Dollar at the bottom: Tariffs ruin ‘exorbitant privilege’

This week turned out to be relatively quiet for the dollar. The dip at the end of last week was replaced by hovering near the bottom, i.e. around the 99 level on DXY, which corresponds to the lows of the last three years and slightly below the reversal area of the last two years. This situation suggests that we are only seeing a pause before further downside, not a reversal.

Since the beginning of April, an inverse correlation between the dollar dynamics and the value of promised tariffs has been evident. Rising trade barriers lead to a sharp sell-off in the US currency. Particularly disturbing is that both US stocks and bonds fall during these periods—a phenomenon common in emerging markets but rare in developed markets and almost never in America. This is an unambiguous signal from traders that trade wars are sharply curtailing the ‘exorbitant privilege’ the US has enjoyed for the past half-century.

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Indices: investors switched to buying on downturns despite extreme fear

US stock indices have been under pressure, with the Nasdaq 100 losing about 6% over the week and the S&P 500 losing about 4.5%. While this is a wide range in normal times, the amplitude of the current swings is almost three times smaller than the previous week.

Extreme fear continues to dominate the markets, but history shows that a return of the Fear and Greed Index to double-digit territory encourages investors to go into ‘buy on downturns’ mode, which maintains an upward bias even in the face of increased volatility and nervous trading patterns.

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Gold: epic rally

Gold delved deeper into the territory of all-time highs during the week, reaching a local top above $3350 per troy ounce on the spot market, representing a more than 4% gain from the start of the week. The price later retreated to the $3300 area.

Gold has been on the offensive since touching the 50-day moving average early last week. We view the latest rally as the completion of the correction from the late December spike. The upside potential, in our opinion, allows us to expect quotes above $3500.

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CADJPY Wave Analysis – 17 April 2025

- CADJPY reversed from key support level 102.00

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 104.00

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EURCAD Wave Analysis – 17 April 2025

- EURCAD reversed from long-term resistance level 1.5840

- Likely to fall to support level 1.5400

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Oil rebound, not yet a trend reversal

Oil ended the week up over 4%, continuing the rebound that began on 9 April following a strong rally due to tariff postponement. Prices managed to recover from 4-year lows by more than 16%, which is impressive and brings the market closer to bullish territory. However, the situation currently appears more like a rebound before a possible further decline than a reliable reversal.

Brent remains below the key level of $71, which has served as strong support for two years and may now become equally strong resistance. WTI is similarly holding below $66, where buying has stabilised the market for almost four consecutive years, preventing it from consolidating below this level.

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Pro News Video: Gold Explodes Past All-Time Highs as Dollar Crumbles

Markets are on edge: gold is smashing through all-time highs, the dollar is teetering under the weight of trade tensions, and crypto is losing steam just shy of a breakout. In this week’s Pro News Weekly, we break down the Fed’s tough talk, the stock market’s fear-driven dips, and whether Bitcoin can hold its ground—or if $3,500 gold is the real headline. Like and subscribe for all the latest updates.

00:10 Dollar: Tariffs Ruin ‘Exorbitant Privilege’

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Microsoft Wave Analysis – 18 April 2025

- Microsoft falling inside impulse wave 5

- Likely to test support level 360.00

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EURNZD Wave Analysis – 18 April 2025

- EURNZD reversed from support level 1.9100

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.9400

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NFLX Wave Analysis – 18 April 2025

- NFLX broke weekly down channel

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1000.00

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Johnson & Johnson Wave Analysis – 18 April 2025

Johnson & Johnson: ⬆️ Buy

- Johnson & Johnson rising inside weekly price range

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/04/21 (GMT)

01:00 🇨🇳 Loan Prime Rate — Exp: 3.10% | 3.60% Actual: 3.10% | 3.60%

22:45 🇳🇿 Trade Balance — Exp: 80M


[Updated in real time]

Bitcoin Starts Breaking Resistance

The crypto market has gained 2% over the past 24 hours, reaching $2.75 trillion. This marks a surge to the highest levels in three and a half weeks and an attempt to break upwards from a prolonged consolidation. At this stage, attention is focused on top-tier coins — BTC, ETH, XRP, and BNB — all gaining over 2%. However, among slightly smaller-cap coins, performance remains quite varied.

Bitcoin jumped to $87,500 on Monday, testing the late March highs. The leading cryptocurrency managed to bounce off the 50-day moving average, around which it had been hovering for the past week and a half. A solid close above the $88,000 area would signal a break in the downtrend and a return to levels above the 200-day moving average.

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The Dollar Repeats Its Bearish Pattern of the 1980s and 2000s

After four consecutive weeks of decline, the dollar index started the new Monday by continuing its move into the territory of three-year lows. Once again, a worrying sign is that this dollar weakness is not translating into buying in stocks or bonds — their indices are also losing ground.

From a technical standpoint, the dollar index has broken through the 161.8% level of the initial impulse from the highs at the start of the year to a significant pause in early March. The DXY received little to no support around the 99–100 area, which had triggered reversals over the past two years.

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What is next: Euro Area PMI and US Durable Goods Orders

The following economic data events are worth paying attention to in the new week.

Wednesday will see the release of preliminary PMI estimates for April, which could have a noticeable impact on sentiment on the Euro and European equities. A strong recovery in business activity began in December but could be shattered by tariff fears, as was the case with the ZEW reading for Germany in the outgoing week.

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USDJPY Wave Analysis – 21 April 2025

- USDJPY broke support area

- Likely to fall to support level 139.55

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EURUSD Wave Analysis – 21 April 2025

- EURUSD broke the resistance area

- Likely to test resistance level 1.1600

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/04/22 (GMT)

13:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Philip N. Jefferson Speaks

14:00 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Natural Gas Wave Analysis – 21 April 2025

Natural gas: ⬇️ Sell

Natural gas broke support area

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