Gold Wave Analysis – 16 April 2025

- Gold broke resistance zone

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 3300.00

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Tariff news and resistance zone put pressure on crypto

The crypto market capitalisation fell by 2.6% in the last 24 hours, dropping to $2.63 trillion. The selling pressure intensified amid announcements that the US may raise duties on Chinese goods to 245%. This news hit fertile ground as the market had already reached the levels of the last consolidation, and after the recent rebound, a correction was looming.

Bitcoin is losing with the market, facing resistance in the form of a cluster of 50- and 200-day moving averages. The importance of these levels suggests some pause in the move, but the chances of a rebound remain high. The low point in early April was more than 30% below historical peaks, making current levels attractive to long-term buyers.

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US sales jump gives USD relief, but is driven by fears

US Total retail sales rose 1.4% in March, beating the expected 1.3% after rising 0.2% a month earlier. On an annualised basis, sales rose 4.4%, the fastest pace since December 2023, which contrasted with the slowdown in inflation to 2.4% y/y.

The acceleration in American spending can be attributed to a desire to stock up on goods ahead of a possible price hike triggered by the tariffs announced by Trump last month.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/04/17 (GMT)

01:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Employment Change — Exp: 39.8K Actual: 32.2K

01:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.2% Actual: 4.1%

01:30 🇦🇺 Part-Time Employment Change Actual: 15.0K | 17.2K

12:15 🇪🇺 ⚡️ ECB Interest Rate Decision — Exp: 2.40% Actual: 2.40%

12:15 🇪🇺 Deposit Facility Rate — Exp: 2.25% Actual: 2.25%

12:15 🇪🇺 Marginal lending facility Actual: 2.65%

12:15 🇪🇺 ⚡️ Monetary Policy Statement

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 225K Actual: 215K

12:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1870K Actual: 1885K

12:30 🇺🇸 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index — Exp: 2.2 Actual: -26.4

12:30 🇺🇸 Building Permits — Exp: 1450K Actual: 1482K | 1.6%

12:30 🇺🇸 Housing Starts — Exp: 1420K Actual: 1324K | -11.4%

12:45 🇪🇺 ⚡️ ECB Press Conference

15:45 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Michael S. Barr Speaks

23:30 🇯🇵 ⚡️ National Consumer Price Index

23:30 🇯🇵 National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food — Exp: 3.2%


[Updated in real time]

AUDCAD Wave Analysis – 16 April 2025

- AUDCAD reversed from resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 0.8700

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Apple Wave Analysis – 16 April 2025

- Apple reversed from resistance level 210.00

- Likely to fall to support level 190.00

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Crypto market rests after recovery

Over the past seven days, the cryptocurrency market went from falling to $2.5 trillion to rising to $2.71 trillion but later corrected to the $2.65 trillion area. The recovery momentum lost strength near the previous consolidation zone. The market has so far failed to overcome the descending resistance line formed from the peak on the US Presidential Inauguration Day.

The sentiment index is gradually moving out of the ‘extreme fear’ zone and consolidating in the ‘fear’ area. This is a good signal that the correction may be over, but there are still not enough catalysts for a full-fledged rally.

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Dow Jones Wave Analysis – 16 April 2025

Dow Jones: ⬇️ Sell

- Dow Jones reversed from the resistance zone

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WTI crude oil Wave Analysis – 17 April 2025

WTI crude oil: ⬆️ Buy

- WTI crude oil reversed from key support level 55,00

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Dollar at the bottom: Tariffs ruin ‘exorbitant privilege’

This week turned out to be relatively quiet for the dollar. The dip at the end of last week was replaced by hovering near the bottom, i.e. around the 99 level on DXY, which corresponds to the lows of the last three years and slightly below the reversal area of the last two years. This situation suggests that we are only seeing a pause before further downside, not a reversal.

Since the beginning of April, an inverse correlation between the dollar dynamics and the value of promised tariffs has been evident. Rising trade barriers lead to a sharp sell-off in the US currency. Particularly disturbing is that both US stocks and bonds fall during these periods—a phenomenon common in emerging markets but rare in developed markets and almost never in America. This is an unambiguous signal from traders that trade wars are sharply curtailing the ‘exorbitant privilege’ the US has enjoyed for the past half-century.

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Indices: investors switched to buying on downturns despite extreme fear

US stock indices have been under pressure, with the Nasdaq 100 losing about 6% over the week and the S&P 500 losing about 4.5%. While this is a wide range in normal times, the amplitude of the current swings is almost three times smaller than the previous week.

Extreme fear continues to dominate the markets, but history shows that a return of the Fear and Greed Index to double-digit territory encourages investors to go into ‘buy on downturns’ mode, which maintains an upward bias even in the face of increased volatility and nervous trading patterns.

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Gold: epic rally

Gold delved deeper into the territory of all-time highs during the week, reaching a local top above $3350 per troy ounce on the spot market, representing a more than 4% gain from the start of the week. The price later retreated to the $3300 area.

Gold has been on the offensive since touching the 50-day moving average early last week. We view the latest rally as the completion of the correction from the late December spike. The upside potential, in our opinion, allows us to expect quotes above $3500.

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CADJPY Wave Analysis – 17 April 2025

- CADJPY reversed from key support level 102.00

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 104.00

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EURCAD Wave Analysis – 17 April 2025

- EURCAD reversed from long-term resistance level 1.5840

- Likely to fall to support level 1.5400

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Oil rebound, not yet a trend reversal

Oil ended the week up over 4%, continuing the rebound that began on 9 April following a strong rally due to tariff postponement. Prices managed to recover from 4-year lows by more than 16%, which is impressive and brings the market closer to bullish territory. However, the situation currently appears more like a rebound before a possible further decline than a reliable reversal.

Brent remains below the key level of $71, which has served as strong support for two years and may now become equally strong resistance. WTI is similarly holding below $66, where buying has stabilised the market for almost four consecutive years, preventing it from consolidating below this level.

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Pro News Video: Gold Explodes Past All-Time Highs as Dollar Crumbles

Markets are on edge: gold is smashing through all-time highs, the dollar is teetering under the weight of trade tensions, and crypto is losing steam just shy of a breakout. In this week’s Pro News Weekly, we break down the Fed’s tough talk, the stock market’s fear-driven dips, and whether Bitcoin can hold its ground—or if $3,500 gold is the real headline. Like and subscribe for all the latest updates.

00:10 Dollar: Tariffs Ruin ‘Exorbitant Privilege’

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Microsoft Wave Analysis – 18 April 2025

- Microsoft falling inside impulse wave 5

- Likely to test support level 360.00

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EURNZD Wave Analysis – 18 April 2025

- EURNZD reversed from support level 1.9100

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.9400

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NFLX Wave Analysis – 18 April 2025

- NFLX broke weekly down channel

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1000.00

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