ ISM Services PMI β€” Exp: 54.8 Actual: 54.0 [Updated in real time]Β»
Bitcoin and Ethereum: Prolonged consolidation in focus

The crypto market capitalisation has recovered to $2.38 trillion, rising by around 2.5% over the past 24 hours β€” most assets on the watchlist are trading in positive territory. Today’s top performers include Avalanche (+6.6%), Cardano (+5.0%) and Ethereum (+3.8%). Among the few underperformers are IOTA (βˆ’1.3%), VeChain (βˆ’0.9%) and Bitcoin Cash (βˆ’0.6%).

Bitcoin has risen again to $69K, confirming the support seen over the last three months amid consolidation following the downturn. A slight upward tilt in the bullish trend should not lead to undue optimism, as a similar pattern was observed for two months leading up to the end of January, followed by a fresh downward momentum. A repeat of this pattern this time suggests a decline to $50K.

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⚠️ USA β€” ISM Services PMI at 03:00 GMT

βœ”οΈ Prev: 56.1

πŸ•’ Exp: 54.8

🎯 Fact.: 54.0 πŸ“‰