The euro received a boost from the ECB

The ECB’s willingness to raise rates helped the EUR/USD pair.

The fall in oil prices put pressure on the US dollar.

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Gold has failed the test

Oil prices might be higher for longer.

The gold bubble has burst.

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The crypto market reacted positively to the shift in sentiment

The crypto market continued to slide over the weekend as demand for risky assets decreased. This gloomy tone was reversed by Trump’s announcement that strikes on Iran’s energy sector would be halted, causing a sharp turnaround in market sentiment. It is important to note that, this time, cryptocurrencies are reacting very positively to good news and rather sluggishly to bad news. This change occurred in mid-March; before that, we saw only a moderate response to negative news, while potentially good news went almost unnoticed.

By Monday, the sentiment index had fallen into negative territory, dropping to 8. Currently, the situation in the crypto market does not appear as severe as it did at the end of February, when sentiment was at the same level.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market: Mostly positive 📈

Most shares, particularly those of the largest tech companies by market capitalisation, are trading with significant gains.

In the technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are up +2.52%, whilst Apple (AAPL) shares are up +1.93%.

In the Financials sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are up +2.42%, whilst Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are up +0.73%.

In the Technology Services sector, Microsoft (MSFT) shares are up +0.56%, whilst Alphabet (GOOGL) shares are up +1.33%.

The stock market is showing a pronounced risk-on sentiment, with strong demand for major technology and financial stocks. In this environment, investor interest is shifting from defensive dollar-denominated assets to riskier ones, which limits the potential for the dollar to strengthen and creates a rather neutral or slightly subdued backdrop for its exchange rate in the short term.

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/03/24 (GMT)

08:15 🇫🇷 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 49.4 Actual: 50.2

08:15 🇫🇷 Services PMI — Exp: 49.2 Actual: 48.3

08:15 🇫🇷 PMI Composite — Exp: 49.3 Actual: 48.3

08:30 🇩🇪 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 49.8 Actual: 51.7

08:30 🇩🇪 Services PMI — Exp: 52.5 Actual: 51.2

08:30 🇩🇪 PMI Composite — Exp: 51.8 Actual: 51.9

09:00 🇪🇺 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 49.4 Actual: 51.4

09:00 🇪🇺 Services PMI — Exp: 51.1 Actual: 50.1

09:00 🇪🇺 PMI Composite — Exp: 51.1 Actual: 50.5

09:30 🇬🇧 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 50.0 Actual: 51.4

09:30 🇬🇧 Services PMI — Exp: 52.8 Actual: 51.2

09:30 🇬🇧 PMI Composite — Exp: 52.8 Actual: 51.0

13:45 🇺🇸 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 51.5 Actual: 52.4

13:45 🇺🇸 Services PMI — Exp: 52.0 Actual: 51.1

13:45 🇺🇸 PMI Composite — Exp: 51.9 Actual: 51.4

17:00 🇨🇭 Vice Chairman of the Governing Board Martin Schlegel Speaks


[Updated in real time]

GBPAUD Wave Analysis – 23 March 2026

- GBPAUD reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.9270

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AUDNZD Wave Analysis – 23 March 2026

- AUDNZD broke support zone

- Likely to fall to support level 1.1840

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Nikkei 225 Wave Analysis – 23 March 2026

Nikkei 225: ⬆️ Buy

- Nikkei 225 reversed from support zone

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Gold Wave Analysis – 23 March 2026

- Gold reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 4655.00

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Crypto again attempts to break the downtrend

The crypto market cap has increased by nearly 4% over the past 24 hours, remaining near the high reached after Trump announced talks with Iran. This outperforms most related markets, where initial momentum has waned. Among the major coins, the relatively smaller Aptos (+15%), Filecoin (+10%), and Toncoin (+7.4%) are performing better than others. Monero (-2%) and Polkadot (+1%) are underperforming. Meanwhile, the crypto market has been trading around its 50-day moving average for the past 10 days, with a few attempts to move above it.

Bitcoin has risen by more than 4.5%, staying just below $71K. Although the leading cryptocurrency did not immediately capitalise on the upward momentum and extend its gains, simply remaining at these high levels now suggests confidence among the bulls. They are gradually developing a more optimistic outlook. However, it would be premature to declare the end of the downtrend until prices settle above $75K, where the March pivot points and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the January-February decline are concentrated.

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The dollar has retreated in the face of Trump

Rumours of US-Iran talks have sent the EURUSD up 1.2%.

Oil is unlikely to return to pre-war levels.

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TACO knocks Brent down

Brent plunged by 14% right after Donald Trump’s statement that the US would not bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days and that Tehran is in talks with the US. Investors have adopted the ‘TACO’ or ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’ trading strategy, which gained popularity after the White House introduced tariffs on America’s Liberation Day. It helped propel the S&P 500 up by 37% by the end of 2025, following 12% slump days after the announcement.

Crude Oil fell thanks to TACO. According to the Vitol Group, traders continue to bet that the conflict in the Middle East will end sooner rather than later. At the same time, every additional week of the Strait of Hormuz blockade deprives the black gold market of 70 million barrels. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the world’s largest oil artery will be virtually closed for six weeks, followed by a month of full restoration of transport flows. Under this scenario, the market will be short of 800 million barrels.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market: Mostly negative 📉

Most shares are in the red, particularly among the largest technology and financial companies by market capitalisation.

In the Financials sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are down by -0.15%, whilst JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are down by -0.82%.

In the technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are down 0.46%, whilst Broadcom (AVGO) shares are down 1.09%.

In the Consumer Durables sector, Tesla (TSLA) shares are down by -0.67%, whilst in the Retail sector, Amazon (AMZN) shares are down by -0.59%.

Given the weak performance of the most liquid stocks, risk-off sentiment is prevailing within the US market: demand is shifting towards safer dollar-denominated assets and Treasury bonds. This is providing local support for the dollar and dampening interest in riskier currencies, whilst market participants assess the outlook for corporate earnings and the Fed’s future interest rate decisions.

▶️ Pro News Flash: The Oil Market Just Got Exposed

🛢️ The oil market is showing signs of unusual activity as geopolitical tensions and strategic messaging shake investor confidence. A sharp drop in Brent crude followed comments from Donald Trump suggesting a pause in escalation with Iran, triggering what traders call the “TACO” effect.

📉 Investors are increasingly betting on de-escalation, with major players like Vitol Group positioning for lower prices. But beneath the surface, supply risks remain significant, especially with disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.

⚠️ According to Goldman Sachs, a prolonged blockage could remove hundreds of millions of barrels from global supply, creating a severe imbalance. Even a temporary disruption could have long-lasting effects on oil flows and pricing.

📊 Major institutions like Societe Generale and ANZ Research expect prices to remain elevated for months, while Macquarie warns oil could spike as high as $150 if tensions persist.

🌍 Geopolitical risks are rising further, with Saudi Arabia potentially entering the conflict, adding another layer of uncertainty to global markets. At the same time, Iran denies any negotiations, accusing the US of manipulating oil prices.

📈 With supply shocks, political tensions, and market positioning all colliding, oil could be setting up for a major move that catches investors off guard.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/03/25 (GMT)

00:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Consumer Prices Index — Exp: 0.0% | 3.8% Actual: 0.0% | 3.7%

00:30 🇦🇺 RBA Trimmed Mean CPI — Exp: 0.3% | 3.4% Actual: 0.2% | 3.3%

00:30 🇦🇺 RBA Weighted Median Actual: 0.2% | 3.5%

07:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.4% | 3.0% Actual: 0.4% | 3.0%

07:00 🇬🇧 Core CPI — Exp: 3.1% Actual: 3.2%

07:00 🇬🇧 Retail Price Index — Exp: 0.5% | 3.7% Actual: 0.4% | 3.6%

07:00 🇬🇧 Producer Price Index Input — Exp: 0.5% | 0.4% Actual: 0.7% | 0.5%

08:45 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

09:00 🇩🇪 Ifo Business Climate — Exp: 86.1 Actual: 86.4

09:00 🇩🇪 IFO - Current Assessment — Exp: 86.0 Actual: 86.7

09:00 🇩🇪 IFO - Expectations — Exp: 86.0 Actual: 86.0

14:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories — Exp: -1400K Actual: 6926K


[Updated in real time]

FTSE 100 Wave Analysis – 23 March 2026

FTSE 100: ⬆️ Buy

- FTSE 100 reversed from support zone

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Silver Wave Analysis – 23 March 2026

- Silver reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 75.30

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⚠️ Australia — Consumer Prices Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.4% | 3.8%

🕒 Exp: 0.0% | 3.8%

🎯 Fact.: 0.0% | 3.7% 📉

⚠️ UK — Consumer Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: -0.5% | 3.0%

🕒 Exp: 0.4% | 3.0%

🎯 Fact.: 0.4% | 3.0%