Oil market braces for prolonged supply shock

Strategic reserves and the re-routing of supplies are keeping Brent prices in check.

The longer the conflict in the Middle East lasts, the greater the risk of rising oil prices.

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⚠️ USA — FOMC Rate Decision at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 3.75%

🕒 Exp: 3.75%

🎯 Fact.: 3.75%

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⚠️ USA — FOMC Press Conference at 18:30 GMT

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/03/19 (GMT)

00:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Employment Change — Exp: 20.8K Actual: 48.9K

00:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.1% Actual: 4.3%

00:30 🇦🇺 Part-Time Employment Change Actual: -30.5K | 79.4K

02:46 🇯🇵 ⚡️ Overnight Call Rate — Exp: 0.75% Actual: 0.75%

02:46 🇯🇵 ⚡️ Monetary Policy Statement

06:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Press Conference

07:00 🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change — Exp: 25.8K Actual: 24.7K

07:00 🇬🇧 Unemployment Rate — Exp: 5.3% Actual: 5.2%

07:00 🇬🇧 Average Earnings Index — Exp: 3.9% | 4.0% Actual: 3.9% | 3.8%

08:30 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Policy Rate — Exp: 0.00% Actual: 0.00%

08:30 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

09:00 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Press Conference

12:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Bank of England Interest Rate Decision — Exp: 3.75% Actual: 3.75%

12:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ MPC Official Bank Rate Votes — Exp: 0-2-7 Actual: 0-0-9

12:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Monetary Policy Summary

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 215K Actual: 205K

12:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1850K Actual: 1857K

12:30 🇺🇸 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index — Exp: 8.3 Actual: 18.1

13:15 🇪🇺 ⚡️ ECB Interest Rate Decision — Exp: 2.15% Actual: 2.15%

13:15 🇪🇺 Deposit Facility Rate — Exp: 2.00% Actual: 2.00%

13:15 🇪🇺 Marginal lending facility — Exp: 2.40% Actual: 2.40%

13:15 🇪🇺 ⚡️ Monetary Policy Statement

13:45 🇪🇺 ⚡️ ECB Press Conference

14:00 🇺🇸 New Home Sales — Exp: 722K Actual: 587K | -17.6%

21:45 🇳🇿 Trade Balance — Exp: -740M


[Updated in real time]

⚠️ New Zealand — Gross Domestic Product at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 1.1% | 1.3%

🕒 Exp: 0.4% | 1.7%

🎯 Fact.: 0.2% 📉 | 1.3% 📉

⚠️ Australia — Employment Change at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 26.1K

🕒 Exp: 20.8K

🎯 Fact.: 48.9K 📈

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⚠️ Australia — Unemployment Rate at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 4.1%

🕒 Exp: 4.1%

🎯 Fact.: 4.3% 📉

⚠️ Japan — Overnight Call Rate at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.75%

🕒 Exp: 0.75%

🎯 Fact.: 0.75%

———

⚠️ USA — FOMC Press Conference at 06:30 GMT

⚠️ Switzerland — SNB Policy Rate at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.00%

🕒 Exp: 0.00%

🎯 Fact.: 0.00%

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⚠️ Switzerland — SNB Press Conference at 09:00 GMT

Crypto: the bulls may have their horns broken

The crypto market cap has fallen to $2.42 trillion, under pressure from sellers alongside risk assets, as the Fed pushes the next rate cut further into the future, boosting the dollar’s appeal. The decline also coincided with the upper boundary of the corrective rebound being touched. It is possible that cryptocurrencies were simply unable to ignore the significant deterioration in external sentiment, but they may soon return to outperforming other assets. Overall, however, we maintain a more pessimistic view, anticipating the bear market will continue, with bulls likely to be beaten soon, not least due to macro factors.

Bitcoin has fallen by 8.4% from its latest peak on Tuesday morning and briefly dipped below $70K at the start of the day on Thursday. At these levels, BTC is testing the 50-day moving average from above. As we have repeatedly warned previously, the upward momentum will face significant resistance at the boundary of a typical correction from the latest downward impulse. The leading cryptocurrency has more room to move within the $65K–$75K range. Breaking out of this range may require more momentum to determine the market’s direction for the coming days or weeks.

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The dollar is back on the offensive

The Fed’s intention to keep rates steady is helping the greenback.

The Bank of Japan's measured tone has helped steady the yen, preventing a sharper selloff.

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⚠️ UK — Bank of England Interest Rate Decision at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 3.75%

🕒 Exp: 3.75%

🎯 Fact.: 3.75%

———

⚠️ UK — MPC Official Bank Rate Votes at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0-4-5

🕒 Exp: 0-2-7

🎯 Fact.: 0-0-9 📈

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⚠️ USA — Unemployment Claims at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 213K

🕒 Exp: 215K

🎯 Fact.: 205K 📈

⚠️ EU — ECB Interest Rate Decision at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 2.15%

🕒 Exp: 2.15%

🎯 Fact.: 2.15%

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🇺🇸 US pre-market: Mostly negative 📉

Major technology and consumer companies are trading lower, indicating a decline in risk appetite.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are down by -0.81%, whilst Apple (AAPL) shares are hovering around the zero mark, gaining just +0.02%.

In the Technology Services sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) shares are down -0.66%, whilst Microsoft (MSFT) shares are down -0.27%.

In the Consumer Durables sector, Tesla (TSLA) is down by -1.32%, whilst in the Retail sector, Amazon (AMZN) shares are under pressure, falling by approximately -0.20%.

The correction is affecting the largest-cap companies, with pre-market trading reflecting risk aversion within the US market. In this environment, demand for safe-haven dollar assets, including US Treasury bonds, may rise moderately, which supports the dollar and limits its weakness against major currencies until there are signals of a softening in Fed policy or signs of a sustained reversal in risk appetite.

⚠️ EU — ECB Press Conference at 13:45 GMT

The S&P 500 is declining, but not too scared

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the acceleration in producer prices in December, and the Fed’s intention to keep rates high for a long time are forcing US stock indices into a correction. This combination of factors paints a stagflationary picture for the US economy, which is bad for shares.

Now, usually when we see this kind of uncertainty, broad stock indices tend to sell off quite quickly. But US stocks have been surprisingly resilient. Yes, the VIX fear index did spike above 35 in the early days of the conflict, but volatility has since pulled back to February levels, with only a slight uptick more recently.

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McDonald’s Wave Analysis – 19 March 2026

- McDonald's broke support zone

- Likely to fall to support level 300.00

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EURNZD Wave Analysis – 19 March 2026

- EURNZD reversed from resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 1.9535

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