Nikkei 225 Wave Analysis – 23 March 2026

Nikkei 225: ⬆️ Buy

- Nikkei 225 reversed from support zone

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Gold Wave Analysis – 23 March 2026

- Gold reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 4655.00

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Crypto again attempts to break the downtrend

The crypto market cap has increased by nearly 4% over the past 24 hours, remaining near the high reached after Trump announced talks with Iran. This outperforms most related markets, where initial momentum has waned. Among the major coins, the relatively smaller Aptos (+15%), Filecoin (+10%), and Toncoin (+7.4%) are performing better than others. Monero (-2%) and Polkadot (+1%) are underperforming. Meanwhile, the crypto market has been trading around its 50-day moving average for the past 10 days, with a few attempts to move above it.

Bitcoin has risen by more than 4.5%, staying just below $71K. Although the leading cryptocurrency did not immediately capitalise on the upward momentum and extend its gains, simply remaining at these high levels now suggests confidence among the bulls. They are gradually developing a more optimistic outlook. However, it would be premature to declare the end of the downtrend until prices settle above $75K, where the March pivot points and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the January-February decline are concentrated.

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The dollar has retreated in the face of Trump

Rumours of US-Iran talks have sent the EURUSD up 1.2%.

Oil is unlikely to return to pre-war levels.

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TACO knocks Brent down

Brent plunged by 14% right after Donald Trump’s statement that the US would not bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days and that Tehran is in talks with the US. Investors have adopted the ‘TACO’ or ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’ trading strategy, which gained popularity after the White House introduced tariffs on America’s Liberation Day. It helped propel the S&P 500 up by 37% by the end of 2025, following 12% slump days after the announcement.

Crude Oil fell thanks to TACO. According to the Vitol Group, traders continue to bet that the conflict in the Middle East will end sooner rather than later. At the same time, every additional week of the Strait of Hormuz blockade deprives the black gold market of 70 million barrels. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the world’s largest oil artery will be virtually closed for six weeks, followed by a month of full restoration of transport flows. Under this scenario, the market will be short of 800 million barrels.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market: Mostly negative 📉

Most shares are in the red, particularly among the largest technology and financial companies by market capitalisation.

In the Financials sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are down by -0.15%, whilst JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are down by -0.82%.

In the technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are down 0.46%, whilst Broadcom (AVGO) shares are down 1.09%.

In the Consumer Durables sector, Tesla (TSLA) shares are down by -0.67%, whilst in the Retail sector, Amazon (AMZN) shares are down by -0.59%.

Given the weak performance of the most liquid stocks, risk-off sentiment is prevailing within the US market: demand is shifting towards safer dollar-denominated assets and Treasury bonds. This is providing local support for the dollar and dampening interest in riskier currencies, whilst market participants assess the outlook for corporate earnings and the Fed’s future interest rate decisions.

▶️ Pro News Flash: The Oil Market Just Got Exposed

🛢️ The oil market is showing signs of unusual activity as geopolitical tensions and strategic messaging shake investor confidence. A sharp drop in Brent crude followed comments from Donald Trump suggesting a pause in escalation with Iran, triggering what traders call the “TACO” effect.

📉 Investors are increasingly betting on de-escalation, with major players like Vitol Group positioning for lower prices. But beneath the surface, supply risks remain significant, especially with disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.

⚠️ According to Goldman Sachs, a prolonged blockage could remove hundreds of millions of barrels from global supply, creating a severe imbalance. Even a temporary disruption could have long-lasting effects on oil flows and pricing.

📊 Major institutions like Societe Generale and ANZ Research expect prices to remain elevated for months, while Macquarie warns oil could spike as high as $150 if tensions persist.

🌍 Geopolitical risks are rising further, with Saudi Arabia potentially entering the conflict, adding another layer of uncertainty to global markets. At the same time, Iran denies any negotiations, accusing the US of manipulating oil prices.

📈 With supply shocks, political tensions, and market positioning all colliding, oil could be setting up for a major move that catches investors off guard.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/03/25 (GMT)

00:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Consumer Prices Index — Exp: 0.0% | 3.8% Actual: 0.0% | 3.7%

00:30 🇦🇺 RBA Trimmed Mean CPI — Exp: 0.3% | 3.4% Actual: 0.2% | 3.3%

00:30 🇦🇺 RBA Weighted Median Actual: 0.2% | 3.5%

07:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.4% | 3.0% Actual: 0.4% | 3.0%

07:00 🇬🇧 Core CPI — Exp: 3.1% Actual: 3.2%

07:00 🇬🇧 Retail Price Index — Exp: 0.5% | 3.7% Actual: 0.4% | 3.6%

07:00 🇬🇧 Producer Price Index Input — Exp: 0.5% | 0.4% Actual: 0.7% | 0.5%

08:45 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

09:00 🇩🇪 Ifo Business Climate — Exp: 86.1 Actual: 86.4

09:00 🇩🇪 IFO - Current Assessment — Exp: 86.0 Actual: 86.7

09:00 🇩🇪 IFO - Expectations — Exp: 86.0 Actual: 86.0

14:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories — Exp: -1400K Actual: 6926K


[Updated in real time]

FTSE 100 Wave Analysis – 23 March 2026

FTSE 100: ⬆️ Buy

- FTSE 100 reversed from support zone

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Silver Wave Analysis – 23 March 2026

- Silver reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 75.30

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⚠️ Australia — Consumer Prices Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.4% | 3.8%

🕒 Exp: 0.0% | 3.8%

🎯 Fact.: 0.0% | 3.7% 📉

⚠️ UK — Consumer Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: -0.5% | 3.0%

🕒 Exp: 0.4% | 3.0%

🎯 Fact.: 0.4% | 3.0%

The crypto market is laying the ground for growth

The crypto market cap has increased by 0.3% over the past 24 hours to $2.43 trillion. The market’s ability to hold at recent highs while maintaining low volatility is a sign of buyer confidence and readiness for a further rally. Conversely, bears may be merely allowing these fluctuations for now, as the market remains within a correctional rebound pattern following the collapse two months ago. A move above $2.5T will be necessary before we can consider a bullish breakthrough and evaluate the prospects of a recovery to $3–3.3T.

Bitcoin is trading near $71K, encountering resistance for the sixth consecutive day as it attempts to climb above $71.5K. However, this seems to be a short-term setback, considering the pattern of higher local lows since early February. Additionally, the 50-day moving average over the past two months has dropped from $90K to $70K, lowering the barrier that bulls need to overcome to signal a trend reversal.

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The currency market awaits negotiations

The global economy is heading towards 1970s-style stagflation.

EURUSD depends on US-Iran talks.

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🇺🇸 US market: Mostly positive 📈

Major technology and consumer companies are mostly trading higher, setting a general risk-on mood.

In the Financials sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are up +0.72%, whilst Wells Fargo (WFC) shares are up +1.40%.

In the technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are up +1.30%, whilst Micron Technology (MU) shares are down -1.62%.

In the Technology Services sector, Microsoft (MSFT) shares are up +1.04%, whilst Oracle (ORCL) shares are up +1.18%.

With the current shift in demand towards riskier assets, including the largest US technology and consumer companies, short-term support for the safe-haven dollar is limited: investor interest is focused on equities, whilst the currency’s dynamics remain largely neutral, with no clear momentum towards strengthening or weakening.

Oil faces falling volatility, but unlikely prices

The US is offering Iran negotiations.

Without dialogue, we must be prepared for an escalation.

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EURUSD Wave Analysis – 25 March 2026

- EURUSD reversed from resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 1.1450

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USDCAD Wave Analysis – 25 March 2026

- USDCAD broke resistance area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3900

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Toncoin Wave Analysis – 25 March 2026

- Toncoin broke daily Triangle

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3860

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Platinum Wave Analysis – 25 March 2026

- Platinum reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 2030.0

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