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Crypto: a rebound amid extreme fear

The crypto market capitalisation has increased by 1.3% to $2.35T over the past 24 hours, recovering to last Friday’s levels. This time, cryptocurrencies struggled to keep pace with equities, where technical oversold conditions, quarterly rebalancing, and positive signals regarding the US-Iran conflict coincided.

Algorand stands out as the day’s leader, gaining over 22% amidst general market stagnation, whilst Zcash and Neo showed more modest but noticeable growth of between 4% and 7%. TRON, Bitcoin Cash, and Toncoin, which lost less than 1.5%, stand out against the predominantly green market with this moderate decline.

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⚠️ USA β€” ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 03:00 GMT

βœ”οΈ Prev: 66K

πŸ•’ Exp: 41K

🎯 Fact.: 62K πŸ“ˆ
⚠️ USA β€” Retail Sales at 03:00 GMT

βœ”οΈ Prev: -0.2% | 0.0%

πŸ•’ Exp: 0.5% | 0.3%

🎯 Fact.: 0.6% πŸ“ˆ | 0.5% πŸ“ˆ
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ US market: Mostly positive πŸ“ˆ

Gains in major technology and consumer companies are outweighing weakness in the energy sector, leading to moderate risk appetite.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are up +1.04%, whilst Broadcom (AVGO) shares are up +1.54%.

In the Technology Services sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) shares are up +1.16%, whilst Microsoft (MSFT) shares are up +1.33%.

In the Energy & Minerals sector, Exxon Mobil (XOM) shares are down -2.51%, whilst Chevron (CVX) shares are down -1.98%.

From a currency market perspective, the prevalence of demand for major technology and consumer companies points to a risk-on environment within the US. In this scenario, the dollar is used to a lesser extent as a safe-haven asset: capital inflows into US equities support interest in dollar-denominated assets, but limit the potential for a sharp appreciation of the exchange rate. In the short term, this creates a neutral-to-moderate backdrop for the dollar, unless additional factors from the Fed or external demand alter the balance of risks.
⚠️ USA β€” ISM Manufacturing PMI at 03:00 GMT

βœ”οΈ Prev: 52.4

πŸ•’ Exp: 52.3

🎯 Fact.: 52.7 πŸ“ˆ
πŸ—“ Economic Calendar at 2026/04/02 (GMT)

01:00 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ President Donald Trump Speaks

06:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡­ Consumer Price Index β€” Exp: 0.5% | 0.5% Actual: 0.2% | 0.3%

12:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ Unemployment Claims β€” Exp: 212K Actual: 202K

12:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Continuing Claims β€” Exp: 1840K Actual: 1841K

12:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Trade Balance β€” Exp: -60.5B Actual: -57.3B

12:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Trade Balance β€” Exp: -2.5B Actual: -5.7B


[Updated in real time]
FxPro pinned Β«πŸ—“ Economic Calendar at 2026/04/02 (GMT) 01:00 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ President Donald Trump Speaks 06:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡­ Consumer Price Index β€” Exp: 0.5% | 0.5% Actual: 0.2% | 0.3% 12:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ Unemployment Claims β€” Exp: 212K Actual: 202K 12:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Continuing Claims β€” Exp: 1840K…»
⚠️ USA β€” President Donald Trump Speaks at 01:00 GMT
The crypto market has lost 3% but has not broken through support

The crypto market has lost approximately 3% of its market capitalisation, falling back to $2.29T and returning to the lower boundary of the trading range seen over the last seven days. Trump’s latest comments on the war with Iran triggered a sharp sell-off amid a lack of de-escalation signs. TRON (βˆ’0.2%), Toncoin (βˆ’0.9%) and Neo (βˆ’1.3%) appear relatively stable. Dash (βˆ’8.6%), Uniswap (βˆ’8.0%) and Solana (βˆ’5.9%) have been hit hardest.

The Fear and Greed Index rose by 4 points today to 12, partially recovering from yesterday’s drop to 8 β€” the lowest level in recent weeks. Nevertheless, the index remains deep in the extreme fear zone, where it has been virtually uninterrupted for the past month.

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The dollar has regained the upper hand

Following Trump’s speech, markets are bracing for an escalation over Iran.

Japan’s failure with currency interventions could push USDJPY to 175.

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⚠️ USA β€” Unemployment Claims at 03:00 GMT

βœ”οΈ Prev: 211K

πŸ•’ Exp: 212K

🎯 Fact.: 202K πŸ“ˆ
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ US Pre-Market: Mostly Negative πŸ“‰

Major technology and consumer companies are trading lower, signalling heightened risk aversion.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) is down –2.73%, while Apple (AAPL) is off –0.91%.

In the Technology Services sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) is down –2.79%, while Microsoft (MSFT) is off –1.22%.

In the Energy sector, Exxon Mobil (XOM) is up +2.81%, while Chevron (CVX) is up +2.51%.

From a currency market perspective, the broad-based decline among major equities is reinforcing a risk-off environment. Against this backdrop, demand for safe-haven dollar assets is receiving short-term support, providing a favourable backdrop for a modest dollar strengthening, absent signs of large-scale capital outflows from US assets.
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