AUDUSD Wave Analysis – 22 April 2025

- AUDUSD reversed from the key resistance level 0.6400

- Likely to fall to support level 0.6300

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/04/23 (GMT)

07:15 🇫🇷 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 47.9 Actual: 48.2

07:15 🇫🇷 Services PMI — Exp: 47.7 Actual: 46.8

07:15 🇫🇷 PMI Composite — Exp: 47.8 Actual: 47.3

07:30 🇩🇪 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 47.5 Actual: 48.0

07:30 🇩🇪 Services PMI — Exp: 50.3 Actual: 48.8

07:30 🇩🇪 PMI Composite — Exp: 50. Actual: 49.7

08:00 🇪🇺 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 47.4 Actual: 48.7

08:00 🇪🇺 Services PMI — Exp: 50.4 Actual: 49.7

08:00 🇪🇺 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.3 Actual: 50.1

08:30 🇬🇧 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 44.0 Actual: 44.0

08:30 🇬🇧 Services PMI — Exp: 51.5 Actual: 48.9

08:30 🇬🇧 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.4 Actual: 48.2

10:30 🇬🇧 MPC Member Huw Pill Speaks

13:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Christopher J. Waller Speaks

13:45 🇺🇸 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 49.0 Actual: 50.7

13:45 🇺🇸 Services PMI — Exp: 52.8 Actual: 51.4

13:45 🇺🇸 PMI Composite Actual: 51.2

14:00 🇺🇸 New Home Sales — Exp: 682K Actual: 724K | 7.4%

14:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories — Exp: 1600K Actual: 244K

17:15 🇬🇧 ⚡️ BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Bitcoin Wave Analysis – 22 April 2025

- Bitcoin broke round resistance level 90000.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 95000.00

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The Rapid Assault on Crypto

The cryptocurrency market capitalisation surged by 6.4% in the past 24 hours, reaching $2.95 trillion — its highest level in seven weeks and a confident return to a key round figure. Global financial markets underpinned this rally. However, it’s worth noting that the market was already gaining ground on Monday, in defiance of declining stock indices.

Sentiment in the cryptocurrency space has swiftly shifted towards greed and is now steps away from extreme greed, with the relevant index climbing to 72, the highest since late January.

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Europe’s Growth Stalls Again as the Euro Enters Correction Mode

The Flash PMI estimates for the Eurozone show the complexity of the situation. Due to falling orders and falling business confidence, the composite index for the Eurozone was at 50.1 in April, struggling to cling to growth (above 50), down from 50.9 in March.

The Manufacturing PMI at 48.7 remains in contractionary territory, although its reading is the highest since January 2023 and notably above the expected 47.4. However, this upward move is threatened by the intensification of tariff wars since the start of April, which could cause a shock to the indices in the coming months.

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USDJPY Wave Analysis – 23 April 2025

- USDJPY reversed from the support area

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 144.65

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CADJPY Wave Analysis – 23 April 2025

- CADJPY reversed from strong support area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 104.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/04/24 (GMT)

08:00 🇩🇪 Ifo Business Climate — Exp: 85.1 Actual: 86.9

08:00 🇩🇪 IFO - Current Assessment — Exp: 85.4 Actual: 86.4

08:00 🇩🇪 IFO - Expectations — Exp: 85.0 Actual: 87.4

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 222K Actual: 222K

12:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1880K Actual: 1841K

12:30 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders — Exp: 2.1% | 0.3% Actual: 9.2% | 0.0%

13:25 🇬🇧 BOE Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli Speaks

14:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales — Exp: 4.14M Actual: 4.02M | -5.9%


[Updated in real time]

EURCHF Wave Analysis – 23 April 2025

- EURCHF broke the resistance area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9500

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Nikkei 225 Wave Analysis – 23 April 2025

Nikkei 225: ⬆️ Buy

- Nikkei 225 broke the resistance area

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Bitcoin consolidates before a new hike

The cryptocurrency market has corrected about 1.3% to $2.9 trillion from Wednesday's peak but has been steadily adding over 8.5% over the past seven days. The market is bouncing off the long-term key level of $2.5 trillion, which previously acted as a significant area of resistance. Capitalisation has surpassed the recent peak, marking the breakdown of the downward resistance of the last three months. This is an important signal of the market's willingness to move further upwards.

Bitcoin was climbing towards the $94,000 area during the week, more than 20k above the low point at the start of April. Reaching the recent highs aligned perfectly with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the initial bounce, fitting neatly into the pattern.

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US Indices: Already Not Extreme Fear

Financial markets are gradually pulling back from the shocks of recent weeks, including the tariff clash and attempts on the Fed's independence. While these stories promise to return more than once in sight, market participants are gradually realising that the point of maximum uncertainty is over.

Sentiment in the stock markets has moved into ‘fear’ territory, with the Fear and Greed Index at 27. This is 24 points above the lows of 8 April and fits the typical recovery pattern after a bottom.

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Gold: volatility at the top

Gold's 5% rally in the first 30 hours of the trading week, and touching the important round level of $3500, was followed by a steep fall to $3260 in the next 30 hours. After that, the price stabilised at $3340, close to the highs of the previous week.

Signs of a ‘head and shoulders’ pattern are forming on the charts. In case of a new decline under $3300, we may witness the acceleration of profit-taking. It may be a selloff after a dizzying rally, with the potential to go below $3000, mirroring early April’s growth. The long-term technical picture points to continued overheating and elevated correction potential.

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Dollar: Set to Bounce Back

The U.S. currency started the week by hitting three-year lows against a basket of key currencies, but soon closed the gap on DXY, rising from 97.7 to 99.7. However, the upward trend has not yet developed. Unresolved trade disputes between the US and China continue to undermine the US currency's position, creating impulses for a simultaneous sell-off in USD, equities and bonds.

We saw positive traction when markets received assurances that Trump would not fire Powell. But we also continue to note the Fed's rather hawkish rhetoric. Open Market Committee members are openly saying they will not rush to cut rates and are wary of the impact of tariffs on inflation. That said, interest rate futures give a more than 50% chance of four. That's a marked shift from 2-3 cuts a month earlier, which underlies the current dollar weakness. It's a worrying bet that Powell will have to pull the economy out of recession at the end of the year.

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#Shorts

#Gold: week-end forecast

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/04/25 (GMT)

06:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales With Auto Fuel — Exp: -0.3% | 1.8% Actual: 0.4% | 2.6%

06:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel — Exp: -0.3% | 2.3% Actual: 0.5% | 3.3%

08:00 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel Speaks

10:30 🇷🇺 ⚡️ Key bank rate — Exp: 21% Actual: 21%

12:30 🇨🇦 Retail Sales — Exp: -0.4% | -0.1% Actual: -0.4% | 0.5%

14:00 🇺🇸 UoM Consumer Sentiment — Exp: 50.8 Actual: 52.2

19:15 🇬🇧 MPC Member Megan Greene Speaks


[Updated in real time]