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⚠️ USA β€” FOMC Meeting Minutes at 19:00 GMT
πŸ—“ Economic Calendar at 2025/11/20 (GMT)

01:00 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Loan Prime Rate β€” Exp: 3.00% | 3.50% Actual: 3.00% | 3.50%

13:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ Non-Farm Employment Change β€” Exp: 53K Actual: 119K

13:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ Unemployment Rate β€” Exp: 4.3% Actual: 4.4%

13:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Average Hourly Earnings β€” Exp: 0.3% | 3.7% Actual: 0.2% | 3.8%

13:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Change in Private Payrolls β€” Exp: 62K Actual: 97K

13:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Philly Fed Manufacturing Index β€” Exp: 1.0 Actual: -1.7

13:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ Unemployment Claims β€” Exp: 223K Actual: 220K

13:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Continuing Claims Actual: 1974K

15:00 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Existing Home Sales β€” Exp: 4.08M Actual: 4.10M | 1.2%

21:45 πŸ‡³πŸ‡Ώ Trade Balance β€” Exp: -955M

23:30 πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ ⚑️ National Consumer Price Index

23:30 πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food β€” Exp: 3.0%


[Updated in real time]
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FxPro pinned Β«πŸ—“ Economic Calendar at 2025/11/20 (GMT) 01:00 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Loan Prime Rate β€” Exp: 3.00% | 3.50% Actual: 3.00% | 3.50% 13:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ Non-Farm Employment Change β€” Exp: 53K Actual: 119K 13:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ Unemployment Rate β€” Exp: 4.3% Actual: 4.4% 13:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Average…»
Crypto: still got the blues

The crypto market fluctuated slightly over the past day, ranging from a low of $3.02 trillion before the publication of the FOMC minutes and Nvidia's earnings, to a peak of $3.16 trillion in the middle of the Asian session. However, it has now fallen back to $3.13 trillion, remaining almost unchanged for the day. The cryptocurrency market remains pessimistic, reacting eagerly to negative news and quickly deflating on positive news.

Bitcoin is trading just above $92K at the start of the day on Thursday. It has been hovering around this level for the last four days, but the last ten days have seen lower local lows (falling to $88.5K at the end of the day on Wednesday) and local highs, indicating a very aggressive sell-off. In such conditions, it is only a matter of days before the bears find stop-out levels, triggering a self-sustaining avalanche of selloffs.

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⚠️ USA β€” Non-Farm Employment Change at 03:00 GMT

βœ”οΈ Prev: -4K

πŸ•’ Exp: 53K

🎯 Fact.: 119K πŸ“ˆ

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⚠️ USA β€” Unemployment Rate at 03:00 GMT

βœ”οΈ Prev: 4.3%

πŸ•’ Exp: 4.3%

🎯 Fact.: 4.4% πŸ“‰

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⚠️ USA β€” Unemployment Claims at 03:00 GMT

βœ”οΈ Prev: 228K

πŸ•’ Exp: 223K

🎯 Fact.: 220K πŸ“ˆ
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ US pre-market: Mostly positive πŸ“ˆ

Following the release of NFP data, positive dynamics prevail in the US stock market before the market opens.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are up +4.92%, and Broadcom (AVGO) shares are up +3.98%.

In the Technology Services sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) shares are up +3.65%, while Microsoft (MSFT) is up +1.27%.

In the Retail sector, Amazon (AMZN) shares are up +1.93%, while Walmart (WMT) is up +3.49%.

The growth of the largest technology and retail companies is supporting positive investor sentiment, which is creating additional capital inflows and contributing to the strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of further growth.
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The release of US employment data showed the economy added 119,000 jobs in September. This is twice the average forecast. The report alleviates concerns about a sharp economic slowdown before the shutdown, but this has already been factored in.
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πŸ—“ Economic Calendar at 2025/11/21 (GMT)

07:00 πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Retail Sales With Auto Fuel β€” Exp: 0.0% | 1.5% Actual: -1.1% | 0.2%

07:00 πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel β€” Exp: -0.2% | 2.5% Actual: -1.0% | 1.2%

08:15 πŸ‡«πŸ‡· Manufacturing PMI β€” Exp: 49.1 Actual: 47.8

08:15 πŸ‡«πŸ‡· Services PMI β€” Exp: 48.6 Actual: 50.8

08:15 πŸ‡«πŸ‡· PMI Composite β€” Exp: 48.1 Actual: 49.9

08:30 πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ Manufacturing PMI β€” Exp: 49.8 Actual: 48.4

08:30 πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ Services PMI β€” Exp: 54.0 Actual: 52.7

08:30 πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ PMI Composite β€” Exp: 53.5 Actual: 52.1

08:30 πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

09:00 πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί Manufacturing PMI β€” Exp: 50.1 Actual: 49.7

09:00 πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί Services PMI β€” Exp: 52.8 Actual: 53.1

09:00 πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί PMI Composite β€” Exp: 52.5 Actual: 52.4

09:30 πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Manufacturing PMI β€” Exp: 49.3 Actual: 50.2

09:30 πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Services PMI β€” Exp: 52.0 Actual: 50.5

09:30 πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ PMI Composite β€” Exp: 51.8 Actual: 50.5

12:40 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡­ SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel Speaks

13:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Retail Sales β€” Exp: -0.7% | -0.5% Actual: -0.7% | 0.2%

14:45 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Manufacturing PMI β€” Exp: 52.0 Actual: 51.9

14:45 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Services PMI β€” Exp: 54.6 Actual: 55.0

14:45 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ PMI Composite β€” Exp: 54.5 Actual: 54.8

15:00 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ UoM Consumer Sentiment β€” Exp: 50.3 Actual: 51.0


[Updated in real time]
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FxPro pinned Β«πŸ—“ Economic Calendar at 2025/11/21 (GMT) 07:00 πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Retail Sales With Auto Fuel β€” Exp: 0.0% | 1.5% Actual: -1.1% | 0.2% 07:00 πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel β€” Exp: -0.2% | 2.5% Actual: -1.0% | 1.2% 08:15 πŸ‡«πŸ‡· Manufacturing PMI β€” Exp: 49.1 Actual: 47.8…»
⚠️ Japan β€” National Consumer Price Index at 03:00 GMT

βœ”οΈ Prev: 2.9%

πŸ•’ Exp: 3.0%

🎯 Fact.: 3.0%
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The Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 52.4 in November, against the expected and previous 52.5. Values above 50 indicate economic expansion, but its pace slowed slightly, having a somewhat negative impact on EURUSD.
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Margin calls in crypto, but this is unlikely to be the bottom

The crypto market capitalisation plummeted by more than 9% to $2.82 trillion, reaching its lowest level since the end of April. This already appears to be a real liquidation of margin positions. The following technically necessary support line seems to be the $2.4 trillion area. The market found support here in early April 2025 and consolidated around it throughout April 2024.

Bitcoin is trading below $83K, and at its lowest point fell to $81K, starting the day at $88K. The timing and scale of the dynamics suggest a wave of margin calls in the early hours of Friday, with an attempt at stabilisation during the European session. The price of Bitcoin has returned to the stabilisation levels seen from late February to mid-April. The RSI index on the daily charts has fallen to 20, where it last stood before the massive rally in August 2023. Touching this level in mid-2022 was not far from the price's bottom (10% higher), but the reversal then took 6 months to materialise.

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